Why Naismith plays (and Redmond doesn't)

[hogesar 9,618]

Completely agree ZLF

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

Vanwink,

Trying to teach Redmond to adopt sensible defensive positions and hold certain strategic shapes in certain situations is I suspect far more difficult - and any failure far more likely to be exploited by the opposition - than trying to teach him to work around, beyond and into the channels as a number 10.

Failure to do all elements of the 10 role would not negate his attacking threat, nor should it overly compromise defensive team shape (the classic eight block does not require the 10 for example), so his talents are not negated at 10, but his tactical liabilities are amortised.

Lapps, I am a huge fan of Wes and would always like to have him in my side, however he doesn''t naturally shoot when presented with opportunities, he is not a natural scorer at the top level - lacking the selfish hunger to even want to score himself sometimes - plus he offers no threat behind, nor does he really drift wide into channels and stretch lines between full back and centre back.

In short, At the top level he creates the problem, but does not then really exploit it. He is a beautifully handled dagger with a blunt blade.

Parma

-----------------------------------------------------------

Sorry, Zip not Lapps...

You have touched on the reality. You certainly could drop Mbokani and Naismith - and a case could be made for doing so - though as Morty tried to convey on another thread, then what? Frustration and an opinion are fine, but what are the follow-through implications of that view/reaction/analysis?

In the case of removing Mbokani / Naismith we can replace the 9 with Jerome/Bamford/Lafferty.

Jerome offers more channel running and stretches defences more. He is a good structural player for possession-based football (Grabban did something similar), though Jerome is not prolific at the top level and it can be observed that hard work and channel-running take something away from penalty-box goalscoring. Redmobd might well complement him from 10 though and this would be a valid exchange for Mbokani/Naismith. RealisticallyStill no Wes in that formation however.

We can make an obvious compare-and-contrast with Defoe yesterday, who plays a limited role in a limited, narrowly defined tactical plan. The role is lots of chasing diagonal balls flat over central defenders, then hoping for a lucky break or a mistake. It is massively more successful if you are NOT in top or inferior to your opposition who attacks you and presses players higher. Your passes are low percentage, but a sharp striker can generate nervousness and has a predator''s eye for hesitation or an awkward bouncing ball. We don''t have that.

We have what we have and I''m afraid every loss or poor performance has an inversely proportional benefit to any Norwich player that doesn''t play.

I personally feel that Norwich are well suited to a hard running, stretching forward a'' la Jerome or Grabban, though there must then be an understanding that many goals must then come from elsewhere. Redmond is our only real threat in behind, so a combination of him and Jerome could be fine in that respect. Equally you could pass less, sit deeper, hold a defensive structural shape and just bang balls at Mbokani and have Redmond run off him time and again. You have two in central midfield like this though and if you lose that area you lose the game (because Jerome works harder and stretches defences more, this acts as something of a defensive weapon too, occupying more players than the static Mbokani)

I have however always felt that Norwich would have to do something left-field to survive and thrive regularly in the top league, so creative solutions whereby Wes plays at 10, Redmond as a false 9 with 11 behind the ball, the midfield packed with tight-space passing ball retainers and fast-breaking counters or even flat long diagonals for Redmond to chase a'' la Defoe. Crosses must then be drilled hard, low, flat and early behind defences, but we would be mostly playing on the counter. Under pressure there will be no hold up play, nor will we will anything aerially, so that is an issue.

Playing attacking players wide exposes our full backs, who were high and over-attacking for much of the season leading to multiple turnover goals caused by Losing possession in good attacking positions (perhaps even trying a valid attacking pass) and exposing three quarter positions between central midfield- full back -centre back areas.

There you go. The problem.

Parma

[Jools 584]

Parma Ham''s gone mouldy ~ The reason that Naismith plays is not dissimilar to why Russell Martin is regularly selected at centre back in the premier league by managers.

It is essentially because of the type of player that Naismith naturally is and the characteristics of the preferred centre forward Mbokani.

