Ricardo's relegation review (26 games)

[westcoastcanary 0]

Ricardo wrote: "It  is no surprise that having a poor goal difference increases your likelihood of relegation." With respect, it is not having a poor GD that increases your likelihood of relegation, but the deficiencies (on and off the field) which have led to that poor GD. Generalising the point, stats are one thing, cause and effect another. What''s interesting, as Ricardo says, is that just 12 games are usually enough to identify those clubs with (to use a medical analogy) the weakest constitutions, the sickliest in the league. By game 26, as Ricardo says, the diagnosis (and occasional mis-diagnosis, e.g Chelsea this season) will have been amply confirmed.So, looking ahead, the question is not "How often has a club in the bottom six after 26 games escaped?" but "Which three of the six have the best chance of recovering sufficiently to survive?" At this stage in the season, with the January transfer window closed, the general health of the club itself, though not irrelevant, is less important than the quality of the manager and his coaching staff and the players. Forget the stats, look at the people.

[Badger 2,405]

Thanks for your work on this Ricardo - a fascinating and stimulating read.

[ricardo 7,380]

[quote user=" Badger"]Thanks for your work on this Ricardo - a fascinating and stimulating read.[/quote]Thank you Badger, and everybody else for their comments.The stats of course can only tell us about what has happened in the past and thereby give us some sort of handle on future probabilities. In a league where anybody can beat anybody on their day we must remember that the result of any individual game remains a glorious uncertainty and with a dozen games left nobody yet knows what our fate will be.Onward and upwardsHopefully.[Y]