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Ricardo's relegation review (26 games)

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Regular Forum members will know by now about my long held theory which

states that by the 12 game mark we can already see how the Premier

League relegation fight will pan out. My research found that 85% of

subsequently relegated clubs had gained a point per game or fewer at

this stage of the season and our inclusion at the 12 game (8/11/15)

stage predicted trouble for us.Norwich     12ptsChelsea      11ptsNwcstle      10ptsBrnmth         8ptsSndrlnd         6ptsVilla             3ptsI

think all were agreed that Chelsea were in a slightly false position

given their known strengths, were most unlikely to be still featuring by

the seasons end. This seemed like sound judgement as by Xmas they had

been replaced in the bottom six by Swansea who were only a point clear

with 13pts at the 12 game stage.Now that we have reached the 26

game mark (12 games to go), I thought it would be the ideal time to see

how the predictions from my theory are actually turning out. The table

now reads:-Brnmth          28ptsSwansea         27ptsNorwich         24ptsNwcstle          24ptsSndrland         23ptsVilla               16ptsWe

can see that while there has been some movement within the group nobody

has moved out or moved in (other than the expected swapping of Chelsea

and Swansea). Those that were in trouble at the 12 game mark are still

in trouble, just as my theory predicted.Is it possible that a mid table team might still be relegated?After

my post Xmas update (20 games) I received quite a bit of flak for

dismissing quite categorically the claims of several posters who thought

teams like Southampton and Everton who were hovering just above my

predicted group would be sucked in. My opinion was that the goal

differences and goals conceded for these teams showed that there was

never any likelihood of this happening. I was also of the opinion that

WBA and Watford had stronger defences with the ability to keep clean

sheets and were also unlikely to be drawn in. This seems to have been

born out by recent results.Further research shows that since the

38 game format was instituted, 60 teams have been relegated and only 3

of those were not in the bottom six by the 26 game mark. In other words

their is now only a 5% chance of seeing somebody drop in free fall from

mid table and be relegated The 3 unfortunate teams that met this fate

were Blackpool (2010/11), Ipswich (2001/02) and Sunderland (1996/97) and

in all three of those cases they would have needed 40 points to avoid

the drop.So How many points are needed to stay up?In

20 seasons of the 38 game format the average points total for the 18th

(relegated) team is 35.2 and it is a fact that there have only been 4

occasions when 38 points has not been enough to survive.2010/11    Blackpool            relegated with  39pts2002/03    West Ham            relegated with  42pts1997/98    Bolton                 relegated with  40pts1996/97    Sndrlnd               relegated with   40ptsThere have been two other occasions when teams went down on 38 points but inferior goal difference.2006/07    Sheff Utd        38pts   minus 23 GD1995/96    Man City        38pts   minus 25 GD.So

to put that into context in 14 out of 20 seasons (70% of the time) 37

points would have easily kept you up and if you want to include goal

difference, 38 points would have been sufficient in 80% of all seasons.Is there any reason to suppose that more than 38 points will be needed this season?I have read several posts claiming that a high total will be needed this season but with no more evidence than a gut feeling. While

it is always possible that there might be a late rush of points I can''t

find anything at the 26 game stage that points to it happening this season. Over 20 seasons

the  average points totals after 26 games for 16th, 17th and 18th

position are as follows. (to the nearest half point)16th     27 points17th     24 points18th     22.5 pointsAnd this season16th    27 points17th    24 points18th    24 points.So

very little to go on at present other than to say this season looks

fairly average and 38 points has a high probability of being enough.What about goal differenceHistorically, In half of all seasons the three worst goal differences have been relegated. In the other half its usually three of the worst four. It  is no surprise that having a poor goal difference increases your likelihood of relegation.So who will be relegatedVilla for certain, barring a miracle exceeding the proportions of last seasons Leicester City performance. Surely they are down.Bournemouth and Swansea will probably escape. Four points and goal difference is a good advantage for Bournemouth at this stage and Swansea have the stronger defence.Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland? Looking at the stats alone (points, goal difference, run in) it is impossible to say anything other than that it must be odds on that two of this three will go. Its going to be unbelievably close, but we always knew that didn''t we?Any straws to clutch at?Newcastle and Sunderland have to come to Carrow Rd, but that''s about all.Any negatives?When we are challenging for promotion we almost always win through but when we are fighting relegation we almost always fail. The only positive I can remember in this respect is 1972/73, on all other occasions we tend to just fade away.I very much hope I''m wrong but I fear it will be Villa, Sunderland and us and the fact that my relegation theory has been proved correct again is very little consolation.

