The Run In

[It's Character Forming 487]

I thought it would be useful to look at the games for us, Sunderland and Newcastle.  Villa are effectively down already, and I''m going to ignore Palace here because if they get caught up in the relegation scrap, chances are it''s because we''re doing well  anyway :

Saturday 9th April

Palace vs City 3pm

Soton vs Newcastle 3pm

Sunday 10th - Sunderland vs Leicester 1.30pm

 

Sat 16th April - City vs Sunderland 12.45.

Newcastle vs Swansea 3pm.

 

Tuesday 19th - Newcastle vs Man City - Newcastle''s game in hand.

 

Saturday 23rd - Liverpool vs Newcastle, & Sunday - Sunderland vs Arsenal.  City''s game is postponed.

 

Saturday 30th - Arsenal vs City (5.30), Stoke vs Sunderland, Newcastle vs Palace.

 

Saturday May 7th - City vs Man U (12.45), Villa vs Newcastle, Sunderland v Chelsea

 

Wed 11th May - City vs Watford, Sunderland v Everton

 

Sunday 15th - Everton v City, Newcastle v Spurs, Watford v Sunderland.

 

For me, it confirms we are best placed of the 3 at the moment, with points on the board rather than a game in hand, and none of the 3 have much of a better run-in than the others.  If we can keep our momentum going for the next couple of games, we then have a good break to prepare for the final four game run-in.  Defeat to Sunderland and things would suddenly look a lot worse.

[BroadstairsR 583]

Thanks for that.

A better run in, but not "much better" IMO.

The Sunderland game is very important, but not vital it would seem.

Beat them and I feel we should be counting our chickens.

I would settle for a point at Selhurst but remain more optimistic. Three wins in a row in this league is a rarity, even for the big boys nowadays.

Watford seems eminently pointable. They do not seem as prolific as they were mid-season and now have a cup distraction. The F.A. Cup involvement is a very big thing for a Watford club with few past successes and will likely dominate their thinking and psych, whether they go out or not in the Semis.

Our biggest plus factors do not lie in our reasonably favourable run-in but more in our recent up-turn in form and confidence all coming together at the right time and added to by both Klose and Mbokani justifying their presence by hitting their respective high levels of performance exactly when required.

I, personally, am now more confident than at any time since the Christmas run and I had previously given up most hope.

[It's Character Forming 487]

Agreed - after the Villa away game I was very negative and now it''s looking much brighter, even though we''re a long way from being safe.  And it''s down to us hitting form, which must be the worry for Newcastle/Sunderland.

 

What I like looking at our fixtures is that none of them are a write-off, and the Arsenal game is the only one where I''d take a point now.  With Arsenal, they could destroy you 5-0 or we could get a sneaky 1-0 win or anything in between, you never know.  Otherwise, if we keep playing as we have done, any of those games we should expect the team to be competitive.

[Tumbleweed 38]

If we lose it from here it will be very disappointing. Fate in our own hands, hitting some form at the right time, getting a slice of luck here and there, a key game against a rival at home, games against others with distractions, pressure building on Benitez and Big Sam as games run out. Even we can''t muck this up.............surely?

[It's Character Forming 487]

Don''t call me Shirley !

 

Last season, once AN got us in the frame, he did a good job of seeing things out, picking us back up when we failed to get 2nd spot and did a superb job of navigating the playoffs.  Recently, the Man C and WBA games saw us look pretty solid, Saturday was too nerve-wracking and open but we got the crucial break, so hopefully he can drive it forward from here.  But the margins are so tight that a single chance/decision can change a game which could make all the difference.  So yes we''re certainly capable of messing it up from here !

[Tumbleweed 38]

Did my own little prediction table last night and on a generous view for Ncl and S''land and a cautious one for us I have us surviving on goal difference. So hopefully it won''t be as tight as that.

