The Last Two Years

[Ray 111]

As it is a bit quiet on here at the moment, how about discussing the following, appreciating I may have lit the touch paper?

Two years ago after 27 games, we were sitting in 14th with 28 points having just beaten Spurs.

Two years later after 27 games we are, sitting in 17th (Newcastle still to play) with 24 points having just lost to Leicester.

Two years ago we had won 7, drawn 7 and lost 13, this year we have won 6, drawn 6 and lost 15

Two years ago we then secured 4 points from the next 6 games and dropped to 17th, 5 points clear of relegation, although Sunderland had 3 games in hand.

We then sacked Hughton and appointed Adams. As we all know Adams failed to keep us up and led us into a season in the Championship.

By 31st October 2014 we had played 15, won 7, drawn 5 and lost 3, which put us on course for 80 points, which would have put us in the play-offs, where we ended up.

During November we played four, drew 1 and lost 3, potential relegation form, however during December things picked up, we played five, won 3 drew 1 and lost 1, which if taken alone would have put us on course for 92 points and Championship winners, Adams then ‘resigned’ (in effect he was sacked).

So, Adams’ last 5 games returned 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss and even if we take his last two months (9 games) he won 3, drew 2 and lost 4.

Alex Neil’s similar run of games have been, played five, won 0, drawn 1, lost 4 and if we take the last nine, it’s won 2, drawn 1, lost 6.

The rest of what follows is my opinion, which proves me right of course, well it does to me!

Without doubt the opposition in the Prem is of a higher standard, so comparing NA’s and AN’s records may be a little unfair but we spent a few quid ‘bolstering’ the squad, I deliberately didn’t use the word improving.

So, where am I heading with all this (not sure myself) but looking at the facts, it appears that our club/CEO unloaded two managers who had performed better than the current incumbent. Not that I am suggesting AN should be dismissed, however I am wondering about the ‘business’ decisions taken over the last 2 years and throw into that debate, the return on our spending.

For now I shall ignore the Wolf as a mistake and the lack of spending last summer as an abomination both of which could and should have been learned from, however, it does appear in January we spent circa £20m on 3 players who, whilst adding to our options, do not add £20m worth to our quality (with the possible exception of Naismith).

Klose is a small step up on Turner and small steps shouldn’t have £8.5m spent on them and Pinto is not a defensive RB and I doubt ever will be, that said a RWB possibly, as was witnessed Saturday.

On top of all this our Chairman suddenly, and out of the blue, resigned.

My main concern, based on what I see and hear, is that there is no direction, no focus, just a bunch of knee jerk decisions, which by definition tend to be poor ones. If there is focus and direction it is certainly not made public by actions, words maybe but actions - no and it is certainly not transparent to me.

If the club was being run by a bunch of volunteering amateurs, I could perhaps forgive this, however the club is not run by volunteering amateurs, we budget (I assume) well in excess of £1m for a CEO and for that you would expect top-flight professionalism accompanied by top flight decisions and signings (and by top flight signings I mean signings that have a major impact on improving the squad).

We probably all know that the personality of any organisation reflects the personality(ies) at the top, so if it is perceived that we are a club that is reactive rather than proactive, hence the knee jerk decisions, then that will filter down, which may be why we have seen so many team and tactical changes. This type of behaviour may be particularly reflected within the team management, as they are in general young and relatively inexperienced.

There may even be pressure, perceived or otherwise, for certain player(s) to be selected because of the extent of investment in him (them). AN is a young man, a young man trying to make a name for himself, a young man who has spent his entire life within the world of football and I would suggest has very limited experience or knowledge in the way of Senior Management, of the ways of business, that is of course they way it is, however I wonder if this is impacting in all manner of ways. By the time I was 34 I had spent 14 years in some form of management or other and thought I was fully cooked, I’m now considerably older and realise I wasn’t and that I’m still learning.

All that said, my feeling is that he will become a real managerial force and hopefully our managerial force, there will however be bumps along the way.