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[quote user="Johnny Stump"]Great stuff Ricardo.[/quote]Sorry about the font size going loopy towards the end. I posted it before editing.[:$]

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Thanks for the analysis, ricardo. I would add the first Roeder season as one in which, from a far worse position than now, we climbed out of trouble and avoided the drop.

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Excellent post Ricardo, I''m one of those who thought we will need 40 points.

I admit that your factual based report above is pretty conclusive but there are three teams as you indicate in trouble, but I still think Swans are there too.

I''ll agree that anything over 38 points should be enough.

Thanks.

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[quote user="Indy"]Excellent post Ricardo, I''m one of those who thought we will need 40 points.

I admit that your factual based report above is pretty conclusive but there are three teams as you indicate in trouble, but I still think Swans are there too.

I''ll agree that anything over 38 points should be enough.

Thanks.[/quote]Yes indeed but all we have to go on are historical probabilities and nothing is set in stone yet. Leicester proved that escapes from seemingly impossible positions are possible. It would be nice if it were us for a change.At the moment I am wearing my positive and negative coats on alternate days. Tomorrow I hope to find another straw to clutch.[:D]

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Can''t argue with this.

 

My negatives at the moment are that our defence is too shambolic and of the teams at risk, we''re the one in the worst form.  Sunderland are showing signs of improvement.  Newcastle have a manager that I don''t rate (good for us) but have a better quality squad IMO than either us or Sunderland, so they''re capable of pulling out a result against anyone, home or away.

 

Swansea are, hopefully, weak enough to get caught up in the relegation scrap properly.  Bournemouth, as you say, have got a bit of a buffer, but aren''t really that great.

 

At least we''re currently just above the drop zone (on GD, amazingly enough).  It''s in our hands.  Can we tighten up our defence ?  I think that''s what''s needed.  When I''ve made this comment before on other threads, some have said they think that''s not possible and that we have to accept we''re going to carry on leaking goals.  Well, if that''s right. I think we''re sunk.  For me, looking back to the way we were playing in December, there was nothing magic about it - we played our best defenders, tightened up, didn''t concede stupid goals.  If we can do that again, we''ve a fighting chance - hopefully with Klose, better than that.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]Thanks for the analysis, ricardo. I would add the first Roeder season as one in which, from a far worse position than now, we climbed out of trouble and avoided the drop.[/quote]Yes, that was the Championship and although we had a particularly poor start we were out of trouble by the end of January and were never in the relegation mix after that. What I was talking about is where we find ourselves now, in trouble and with games running out. We don''t have much history of saving ourselves from that position.

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[quote user="Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB"]I have thought for a while that the 37/38 point mark will be enough to stay up, I have also thought for a while that we will full just short of that target. We can only hope for a marked improvement, particularly against Sunderland, Newcastle, Swansea and WBA.......[/quote]There is also every chance that others will fall short of it as well. 36 points has been enough to stay up 40% of the time.

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]Thanks for the analysis, ricardo. I would add the first Roeder season as one in which, from a far worse position than now, we climbed out of trouble and avoided the drop.[/quote]Yes, that was the Championship and although we had a particularly poor start we were out of trouble by the end of January and were never in the relegation mix after that. What I was talking about is where we find ourselves now, in trouble and with games running out. We don''t have much history of saving ourselves from that position.[/quote]We only made ourself safe from relegation by beating QPR in our penultimate game.The brilliant run that got us from rock-bottom was followed in the spring by losing 7 out of 10 games, so we were then back in the relegation mix with two games to go.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]Thanks for the analysis, ricardo. I would add the first Roeder season as one in which, from a far worse position than now, we climbed out of trouble and avoided the drop.[/quote]Yes, that was the Championship and although we had a particularly poor start we were out of trouble by the end of January and were never in the relegation mix after that. What I was talking about is where we find ourselves now, in trouble and with games running out. We don''t have much history of saving ourselves from that position.[/quote]We only made ourself safe from relegation by beating QPR in our penultimate game.The brilliant run that got us from rock-bottom was followed in the spring by losing 7 out of 10 games, so we were then back in the relegation mix with two games to go.[/quote]Yes, that was a very strange season. Eleven teams scored 58 points or fewer (46 games).

