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lowlyfendweller

Do we punch above our weight?

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After a few discussions on here during the weekend I think this issue is important. Do the club as a whole over achieve or under achieve? How often should we realistically expect strong performances against teams with better players?

Theres no way that all the aspects that contribute to over achieving can possibly be quantified. But I think we are over achieving, just barely. This is as a club as whole not the team this season. However this season we may well be underachieving, just barely.

I also recognise the need for investment, but at what cost? If it goes awry we may become chronic underachievers for a good long time. Very important window ahead as the squad could do with a bit more help in my opinion and we all know where.

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We have earned the right to be in the premier league. It is how we approach games (and January transfer window) and what ambition the board have for our club as to whether we have come along for a season up in the big league. Are we really perceived to be punching above, or are we actually here to establish ourselves amongst the big boys?

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Imo it''s all about belief and being positive - because that alone will ensure a good attitude against any team, so "punching above our weight" doesn''t really come into it.  Being brave and not being afraid/nervous/tentative about playing the top teams is how you will compete at the very highest level.   These ''big'' teams are under a lot of pressure to perform themselves and if you get among them with a strong sense of belief, you can turn  it round and make them sweat a bit, as we did against MC and Chelsea.   It''s a simple premise really - play with a single minded focus and you will compete with anybody, any time - drop your levels through being less focussed, nervous or worried and your performance will reflect that.

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Yes, I think we do.Given the limited resources we have to operate with, we do pretty well.Without checking, I should imagine there are a few Championship clubs who are better financially backed than we are.

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I Think it''s safe to say we''re somewhere between the 20th to 30th biggest club in the country (With almost nothing between clubs around that area) and in terms of spending power without the PL money, just from our board and matchday/sponsorship revenue we''re way down there, probably bottom half Championship

If you also consider how much we''ve actually spent on this group and our wage cap it''s obvious we are over achieving!

For the moment I''d say our natural level before it get''s really tough for us is top 8 Championship-ish, that could all change though after a few good years up here, stadium expansion, a trophy or a new owner

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I would say we do too. Unfortunately money talks and however hard you work and however much self belief you have then stronger squads filled with world class players will eventually come out on top. Cup matches can be an exception even short spells of matches but doing it throughout a long hard season is not possible.

Financially we would probably be top end of the Championship but obviously the big Premiership revenue increase coming after this year would give us a huge advantage over the Football League clubs step up if we can stay up. Such a crucial season

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No, we are not punching above our weight.

If anything, we are slightly underachieving, but mid-table Premier, and cup runs, should be the aim for a club like ours for the foreseeable future.

No external debt, good training ground, good manager, good stadium. It is all there.

What we lack is proper scouting, and a "club pull". We are not seen as an attractive club, and the only way of breaking that view is to get a few big earners in, to make other players notice, which again may bring in other players witg a name, etc.

A bit like Swansea have done in recent years.

But as long as we keep to a strict wage structure, we will never be able to take "the next step", as as such, have to fight relegation every year, or fight to be promoted every year.

We have no divine right to be a midtable Premier team, but we sure have the means, and should have the player material if the board really wants it. I dont think the board are ambitious enough, but I can also understand them, having saved the club from financial oblivion only recently.

It seems "prudence with ambition" is still very much the mantra.

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I don''t think its entirely down to luck though. Some won''t agree with this but the stability and long term plan put in place means that we have been able to ride the bumps, and give us our best chance of success. We have a very stable leadership at boardroom level, with a well thought out policy, that although it frustrates me at times, they stick to.

We had no right to bounce back last season, no God given right whatsoever, but we did, because they held their cool and stuck to their guns.

Now, all of a sudden our record is 4 seasons out of the last 5 in the Premiership, instead of 3 in the Premiership and 2 in the Champs.

So my answer is still yes, we do punch above our weight, but its more by design that luck.

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Agree with Morty. If we can keep the manager, and improve the squad window on window then we have a real chance of a prolonged stay in the division. Not on a Southampton level though as they have a lot of financial clout but maybe similar to the Stokes and Swanseas of the world.

The board clearly has a cautious plan of action (most probably after being burnt by the RvW debacle), that can frustrate in terms of transfers, but it''s one that''s never going to put us in any financial danger where we could go down the Portsmouth or Leeds route.

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Interesting thoughts, I apologise for the poor wording, and adled thought process in the OP. I''m glad people managed to get the gist of what I was trying to say.

Prudence with ambition does seem like the right mantra, but still part of me wants us gamble on players with exotic sounding names.

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Like most Football debate, there is no answer to your question. Truth is, we are what we are, and we do what we do.

