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Curious Canary

The chances of bouncing straight back to the PL

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In 22 seasons of the Premier League there have been 69 relegations, involving 36 clubs (not including Wimbledon).

Of those 69 there have been:

- 20 instances of promotion back at the first attempt

- 7 have required 2 seasons

- 2 have required 3 seasons

- 2 have required 4 seasons

- 13 have required between 5 and 9 seasons

- 1 required 15 seasons

- 24 clubs which were once in the PL are still trying to get back (such as Ipswich 14 years, Derby 8 years, Leeds 12 years, Nottingham Forest 17 years, Bradford & Coventry 15 years, Sheffield Wednesday 16 years).

Norwich has been relegated 3 times before.

It only took only one season to get back via the play-offs in 2015 but the other two promotions took 6 years and 9 years.

Aston Villa has not been relegated from the PL before.

They were relegated from the old First Division in 1986/87.

They got promotion back at the first attempt.

Newcastle was relegated from the PL in 2008/09.

They got promotion back at the first attempt.

Whichever way you look at it Newcastle and Aston Villa are much bigger clubs than Norwich.

Yes but what about the parachute payments, I hear you ask?

Newcastle and Villa get them too (so will next seasons relegated clubs).

And there must have been some in previous seasons but it doesn’t seem to have done much good to the likes of QPR, Fulham, Cardiff, Reading, Wigan etc.

Those that think that it’s going to be easy to get back up to the PL are confusing “hope” with “think”.

Probably the same people who thought that we would not get relegated.

The odds for Norwich promotion are about 11 to 4 according to the bookies, that’s a probability of 27%.

There is every chance that promotion could take 4 or 5 years.

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[quote user="TCCANARY"]Has anyone seen a post where someone says it will be easy to get promoted?[/quote]

TC, it''s easy to get promoted if you average more than two points per game. ✔

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Ignoring the rest of your miserable, boring post that''s wrong in so many places, it''s also wrong in that a quick look has us typically 9/4 to get promoted, second favourites behind Newcastle.

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With our lack of extra striking power, and the performance of Jerome pre-season, I would rate our chances fairly low.

We needed a striker or two, plus a central defender, and none has happened so far.

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[quote user="TCCANARY"]Has anyone seen a post where someone says it will be easy to get promoted?[/quote]

Suggest you read today’s Pink Un missive.

Norwich City will bounce straight back to the Premier League

“I think they are more than capable of winning one of the two automatic promotion places. And that’s not my heart ruling my head.

Why am I so confident of promotion? Even though, until yesterday, it had been a quiet transfer window for Alex Neil, he has, along with Newcastle, the strongest squad in the Championship, one that is packed with invaluable experience.”

Iwan Roberts is confident of promotion and Norwich City will bounce straight back to the Premier League.

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[quote user="hogesar"]Ignoring the rest of your miserable, boring post that''s wrong in so many places, it''s also wrong in that a quick look has us typically 9/4 to get promoted, second favourites behind Newcastle.[/quote]

Put your money where your mouth is.

How much would you like on at 9 to 4?

If there are mistakes in the stats and there may be, I would be grateful if you could point them out.

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[quote user="Hoola Han Solo"]What are the chances of you writing anything positive?[/quote]

It is neither positive nor negative, it is factual.

Don’t blame the messenger.

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[quote user="Curious Canary"][quote user="hogesar"]Ignoring the rest of your miserable, boring post that''s wrong in so many places, it''s also wrong in that a quick look has us typically 9/4 to get promoted, second favourites behind Newcastle.[/quote]

Put your money where your mouth is.

How much would you like on at 9 to 4?

If there are mistakes in the stats and there may be, I would be grateful if you could point them out.[/quote]
I''ve already got money on us to get promoted, at those odds.
And seeing your reply above - you''ve made your entire post based on an ex-pro saying we''re more than capable of getting promoted.

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[quote user="Curious Canary"][quote user="TCCANARY"]Has anyone seen a post where someone says it will be easy to get promoted?[/quote] Suggest you read today’s Pink Un missive. Norwich City will bounce straight back to the Premier League “I think they are more than capable of winning one of the two automatic promotion places. And that’s not my heart ruling my head. Why am I so confident of promotion? Even though, until yesterday, it had been a quiet transfer window for Alex Neil, he has, along with Newcastle, the strongest squad in the Championship, one that is packed with invaluable experience.” Iwan Roberts is confident of promotion and Norwich City will bounce straight back to the Premier League.[/quote]

 

OK, I read it. At no time does he use the word ''easy''.