I got Ncl to 37 max with wins v Swansea, Palace and Villa plus nicking a point v each of Soton, Liverpool and Spurs. This is unlikely I feel so a real stretch to get to 37.

I have S''land winning against Everton and Watford and getting a point against each of us, Leicester, and Stoke. Would leave them on 36.

Putting us drawing v S''land, beating Watford and getting a point against Palace and Everton leaves us on 37.

So, Shirley (!), we can of course muck it up but not looking too bad really. I agree with your comment re AN, seems like a big game man- will that give us an edge in the pressure games?

[morty 0]

[quote user="Tumbleweed"]Did my own little prediction table last night and on a generous view for Ncl and S''land and a cautious one for us I have us surviving on goal difference. So hopefully it won''t be as tight as that.

I got Ncl to 37 max with wins v Swansea, Palace and Villa plus nicking a point v each of Soton, Liverpool and Spurs. This is unlikely I feel so a real stretch to get to 37.

I have S''land winning against Everton and Watford and getting a point against each of us, Leicester, and Stoke. Would leave them on 36.

Putting us drawing v S''land, beating Watford and getting a point against Palace and Everton leaves us on 37.

So, Shirley (!), we can of course muck it up but not looking too bad really. I agree with your comment re AN, seems like a big game man- will that give us an edge in the pressure games?[/quote]My gut feeling is that there will be twists and turns, but it will go right down to the last day, it always seems to.

[Cantiaci Canary 151]

If this season teaches us anything it''s that making predictions before games is foolhardy!

I could see us losing to Sunderland but beating Arsenal! For my own sanity I try not to plot ahead ... just follow everyone''s fixtures minute by minute and see the impact on the table at full time.

[AJ 118]

Looking at this thread definitely confirms for me that so much hinges on our next two games. I can''t see us picking up many points from the last 4 games, so I''d like us to be in a great position before then by getting another 2 wins. I can see it coming down to us needing a point on the final day and playing out a bore draw, but as it stands anyone can survive (aside of Villa, of course).

How exciting!

[Yelloow Since 72 20]

Ironically, Sunderland and ourselves both play Everton and Watford in the final two games. Our home game with Watford would seem to be the best chance for a win out of those. I hope it''s settled before we play Everton away and Sunderland play Watford away.

[Tumbleweed 38]

I think it is very likely to boil down to the Sunderland game. If we win that I see it highly unlikely, barring major loss (us) and improvement (them) in form, that we will go down. If we lose it, I think we''ll struggle to stay ahead of them. A draw will in all likelihood perpetuate matters until the last day.

Of course there will be twists and turns, but I do see this one game as being very significant overall.

[WesHoolahansDefendant 0]

Lets just concentrate on beating Palace.

Its all very well trying to predict who will win what game but you only have to look at Sunderland 2 years ago and Leicester last year to realise it''s completely pointless.

Us, Newcastle or Sunderland will probably take a scalp before the end of the season and be equally as likely to lose one of the ''winnable ties''.

Let''s just win our games, then it doesn''t matter if Defoe finishes the season on 300 goals, which he could well do.

If we beat Palace and the others drop points then theres a solid chance we could practically seal it against Sunderland.

OTBC

[lappinitup 420]

If we lose at the weekend and Sunderland win it will mean Palace would be almost certain to stay up and Sunderland would be just one point behind us with a game in hand. After the euphoria of this week, would our manager be able to lift the players yet again after finding themselves back to square-one? Conversely, Sunderland would be buoyant after beating the league leaders and confident of getting a result at a nervous and subdued Carrow Road. Win that and they would be two points clear of us and still have that game in hand. Not to mention the chances of Newcastle quietly catching up during this time.Nope, I fear it will be all over for us when the ref blows the final whistle on Saturday. We''re doomed I tell ye, doomed, DOOMED! [:''(] [:''(] [:''(]

[It's Character Forming 487]

"I never make predictions, especially about the future..."

 

Paul Gascoigne.