My conclusion, stick with AN for now, help as much as possible maybe a mentor, a psychologist, etc. etc. and do whatever needs to be done to ensure a focussed direction within the club, thus avoiding knee jerk reactions. This may require investment and re-organisation elsewhere, such as our scouting network or football board.

Thought guys, constructive please.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="Ray"]As it is a bit quiet on here at the moment, how about discussing the following, appreciating I may have lit the touch paper?

Two years ago after 27 games, we were sitting in 14th with 28 points having just beaten Spurs.

Two years later after 27 games we are, sitting in 17th (Newcastle still to play) with 24 points having just lost to Leicester.

Two years ago we had won 7, drawn 7 and lost 13, this year we have won 6, drawn 6 and lost 15

Two years ago we then secured 4 points from the next 6 games and dropped to 17th, 5 points clear of relegation, although Sunderland had 3 games in hand.

We then sacked Hughton and appointed Adams. As we all know Adams failed to keep us up and led us into a season in the Championship.

By 31st October 2014 we had played 15, won 7, drawn 5 and lost 3, which put us on course for 80 points, which would have put us in the play-offs, where we ended up.

During November we played four, drew 1 and lost 3, potential relegation form, however during December things picked up, we played five, won 3 drew 1 and lost 1, which if taken alone would have put us on course for 92 points and Championship winners, Adams then ‘resigned’ (in effect he was sacked).

So, Adams’ last 5 games returned 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss and even if we take his last two months (9 games) he won 3, drew 2 and lost 4.

Alex Neil’s similar run of games have been, played five, won 0, drawn 1, lost 4 and if we take the last nine, it’s won 2, drawn 1, lost 6.

The rest of what follows is my opinion, which proves me right of course, well it does to me!

Without doubt the opposition in the Prem is of a higher standard, so comparing NA’s and AN’s records may be a little unfair but we spent a few quid ‘bolstering’ the squad, I deliberately didn’t use the word improving.

So, where am I heading with all this (not sure myself) but looking at the facts, it appears that our club/CEO unloaded two managers who had performed better than the current incumbent. Not that I am suggesting AN should be dismissed, however I am wondering about the ‘business’ decisions taken over the last 2 years and throw into that debate, the return on our spending.

For now I shall ignore the Wolf as a mistake and the lack of spending last summer as an abomination both of which could and should have been learned from, however, it does appear in January we spent circa £20m on 3 players who, whilst adding to our options, do not add £20m worth to our quality (with the possible exception of Naismith).

Klose is a small step up on Turner and small steps shouldn’t have £8.5m spent on them and Pinto is not a defensive RB and I doubt ever will be, that said a RWB possibly, as was witnessed Saturday.

On top of all this our Chairman suddenly, and out of the blue, resigned.

My main concern, based on what I see and hear, is that there is no direction, no focus, just a bunch of knee jerk decisions, which by definition tend to be poor ones. If there is focus and direction it is certainly not made public by actions, words maybe but actions - no and it is certainly not transparent to me.

If the club was being run by a bunch of volunteering amateurs, I could perhaps forgive this, however the club is not run by volunteering amateurs, we budget (I assume) well in excess of £1m for a CEO and for that you would expect top-flight professionalism accompanied by top flight decisions and signings (and by top flight signings I mean signings that have a major impact on improving the squad).

We probably all know that the personality of any organisation reflects the personality(ies) at the top, so if it is perceived that we are a club that is reactive rather than proactive, hence the knee jerk decisions, then that will filter down, which may be why we have seen so many team and tactical changes. This type of behaviour may be particularly reflected within the team management, as they are in general young and relatively inexperienced.

There may even be pressure, perceived or otherwise, for certain player(s) to be selected because of the extent of investment in him (them). AN is a young man, a young man trying to make a name for himself, a young man who has spent his entire life within the world of football and I would suggest has very limited experience or knowledge in the way of Senior Management, of the ways of business, that is of course they way it is, however I wonder if this is impacting in all manner of ways. By the time I was 34 I had spent 14 years in some form of management or other and thought I was fully cooked, I’m now considerably older and realise I wasn’t and that I’m still learning.

