Even the bookies love Bournemouth

[Sooty57 414]

Just had a look at the SkyBet relegation odds. Bookies put us and Swansea at 2/1 and Bournemouth, who let''s not forget are only one point above us, at 6/1.

I know they spent a heavily in the transfer window. but we have also strengthened our squad. How can they consider the team 1 point below us to be equally likely to go down, but the team 1 point above us 3 times less likely to?

p.s. Is it just me, or does Eddie Howe remind anyone else of Ricky Gervais when he is interviewed?

[morty 0]

[quote user="Sooty57"]Just had a look at the SkyBet relegation odds. Bookies put us and Swansea at 2/1 and Bournemouth, who let''s not forget are only one point above us, at 6/1.

I know they spent a heavily in the transfer window. but we have also strengthened our squad. How can they consider the team 1 point below us to be equally likely to go down, but the team 1 point above us 3 times less likely to?

p.s. Is it just me, or does Eddie Howe remind anyone else of Ricky Gervais when he is interviewed?[/quote]Yes!Annoying pr1ck! [:D]

[sgncfc 1,330]

I think it''s probably because they have bought strikers - though of course Grabban doesn''t actually score many, Afobe is potentially a great buy.

I don''t think Bournemouth will go down either. We may dislike them but they do play good to watch football. But apart from Villa, I don''t think anyone is yet a "favourite" for relegation. The next two teams to have bad spells in that bottom 6 or 7 will be in trouble. Let''s hope it''s not us.

It''s looking like it will need 40 points to stay up this time around and the bottom few won''t be separated by much.

[It's Character Forming 1,204]

The bookies odds will be driven by punters betting so it''s really just reinforced by the public perception IMO.

[city4eva 242]

Op your post suggests you think they will go down in which case get on the 6/1 and make a killing, of course the bookies may be right and they will stay upwhich way will you go

[Barclay seats 4849 the 3rd 0]

Funny !!😀 I was thinking exactly the same last time I saw him 😂😂😂😂😂😂

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

I think they''ll stay up...

But then again, I think Newcastle, Sunderland and Swansea will all stay up..

As for us, I hope we''ll stay up but it''s very hard to predict 2 relegation slots after Villa!

I notice a 4 point gap has opened up for Sunderland since the wins for Newcastle, Swansea and Bournemouth. Perhaps they won''t make it out this time?? Still leaves one spot though..

[Highland Canary 78]

We will finish 19th, Villa and Swansea filling the other two berths. Our underperformance in the first half of the season has left us requiring wins at home against the big six teams which is too big an ask for our squad. Two wins away from home thus far is firmly relegation form. Ultimately, it was the failure in the Summer transfer window which left us with to much to do.

[Fuzzar 1,861]

That''s the spirit Highland.

[FenwayFrank 2,717]

If I was a gambler I''d put a couple of quid on Watford the way they''re playing at the moment

[Dean Coneys boots 1,531]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]We will finish 19th, Villa and Swansea filling the other two berths. Our underperformance in the first half of the season has left us requiring wins at home against the big six teams which is too big an ask for our squad. Two wins away from home thus far is firmly relegation form. Ultimately, it was the failure in the Summer transfer window which left us with to much to do.[/quote]

THE ABOVE

[Bannana Boy 32]

@HighlandCanary - "...Our underperformance in the first half of the season has left us requiring wins at home against the big six teams which is too big an ask for our squad... "

How exactly did we under perform? The normal target for survival is 40 points (although fewer are generally required). At the half-way stage this season we had 20 points.

To me that would suggest performing at an acceptable level.

[King Klose 0]

Problem is Watford only need to find 2/3 more wins to be safe.

[TCCANARY 263]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]We will finish 19th, Villa and Swansea filling the other two berths. Our underperformance in the first half of the season has left us requiring wins at home against the big six teams which is too big an ask for our squad. Two wins away from home thus far is firmly relegation form. Ultimately, it was the failure in the Summer transfer window which left us with to much to do.[/quote]

 

Our squad (without the recent purchases) managed to beat one of the ''big six'' away from home, now that the squad is being improved on who knows what will happen?