Mbokani is a dangerous, central-focused target player, who has great ability at taking the ball in and protecting it, whilst also winning a high percentage of aerial balls. He is also very awkward to get hold of for a defence, meaning that the defending side win very few balls cleanly against him. This in turn means he creates a great deal of second ball opportunities near his playing sphere regardless whether he wins the ball or not.

In the Premier League it is a huge tactical risk not to operate with three players occupying the central midfield space, typically in a pyramid shape. The 10 role needs to perform this. Naismith or Wes are the obvious choices for this.

However, because of the characteristics of Mbokani, he is very unlikely to run in behind the defence. This will allow opposition defences to hold a high line and compress the play, restricting midfield space and allowing them to oppress us, unless we offer a threat in behind and lateral movement into the wider areas from the centre of the field outwards.

Thus because of playing Mbokani the number 10 must be the front pivot of the pyramid, move into wider areas from central, offer runs in behind the defence, perhaps linking to flick ons, offering a short outlet to the central midfield pair and equally get around Mbokani for second ball.

This a hugely tactical role that requires a player with all of those multiple skills. It requires a great deal of running off the ball and will frequently be unrewarding, particularly when balls into Mbokani are imperfect. It is crucial that such a player have shooting skills as they are expected to score a good amount of goals. In the first half it can be clearly noted that Naismith linked the play right across the pitch, plus movement in towards Mbokani, into channel areas plus a desire and intention to get in behind. Unfortunately Mbokani was well shackled by Kaboul and the gameplan falls down.

The definition above does not apply to Wes. He does some of the things - linking midfield, dropping deep and offering options - but these skills might be expected to bring wider players into the game, even allow central midfield players to go beyond him.

We don''t want this at the top level - particularly not in the first half of games - because we don''t really want those players making those runs forward. The equation is that it exposes our defence and makes conceding a goal more likely than scoring one.

Remember that just because you increase your chance of scoring by 20% by opening the game - super in the championship if you have better players overall or are against defending sides with flaws - if you concurrently increase your chances of conceding by 30% you have tactically "got worse" and increased your chances of losing.....despite the fans being excited and delighted. This is the reality of the Premier League for Norwich.

I am afraid the uncomfortable truth of yesterday''s game was that we did change to attack more. In doing so we exposed our central midfield, our full backs and and out central defenders. Compact opposition with pace on the break, then turned a 1-0 deficit into a 3-0 defeat in classic counter-attack / over-commit fashion.

Whilst terribly uncomfortable it is entirely possible that on such occasions, retaining a closed shape, negating risks and playing for set pieces, a moment of magic, or a refereeing decision is better odds.

That''s why Naismith is chosen ahead of Wes and why Jarvis is chosen ahead of Redmond.

ParmaHow refreshing it is to finally read a member of the forum who has a similar knowledge of football to mine [Y]A bit cheeky to ask, but are you on the clubs books, Parma?

[Van wink 2,994]

Julian Hudson

"How refreshing it is to finally read a member of the forum who has a similar knowledge of football to mine Yes [Y]"

Your mother would be proud of you Julian.

[Indy 3,283]

Good points Parma, but one question do you think it''s working, playing Naismith with Mbokani?

The reason I ask is that it''s not really reaped any real results or goals.

Brady scored the winner at WBA and Klose header along with Olsson scored two of the goals in the victory over Newcastle.

While I totally agree with your point I don''t see it being very effective at the moment.

[Jools 584]

[quote user="Vanwink"]Julian Hudson

"How refreshing it is to finally read a member of the forum who has a similar knowledge of football to mine Yes [Y]"

Your mother would be proud of you Julian.[/quote]I guess I''ll never know. She died giving birth to me [:(]

[Van wink 2,994]

I''m sorry to hear that Julian, she never got to see your cheeky little chops.☹

[Jools 584]

[quote user="Vanwink"]I''m sorry to hear that Julian, she never got to see your cheeky little chops.☹[/quote]It''s okay, Vanwink, I didn''t feel a thing.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

"Wes is not good enough any more...."

