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nutty nigel

Rays Funds for the CSF with the Pink un Pickers Week 40

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Just a suggestion but would if you profitability leaders think it''s a good idea you could email me your selections before 10pm on Thursday evening. That way I could post them all up together and they''d be in plenty of time to be considered for the final six which is still our main focus for the thread. Let me know what you think.

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]Just a suggestion but would if you profitability leaders think it''s a good idea you could email me your selections before 10pm on Thursday evening. That way I could post them all up together and they''d be in plenty of time to be considered for the final six which is still our main focus for the thread. Let me know what you think.[/quote]Nutty, Is this to try and avoid a kind of Norwich / Coventry (84/85 season) scenario?

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Don''t remind me of that ''slim!!!!![:@]

 

But yeah, it''s the same principal as all games played together on the last day. Plus you''re in the hotseat and I''m sure you''d like as many picks in as soon as early as possible.

 

Talking of this I noticed all La Liga games kicked off together last weekend which was the penultimate games of the season. I''d like to see that here too.

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Yes, I would most certainly like picks in as early as possible Nutty.It''s a difficult one in a way because the whole season, for the profitability league, will hinge on one week of uncertainty, a closed bid type of scenario where you have no idea if what you have done can be enough to win the league.I''d be interested to hear what others think and not just those at the top of the league either.

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''Slim

I conceived of the profitability league for that very reason..a cup competition that keeps everybody involved until the last week of the season...an outside bet of success, just like the hopes in the first round of the cup...

The league can often lead to a few playing for the trophy for a significant period, increasing the risk of lack of engagement from the majority. As I am sure you have worked out already, somebody could pick Eibar to win away at Barcelona on the last day of the season and hit a 1-25 shot and win the cup from nowhere...

Picking such a result is easier said than done of course...but oh the dreams.....

Parma

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Oh, I completely agree with principle of it parma, that everyone''s in with a chance and involved right up until the last week and that someone could potentially come from nowhere and win the league with a massive long shot and that nothing is certain in that respect.  I posted about it on this thread that I very nearly went for Villa myself, and that a Villa win could have propelled someone from nowhere to the top of the league.I certainly don''t want to sound like I am not behind the spirit of this or that I am unbearably competitive either, however on the basis that somebody could win the league from nowehere, how does ''closed bids'' from just those at the very top fit with that?  I know it doesn''t sound like it, but I am not even sure yet whether I am for or against the proposal.  If we proceeded as we are for the final week it could equally be seen as either an advantage or disadvantage to be first to pick. 

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i am forever grateful to Parma for the profitability league and for having the patience to help me get the formula right. It''s a great addition to Rays Funds.

 

As for those "closed bids". It was just a thought so that I could help so that the picks appeared together. Its not something I want and am quite happy to forget it if it''s not what you guys want. I am only here for you PUPs. My position on the league table is testament to that[;)]

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I was going to suggest something similar, but I''d say either make it voluntary as to whether one submits a semi-anonymous bid, or make it a precondition for being able to win the crown. Either way, make respecting the deadline a precondition for winning.I''d also note the fact that one or more near the top of the profit league will likely pick something of large enough odds such that that pick is deemed too risky to be considered for the six, similar to what I wrote a few posts ago about my picks only getting selected twice after I played roulette with the profit league table for the first 3/4''s of the season.The flip side to non-selection at large odds is that others can watch and see if a pup is good at picking higher odds winners (or lucky as the case may be!) and use this info next season. A deadline would ensure that anyone interested in winning could have their picks highlighted (and potentially their identity revealed) eg when Nutty posts the bet details, regardless of whether their choice makes it into the final six.I''d strongly be in favour of a Friday deadline, as some odds won''t appear until Friday morning or early afternoon (or later). Odds can move a fair bit due to team news and other factors, and this would lessen the chances of that negatively impacting a pick.An alternative to a closed bid system is an open auction until everyone reaches an agreement on what to go with, but that would probably be too complicated.I hope the above makes sense, it''s all just a suggestion.