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Could Crystal Palace be drawn into the mix? They are dropping like a stone without a win in the last nine games and of their remaining games eight are against teams higher in the league. Of the four games against lower position teams, three are away from home.

Still in the FA Cup, CP are a dark horse for relegation.

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"Could Crystal Palace be drawn into the mix? They are dropping like a stone without a win in the last nine games and of their remaining games eight are against teams higher in the league. Of the four games against lower position teams, three are away from home.

Still in the FA Cup, CP are a dark horse for relegation"

There is often a side who descends from the pack after a poor run of results towards the end of the season and I had thought WBA might be that side, but they had a surprise win last time out.

Palace would seem to have a decent buffer, but your information suggests, if their present form persists, with a fairly tough run-in, it is not beyond the reams of possibility that they could become relegation candidates. A cup run can be a hindrance as well.

Of course, if it had not been for Mr. Hooper and his first day display of dodgy reffing, that buffer would not be as big. Hooper denied us at least a point and donated Palace three.

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[quote user="Rock The Boat"]Could Crystal Palace be drawn into the mix? They are dropping like a stone without a win in the last nine games and of their remaining games eight are against teams higher in the league. Of the four games against lower position teams, three are away from home.

Still in the FA Cup, CP are a dark horse for relegation.[/quote]If Ricardo is right - and I have no reason to doubt the great man - It''s more than likely Palace only needs 6 points to be safe.I know they''ve had a bad run since New Years, but they''re going to get 6 points.It will be interesting to see how they go next season though. The year has taken a very familiar Pardew track, in that he always starts bright, then slides, and at any club he''s been at, he''s never really turned a sliding team around.

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Another great analysis Ricardo thank you

We are in the mix with out a shadow of doubt if we can put a mini run together we can still get that 38 points all to play for and I am very very confident that Alex Neil will get it right and achieve the seasons aim of staying in the premier league

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For me survival always depended on how well Leicester, Watford, Bournemouth and Villa would do. Only one of those has consistently appeared weaker than us.

Newcastle and Sunderland have the quality of players that can pull off victories even when they aren''t playing great. It feels like we have to be firing on all cylinders to get results.

I see us ending up 19th sadly but it is still in our hands and our home games against the two above are HUGE!

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Once again Ricardo this is excellent analysis and much appreciated.

One thing is certain, it is going to be very tight. Oh for a three wins out of four run in the next half a dozen games to take some of the pressure off! Even that would need to be added too with a further 5-6 points.

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Thanks for your review Ricardo.

I was looking at the tend of points gain from games 12 to 26 by the bottom 6. We have gain the least points.

Norwich 12pts (12 games), 24pts (26 games) = gain 12 pts

Swansea 13pts (12 games), 27pts (26 games) = gain 14 pts

Nwcstle 10pts (12 games), 24pts (26 games) = gain 14 pts

Brnmth 8pts (12 games), 28pts (26 games) = gain 20 pts

Sndrlnd 6pts (12 games), 23pts (26 games) = gain 17 pts

Villa 3pts (12 games), 16pts (26 games) = gain 13 pts

Those thinking Bournemouth will still be trouble may be sadly mistaken. They have gain a whopping 20 points and if they continue the trend of points will be in mid table.

Using this methodology, it will be us, Villa and either Newcastle or Swansea. We could still get out of this, if we can gain 4 pts on Swansea, we will not only leap frog them but keep Newcastle at arms length. Offensive wise we have been doing ok. We just need to better Swansea''s results in 2 games.

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Yes,Six Pack, we have had a particularly poor middle 14 games while some of the others have slightly over performed.

I am a great believer in the idea that form is transient and over time the points totals will revert to the norm. If I am right then I expect at least 4 and probably 5 teams will score below 40 points and the cut off for the bottom 3 will be between 36 and 38 points.

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I think Sunderland will be well clear of the bottom three come May. Allardyce has a track record of success. Ultimately, Newcastle''s better quality will see them scrape home but below Sunderland. So, it''s two from Bournemouth, Swansea and us. I suspect like CC we''ll finish 19th but in deference to Lappin if there is a glimmer of hope it is that both Swansea and Bournemouth embark on an epic run of failure. One maybe, two unlikely. Might have been different with a defence in place last August.