Nonsense. He''s played some of the best football of his career this season for both us and Ireland. He was on fire til the manager started "resting" him.

If Wes does not work with Mbok (which I would despute in any event) then we should be seriously considering which striker we play with because his presence in the team is more crucial to our performances and points accumulation than any other I can think of and the stats bear that out.

[Crabbycanary3 994]

Which position does Wes play for Eire, and with which players, in what positions, around him? Only ask because he seems to get MoM most times, these days, he plays for his Country.

[morty 0]

Lafferty does well for his country too.....

[The gut 0]

I''m with you on this Jim Smith.

I think all things considered the last two seasons are probably his best ever for each respective division.

[Jim Smith 2,314]

He seems to either play as an orthodox central midfielder or in the same role he plays for us as the most advanced of three central midfielders.

[Crabbycanary3 994]

Ha ha Morty, but nobody on here, is championing him as a possibility for us to get out of this!

[Crabbycanary3 994]

How many people play in front of him Jim, and in what formation?

[morty 0]

[quote user="Jim Smith"]"Wes is not good enough any more...."

Nonsense. He''s played some of the best football of his career this season for both us and Ireland. He was on fire til the manager started "resting" him.

If Wes does not work with Mbok (which I would despute in any event) then we should be seriously considering which striker we play with because his presence in the team is more crucial to our performances and points accumulation than any other I can think of and the stats bear that out.[/quote]So you''re advocating playing Cameron"couldn''t hit a cows ar$e with a banjo" just so we can shoehorn your favourite player in?Makes perfect sense[Y]

[Indy 3,283]

And there we have our issue, because I can''t see the results of Naismith / Mbokani partnership leading to many goals, I don''t see Jerome as the answer either, is Wes the answer, could putting Redders up top alongside Mbokani lead to him gettin onto the flick ons?

I''m glad I''m not the manager!

[The gut 0]

Do you have a different internet morty? I can''t read where Jim advocates that

[morty 0]

[quote user="Indy"]And there we have our issue, because I can''t see the results of Naismith / Mbokani partnership leading to many goals, I don''t see Jerome as the answer either, is Wes the answer, could putting Redders up top alongside Mbokani lead to him gettin onto the flick ons?

I''m glad I''m not the manager![/quote]Naismith and Mbok worked against Newcastle. Its frankly a bit late in the day now for playing "Hey, why don''t we try this and see if it works"

[Donkey dangler 0]

Investment in a Colney upgrade = long term view

Investment in promising young players = long term view

So why on earth did we spend £8.5m on a nearly 30 year old Naismith (who is not a prolific goalscorer) instead of the no brainer £9m deal for 22/23 year old Afobe? Everton must be laughing their heads off.

[morty 0]

[quote user="Donkey dangler"]Investment in a Colney upgrade = long term view

Investment in promising young players = long term view

So why on earth did we spend £8.5m on a nearly 30 year old Naismith (who is not a prolific goalscorer) instead of the no brainer £9m deal for 22/23 year old Afobe? Everton must be laughing their heads off.[/quote]Why are you assuming Afobe wanted to come here?

[GJP 79]

Afobe didn''t want to come here for 3 reasons:

1, Money

2. Howe over Neil

3. Money

[Indy 3,283]

Not sure we can really agree on that Morty, I don''t think Naismith / Mbokani worked against Newcastle, our goals came from crosses into the box causing problems, I didn''t see much link up play between them.

We did battle and have battled but we have lacked a cutting edge for a while, I think the 7 points we have picke up have been thanks to goals from defenders, Olsson, Klose and Brady.......one from Mbokani.

We need a combo who can score a few in the next four games, surely it is time to change it as our attackers are finding it hard to score given the chances we are making.

Just my opinion not saying I''m right or wrong, but wouldn''t be too dissapointed to drop Naismith.

He was a liability this weekend as he spent more energy chasing the ref than the ball and wasn''t in the game but moaning at the ref for 60 minutes.

[morty 0]

[quote user="Indy"]Not sure we can really agree on that Morty, I don''t think Naismith / Mbokani worked against Newcastle, our goals came from crosses into the box causing problems, I didn''t see much link up play between them.

