Ricardo's relegation theory - The Verdict

[ricardo 7,348]

The Theory My theory states that the league is virtually set in stone after a dozen games. Those

teams with a point per game or less after twelve games are almost

invariably the relegation contenders at the end of the season.Those with a point a game or less after 12 games were:-Norwich               12 pointsChelsea                11 pointsNewcastle            10 pointsBournemouth         8 pointsSunderland             6 pointsVilla                       5 pointsThe three teams in red were relegated, so once again the theory proves spot on. Chelsea as expected moved well clear but Sunderland and Bournemouth occupy the final two safe positions. All pretty good evidence to show things don''t change much after 12 games. We have had 24 completed seasons of the Premier League and 73 teams have been relegated (4 in 94/95 due to reduction in number of

clubs). Of those 73 subsequently relegated clubs 62, ( 85%) had averaged

a point a game or less after 12 matches played. Only 11 teams who had accumulated more than a point per game at the 12 game stage have ever been relegated.At the 26 game mark I also pointed out that 38 points had been enough to stay up in 80% of all seasons and there was no reason to suppose that this season would turn out differently. That one also turned out to be spot on.This is what I said at the 26 game mark (12 games left)So who will be relegatedVilla for certain, barring a miracle exceeding the proportions of last seasons Leicester City performance. Surely they are down.Bournemouth

and Swansea will probably escape. Four points and goal difference is a

good advantage for Bournemouth at this stage and Swansea have the

stronger defence.Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland? Looking at

the stats alone (points, goal difference, run in) it is impossible to

say anything other than that it must be odds on that two of this three

will go. Its going to be unbelievably close, but we always knew that

didn''t we?Any straws to clutch at?Newcastle and Sunderland have to come to Carrow Rd, but that''s about all.From my own personal point of view regarding the predictions I have to

admit that out of loyalty I allowed myself to be blind to some

uncomfortable facts re NCFC. I guess its hard for all supporters not to

clutch any available straw and there were just enough of them to keep

hope alive when any rational appraisal should have shown us that the

writing was on the wall.It didn''t take a genius to see that

Villa were gone early on but Sunderland''s escape was quite remarkable.

twelve points in the first half of the season and twenty-six in the

second half. At Xmas I really thought that they were gone. So in the end another good year for the theory but no better than average for my own predictions

[whoareyou? 0]

What we dismally failed to do in the second half of the season was see games out for a point. I think we have drawn just two games in the second half of the season, won 4 and lost a staggering 13. Just not good enough.Almost a carbon copy of our last relegation.