 

Do you want to try again?

 

 

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In defence of Curious, the survey on the front page states that 30% of 1500 replies backed City to go up as Champions or Runners up. That''s quite a few people, 450 by my reckoning! Ihope they are right but personally can''t see it happening.

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Also interesting that the survey showed that the majority of fans surveyed are unhappy or very unhappy with the board of directors whilst generally supportive of the manager and team. Seems that it is happy clappers regarding the team and nappy crappers regarding the board. Given the abuse hurled at dissenters on this forum I was expecting a happy clapper landslide all round.

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Why does it have to turn into an argument, it was only a bunch of statistics based upon a situation whereby the goalposts seem to change year in year out in any case.

The chances of us rebounding again lie in factors at Carrow Road.

The squad is strong, albeit the desperate and over-riding need for a class act in the striking department.

The finances are sufficiently sound, despite question marks held against them at various times during the course of the Summer.

The manager has to be a doubt for although he has shown enough in the past to suggest that he can pull it off again there have to be questions marks against him based upon some of the inconsistencies of last season and the dismal run down towards relegation.

All in all though the omens are quite good, as good if not better than most of our rivals and firmly justify our position amongst the favourites.

That this is football, that this will be Championship football and that situations can change overnight in any case suggests that nothing can be taken for granted .. but even most Toon fans seem aware of this.

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I''ll go for 1 in 8 (3/24)

What are the chances of going up, if we play kids? (Alan Hansen reference, not if our opposition are children...)

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Interesting - a number of my work colleagues and friends are Newcastle fans and they are incredibly pessimistic of their chance of promotion. I know of at least two people who have decided to bet on them not making the top six.

Seems it''s not just NCFC who have miserable fans!

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These statistics include clubs like QPR and Cardiff who have been appallingly run. I would be interested to see the statistics on clubs who have come down and like us, kept the majority of their squad in place.

Relegation often means a huge amount of uncertainty and change, and while there''s more change this year at boardroom level, our management and playing staff have not had wholesale changes.

As well as that, parachute payments are higher than ever before, and it doesn''t take a genius to see that the clubs getting relegated have far more money than in most of the years which have produced these statistics.

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It is important to have championship experience and getting out of this league helps. But we saw with our promotion season you need at least 1-2 players firing on all cylinders through the season. Cam jam did, grabban did, Johnson did and howson still got 9 goals.

AN is right two more strikers are needed. We need goals naismith, Pritchard, hoops will add to that. But as discussed such a hard league to get out of. I think a prediction can be made after the closin of the window. I do not want a grabban situation again and hope we get the strikers in ASAP as a good start can help bed a few things in.

Cannot believe the first game is tomorrow, no idea how it will go but I do not think we will be as dominate in games as we were the season we got promoted. Every other club has improved, so we have to excel and prove we want to get out of this division by being professional, patient, increase the level of quality and show deadly finishing when required.

Let''s see how we feel after the first game.

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[quote user="smooth"]Let''s see how we feel after the first game.[/quote]Lose and we''ll feel rough smooth. [:)]

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TCCANARY it was you that made the comment

“Has anyone seen a post where someone says it will be easy to get promoted?”

I didn’t mention the word “easy”, no idea why you are obsessing about it.

There are only two options either we go up or we don’t.

Iwan Roberts, hogesar, and probably about a third of city fans, presumably including you, think we will go up.

Whether it’s “easy” or not is irrelevant.

Are you “so confident” of promotion.

If your confidence level its better than 27% best you get to the bookies and lump on.

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[quote user="Curious Canary"]TCCANARY it was you that made the comment “Has anyone seen a post where someone says it will be easy to get promoted?” I didn’t mention the word “easy”, no idea why you are obsessing about it. There are only two options either we go up or we don’t. Iwan Roberts, hogesar, and probably about a third of city fans, presumably including you, think we will go up. Whether it’s “easy” or not is irrelevant. Are you “so confident” of promotion. If your confidence level its better than 27% best you get to the bookies and lump on.[/quote]

 

"Those that think that it’s going to be easy to get back up to the PL are confusing “hope” with “think”. 
Probably the same people who thought that we would not get relegated. "

 

You mentioned it on page one.