We did battle and have battled but we have lacked a cutting edge for a while, I think the 7 points we have picke up have been thanks to goals from defenders, Olsson, Klose and Brady.......one from Mbokani.

We need a combo who can score a few in the next four games, surely it is time to change it as our attackers are finding it hard to score given the chances we are making.

Just my opinion not saying I''m right or wrong, but wouldn''t be too dissapointed to drop Naismith.

He was a liability this weekend as he spent more energy chasing the ref than the ball and wasn''t in the game but moaning at the ref for 60 minutes.[/quote]But surely you can see they contributed to the team effort that lead to those goals? We must have watched a different game mate, it was probably Naismith''s best game, and Mbokani was outstanding.Despite what people may perceive as some kind of anti Hoolahan thing, I genuinely don''t believe dropping Naismith for him, is the answer.If we had another decent fit midfielder I would rather advocate pushing Howson forward, or giving Odidja a shot at number 10.They have two weeks to find the answer.

[Indy 3,283]

While I agree and certainly see Mbokani has been immense, although could be a little more clinical at times, Naismith has dissapointed me, he was OK in the Newcastle game but Redders just has the edge for me, I''d much rather push him up top just for his pace, the Sunderland game was crying out for this from the start, just watch the previous edit game and how pace undid them against Leicester.

But I understand you''re logic Morty, I''m not sure Wes instead of Naismith is the answer, I''m just not sure what the answer is!

[morty 0]

[quote user="Indy"]While I agree and certainly see Mbokani has been immense, although could be a little more clinical at times, Naismith has dissapointed me, he was OK in the Newcastle game but Redders just has the edge for me, I''d much rather push him up top just for his pace, the Sunderland game was crying out for this from the start, just watch the previous edit game and how pace undid them against Leicester.

But I understand you''re logic Morty, I''m not sure Wes instead of Naismith is the answer, I''m just not sure what the answer is![/quote]If you''re advocating playing a player out of position, now really isn''t the time. At the very least if we are going to try someone in the 10 position, they have to be an attacking midfielder, and I really am not convinced Redmond would be suited to the role, but I guess a lot depends on the opposition too.No, I don''t have the answer either.

[Indy 3,283]

I just believe we lack pace and utilising Redders might just be the right move. The number of balls Mbokani won and no one running onto the ball was criminal, if that was the game plan then surely Naismith isn''t the answer?..

It''s a risk but like I said one goal between the front pair in the last 11 games warrants the question of why continue with this partnership.

I know Naismith hasn''t played all the games but we''ve scored as many once he''s off the pitch.

[morty 0]

[quote user="Indy"]I just believe we lack pace and utilising Redders might just be the right move. The number of balls Mbokani won and no one running onto the ball was criminal, if that was the game plan then surely Naismith isn''t the answer?..

It''s a risk but like I said one goal between the front pair in the last 11 games warrants the question of why continue with this partnership.

I know Naismith hasn''t played all the games but we''ve scored as many once he''s off the pitch.[/quote]I think the lack of a decent quality, available, midfielder is stifling the choice of options. Leaving Hoolahan out of the equation for previous reasons stated, we don''t have a lot in reserve here. I can''t see Mulumbu, Dorrans or Odidja coming in and making the difference. And dropping Mbokani isn''t an option, Jerome just isn''t cutting it in the Premiership, and Bamford was woeful at Palace.Really we are fairly short on options. The best one being Naismith starts to look like the player we thought we bought.

[The gut 0]

In my reckoning the best performances of this year were against Liverpool, West Ham and Man City. Those games had Hoolahan with varying accomplices, and all could realistically have been won.

A complicated explanation does not neccessarily mean it has any more credence.

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

I actually don''t mind the idea of Hoolahan on the left again at the expense of Brady, who has been substandard of late.

Think a midfield 3 of Redmond, Naismith and Hoolahan could be very potent for us, if Hoolahan is allowed to drift and find more central pockets of space.