Mbo makes team of the week

[Jools 584]

[quote user="T"]Those who claim to know better than a professional fall into the mental bias trap on the learning curve of unconscious incompetence.where they know so little that they don''t realise how little they know. Certainly the more I have qualified. Studied and coached the more confirmation I receive of how little i knew at the start and how little an amateur knows compared to a professional.

Absolutely nothing wrong with having an an pinion but should be done in the context of an awareness of the level of information experience and qualifications. That does not mean professionals do not make mistakes as we all do with hindsight. However that does not make it right to be abusive about someone who is more capable then the person who criticises. Neither do I believe that the people who are so critical are so perfect in all the work that they do or that they would think it acceptable to receive the abuse that they give out from the people who observe their work. it shows a complete lack of awareness, arrogance and lack of grasp of reality.[/quote]Well there''s a bunch of pseudointellectual cr@p right there.

[T 190]

You are right not in those exact words but the criticism is based on the assumption that they would make a better better decision on selection position and tactics. In practice we can never know as we can never know what would have happened if different decisions have been made. In practice all of us can only make decisions available to us at the time. The decisions look good when they work out and bad when they fail. The classic is buying shares where people attribute profits to their skill and losses to bad lack. In practice they don''t have a clue either way as they have no inside information unless they are acting illegally.

I suspect we were too gung Ho at times. I suspect that we were trying to shoe horn the best players abvailable at the time into their wrong position. I hope we have settled onto our best team and tactic. I suspect tha because AN is relatively young he is going through a steeper learning curve but I also suspect he has a lot of ability. I don''t know any of this for sure so I have no grounds to be overly critical or praiseworthy. I do know that a manager has only limited influence long term and I do know he is outperforming his budget. But then I thought this thread about mbokani who I thought looked like a full on premier league footballer but that is from someone who knows nothing about football but has studied human perception failures and there are a lot on here

[Jools 584]

[quote user="T"]You are right not in those exact words but the criticism is based on the assumption that they would make a better better decision on selection position and tactics. In practice we can never know as we can never know what would have happened if different decisions have been made. In practice all of us can only make decisions available to us at the time. The decisions look good when they work out and bad when they fail. The classic is buying shares where people attribute profits to their skill and losses to bad lack. In practice they don''t have a clue either way as they have no inside information unless they are acting illegally.

I suspect we were too gung Ho at times. I suspect that we were trying to shoe horn the best players abvailable at the time into their wrong position. I hope we have settled onto our best team and tactic. I suspect tha because AN is relatively young he is going through a steeper learning curve but I also suspect he has a lot of ability. I don''t know any of this for sure so I have no grounds to be overly critical or praiseworthy. I do know that a manager has only limited influence long term and I do know he is outperforming his budget. But then I thought this thread about mbokani who I thought looked like a full on premier league footballer but that is from someone who knows nothing about football but has studied human perception failures and there are a lot on here[/quote]Thanks for giving us a couple of paragraphs this time around [Y] Which university are you at?They''re not what they use to be are they.

[T 190]

I agree that universities are not what up they are.

It is just a standard part of decision theory courses taught at university. it is also a compulsary part of training for senior management in some global leading firms.

An example is that people respond defensively aggressively with no logical intelligent argument when faced with something that they don''t understand which doesnt fit in with their preconceived prejudices. Pink''un throws up numerous entertaining examples of these failures in human thinking on a daily basis.

[Fuzzar 1,702]

Clever as you no doubt are T, spelling things correctly should definitely be compulsory.

I see on BBC sport that Mbokani wants to quit international football. Certainly makes him more attractive as a permanent signing for next year if we stay up.

[Van wink 2,994]

T

"An example is that people respond defensively aggressively with no logical intelligent argument when faced with something that they don''t understand which doesnt fit in with their preconceived prejudices. Pink''un throws up numerous entertaining examples of these failures in human thinking on a daily basis. "

It certainly does, there is also a level of patronising behaviour which is equally entertaining.

[T 190]

I was just testing out the functionality of my new popular brand of smart phone I have been given. A good example of decision theory failure. Nice consumer toy but absolutely useless for business.

Having never played professionally with no football coaching qualification I think I know sod all about football although no doubt there are many on here who are not professionally qualified who know a lot more than me. I enjoy reading sensible debate from people who clearly know more than me. Unfortunately it is all too rare with too much unpleasant ignorant abuse of management and players which shows a complete lack of self awareness.