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The obvious solution is for everyone to pick for the six as usual and PM Nutty their bids for the profitability league in the last week only with a closing point (say Friday at 7pm).

Nutty kindly then posts up all profitability bets together in the big reveal and the race is on...nice climax to the Cup Final....

Parma

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You''ll probably get a fair few post their accumulator picks as usual, being late and having not read the blurb. However, those that want to win the profit league will almost certainly be paying attention. Nice idea though.

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Nutella,

In this season of bizarre occurrences and remarkable events. Please put a tenner on Norwich to stay up at whatever odds you can find.

I''ll send you the money, all proceeds to the pot.....let''s dream a little longer..

Parma

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[quote user="Parma Hams gone mouldy"]Nutella,

In this season of bizarre occurrences and remarkable events. Please put a tenner on Norwich to stay up at whatever odds you can find.

I''ll send you the money, all proceeds to the pot.....let''s dream a little longer..

Parma[/quote]Molto bravissimo!  Parma, grande uomo!!!  [Y]

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A Friday deadline would be better, for the reasons 93v makes.  I never post my final 6 early, so a 7pm Friday deadline is not an issue.If we are going with a ''closed bids'' type system, I also agree that if one wishes to win the league, then they should submit a closed bid.  If we are proceeding with this then perhaps this could be outlined from the start of next season (with a couple of reminders part way through the season and then nearer the final 2 weeks), so that everyone knows and it could even be used for the main table, especially if it close to avoid any copying of picks (which one would hope wouldn''t happen anyway) to ensure that someone stays ahead of someone else.  Say for both tables, the final two weeks could be on a closed bid type system.  Imagine the excitement!I also agree that the ''closed bids'' could remain anonymous, and that they do so until Nutty posts the final table, which would prolong the suspense even longer!  Obviously, we could have a situation where somebody may be able to work out whether they have won based on the other picks.  For example, Hammond could pick something at very long odds and he could, by looking at the other picks, know that no matter what, if his pick wins, he is champion.  In such an instance, if the person could keep that to themselves until Nutty posts the final tables.  One downside of keeping the picks anonymous, well for me personally, is that the person selecting the final 6 that week does not know who has picked what.  When I do the final 6, I find both tables invaluable to see who the picks have come from, where they are in the table, their current form, their success with picking longer odds etc.  Picking the final 6 anytime is extremely difficult and requires a lot of luck.  The last few weeks can be a nightmare, for reasons already mentioned, and then not being able to use the benefit of our tables would make it even more difficult.With regards to staying with the current system as I previously mentioned it could be seen as either a positive or a negative for the one who picks first.  Obviously, it could be seen that the person who picks first is leaving themselves vulnerable and other''s will adjust their picks so the odds would mean that they would finish above the people who pick before them.  However, as we are all aware, picking is far from certain and certainly not an exact science and we personally have no influence over the results of games.  Looking at the top 5 (for examples'' sake) and assuming that the top 5 all wish to win the league.  Tilly knows that he has to go for something extremely risky no matter what.  Hammond would also have to go for something rather risky, Lessingham less so and myself and 93v could come down to strategy, however I would suggest that a ''safe'' pick from either of us would be rather risky, unless having seen the other selections, we felt that they were all extremely risky and that we stood a better chance of winning the league by picking something ''safe'' as we felt there is a very good chance that the others will fail.Picking first could be used as an advantage, especially for those at the very top.  For example, I pick first, and I go for something with medium odds say something around 1.0.  Now 93v could view this in one of 2 ways.  He may think my pick is too risky and that there is nothing with longish odds that he is comfortable with so he therefore decides to go with something safer.  Alternatively, it could force 93v to pick something that he is really not comfortable with.However as I have previously said picking is far from certain and certainly not an exact science and we personally have no influence over the results of games. Having re-read what I have written regarding whether it is an advantage or disadvantage to pick first, it could be deemed unfair either way and on that basis I have concluded (convinced myself) that I would be in favour of a ''closed bid'' system and certainly one moving forward from next season.  It could actually be used as a positive to get new people interested in Rays Funds and to keep existing people interested and picking right to the very last week.  It could be marketed with the tension, the pressure, the excitement, the unknown, so to speak!

