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norfolkbroadslim

League goals scored and conceded pre & post the 6-2 @ Newcastle

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I looked at these stats in response to a discussion about the Newcastle game being the turning point, but thought they warranted their own thread.For arguements sake, taking Newcastle as the turning point the following are the league goals scored and conceded pre & post that infamous 6-2 defeat - Pre the 6-2 - PL8 F12 A14 GD-2.  Goals scored @ 1.5 goals per game, Goals conceded at 1.75 goals per game.Post the 6-2 - PL16 F14 A28 GD-14.  Goals scored @ 0.875 goals per game, Goals conceded at 1.75 goals per game.

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Those first eight games were: 
home - Palace, Stoke, Bournemouth & Leicester
away - Sunderland, Southampton, Liverpool & West Ham.
I think they look relatively benign relative to those that followed like, amongst others:
home - Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool & Spurs
away - Man City, Chelsea, Man Utd & Spurs

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These stats would suggest that since the Newcastle game our defensive performance has arguably improved as the goals per game is the same but the opposition was of higher quality. This would also explain why the goals scored has declined as we having playing teams with better defenders.

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I''m absolutely amazed at how this board has become almost Hutonesque with preoccupation with defence. I see a huge difference in the way the team play whether Russell Martin is cb or not. But that doesn''t just cut off at Newcastle because he''s been back at cb since then notably against Liverpool. The results are interesting.

 

Without Martin at cb - P13 W4 D1 L8 F8 A20 Pts13

With Martin at cb - P11 W2 D3 L6 F19 A27 Pts9

(I didn''t count the Everton game)

 

So without Russ at cb we have 1 point per game and with Russ at cb we only have .82 points per game.

Without Russ at cb we have conceded 20 goals at 1.53 per game and with Russ at cb we have conceded 27 goals at 2.45 per game.

 

Without Russ at cb we have scored 8 goals at .61 per game and with Russ at cb we have scored 19 goals at 1.73 per game.

 

Without Russ at cb we''ve kept three clean sheets and with Russ at cb we haven''t any clean sheets.

 

Without Russ at cb we''ve failed to score in 6 matches and with Russ at cb we''ve failed to score in one match. 

 

I''ve got my own thoughts about this from what I have observed at games. Would be interested in what others think. Needless to say I''m hoping that Klose will show some of the positive aspects of Martin''s game as well as less of the negative.

 

But I can''t help but say that whilst this forum is a place to criticise the manager we should do him the courtesy of trying to understand why he does what he does instead of calling him clueless.

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Well, while I''ll leave some of you to bask in the glory of ''our improved defensive performance'', I will concernedly consider the reality of conceding twice as many goals as we''re scoring post the Newcastle 6-2.  Not that it takes much consideration mind you as conceding twice as many goals as you''re scoring (especially when you''re averaging less than 1 goal per game) will lead to one certainty come the end of the season......

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I have to add a different stat since Newcastle that some of you wont like

With Ruddy

P 5 F 3 A 5 GD -2 Goals for per game = 0.6 goals against per game = 1

With Rudd

P 11 F 11 A 23 GD - 12 Goals per game = 0.9 goals against per game = 2.09

And just to add to this in case people thought Ruddy had it easy his games were WBA ( h ) Man C ( a ) Swansea ( h ) Chelsea ( a ) Arsenal ( h )

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Nutty your obsession with Martin at centre back is now bordering on the perverse. For a variety of reasons, he is now almost unselectable in that position.

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[quote user="Jacko"]Nutty your obsession with Martin at centre back is now bordering on the perverse. For a variety of reasons, he is now almost unselectable in that position.[/quote]

 

Thanks Jacko.

 

I have no obsession with Martin at centreback. But I do have an obsession about the team playing with no undue fear. I do have an obsession about players like Wes and Redders receiving the ball in areas they can hurt the opposition rather than too deep to make a difference with our striker too isolated to matter. Your obsession in being one eyed is so peverse I think it must be in the Bury water.

 

Back in the late 90s before Worthy we would be much better defensively in the games Iwan played centre forward. I bet you didn''t notice that either. It''s not about playing Martin at Centre back. It''s about playing someone who''s as brave as Martin who will hold a high line like he does and not sit back like Bennett and Bassong in those Hughtonesque performances you didn''t USED to like.

 

 

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I''m not one eyed at all Nutty, I think it is you who is one eyed and these are my reasons why.

The bottom line is that if you select Martin in a home game at Carrow Road at centre half the reaction is going to be overwhelming negative from the crowd and that is going to transmit itself to the team. Potentially creating the fear and panic you keep referring to.

That is a relevant factor that managers do and must consider. There were times during our glorious 92/93 season that Mike Walker didn''t play the sweeper system at home because he feared it would be perceived as to negative.

You talk about Martin''s fearlessness but what do we know about his state of mind. He''s bound to be feeling very low on confidence following what has happened in that Liverpool game.

You also clearly like Martin ''s passing ability and I too like a centre half who I can play the ball out. As a centre half myself (at admittedly a terrible level) I fully appreciate the guts it takes to bring the ball out and play.

But I think there is a trend in modern football where we put the cart before the horse and we forget that the primary function of a defender is to actually defend. I personally think Ryan Bennett is a much better ''pure'' defender and that is what we need at the moment.