I do know I would happy if mbokani does stay if carries on playing as he is at moment as enjoy watching him play. Well that would be a good decision I can not say as I don''t have enough info.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

[quote user="Vanwink"]T "An example is that people respond defensively aggressively with no logical intelligent argument when faced with something that they don''t understand which doesnt fit in with their preconceived prejudices. Pink''un throws up numerous entertaining examples of these failures in human thinking on a daily basis. " It certainly does, there is also a level of patronising behaviour which is equally entertaining.[/quote]

 

Oh, can''t say I''d noticed VW.

 

Anyway, I''d have no doubt that AN is way better as a manager than I could ever be.  But he''s inexperienced as a manager.  And when we talk about longer serving players like RM, City fans who watch the team regularly have seen them play over quite a few years, going back to our last stretch in the Prem.  You can''t expect AN to have paid attention to them before he joined the team.  So it''s not surprising that sometimes he misses points which are clear to quite a few posters on here.

[hogesar 9,618]

[quote user="mrs miggins"]hogesar wrote the following post at 05/04/2016 5:13 PM:1) Whittaker has played as well as Wisdom, Pinto and Martin have in other games.

2) If you''d listened to AN he''s comfortably admitted Howson is not a RM but at the time when trialled in CM was not taking hold of the game well enough and we had other options at the time - players in the middle of the park weren''t playing badly yet Howson''s quality meant he still wanted him in the side. I agree he struggled a bit out there.

3) Some of Brady''s best performances have been at Left Back, and in a couple of games Olsson has looked a complete liability when brought in off the bench or given a chance. In his recent run of games, he''s been very good however.

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I''d agree with all that Hog but just because a player who you know is the best player in that position doesn''t play well for a game or two, it doesn''t mean that you then don''t play them, especially when the alternative is worse, and you don''t play an out of form player out of position e.g. Howson. However, I''d say AN made the correct decision by dropping Ruddy and bringing him back in, yet I said, as did so many others as well at the time say the same thing.[/quote]

I think those are all fair comments Miggins, but I do see things slightly differently.

For example, I wanted Howson dropped when he was struggling out on the right. But there''s nothing to say I was correct in that other than we were losing games. But we may have lost those games anyway. I then saw Vadis play there and have a good game. I then saw him play there again and it was like Jon Otsemobor had signed for us again. 

Maybe playing those games has helped with Howsons upturn in form now - and therefore AN made the right decision? I don''t know.

I fully agree that AN will get things wrong, but I wouldn''t say any of us can say for sure what those things are - even the RM at CB debate. I think AN still see''s him as a CB - but the simple reality is others are playing better than him in those positions at the moment.

[paul moy 235]

[quote user="Fuzzar"]Clever as you no doubt are T, spelling things correctly should definitely be compulsory.

I see on BBC sport that Mbokani wants to quit international football. Certainly makes him more attractive as a permanent signing for next year if we stay up.[/quote]

Yes, his story is all over Talksport this morning as he has fallen out with his football authorities after failing to turn up for a match after the bombing that he had the good fortune to narrowly miss.

He has said that he will never play for DRC again after they insisted he should still turn up for his international game after the bombing. I hope we sign him permanently too !!

[Tumbleweed 106]

The opinions we have of AN as a manager and his decisions are obviously based on what we see on the pitch and read in the papers, and sometimes see at the odd press conference. Little else.

If someone like Howson or Redmond has a bad game and we think he should be dropped that is fair enough. If AN disagrees because he sees things differently in training or has no viable alternative or it suits its tactics then that is also fair enough. Maybe the guy has an injury niggle for instance. But if Redmond, say, then has another bad game and another, surely the evidence on the pitch starts to outweigh any other factors making any criticisms we may raise much more valid.

lafferty is another interesting example. Looks like poor man management to me from the outside and when we weren''t coring goals it seemed odd that he wasn''t given a chance. But we don''t know what has gone on behind the scenes, his real attitude or what really happens at Colney. However we were told that AN had good man managements skills and successfully brought Bassong in from the cold. Seems at odds with the Lafferty situation. Does that mean AN has lost it or forgotten the basics from his early days?

Who knows, but it is legitimate for any of us to have our own opinions based on what we see. What is more problematical is pure speculation which is where AN as manager will have more facts than us. But that doesn''t mean that he is always right or will get everything right, just that he has more evidence to feed into his decision making. After all if every manager got everything right they wouldn''t be fired..............