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Thanks NBS, Parma and 93v. I really appreciate this input. I''m out at the moment but I''ll have a proper look when I get home later today.

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[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]I also agree that the ''closed bids'' could remain anonymous, and that

they do so until Nutty posts the final table, which would prolong the

suspense even longer![/quote]I think part of the fun would be watching out for each other''s results.[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]Obviously, we could have a situation where somebody may be able to work

out whether they have won based on the other picks.  For example,

Hammond could pick something at very long odds and he could, by looking

at the other picks, know that no matter what, if his pick wins, he is

champion.  In such an instance, if the person could keep that to

themselves until Nutty posts the final tables.[/quote]But you still might be able to guess who picked what based on their previous picks. I suppose that could be fun![quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]One downside of keeping the picks anonymous, well for me personally, is that the person selecting the final 6 that week does not know who has picked what.  When I do the final 6, I find both tables invaluable to see who the picks have come from, where they are in the table, their current form, their success with picking longer odds etc.[/quote]I forgot to mention that I''d envisaged the picker having access to the real identities (unmasked by Nutty).

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A possible problem with the final picker having access to the real identities is in situations like this week, where the picker of the final 6 is in the reckoning to win the league.  In reality though, I suppose they would have already made their pick so it wouldn''t be an advantage to them in terms of the league, they would however know, along with Nutty, who had won the league before anybody else.

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''Slim, you''re over-thinking...the picker would ''t know who''s won because the games wouldn''t have been played.....

Should they wish to recreate Nutella''s spreadsheet for kicks and factor in all the permutations Friday night into Saturday morning they could of course do so.....

All pick blind last week of season, Nutty reveals picks....event...nutty reveals table and hands out gongs....much revelling...

Parma

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Parma I''m not overthinking. I''m not talking about knowing who has won on Friday because obviously the games haven''t been played. I was referring to that picker, should they so wish and with a little bit of work being able to work out who had won before Nutty publishes his official table. It''s a moot point, and as I said anyway it''s not really an issue.

It should definitely be kept as simple and straightforward as possible. I agree that there should be a final official reveal of the table(s) by Nutty at this point he discloses who picked what.

I''d like to propose that it is done for the final two weeks and for both tables too.

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So if I''m understanding this correctly the idea would be that those who are going for the profitability title would email their picks to me by Friday 7pm at which point I''d post all their picks under the heading "selections from the contenders". I would then reveal who picked what when all the results are known and the table can be published? I''m ok with that if it''s what you guys want.

 

93V

NBS

Lessingham

Hammond

Tilly

 

If you''re going for it are you all ok with this?

 

Of course there would still be nothing to stop anyone else suddenly hitting top spot with a 7/1 like 93v did. But in reality we need people to make selections with the final six very much in mind as that''s our prime reason for doing it all.

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Nutella, Request all who want to send you pm picks for the last week, not just a select group.

The profitability league could be won by anyone picking a crazy long shot from anywhere in the world and getting it right in the last week.

Last week is a shoot out blind pick option for all...those who do, do..those who don''t, don''t....

...if you want to help the picker personally, you could post any odds on bets....this way the picker is helped ( a bit less than usual, but still helped - last week of season only).

Parma

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[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]Parma I''m not overthinking. I''m not talking about knowing who has won on Friday because obviously the games haven''t been played. I was referring to that picker, should they so wish and with a little bit of work being able to work out who had won before Nutty publishes his official table. It''s a moot point, and as I said anyway it''s not really an issue.

It should definitely be kept as simple and straightforward as possible. I agree that there should be a final official reveal of the table(s) by Nutty at this point he discloses who picked what.

I''d like to propose that it is done for the final two weeks and for both tables too.[/quote]It depends on when Nutty pulls back the curtain to reveal who''s picked each bet. If the unveiling is done before the matches, everyone knows everything. If it''s at the point of the final table being published then you get the quandry you mentioned about the picker (possibly a title contender) being in the know.

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