 

 

[hogesar 10,762]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]We will finish 19th, Villa and Swansea filling the other two berths. Our underperformance in the first half of the season has left us requiring wins at home against the big six teams which is too big an ask for our squad. Two wins away from home thus far is firmly relegation form. Ultimately, it was the failure in the Summer transfer window which left us with to much to do.[/quote]

Based on the confidence oozing from this post of yours Highland, I presume you''ve put a couple grand on Sunderland to stay up? 19th is also rather specific...

[Making Plans 957]

[quote user="Al Harrington"]Problem is Watford only need to find 2/3 more wins to be safe.[/quote]3 wins would only put them on 38 points & I don''t think that is safeBut using the same logic, as were only 6 points behind them, we''ll be safe with 5 wins, and that''s not impossibleFrom now on it''s all about momentum, either positive or negative. Loose 3 on the trot & you''re in big trouble but win 3 on the trot and you stand a good chance of being ok.Nobody from 12th down is really safe

[Branston Pickle 4,149]

I''m not too sure where our ''underperformance'' comes from - if, like Highland, you predicted we''d be relegated all along surely we over performed in the first half of the season?

I dont hold much store by league placings until mid-way, but I think I''m right that we were only in the bottom three once and sat ahead of Boremouth most weeks. I could t really care less what the bookies or other supporters say, but you''d hope our own fans might be a little more optimistic.

[te94 0]

We have underperformed to only be on 20 points at the half way stage of the season.

Fixture wise, the first half was considerably easier than the second half.

Whereas we have played most of the lower teams at home and the higher teams away; we must now do the opposite.

We needed to be on at least 25 points plus by the midpoint to be on course to achieve 40 points.

[lake district canary 4,830]

[quote user="tedwards94"]Whereas we have played most of the lower teams at home and the higher teams away; we must now do the opposite. [/quote]That could be a good thing.  If we can win some of these home matches against higher opposition, then the confdence that would breed should see us ok, especially if we can pick up a few points away.   There are no easy fixtures whoever you are playing and this season in particular the so called big clubs are not havng it all their own way.

[ron obvious 1,711]

Not sure about that LDC. As the season grinds on, the ''bigger'' clubs (certainly those with bigger resources) tend to come into their own.

Having said that, I still suspect teams like Watford & Leicester won''t maintain their form. So perhaps a few ''unexpected'' results to come

Whatever, I still reckon a roller coaster ride with everything to play for. Let''s hope our players have the guts for the battle!

OTBC!!

[sgncfc 1,330]

Whether we survive or not will come down to the 6 game period in March and April when we go to Swansea, West Brom and Palace and have Newcastle, Sunderland and Watford at home.

All winnable, but if we win 3 of those and draw another we only need 7 points from our other 10 games.

It will be close.

[King Klose 0]

[quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="Al Harrington"]Problem is Watford only need to find 2/3 more wins to be safe.[/quote]3 wins would only put them on 38 points & I don''t think that is safeBut using the same logic, as were only 6 points behind them, we''ll be safe with 5 wins, and that''s not impossibleFrom now on it''s all about momentum, either positive or negative. Loose 3 on the trot & you''re in big trouble but win 3 on the trot and you stand a good chance of being ok.Nobody from 12th down is really safe[/quote]

But you''re not taking into account draws. I say around 3 wins because you''d then expect maybe 3/4 draws with that, so 41/42 points would see them fine.

[FenwayFrank 2,717]

Those games will be huuuuge

[TIL 1010 5,246]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]We will finish 19th, Villa and Swansea filling the other two berths. Our underperformance in the first half of the season has left us requiring wins at home against the big six teams which is too big an ask for our squad. Two wins away from home thus far is firmly relegation form. Ultimately, it was the failure in the Summer transfer window which left us with to much to do.[/quote]You mean 20 points from the first half 19 games had the writing on the wall for you then ? Blimey so 40 points at that rate after 38 games has us certainties for the drop.