[Van wink 2,994]

T

"But that doesn''t mean that he is always right or will get everything right, just that he has more evidence to feed into his decision making. After all if every manager got everything right they wouldn''t be fired......"

He certainly will generally have more and better quality information (evidence) about players than we do, that doesn''t of course mean that he will always use the evidence he has to come to the best decision. Decisions will also be influenced by emotion, personal prejudice, past experience, tactical astuteness etc etc. all of which will influence whether the manager makes the right decision, he''ll sometimes get it right taking all these and many more factors into account, and he''ll sometimes get it wrong. Those that get it right more frequently will probably keep their job longer, but sometimes a fan will have made a correct call when he has got it wrong.

[morty 0]

Yes, yes, yes, ramble, ramble.My point still stands, people here can have an opinion, but someone who actually is a qualified football manager is a lot more likely to get it right.Jeez, a few of you really have an over inflated opinion of your footballing knowledge.

[mrs miggins 0]

morty wrote the following post at 06/04/2016 12:02 PM:

Yes, yes, yes, ramble, ramble.

My point still stands, people here can have an opinion, but someone who actually is a qualified football manager is a lot more likely to get it right.

Jeez, a few of you really have an over inflated opinion of your footballing knowledge.

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Again though, like myself and Vanwink are saying, none of us are stating that we know more than the manager so the point itself is pointless in this discussion.

Hog you make a very good point when you point out that just because it looks like AN made a mistake, that doesn''t necessarily mean people were right when they say that (for example) Howson should''ve played in the middle instead of on the right. I believe this is correct; no-one I suppose can say that they were definitely right, only that it looks as if they were right; so you (and I...and most people) were most probably right when you said at the time that Howson should be playing most of the games in the middle and not on the right, but none of us can know for certain; only what is probable.

[morty 0]

[quote user="mrs miggins"]morty wrote the following post at 06/04/2016 12:02 PM:

Yes, yes, yes, ramble, ramble.

My point still stands, people here can have an opinion, but someone who actually is a qualified football manager is a lot more likely to get it right.

Jeez, a few of you really have an over inflated opinion of your footballing knowledge.

-----------------------------------------

Again though, like myself and Vanwink are saying, none of us are stating that we know more than the manager so the point itself is pointless in this discussion.

Hog you make a very good point when you point out that just because it looks like AN made a mistake, that doesn''t necessarily mean people were right when they say that (for example) Howson should''ve played in the middle instead of on the right. I believe this is correct; no-one I suppose can say that they were definitely right, only that it looks as if they were right; so you (and I...and most people) were most probably right when you said at the time that Howson should be playing most of the games in the middle and not on the right, but none of us can know for certain; only what is probable.[/quote]You are implying that you have made calls and judgements that Alex Neil was unable to see so, frankly, you are.My God, we are going round the houses here, and it ends up at the same place, Alex Neil knows more about this than you do. Seriously, read back that load of old twaddle you just posted above.

[mrs miggins 0]

You are implying that you have made calls and judgements that Alex Neil was unable to see so, frankly, you are.

My God, we are going round the houses here, and it ends up at the same place, Alex Neil knows more about this than you do. Seriously, read back that load of old twaddle you just posted above.

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Again I can''t help but feel you haven''t read the posts. I have said, as has everyone else in this thread has that AN knows more about football, the team etc than we do.

This statement I think is also wrong below:

"You are implying that you have made calls and judgements that Alex Neil was unable to see so, frankly, you are."

It''s not that I think he was unable to see that it was a mistake to put Howson on the right for example; he may think it was still the right decision to put him there for those games, but my feeling (and many others) think that this was a mistake and he should''ve been played in the middle. The reason why we think we are right is that since he''s played regularly there, he''s been brilliant.

The thing is M you keep bringing up the same point (which is why we''re going round in circles) that AN knows more about football than us, yet once again, that is something that every person in this thread including myself agree with.

[morty 0]

[quote user="mrs miggins"]You are implying that you have made calls and judgements that Alex Neil was unable to see so, frankly, you are.

My God, we are going round the houses here, and it ends up at the same place, Alex Neil knows more about this than you do. Seriously, read back that load of old twaddle you just posted above.

-------------------------

Again I can''t help but feel you haven''t read the posts. I have said, as has everyone else in this thread has that AN knows more about football, the team etc than we do.

This statement I think is also wrong below:

"You are implying that you have made calls and judgements that Alex Neil was unable to see so, frankly, you are."