All that said, my feeling is that he will become a real managerial force and hopefully our managerial force, there will however be bumps along the way.

My conclusion, stick with AN for now, help as much as possible maybe a mentor, a psychologist, etc. etc. and do whatever needs to be done to ensure a focussed direction within the club, thus avoiding knee jerk reactions. This may require investment and re-organisation elsewhere, such as our scouting network or football board.

Thought guys, constructive please.[/quote]Ray, with respect, you have thrown a whole load of statistics, arguments and opinions together,some of which seem of dubious relevance, and I am not sure yoiu have built a solid case. You say yourself you didn''t know quite where you were going with this!But as to the underlying complaint about the lack of a strategic direction, I think in part that is inevitable given that we are almost bound by our lack of finance to be a yo-yo club. We have to spend what money we have to try either to ensure we stay in the Premier League or get promoted from the Championship. We are perpetually driven by one of those two short-term imperatives while (at least in the PL) hamstrung by (comparitive) poverty.That apart I do sense a strategic purpose from the board, in much broader terms. And it is to build a club that can eventually establish itself, West Brom or Stoke-style, in the lower mid-table of the PL. The planned improvements at Colney (which are bound to take money away from the transfer pot in the short-term) speak strongly to that.

[Ray 111]

Hi Purple,

Thanks and I agree re building a case, having said that I wasn''t trying to build a solid case for anything, possibly to the detriment of the post?

Perhaps my main point was that we seem to have made decisions on the hoof (and possibly on the cheap) not always a bad thing and sometimes needed, it''s just that this type of decision making can be self perpetuating, hence why we are now in the position of upgrading Colney which will take money away from the transfer pot, especially so if we go down.

There were other points alluded to but only that, alluded to.

[Van wink 2,994]

The best example of lack of coherent stategy was the summer window. I accept that the window was cut short essentially because of the way we gained promotion, but that process should not have distracted us from implementing a well prepared recruitment plan.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

I think you''ve picked your facts pretty selectively.  Fact is with Hughton, the rot started on boxing day when we lost at home to Fulham.  From then on the team looked lost and the spineless away defeats at West ham, Villa (after taking the lead) Southampton and Swansea just showed a team that was heading for relegation.  In hindsight they should have either sacked Hughton earlier or persevered with him.  The oft cited fact that we were 5 points above the relegation zone does ignore Sunderland''s games in hand, as you say, and the fact is they went on a great run and got enough points from those games in hand to pass us.  And frankly that was an easier season to survive in the Prem.

 

Under Neil Adams we were simply inconsistent, which with a squad that was one of the best in the division, just wasn''t good enough.  It was the utterly spineless away performance in the cup at Preston which made them decide they needed someone else to have a good chance of promotion, which turned out to be an excellent decision.

So looking back at the last 2 seasons... we had a failing manager, the board didn''t back him in the January window but left it too late when they made a change.

Last season they made the change at the start of January and it worked.

 

This season they''ve backed the manager in the January window and decided to persevere with him.  Well, who knows what will happen, but after the Hughton example I suspect we''re now at the point where they decide it''s too late to make a change.

 

The simple fact is that each time it''s a gamble - stick or twist.  The board are just making their best guess each time.

[westcoastcanary 0]

One example, surely, where the accusation of short-termism and knee-jerk reactions doesn''t hold any water is commitment to maintaining a grade 1 Academy. Questions can be raised about the wisdom of it, but that''s a different matter. Second example, setting up the "football committee", the role of which is precisely to preserve continuity and strategic coherence in developing and managing ancillary football-related activities by reducing the impact of shorter-term (e.g. managerial) changes etc. Again, you can question how successful this is proving, but that too is a different matter.Ray focusses on the last two years. Like being selective in your choice of statistics, choosing one time slot rather than another can skew debate. Would anybody say that in the period from David McNally''s appointment to the sacking of Hughton, those running the club lacked a coherent strategy, or were guilty of knee jerk reactions? If not, did they suddenly lose the nous that had got us from near-administration to within a point or two of surviving for a third successive season in the EPL while at the same time clearing all our external debt and delivering one of the most exhilarating periods on the field that even us old codgers have witnessed?

