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djdalej

Newcastle Result Ruined AN

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Before we lost 6-1 to Newcastle, we were playing without fear and enjoying it. Yes, we lost matches but we were an attacking force. Playing with confidence and going for the win. Then the freak 6-1 at Newcastle happened, we got whipped. I think it dented AN confidence as we have not played as attacking every since. Yes we got a couple of wins over December, but I think he does not want to be embarrassed again, but it''s worked in reverse . He''s told the players he never wants to see that again, now they are cautious and tentative about making a mistake, and their confidence is drained

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It was 6-2 actually.
Anyway I think AN was right to change after Newcastle, we''d be even worse problems now if he hadn''t.

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It''s called learning from experience, in this case not just the experience of Newcastle (a) but of where we were and where we were heading after 11 games. The process is on-going.

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"]It''s called learning from experience, in this case not just the experience of Newcastle (a) but of where we were and where we were heading after 11 games. The process is on-going. [/quote]What''s been learnt from the experience?  Results and performances have become worse![:|]

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In terms of points gained, performances improved radically over games 12-22, entirely vindicating the change of strategy. Factors other than change of strategy almost certainly account for the deterioration since then.

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In fairness I think AN has rarely made mistakes aside of 1 or 2 games which were really tactically naive. There''s so many games I can recall where players have switched off or made mistakes to cost us points. Yes I do believe the Newcastle game had something to do with it but that was probably more down to affecting player confidence than AN''s tactic . Agree with others though, things had to change.

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Al Harrington wrote:

"What a fool. The Liverpool game was the one that done the damage for me."

1. Why the need to be so insulting to somebody who has a different opinion to you.

2. "Fool" or not, I happen to agree with him. Two "fools" then. The Newcy result marked a change in strategy and it''s been a lot of downhill since then.

3. The Liverpool result emphasised the extent to which AN seems incapable of constructing a defence decent enough to perform efficiently at this level. But we knew that anyhow.

He needs help from an older head.

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"]In terms of points gained, performances improved radically over games 12-22, entirely vindicating the change of strategy. Factors other than change of strategy almost certainly account for the deterioration since then. [/quote]Err, no.  Of the six games immediately follwoing the 6-2 our results were won 1, drawn 1 & lost 4.  Sorry, but where is this radical improvement that vindicated ''the change in strategy''???Stretch this to ten games, over 2 months since the 6-2 and our results were won 2 drawn 2, lost 6.  Stretching the term ''radical'' here (over 2 months since the 6-2), but where''s the improvement?In the ten games prior to the 6-2 (coincidentally the first ten games of the season) our results were as follows - Won 4, drawn 3, lost 3.

[*-)]

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Er, not no, yes!  Here are the stats:After 11 games:   Points 9, GD -8, Points per game 0.82After 22 games:   Points 23, GD -14, Points per game 1.05So, over games 12 to 22 we gained 14 points (compared to 9 points over games 1 to 11), and our goal difference improved to -6 (compared to -8). The points gained per game (games 12-22) shot up from 0.82 (games 1 to 11) to 1.27, representing a 55% improvement on what had gone before.

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@norfolkbroadslimI don''t know what stats you were looking at but the Newcastle game was game 9, not game 11, and at that point our record (over the first 8 games) was: won 2 (not 4), drawn 3, lost 3, Pts 9.

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"]Er, not no, yes!  Here are the stats:After 11 games:   Points 9, GD -8, Points per game 0.82After 22 games:   Points 23, GD -14, Points per game 1.05So, over games 12 to 22 we gained 14 points (compared to 9 points over games 1 to 11), and our goal difference improved to -6 (compared to -8). The points gained per game (games 12-22) shot up from 0.82 (games 1 to 11) to 1.27, representing a 55% improvement on what had gone before.[/quote]Err, no!  Point 1 - you''re including league games onlyPoint 2 - you''re including the 6-2 in the early results, rather than prior to and post the 6-2Point 3 - and rather puzzlingly, you''re also including the 2 league defeats that immediately followed the 6-2 in the in the first set of stats??? Why?  Point 4 - you''re also directly linking 3 wins from 4 games that happened 2 months and more after the 6-2, to that 6-2 defeat, and claiming that this proves that there is a direct correlation between the two and hence that this proves that the change in strategy immediately following the 6-2 showed and radical and vast improvement in results and performances.  Where is your evidence for this correlation?  Where was the radical improvement?

