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pete

Relegation run in

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How many points will it take to survive? maybe 35 will be enough the maybe not. It is clear its two from three all three terrible away from home. Sunderland home fixtures to come look difficult WBA, Leicester, Arsenal and Chelsea with Man C to be rearranged, can''t see too many points there. Newcastle at home Sunderland, Swansea, Palace, Spurs and Everton to be arranged. One or two winnable there.

Arranged matches may be dependent on timing re champions league for Man C and Everton in FA Cup may determine difficulty of match.

Benitez factor the unknown may inspire Newcastle next 3 games will tell us.

Now onto City games to come as follows:

WBA good record at the Hawthorns hope for the best not a no show any more away and forget survival.

Newcastle must win if lose will not survive

Palace in poor form but terrible record at Selhurst again need to show up.

Sunderland see Newcastle.

Watford not in greatest form and if still in Cup could lose focus. If still tight at the bottom and were still in it Watford might be generous as trip to Norwich more amenable than trips to NE.

Arsenal not great record here but they are beatable however will need points for Champs League.

Man U need LVG to stay in charge not Giggs to take over same spirit as shown on Saturday need 2013 type finale.

Everton hope for FA cup final will rest Lukaku etc. Everton home form not great.

If we can start to play away from Carrow Rd its possible the miracle could be on.

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Everything depends on us getting the job done, however with that hopeful happening I think Swansea are in for a dark horse relegation spot still. They are ahead yes, but the fixtures for them are horrible;

After Villa away they have; Stoke (A), Chelsea (H), Newcastle (A), Leicester (A) Liverpool (H) West Ham (A) Man City (H)

It would take a 3 match swing for us to catch them, but with our fixtures against theirs I wouldn''t bet against that.

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Miracle is definitely putting it a bit strong when we are below Subderland in 17th on GD. Yes Newcastle have 2 games in hand but difficult ones.

Basically it''s all to play for among the 3 and Swansea not quite safe yet.

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As I see it we need the following in each mini group of games:

1. To beat Newcastle and Sunderland

2. Win two of Watford, Palace and WBA

3. Any points from Everton, Arsenal and Man Utd will be a bonus

I''d be pretty confident of surviving on 37 if we accomplish group 1 results. Fail in group 1 then even if we pick up points from the third game in groups 2 and 3 I think we''ll go down as we will have given our competitors 3 points further on us, or parity, and I doubt we''d make that up or get ahead from those remaining games.

All in Group 3 could have their league destinies pretty much solved when we play them which could work out like when we played Man City a few back. But the "Cup Finals" are in the first two groups.

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Ricardo should be able to give us his latest view on the points situation he said 37/38 before that may have changed with a few more games played

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"Let''s hope Leicester give Newcastle a good tonking tonight just to keep them in their place."

Yes, and it''s important that Benitez doesn''t start with a win as it might just herald a revival of some sorts. The general consensus is that they (Newcastle) had the players, but lacked good management. I prefer Shearer''s view at this moment in time ie. that the Club is rotten from top to bottom. He should know.

It would only suit us, as I see it, if that derby game to come were to be a draw. A winner from that would also get a boost.

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I reckon we will need 37 to survive.

We will have to win against Newcastle and Sunderland regardless of what we do in the other matches.

WBA is a good away ground for us, we need to keep that up this week and hope that the Albion players are on the beach already.

Other games where we can win are Everton, Palarse and Watford.

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Aye, we need at least three more wins and a few draws. The games against Sunderland, Newcastle and Palace seem to represent the best chance for the former but we have seen many times in the past that points can come from anywhere. We are capable of winning any one of our remaining fixtures but can we win enough of them? If Palace and/or Swansea can now hit a patch like the one we''ve just experienced then either may still get dragged in but it does seem unlikely to me. I have a horrible feeling Newcastle will pick up significantly between now and the end of the season but I would love for that hunch to be proved wrong. At the end of the day, with games against both main relegation rivals coming up, our fate does still remain in our hands. Beat them both and we can probably get our noses in front. Allow either to pull away from us and we have a larger mountain to climb. We need to continue giving the lads every encouragement to deliver. Our form has been patchy all season; now would be a fantastic time to find some consistency. COYY!!

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[quote user="BroadstairsR"]"Let''s hope Leicester give Newcastle a good tonking tonight just to keep them in their place."

Yes, and it''s important that Benitez doesn''t start with a win as it might just herald a revival of some sorts. The general consensus is that they (Newcastle) had the players, but lacked good management. I prefer Shearer''s view at this moment in time ie. that the Club is rotten from top to bottom. He should know.

It would only suit us, as I see it, if that derby game to come were to be a draw. A winner from that would also get a boost.[/quote]I read today that Benitez has always avoided defeat in his first game at a new club.Time for that to end tonight please...

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If Newcastle and Sunderland are expected to win only 1 or 2 more games a piece, we only need 8 more points to avoid relegation even by goal difference, assuming no Villa 40 day miracle resurrection takes place.

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Newcastle have the best run in and it''s worrying as they have 5 games against the leagues poorer teams and as 2 of us are going down you have to imagine one of Sunderland and Newcastle will also be able to pin 3-4 wins together. We are going to need to win 4-5 games to be sure of staying up.

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I see Steve Coppell has said we wont win another match and the best we can hope for is three more draws , now i think we will end up relegated but even i think we may have another two wins in us .

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Don''t forget Palace - their run in is: W Ham a, us h, Arsenal a, Man U a, Watford h, Newcastle a, Stoke h, Southampton a. In the form they''re in, I can only see 6 points tops, taking them to 39.

Stating the b''ing obvious, but our next 3 games will determine our fate. 3 more performances like the last 2 and we''ll be fine.

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If we can beat Newcastle and Sunderland and get a point at Palace we should certainly stay up. The other two around us have tough run in.

Lets hope Neil keeps with Olsson and Brady combo and starts Mbokani and Naismith up top. Bennett and Klose look very solid at the back. O''Neil''s overall play is stronger than Tettey. Hoolahan and Bassong weaken us and Ive got no time for them in these key fixtures.

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Let me explain this to you, Villa, because it appears not to have dawned on you yet. This years relegation trio were destined to be made up of clubs with pieces of real estate present in their names so, obviously the final two will either be from a Castle, a Palace or just Land. Villa was always doomed because, as we all know when a Villa is advertised as a vacation spot, it usually turns out to be a sh*t shack.

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