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Curious Canary

The chances of bouncing straight back to the PL

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[quote user="Bob"]I''m wondering how many teams have got 138 points in a season 😳[/quote]

Well that''s obvious mate - both Newcastle and Villa do every year without fail because they''re MASSIVE clubs* 😉

*in Victorian times

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Well the odds are not great are they but as has been posted on here many times, let''s see where we are about 10 or 12 games in. We will know at that point whether we sit in the top 6 (and likely therefore statistically not to vary too much from the mean for the remainder of the season) or just outside for example.

If we carry on like Saturday with that kind of performance level you would have to remain extremely confident and hopeful. But bigger tests to come. Would love it if we can be up there, say, by the mid / end of November

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I think as long as we get a new number 9 of some quality, we are as well set as we could be to bounce straight back up. We have numerous attacking options in the midfield and finally a top quality centre half to organise the back line and a competitive fight for the number 1 spot. Add in the batch of youngsters we are finally ready to blood and there is so much quality there that by law of averages, some of it should come off.

I don''t care much about them stats from the OP as when you think about the likes of the 11 points Derby side or Portsmouth in free fall amongst many sides that came down with a bump, they skew the stats.

We all know it''s not a foregone conclusion as there''s some good sides and players at this level and on their day anyone can beat anyone but I''m confident too.

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[quote user="Curious Canary"]In 22 seasons of the Premier League there have been 69 relegations, involving 36 clubs (not including Wimbledon).

Of those 69 there have been:

- 20 instances of promotion back at the first attempt

- 7 have required 2 seasons

- 2 have required 3 seasons

- 2 have required 4 seasons

- 13 have required between 5 and 9 seasons

- 1 required 15 seasons

- 24 clubs which were once in the PL are still trying to get back (such as Ipswich 14 years, Derby 8 years, Leeds 12 years, Nottingham Forest 17 years, Bradford & Coventry 15 years, Sheffield Wednesday 16 years).

Norwich has been relegated 3 times before.

It only took only one season to get back via the play-offs in 2015 but the other two promotions took 6 years and 9 years.

Aston Villa has not been relegated from the PL before.

They were relegated from the old First Division in 1986/87.

They got promotion back at the first attempt.

Newcastle was relegated from the PL in 2008/09.

They got promotion back at the first attempt.

Whichever way you look at it Newcastle and Aston Villa are much bigger clubs than Norwich.

Yes but what about the parachute payments, I hear you ask?

Newcastle and Villa get them too (so will next seasons relegated clubs).

And there must have been some in previous seasons but it doesn’t seem to have done much good to the likes of QPR, Fulham, Cardiff, Reading, Wigan etc.

Those that think that it’s going to be easy to get back up to the PL are confusing “hope” with “think”.

Probably the same people who thought that we would not get relegated.

The odds for Norwich promotion are about 11 to 4 according to the bookies, that’s a probability of 27%.

There is every chance that promotion could take 4 or 5 years.[/quote]

Yes, but what is the point of promotion at all if you are not going to build a proper EPL outfit as soon as it is achieved? Delia and Wynnie do not have the money and never will if they are going to keep it all in the family.

As soon as promotion is achieved you need to spend at least £70 million on 5 players in order to have a chance of staying up with a good manager, which Alex Neil is.

But with the Canary Board on its current trajectory, Alex Neil is not going to get that amount of cash support to deliver EPL football for more than one season.

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I''m confused Big Vince.
Correct me if i''m wrong but when we stayed up under Lambert, I''m not sure we spent anywhere near £70 million.
And then, when we stayed up under Hughton, I still don''t think we spent anywhere near £70 million.
Then, when we finally started to splash the cash, I''m fairly sure we got relegated.
[:D]

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I can answer this one for you, hogesar.Big Vince is talking about last season, because that''s the only season that fits his argument.

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[quote user="hogesar"]I''m confused Big Vince.
Correct me if i''m wrong but when we stayed up under Lambert, I''m not sure we spent anywhere near £70 million.
And then, when we stayed up under Hughton, I still don''t think we spent anywhere near £70 million.
Then, when we finally started to splash the cash, I''m fairly sure we got relegated.
[:D]
[/quote]

Big Vince is talking about staying up for the long term not just clinging on for one, two or three seasons.

To get things into perspective, Big Vince is talking about doing a Man C with this club.

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[quote user="Big Vince"][quote user="hogesar"]I''m confused Big Vince.
Correct me if i''m wrong but when we stayed up under Lambert, I''m not sure we spent anywhere near £70 million.
And then, when we stayed up under Hughton, I still don''t think we spent anywhere near £70 million.
Then, when we finally started to splash the cash, I''m fairly sure we got relegated.
[:D]
[/quote]

Big Vince is talking about staying up for the long term not just clinging on for one, two or three seasons.