[Trent Canary 0]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]Ultimately, it was the failure in the Summer transfer window which left us with to much to do.[/quote]

Did I wake up in June?!

[lappinitup 629]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]We will finish 19th, Villa and Swansea filling the other two berths. Our underperformance in the first half of the season has left us requiring wins at home against the big six teams which is too big an ask for our squad. Two wins away from home thus far is firmly relegation form. Ultimately, it was the failure in the Summer transfer window which left us with to much to do.[/quote]Have you started organising your annual relegation party yet Highland?

[CanaryOne 0]

[quote user="Branston Pickle"]I''m not too sure where our ''underperformance'' comes from - if, like Highland, you predicted we''d be relegated all along surely we over performed in the first half of the season?

I dont hold much store by league placings until mid-way, but I think I''m right that we were only in the bottom three once and sat ahead of Boremouth most weeks. I could t really care less what the bookies or other supporters say, but you''d hope our own fans might be a little more optimistic.[/quote]Surely that last sentence is just another way of saying lets look at things through our yellow and green specs Branston  ? and to call Bournemouth Boremouth is a little amiss as their football is far pacier and more exciting than City''s who usually cut out a goalscoring chance about twice a match . Go by what you see on the pitch instead of what your heart wants and Norwich finish 2nd bottom , i like others do not see Newcastle going down its just not going to happen , our best hopes are Sunderland and Swansea but we are going to have to learn to win away from home and history tells us thats a rare occurence at this level .Something that would help would be to ditch Mbokani and Jerome and actually play people who know how to score when a chance comes along , pinning all our hopes on goals from midfielders is just so wrong its laughable .

[hogesar 10,762]

[quote user="lappinitup"][quote user="Highland Canary"]We will finish 19th, Villa and Swansea filling the other two berths. Our underperformance in the first half of the season has left us requiring wins at home against the big six teams which is too big an ask for our squad. Two wins away from home thus far is firmly relegation form. Ultimately, it was the failure in the Summer transfer window which left us with to much to do.[/quote]Have you started organising your annual relegation party yet Highland?[/quote]

I heard Neil Lennon is a special guest..

[Sooty57 414]

city4eva wrote:

"Op your post suggests you think they will go down in which case get on the 6/1 and make a killing, of course the bookies may be right and they will stay up"

I don''t think my post suggested that I thought they would go down - that was not the intention. I just find it rather strange that with only 1 point between us, and 16 games more to go, that they are considered 3 times more likely than us to stay up.

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="tedwards94"]We have underperformed to only be on 20 points at the half way stage of the season.

Fixture wise, the first half was considerably easier than the second half.

Whereas we have played most of the lower teams at home and the higher teams away; we must now do the opposite.

We needed to be on at least 25 points plus by the midpoint to be on course to achieve 40 points.[/quote]Nonsense.An illusion that is easily refuted by the facts.These are the fixtures remaining:-

   Teams and games left                                                  Against Top half teams                                                       Against Bottom half teamsBournemouth  ( 8 H  8A)                                               8  ( 5 at home 3 away)                                                        8  (  3 at home  5 away)Norwich        (9H  7A)                                                   9  ( 5 at home 4 away)                                                         7  ( 4 at home  3 away)Swansea        (7H  9A)                                                  9  ( 4 at home 5 away)                                                         7  ( 3 at home  4 away)Newcastle      (7H 9A)                                                  7  ( 3  at home  4 away)                                                        9  ( 4  at home 5 away)Sunderland    (9H  7A)                                                  9  ( 5 at home  4 away)                                                        7  ( 4 at home  3 away)

Sorry but I fail to detect anything much that makes our remaining games look any more difficult than any of our opponents.Even if we look at this list as a mini league in itself (and exclude Villa) it is impossible to say that we have a disadvantage in that we have 3 games against the fellow strugglers.Norwich           2 H  1ABournemouth  1H   2ASwansea          1H  2ANewcastle        3H  1ASunderland      1H  2A     

The theory that we have a more difficult run in is patent nonsense.