 

 

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One team is likely to take the division by the scruff of the neck - why not us? If we were Rotherham supporters etc that would probably be blind optimism, but i think expecting a season of mediocrity would be unrealistic - we have a great squad, great manager, and are firmly proven in this division. It''s all about working hard now and earning it 👍

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Saturday showed just how dominant City can be when the players are up for it, but the key will be doing it game after game 45 more times. Newcastle and Villa showed the opposite effect to their cost. Sheffield Wednesday will be a real test and if we win that, I''ll be a lot more confident about our chances.

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TCCANARY “You mentioned it on page one.”

OK so I did.

Should have said “those who are confident we will get back up this season…”

But it’s just playing with words.

It must have been obvious that the point of the posting was to look at the statistical evidence and to consider the CHANCES of bouncing straight back in terms of PROBABILITY.

But of course a lot of people don’t think like that. They only think in black and white!

Unless you put a number on “confident” or “easy” it’s fairly meaningless. That’s the point. Talk is cheap.

You might think that we will get promotion this season but anyone saying that it is certain must be stupid.

And then it seems that anyone who doesn’t express certainty and faith seems to be regarded by some as negative.

Last season from fairly early on there were only 6 or 7 teams with a realistic chance of going down.

Early season it was 50-50, in January it was odds on we would go down.

This season based on what we know now there are around 14 teams that have realistic chances of going up (some more than others).

We have got off to a good start. We are in a better position with three points on the board.

But there’s 98% of the season to go and it’s unlikely that we end up with 138 points.

As of now the probability is that we won’t go up, that doesn’t mean you stop trying.

On the contrary it means making even effort to maximise the chances.

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[quote user="Curious Canary"]TCCANARY “You mentioned it on page one.” OK so I did. Should have said “those who are confident we will get back up this season…” But it’s just playing with words. It must have been obvious that the point of the posting was to look at the statistical evidence and to consider the CHANCES of bouncing straight back in terms of PROBABILITY. But of course a lot of people don’t think like that. They only think in black and white! Unless you put a number on “confident” or “easy” it’s fairly meaningless. That’s the point. Talk is cheap. You might think that we will get promotion this season but anyone saying that it is certain must be stupid. And then it seems that anyone who doesn’t express certainty and faith seems to be regarded by some as negative. Last season from fairly early on there were only 6 or 7 teams with a realistic chance of going down. Early season it was 50-50, in January it was odds on we would go down. This season based on what we know now there are around 14 teams that have realistic chances of going up (some more than others). We have got off to a good start. We are in a better position with three points on the board. But there’s 98% of the season to go and it’s unlikely that we end up with 138 points. As of now the probability is that we won’t go up, that doesn’t mean you stop trying. On the contrary it means making even effort to maximise the chances.[/quote]

 

Has anyone seen a post where someone says it''s certain that we''ll to get promoted?

 

 

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[quote user="Curious Canary"]TCCANARY “You mentioned it on page one.”

OK so I did.

Should have said “those who are confident we will get back up this season…”

But it’s just playing with words.

It must have been obvious that the point of the posting was to look at the statistical evidence and to consider the CHANCES of bouncing straight back in terms of PROBABILITY.

But of course a lot of people don’t think like that. They only think in black and white!

Unless you put a number on “confident” or “easy” it’s fairly meaningless. That’s the point. Talk is cheap.

You might think that we will get promotion this season but anyone saying that it is certain must be stupid.

And then it seems that anyone who doesn’t express certainty and faith seems to be regarded by some as negative.

Last season from fairly early on there were only 6 or 7 teams with a realistic chance of going down.

Early season it was 50-50, in January it was odds on we would go down.

This season based on what we know now there are around 14 teams that have realistic chances of going up (some more than others).

We have got off to a good start. We are in a better position with three points on the board.

But there’s 98% of the season to go and it’s unlikely that we end up with 138 points.

As of now the probability is that we won’t go up, that doesn’t mean you stop trying.

On the contrary it means making even effort to maximise the chances.[/quote]So if I say "confident" = 7 and "easy" = 46.7%, does that make my opinions meaningful?Can you find me even one poster who has said, at any point, that we are certain to get promoted? You can''t, therefore the second sentence is based on the dancing sheep in your head rather than anything grounded in reality.What do we know now? Who are the ''around 14'' teams with ''realistic chances'' of going up? Thanks for the scoop.How unlikely? What''s the statistical probability of us ending up with 138 points?Who said we should stop trying after one game?Enjoy dwelling upon your rainbow of facepalm.

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