[FCC 76]

Interesting post. I think you are spot on with the new signings - more quantity but not significantly better than what we had, and perhaps lacking commitment to the cause.

I was however impressed with us signing the young lads from Dartford, Coventry and York. I hope they come good and mature together. I think this is the longer term plan, buy young quality and help them develop.

Somehow I think we need to acquire a top striker though.

[Mr Angry 1,545]

Wow, talk about misrepresentation:

"Looking at the facts it appears that our club/CEO unloaded two managers who had performed better than the current incumbent (sic)".

Adams'' record last season: P24 W10 D7 L7 GF44 GA29 GD+15 PTS37

Neil''s record last season:P21 W14 D4 L3 GF42 GA18 GD+22 PTS46

Based on their average points per game, had we stuck with Adams for the whole season we would have finished 9th, had we had Neil all season we would have topped the division by 10 points.

As the gist of the rest of your post seems to be based on the "facts" that are actually untrue, I''m not really sure what points you are trying to make.

[Ray 111]

Mr Angry,

Wow, talk about a misrepresenation of a so called misrepresentation.

The figures I gave are indeed facts and facts cannot be untrue by definition. That said I simply started to look at where we were after 27 games last time we were in the Prem and went from there and I also stated in the original post I wasn''t sure myself where I was going with it, consequently I agree, I wasn''t making any particular point.

Although perhaps I should have added ....performed better than the current encumbent ''over x number of games immediately prior to their sacking'', although I thought that was implied?

II was in essence musing about why and when the board took ''managerial sacking'' decsions and what if any impact this could have throughout the club, similar to how decisions made at board level in any organisation can affect the workforce.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

The big difference between now and the other two times in the comparison is the supporters. If at 9:30 tomorrow night the manager has obviously lost a big chunk of the support then we will be in the position we were the previous two times the manager was changed.

[Ray 111]

Nutty,

I suspect that won''t happen tomorrow, whatever the result, after all it is Chelsea, now, next Saturday!!

[Katie Borkins 1]

Neil Adams would not have put the run together that AN did to get us promoted. He had lost the plot.

AN has earned the right to manage us for the rest of the season and beyond. We are punching above our weight and will need to keep doing so until we can follow the West Brom or Stokes of this world and establish ourselves as a PL club finishing 14th each season. Hardly the height of ambition in itself but a reflection on our ownership, funding and status.

We are not the big club many of the posters here think we are, and there are no quick fixes to getting there. It takes patience and the ability to deal with disappointment more than triumph. More than that, it needs a healthy dose of realism. As fans we can all dream big but we need to remember the realities of being a small fish in the PL.

I think that''s enough clichés for one day.

[Baldyboy 0]

Is that the same Neil Adams who at least managed to have a team keep a clean sheet away from home unlike the current manager?

[GJP 79]

With regard to the signing of the younger players, do people not think this is with a view to making them a revenue stream as much or maybe even more than it is with a view to them being first team players?

The lad from Coventry might be a step up but I would think we''ve got an eye on loan fees etc.

[Mello Yello 2,278]

A strategic direction with purpose, a coherent strategy from the board for the future......?

The loss of Mr Bowkett under a secretive cloud, who''s then replaced by a like-minded political chum of the majority shareholding duo.......Then, coupled with the nepotistic appointment of their nephew Tom to the higher echelons of a Premiership football club Board............."Chortle"........What next, Captain Canhardly and Splattus Cattus appointed as outside investment seeking stalwarts.....? BOING!

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

[quote user="Baldyboy"]Is that the same Neil Adams who at least managed to have a team keep a clean sheet away from home unlike the current manager?[/quote]

 

Yes, that''s the man.