It''s not that I think he was unable to see that it was a mistake to put Howson on the right for example; he may think it was still the right decision to put him there for those games, but my feeling (and many others) think that this was a mistake and he should''ve been played in the middle. The reason why we think we are right is that since he''s played regularly there, he''s been brilliant.

The thing is M you keep bringing up the same point (which is why we''re going round in circles) that AN knows more about football than us, yet once again, that is something that every person in this thread including myself agree with.[/quote]Good, glad you finally came round to my way of thinking[Y]I''m not so sure Jim Smith agrees, but he seems to have gone mysteriously missing after I asked him a hard question.

[mrs miggins 0]

Again, I don''t think you''ve read the post.

nevermind

[Peanuts 150]

It''s not just that the manager is more experienced or skilled at managing a football club than the average poster, it''s also that he has access to far more information than we do. It may be that fans have made different calls to the manager that with hindsight have turned out to be better than his, but given that Alex Neil is basing his decisions on far more complete information, you might as well be comparing apples with oranges.

On the topic of Mbokani, I''ve been critical of him in the past and I''m glad he proved me wrong against Newcastle. He had a great game and deserved to be in team of the week.

[morty 0]

[quote user="mrs miggins"]Again, I don''t think you''ve read the post.

nevermind[/quote]I did read it, but I can''t be ar$ed to debate it any further.There was a reason Howson was played on the right, and the fact Alex Neil did it more than once means that he didn''t see it as a mistake.It doesn''t make him wrong about it, and you right.

[Nuff Said 5,092]

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Coming on here to proclaim "I told you it was 11:45" ignores the other 719 minutes every twelve hours. The point about managers'' experience is that overall they are far more likely (but not guaranteed) to get more decisions right than any Pink Un poster, no matter how great they are on Football Manager. If we had a manager who never got anything wrong, they wouldn''t be our manager for long.In the interests of balance, as Purple points out, experience is not infallible, and Mrs M, you did admit to your mistakes as well as your successes.

[mrs miggins 0]

morty wrote the following post at 06/04/2016 1:49 PM:There was a reason Howson was played on the right, and the fact Alex Neil did it more than once means that he didn''t see it as a mistake.

It doesn''t make him wrong about it, and you right.

----------------------------

And I''ve also explained why this is also a correct statement to make.

[morty 0]

[quote user="mrs miggins"]morty wrote the following post at 06/04/2016 1:49 PM:There was a reason Howson was played on the right, and the fact Alex Neil did it more than once means that he didn''t see it as a mistake.

It doesn''t make him wrong about it, and you right.

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And I''ve also explained why this is also a correct statement to make.[/quote]Yeah, we''ll leave it there fella[Y]

[hogesar 9,618]

[quote user="Peanuts"]It''s not just that the manager is more experienced or skilled at managing a football club than the average poster, it''s also that he has access to far more information than we do. It may be that fans have made different calls to the manager that with hindsight have turned out to be better than his, but given that Alex Neil is basing his decisions on far more complete information, you might as well be comparing apples with oranges.

On the topic of Mbokani, I''ve been critical of him in the past and I''m glad he proved me wrong against Newcastle. He had a great game and deserved to be in team of the week.

[/quote]

Yeah, I guess that kind of explains how I see it.

For example, Miggins (and plenty of others, for that matter) could well be completely correct about RM at CB and therefore they see AN playing him there as a mistake. For all we know AN now agree''s, or he could still think he was completely correct in his decision.

Some wanted Bennett back into the side, but he might have been half-arsed in training and telling AN to f off every other week. Both of those are incredibly unlikely. He might have sent death threats to Hoolahan. That''s probably even more unlikely, although if you''re going to pick on anyone I guess he''s the obvious target being so small and what not.

So yes, whilst I didn''t agree with Howson on the right, and I personally would have dropped him with the limited info at my disposal, AN has much more information and therefore is much more likely to be making the best decision than I am. On top of that, his livelihood and career rely on him getting these decisions correct. For me, it''s joyful make-believe.

[mrs miggins 0]

"Some wanted Bennett back into the side, but he might have been half-arsed in training and telling AN to f off every other week. Both of those are incredibly unlikely. He might have sent death threats to Hoolahan. That''s probably even more unlikely, although if you''re going to pick on anyone I guess he''s the obvious target being so small and what not."

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Bit extreme :)

[Jim Smith 2,314]

[quote user="morty"][quote user="mrs miggins"]You are implying that you have made calls and judgements that Alex Neil was unable to see so, frankly, you are.