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A really thought out and excellent piece Ricardo, thanks, I thoroughly enjoyed reading.My opinion is that it''s a toss of a coin whether we stay up or not, but being positive would suggest we only need four more wins and two draws to so stay up. Not impossible of course, but these will be high pressure games. Newcastle, West Brom, Sunderland, Watford and Swansea have got to be the ones we''re aiming for, and of course Manchester United at Carrow Road is not an obvious away win. I think we''ll do it... just.

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[quote user="Six Pack"]Thanks for your review Ricardo. I was looking at the tend of points gain from games 12 to 26 by the bottom 6. We have gain the least points. Norwich 12pts (12 games), 24pts (26 games) = gain 12 pts Swansea 13pts (12 games), 27pts (26 games) = gain 14 pts Nwcstle 10pts (12 games), 24pts (26 games) = gain 14 pts Brnmth 8pts (12 games), 28pts (26 games) = gain 20 pts Sndrlnd 6pts (12 games), 23pts (26 games) = gain 17 pts Villa 3pts (12 games), 16pts (26 games) = gain 13 pts Those thinking Bournemouth will still be trouble may be sadly mistaken. They have gain a whopping 20 points and if they continue the trend of points will be in mid table. Using this methodology, it will be us, Villa and either Newcastle or Swansea. We could still get out of this, if we can gain 4 pts on Swansea, we will not only leap frog them but keep Newcastle at arms length. Offensive wise we have been doing ok. We just need to better Swansea''s results in 2 games.[/quote]

 

Good point.  Unfortunately those last 14 games are made up of some good results by us at the start followed by 5 defeats and a draw at the end.  We could really do with a win under our belt - Saturday was the perfect opportunity and we blew it.  And now we have a trip to Leicester and then Chelsea coming up. 

 

I still have hopes we can turn it around but I''m definitely feeling negative since seeing us lost at Villa !

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Going by our rate of points across the season sense would be we''ll finish on 36 points. Which means we need to pick up a few more to get across the line safely.

The key thing at this point is we still manage our own fate, we''re in a mix where we can get out as easily as fall into trouble.

Statistically I agree, we''re 2/3 to go down at this stage we just have to make sure.

As always Ricardo a factual and interesting read, and one that fills me with hope as much as the reality that at this stage, it''s still all to play for.

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[quote user="AJ"]Going by our rate of points across the season sense would be we''ll finish on 36 points. Which means we need to pick up a few more to get across the line safely.

The key thing at this point is we still manage our own fate, we''re in a mix where we can get out as easily as fall into trouble.

Statistically I agree, we''re 2/3 to go down at this stage we just have to make sure.

As always Ricardo a factual and interesting read, and one that fills me with hope as much as the reality that at this stage, it''s still all to play for.[/quote]Yes, AJ. Everyone is still in control of their own fate with 12 games to go.The statistics can only give us averages and thus probabilities. If they could give certainties the bookies wouldn''t allow us to get any money on. In most cases teams will progress to the end of the season gaining points in line with their long term averages but it''s the ones that lie at the extremes that give hope of some change.Last year after 26 games Leicester were 20th on 18 points but finished 14th on 41 points.In 2001/02 after 26 games Ipswich were 13th on 30 points but finished 18th (relegated) on 36 points.Those are extremes but they show the possibilities.

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Thanks for the detailed and informative post ricardo.Historical form suggest a team doing a Leicester  such as last season is a rarity in the Premier, ricardo also truly  points how City, historically all the way back to 1972 / 73, fade in the latter stages of the season. Based on season performance, and current trend in the 2nd half of this season, there is nothing to indicate City will stay up, much to indicate they will drop.Start of season i went for City relegation and ending on 33 points, basing that on the new millenium  stats for City, 2 of their 3 relegations since 2000 ending on 33 points. After Citys last Premier win on January 2nd, i again said i would stick with my start of season guess, even thou City had just won 3 out of 4 games.Based on form since that time, even 33 points seems optimistic right now, but City must surely win at least a game or two before end season.

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Perspective could all change after Lecester. Win and it would be like climbing out the coffin, draw, lift the lid and have a peep ,a defeat, well just a couple of nails to go.

