The importance of scoring the first goal

[Year of the tiger 54]

So far this season we''ve scored the first goal 7 times. Results won 6 drawn 1

Conceded first 15 times won 0 drawn 4 lost 11.

Confidence, mental strength, ability? I don''t know but it''s pretty clear we have to score first.

[grefstad 0]

Scoring first have always been important.

Even more so when playing away.

If you play at home:

Scoring first statistically gives at least 70% chance of winning the game, maybe a bit more At least 85% of NOT losing.

If you play away:

Scoring first statistically gives around 62% chance of winning the game, while approximately 85% or slightly better to NOT lose.

Generally, the statistical chance of turning a game around is no more than 15% when you concede first, home or away.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

In the top European leagues it has long been proved that this is the overriding factor in results Tiger.

Scarily, good studies indicate that the scoring of the first goal is around 50% down to chance.

Rich clubs, well run clubs and good defences come next.

For those extolling the virtues of Redmond, attack-as-the-best-form-of-defence or superstar signings, overwhelming evidence shows that it is your weak links and unforced errors that now influence results most.

Money, fitness, science and analytics have created a much tighter spread from best to worst at the top level. Making errors, giving the ball away in the wrong areas (it is much better to not have it and be in shape), costs you far more than brilliance gives you.

Football has changed and romantics yearning after erratic, occasionally brilliant wingers, or gung-ho open spaces football will have to get used to it.

The golden days were half speed and ill-disciplined. Don''t trust your memories, go back and watch whole matches (not excerpts) on YouTube.

Norwich need above-the-curve luck and they need it in the right places. Survival still represents great success.

Parma