I was sat up high in the home end at Villa and the issue wasn''t our inability to pass the ball out of defence. It was the fact that our setup and game plan was wrong. With Mulumbu and O''Neil in midfield we''d come to stifle and frustrated. Yet with Howson and Wes wide we didn''t have pace on the counter attack to profit when the opportunities arose. That was the reason we didn''t get the ball in advanced positions enough on Saturday.

I think the stats you''ve also mentioned with regard to Martin are somewhat misleading. We did have a very generous start - in which he was a fixture at centre back. It is therefore very unfair to make a comparison on those grounds.

But hey ho. It''s opinions and shows just how tough the conundrum in for Alex Neil.

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There''s an argument for playing him at right back. On the basis that none of Wisdom, Martin, Whittaker or Pinto have really laid claim to that position. But to be honest they''re all much of a muchness in my eyes.

As a result, Our season will not realistically stand or fall on which one of those occupies that position.

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I don''t really have an argument for playing Russ at rb. He''s ok but I prefer Whittaker. Maybe Pinto will be an upgrade on Whittaker defensively but the jury''s still out on that one.

 

But then I wasn''t arguing that Russ should play cb either. Just that someone who is brave enough to hold a higher line. And that isn''t Bennett and Bassong as we''ve seen for far too long. I was hoping Klose and Bassong but as I understand, and you were there, Alex Neil was on the touchline imploring the team further forward at Villa it didn''t happen on Saurday.

 

I would love to debate this with you while considering the points I DID make on that post. And don''t be too ready to dis the games Martin played where we scored the goals. The only game we failed to score was Southampton away where we were down to 10 for much of the game. The other games we failed to score without Martin at cb included 0-3 at Bournemouth, 0-2 at Watford and 0-2 at Villa.

 

 

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I agree about Whittaker. I honestly don''t see what he''s done to be completely out of favour. He''s been no worse than any other players tried at full back so far this season.

I am not out to completely assassinate Martin. I''m 26 years old and he''s been a constant (along with Wes) in the best Norwich sides I''ve seen. I was too young to remember the Norwich sides of the early 90s. I love the man to bits but this is becoming a bit Gary Holt circa 2004/2005 - a bridge too far for a superb and honest pro.

I take your point about the blanks we''ve drawn when he doesn''t play at centre back and I get what you''re saying as to why it might be relevant. His distribution is better than Bennett''s and clearly that does help us to construct more attacks of greater quality.

But it cuts both ways, we''ve also had our best run of form over Christmas with wins against Man Utd, Villa and Southampton when he wasn''t at centre back. We also looked much more solid during those games and only conceded once.

Personally I would now pick our best left sided defender (Klose) and our best right sided defender (in my opinion that''s Bennett). I would see where that takes us for a couple of games. The sad reality is that none of the personel are probably good enough - hence the wholesale changes.

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Jacko. My post wasn''t about who I felt should play. More about how I felt we should play. And possibly, because I don''t know, understanding why Alex Neil continually goes back to doing something that people say "he''s clueless" for doing.

 

I see Bennett and Bassong defending deeper than Martin and Bassong. Which in turn I see the midfield deeper and the striker more isolated. So when players like Wes get the ball they are too deep to hurt the opposition. Then suddenly we played Liverpool. Martin kept a higher line. Wes, Naismith and even Pinto looked dangerous and we scored 4 goals. But of course the payback was that we conceded 5. But what about if we''d had a better centrehalf than Russ who was brave enough to hold a higher line. Might we have won the game 4-3 or 3-1? And what about if it had been bennett and bassong? What would the likely score have been?

 

 

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Nutty, I understand entirely the points you are making and I can see what you''re driving at.

I understand the attraction of having a passing centre half who gets us high up the pitch - hence why I keep mentioning Martin because that''s ultimately who it boils down to if you want to play that way based on the players we have available to us.

It does help create chances for us to score goals. If you can get a centre back who steps into midfield and can create an overload it''s deadly.

Unfortunately, they''re are very few of those who combine that prowess with being a brilliant defender. Unfortunately, they''re called people like Vincent Kompany or Franco Baresi and they''re some of the greatest defenders of the modern era.

But ultimately, it''s about balancing risk and reward. I think the risk of playing Martin now far outweighs the reward of doing so for a variety of reasons which I''ve mentioned above.

I would prefer the safer option of Bennett for that reason. He may not create as much as Martin but I think he''ll cost us much less defensively than Martin will. I think there''s also little doubt that we''re relying on Klose to come off and be the defensive leader you''ve described. If he doesn''t we''re basically down.

We will never know what would have happened in that Liverpool game had Bennett played. To be honest, our failings weren''t just at centre half (although the failings there were enormous) in that game but also in midfield.

Had Tettey not been ill, I am adamant we would have won that game convincingly, but it wasn''t to be. You simply can''t be as open as we were against top quality like Firminho.

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I still haven''t given up on Klose being capable of being an upgrade on Russ. Spurs was not a game to judge. But I was disappointed that we defended so deeply at Villa. Time will tell. But please stopwith the Martin at cb stuff. I''m not advocating that.

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You can''t write the guy off after two games and I think he should only be judged when he''s actually played on his stronger left side as well.

It definitely does make a difference, whilst I wasn''t Michael Turner''s biggest fan while he was here I think he was made to look much worse than he was by being played out of position last season. I fear this could also happen to Klose.

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