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Probability theories my eye! Most people who couldn''t tell a football from a rugby ball  could have come up with a list of probables that would find themselves bunched at the bottom of the Premiership table this season.
When it comes to predicting football outcomes it''s far greater fun NOT TO. That''s why we all love it and hate it based upon the motion of conflicting thoughts that rush through our brain cells faster than a Japanese bullet train.
However, ( to get into the spirit of the thing [:D] ) and, because everyone can play with statistics and offer a probability theory I''ll offer one of of my own. First, however, I should point out that my little self is tiring of the gloom and doom that preoccupies so many, so I deliberately looked for a statistic that would give us something a little more optimistic.
In the past twenty seasons of the 38 game format thirteen of those seasons have seen teams survive with greater number of goals conceded than teams that were relegated. I therefore conclude there is a 65% probability that this will be the case this season. I have also studied a great number of other statistics ( which I won''t get into now....more [:D] ) and concluded there is not a cat''s chance in hell of Villa getting off the bottom of the table. There is a similar chance that Swansea won''t concede more goals than those to be relegated, which puts them firmly in place as a relegation contender. [;)] This then leads to the probability that at least one of Sunderland, Newcastle, Norwich or Bournemouth will escape the horror of relegation having conceded more goals than at least one of the teams to be relegated. Are you with me so far? ( [:D][:D] 
Now, other than Bournemouth, Norwich is clearly in the drivers seat as the team most likely to survive. We have a  "shoot and you will score policy" that we regularly afford to the opposition. We are tied for most goals concede currently but.... we are still statistically not occupying one of the three doomed spots. We are capable on our day of playing good football and pricking the bubble of any  team that should walk all over us ( will Leicester fans go home feeling the greatest deflation since the Hindenburg? ). We are the team that most pundits find it easiest to dump upon. We are well overdue for something good and surprising to happen and Norwich still has the largest open market in the country ( I think [:D]  Now, if you continue to persist in looking at the gloomy side of things I don''t know what else I can possibly share with you. You''re doomed!      

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[quote user="YankeeCanary"]
Probability theories my eye! Most people who couldn''t tell a football from a rugby ball  could have come up with a list of probables that would find themselves bunched at the bottom of the Premiership table this season.
When it comes to predicting football outcomes it''s far greater fun NOT TO. That''s why we all love it and hate it based upon the motion of conflicting thoughts that rush through our brain cells faster than a Japanese bullet train.
However, ( to get into the spirit of the thing [:D] ) and, because everyone can play with statistics and offer a probability theory I''ll offer one of of my own. First, however, I should point out that my little self is tiring of the gloom and doom that preoccupies so many, so I deliberately looked for a statistic that would give us something a little more optimistic.
In the past twenty seasons of the 38 game format thirteen of those seasons have seen teams survive with greater number of goals conceded than teams that were relegated. I therefore conclude there is a 65% probability that this will be the case this season. I have also studied a great number of other statistics ( which I won''t get into now....more [:D] ) and concluded there is not a cat''s chance in hell of Villa getting off the bottom of the table. There is a similar chance that Swansea won''t concede more goals than those to be relegated, which puts them firmly in place as a relegation contender. [;)] This then leads to the probability that at least one of Sunderland, Newcastle, Norwich or Bournemouth will escape the horror of relegation having conceded more goals than at least one of the teams to be relegated. Are you with me so far? ( [:D][:D] 
Now, other than Bournemouth, Norwich is clearly in the drivers seat as the team most likely to survive. We have a  "shoot and you will score policy" that we regularly afford to the opposition. We are tied for most goals concede currently but.... we are still statistically not occupying one of the three doomed spots. We are capable on our day of playing good football and pricking the bubble of any  team that should walk all over us ( will Leicester fans go home feeling the greatest deflation since the Hindenburg? ). We are the team that most pundits find it easiest to dump upon. We are well overdue for something good and surprising to happen and Norwich still has the largest open market in the country ( I think [:D]  Now, if you continue to persist in looking at the gloomy side of things I don''t know what else I can possibly share with you. You''re doomed!      
[/quote]Yes, as ever there are plenty of straws to clutch at Yankee because only three of my predicted six are going to be relegated and there''s a fair chance that one of the worst three goal differences will stay up. In only half of all seasons do the worst three GD''s go down.Likewise, the present bottom three are by no means destined to end up there in May. There have only been six seasons where the bottom 3 after 26 games have all ended up being relegated, so a 70% chance that at least one will escape. There have even been three seasons where two escape but since we are not in the bottom three at the moment that is not necessarily a good omen for us.So still lots to play for but once again my 12 game theory looks like naming all three relegated clubs. However its an even numbered day today and I''m wearing my positive trousers so I have renewed confidence that it won''t be us.[:D]

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