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"]@norfolkbroadslimI don''t know what stats you were looking at but the Newcastle game was game 9, not game 11, and at that point our record (over the first 8 games) was: won 2 (not 4), drawn 3, lost 3, Pts 9.[/quote][url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/norwich-city/results[/url]

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The stats:

Before and including Newcastle (league only):

P9 - W2 - D3 - L4 - GF14 - GA20 - Pts9

Average GF = 1.56

Average GA = 2.22

Average Pts per game = 1.00

After Newcastle:

P16 - W4 - D2 - L10 - GF14 - GA28 - Pts14

Average GF = 0.88

Average GA = 1.75

Average Pts per game = 0.88

 

Whilst initially I agreed that maybe we should be a bit more defensive after the Newcastle game, upon reflection of these stats it seems as though playing more risky has been more beneficial than trying to be a bit more solid. We were unlucky not to have gotten more points from our first 9 games yes, but reality is we didn''t get those points so it doesn''t even matter. So we do need to go back to a more attacking side, which I think we are trying to do now but not to the extent as the start of the season. We need to obviously stop shipping as many goals as we have done in our last 5. It''s just finding the balance now, we''ve set up attacking and we weren''t getting the points, we set up more defensively and we''re not getting the points. With the signings we''ve just made I think it will make the balance between attack and defence easier to find and hopefully over the next month we really begin to find that consistency we all crave! Add in a bit of luck that we are due in return from the beginning of the season and we''ll soon start seeing the points racking up!

 

Note: The strength of schedule has not been taken into account and it could be argued that we were better in the first 9 games due to the opposition we were facing. 

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You also have to remember that this was about the time we stopped running around enough and our tackle count was low.

I can also exclusively reveal that we haven''t won a toss all season so our influence in playing direction has been severely compromised.

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[quote user="TCCANARY"]

I can also exclusively reveal that we haven''t won a toss all season so our influence in playing direction has been severely compromised.[/quote]I blame Russell Martin. He''s the tosser and he can''t even get that right.......

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@norfolkbroadslimOf course I''m not including cup games, any more than I''m including pre-season friendlies. The claim is that the change of strategy was needed because to continue as we were meant almost certain relegation. You don''t get league points for winning cup games.Everyone agrees that the Newcastle game was a turning point for AN but a change of strategy can''t be fully implemented from one game to the next. If you look at WBA (h), there was in fact very little difference in terms of team selection, setup and pattern of play compared to what had gone before. That was certainly not the case for game 11, Man City (a), but that was a one-off in which we played 3 at the back. The Swansea game (game 11) was the first genuinely new-style game, with a back four, a midfield of Howson, Tettey, ONeill and Brady, and Redmond not even on the bench. If you want to compare the 9 (old-style) games up to Newcastle (a), with the first 9 genuinely new-style games -- Swansea (h) through to Southampton (h) -- the improvement is even more marked. As regards your point 4, there have been many posts claiming that the position we now find ourselves in is due primarily to AN''s change of approach post-Newcastle (a). I''m simply pointing out that the change of strategy actually led to a marked improvement in performance measured in terms of points gained. If we had simply carried on as before, the evidence is our current situation would be even more dire. This also suggests that if we are looking to explain our recent poor run of results, we need to look at factors other than the tactical change that was implemented after the Newcastle game.

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@The EngineerYes, the Golden Grail is greater defensive solidity than before, combined with greater attacking potency than currently. But that is very different from advocating a return to the approach we saw in the early part of the season. Getting the balance right defeated Hughton; if Neil can''t find it either, IMO he needs to err on the side of defensive solidity.

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[quote user="Ginja"]It was 6-2 actually.
Anyway I think AN was right to change after Newcastle, we''d be even worse problems now if he hadn''t.
[/quote]

Can we be much worse

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"]@norfolkbroadslimOf course I''m not including cup games, any more than I''m including pre-season friendlies. The claim is that the change of strategy was needed because to continue as we were meant almost certain relegation. You don''t get league points for winning cup games.Everyone agrees that the Newcastle game was a turning point for AN but a change of strategy can''t be fully implemented from one game to the next. If you look at WBA (h), there was in fact very little difference in terms of team selection, setup and pattern of play compared to what had gone before. That was certainly not the case for game 11, Man City (a), but that was a one-off in which we played 3 at the back. The Swansea game (game 11) was the first genuinely new-style game, with a back four, a midfield of Howson, Tettey, ONeill and Brady, and Redmond not even on the bench. If you want to compare the 9 (old-style) games up to Newcastle (a), with the first 9 genuinely new-style games -- Swansea (h) through to Southampton (h) -- the improvement is even more marked. As regards your point 4, there have been many posts claiming that the position we now find ourselves in is due primarily to AN''s change of approach post-Newcastle (a). I''m simply pointing out that the change of strategy actually led to a marked improvement in performance measured in terms of points gained. If we had simply carried on as before, the evidence is our current situation would be even more dire. This also suggests that if we are looking to explain our recent poor run of results, we need to look at factors other than the tactical change that was implemented after the Newcastle game.[/quote]Well you carry on with your re-write of history and I''ll consider the reality of our situation [:|]

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