My God, we are going round the houses here, and it ends up at the same place, Alex Neil knows more about this than you do. Seriously, read back that load of old twaddle you just posted above.

-------------------------

Again I can''t help but feel you haven''t read the posts. I have said, as has everyone else in this thread has that AN knows more about football, the team etc than we do.

This statement I think is also wrong below:

"You are implying that you have made calls and judgements that Alex Neil was unable to see so, frankly, you are."

It''s not that I think he was unable to see that it was a mistake to put Howson on the right for example; he may think it was still the right decision to put him there for those games, but my feeling (and many others) think that this was a mistake and he should''ve been played in the middle. The reason why we think we are right is that since he''s played regularly there, he''s been brilliant.

The thing is M you keep bringing up the same point (which is why we''re going round in circles) that AN knows more about football than us, yet once again, that is something that every person in this thread including myself agree with.[/quote]Good, glad you finally came round to my way of thinking[Y]I''m not so sure Jim Smith agrees, but he seems to have gone mysteriously missing after I asked him a hard question.[/quote]

Been doing some work Morty sorry. What hard question was that?

I also accept that Alex Neil knows more about football in general than me and indeed probably all posters on their board. I do, however, think that this season he has taken a long time to make some calls and judgments that fans on here (and other messageboards and at matches) were able to see and were not always raising as hindsight. Perhaps in some cases there were mitigating factors fans were not aware of or perhaps being so close to the situation and influenced by personalities its harder for him to be objective about things or perhaps he was over thinking things or perhaps its just all part of his learning curve but I do believe that on a number of occasions he got things wrong.

A prime example if this would be taking Tettey off against Newcastle away at a point when we were well on top. Many fans queried that as soon as they saw who was coming off (not who was coming on). They feared it would leave us too open. That was an occasion where fans who feared that were correct and Neil got it wrong. He admitted as much post match.

The thing is that there are some very intelligent posters on this board (not including myself in that number) who I am sure could do any job to a good standard, including football management were they to get the opportunity to do it. They never will, because its a rather unique "closed shop" world which is generally the preserve of ex players but I firmly believe that they could do the job perfectly well if they could ever get over the "he never played the game professionally" hurdle in the dressing room. Many fans have watched us for years and years and years. They know a good player when they see one and they can see when a player is not being used to the maximum benefit.

Alex Neil is a competent manager. He knows a lot about football. he has many strengths and he will deserve credit for keeping us up this season if he does. But he has also made and will continue to make mistakes (hopefully a dwindling number as he learns). As long as the good stuff outweighs the mistakes then all will be well and he will get a pat on the back but as a manager of a premier league team his mistakes are bound to be scrutinized, especially when they fall into the forseeable category, so I don''t accept that we can''t comment on them or point them out purely because "he knows more about football" than us.

[Van wink 2,994]

Mrs Miggins

"The thing is M you keep bringing up the same point (which is why we''re going round in circles) that AN knows more about football than us, yet once again, that is something that every person in this thread including myself agree with. "

Exactly,👍

[morty 0]

[quote user="Vanwink"]Mrs Miggins

"The thing is M you keep bringing up the same point (which is why we''re going round in circles) that AN knows more about football than us, yet once again, that is something that every person in this thread including myself agree with. "

Exactly,👍[/quote]You''re like the kid no one likes, circling an argument shouting "Fight"[:)]

[Tumbleweed 106]

Another interesting one is AN''s "rotation" policy. Have we had a settled side at any point?

Many commentators have expressed the view that a contributing factor to us struggling has been AN "not knowing" his strongest side. In my line of work, if we changed our set up every week we''d be in chaos. So it seems common sense to me that you''d keep a side settled.

I remember feeling that in Walker and Stringer''s days we could pretty much write down the team. Now we have whole threads as none of us have the foggiest what the line up will be. Does this help? I don''t think so. AN is a football manager trained in footballing stuff and knows what is going on at Colney etc but surely some things transcend pure football and doesn''t require specialist football training or expertise. On those aspects maybe some people do actually know more than the manager.

[morty 0]

Here you go Jim, this is what I said, and sums up your "I know better attitude""Jim said" :-I will even admit that the last two results/performances have perhaps

made resting Wes from time to time defensible although I still don''t

want to see us do it too regularly.

So heres an example of the manager getting it

100% right, but you will only, begrudgingly, acknowledge it? But still

don''t like it? What is your opinion based on here exactly?