To get things into perspective, Big Vince is talking about doing a Man C with this club.[/quote]Big Vince is referring to himself in the third person and is therefore failing at life. You really need to go back to troll school mate, you are proper useless.

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Hi Curious,
I know you''re probably busy being miserable because Daryl Murphy signed for Newcastle and you replaced him with Leon f*cking Best (in name only, by the way), but just wanted to check you were OK as you''ve not posted recently, and it seems to coincide with us doing well.
All the best,
xx

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As my Italian friend would say"we go uppa da league, we come downa da leaguewe getta da bigga da moneywe are da bigga boys againsowe go uppa da league, we come downa da leaguewe getta da bigga da money ............................. "

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[quote user="Crafty Canary"]Also interesting that the survey showed that the majority of fans surveyed are unhappy or very unhappy with the board of directors whilst generally supportive of the manager and team. Seems that it is happy clappers regarding the team and nappy crappers regarding the board. Given the abuse hurled at dissenters on this forum I was expecting a happy clapper landslide all round.[/quote]

Yes, the manager should stay but the Board unquestionably should go.

The issue is not about the bouncing back to the EPL, but what are the Board going to do when they get there? Are they going to continue to follow the Burnley model of getting promoted but then not spending anything to stay up? Or are the owners going to sell out to someone who can build a proper and sustainable EPL club?

The current financial model is simply not workable in the EPL and with Russell Martin & Co in defence will lead to certain relegation, again.

If the Board thinks that signing the likes of Dorrans and Jarvis will lead to EPL survival, they are sadly misguided.

It is high time for a dose of honesty from this Board. They should come out and state that EPL football is not deliverable as long as the current ownership remains unchanged.

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[quote user="Its Character Forming"]Curious not posting when we''ve won 4 in a row? Who''d have guessed.[/quote]Seen very little of Keith Scott recently too. Or CanaryOne. Or Dean Coney''s Boots. Seems like only pete is truly committed to his existential despair.

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[quote user="Feedthewolf"][quote user="Its Character Forming"]Curious not posting when we''ve won 4 in a row? Who''d have guessed.[/quote]Seen very little of Keith Scott recently too. Or CanaryOne. Or Dean Coney''s Boots. Seems like only pete is truly committed to his existential despair.[/quote]You forgot Huckerbys Boots Matt.

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[quote user="Feedthewolf"][quote user="Its Character Forming"]Curious not posting when we''ve won 4 in a row? Who''d have guessed.[/quote]
Seen very little of Keith Scott recently too. Or CanaryOne. Or Dean Coney''s Boots. Seems like only pete is truly committed to his existential despair.
[/quote]

 

And long may it continue...

 

You know, whenever I see the user name Keith Scott it makes me smile, because he was such a cart-horse of a striker, it shows how far we have come.  He was fairly strong, but slow and poor at finishing and ball control, offering nothing else to the team.  He''s the sort of player they have at 1p5wich and happily we''ve not had anyone like him for years. I can vividly remember a (rare) occasion when Scott scored, and before he''d been getting a bit of abuse from some in the Barclay end (which I don''t agree with, although I could understand because he was so useless).  His "celebration" stopped short of sticking 2 fingers up at the home fans, but you could tell from his expression he''d have liked to... I am so glad those days are gone.

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I agree with all of that ICT, but things can often be seen differently.

I was at St. Andrews, Brum v. NCFC, once with a Spurs supporting friend when Scott was in the team.

My friend said that that centre-forward of yours looks useful.

I replied that he was nothing but a carthorse.

Cue: Scott headed the winning goal ( a header)and my friend said that Spurs should sign him.

We were right about that one. How far we have come, it could be Leon Best that we are pinning our hopes on.

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Hello again.

Good news …the chance of bouncing back to the PL has improved since the start of the season.

It’s a decent start to what could turn out to be an unpredictable season.

Clearly a number of teams are under preforming such as Aston Villa, Derby and Sheffield W.

We haven’t played Villa or Derby but we couldn’t beat Wednesday (something that Burton, Leeds and Birmingham have done).

Here we are in second place after 8 games, yet we have only managed to beat one team in the top half of the table, and they are in 12th.

And although we won against Bristol C, Cardiff and Wigan personally I don’t think that we played that well. The Forest win was a good one.

The big question is can we play better if the opposition is better, we often do and we need to.

Some say that playing well doesn’t matter, it’s the result that counts.

I say that it’s impossible to keep winning if you don’t play well.

Would you believe that the bookmakers have us a best price 8/11 to go up.

That’s a 58% probability.

Next up a simple task of thrashing Burton (the third worst team in the league).

Looks like a cake walk then.

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