Those that attempt answers to such questions often tend to use examples to support their already formed opinion; a form of confirmation bias. People will point to Blackburn and Bolton , Portsmouth and , potentially, Villa to confirm that undue risk is to be avoided. Because it might all go wrong.

However, point to Stoke, Southampton and Leicester and you can make a case to consider that the Opportunity is too great not to take a larger financial risk.

Of course anything to do with Football is largely about results. So what happens at the end of the season will determine what the success of Model is. If we stay up I think it will be fair to say it will be a successful season . If we go down it wont be so. And yet you can go down on goal difference such are the fine margins .

Even relegation would be received in differing ways. Some will say we have no debt so anything is fine. Others that relegation is , per se, a failure.

I suppose it depends on your outlook on life. How deep is that?

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[quote user="GPB"]Like most Football debate, there is no answer to your question. Truth is, we are what we are, and we do what we do.

Those that attempt answers to such questions often tend to use examples to support their already formed opinion; a form of confirmation bias. People will point to Blackburn and Bolton , Portsmouth and , potentially, Villa to confirm that undue risk is to be avoided. Because it might all go wrong.

However, point to Stoke, Southampton and Leicester and you can make a case to consider that the Opportunity is too great not to take a larger financial risk.

Of course anything to do with Football is largely about results. So what happens at the end of the season will determine what the success of Model is. If we stay up I think it will be fair to say it will be a successful season . If we go down it wont be so. And yet you can go down on goal difference such are the fine margins .

Even relegation would be received in differing ways. Some will say we have no debt so anything is fine. Others that relegation is , per se, a failure.

I suppose it depends on your outlook on life. How deep is that?[/quote]I don''t have time to look at Stoke or Leicester, but from what I have read Southampton haven''t taken much of a risk to get where they are. They had their immediate debts paid off by the new owner back in 2009 and since his death his daughter has paid off other external debts, wiped off £38m of internal debt by turning it into shares, and lent another £20m. Overall her contribution has been around £72m, according to The Swiss Ramble, and there is only internal debt. Hence Southampton''s financial ability to spend more than £30m on a state-of-the-art  training centre. Assuming that Liebherr, who has got progressively more involved in running the club, doesn''t up sticks and want her money back it doesn''t seem to me there has been much of a gamble for Southampton getting where they are. Whereas for us what is being talked about, spending more on transfers and - more crucially -  breaking our wages policy when we have no directors with the money to bail us out, would be a gamble.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="GPB"]Like most Football debate, there is no answer to your question. Truth is, we are what we are, and we do what we do. Those that attempt answers to such questions often tend to use examples to support their already formed opinion; a form of confirmation bias. People will point to Blackburn and Bolton , Portsmouth and , potentially, Villa to confirm that undue risk is to be avoided. Because it might all go wrong.

However, point to Stoke, Southampton and Leicester and you can make a case to consider that the Opportunity is too great not to take a larger financial risk.

Of course anything to do with Football is largely about results. So what happens at the end of the season will determine what the success of Model is. If we stay up I think it will be fair to say it will be a successful season . If we go down it wont be so. And yet you can go down on goal difference such are the fine margins . Even relegation would be received in differing ways. Some will say we have no debt so anything is fine. Others that relegation is , per se, a failure. I suppose it depends on your outlook on life. How deep is that?[/quote]

I don''t have time to look at Stoke or Leicester, but from what I have read Southampton haven''t taken much of a risk to get where they are. They had their immediate debts paid off by the new owner back in 2009 and since his death his daughter has paid off other external debts, wiped off £38m of internal debt by turning it into shares, and lent another £20m. Overall her contribution has been around £72m, according to The Swiss Ramble, and there is only internal debt. Hence Southampton''s financial ability to spend more than £30m on a state-of-the-art  training centre.

Assuming that Liebherr, who has got progressively more involved in running the club, doesn''t up sticks and want her money back it doesn''t seem to me there has been much of a gamble for Southampton getting where they are. Whereas for us what is being talked about, spending more on transfers and - more crucially -  breaking our wages policy when we have no directors with the money to bail us out, would be a gamble.

[/quote]

 

A woman willing to put £72m into a football club ?  Tell me purple, is she single ?

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A women that will put in £72 million in to a football club, and it is not considered to be any form of Risk? Fantastic.

Whether this has anything about punching above our weight is dubious, but who cares.

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Historically we''ve always been in the top 2 tiers of English football, so we are where we should be. It all depends how you want to judge the size of a club though, in terms of fan bases we have a bigger fan base than quite a few premier league clubs. In terms of finances, we should be in and around the bottom reaches of the premier league, but whilst finances help massively, they aren''t everything, of course you''d need to spend a good 500m to compete for the top 4 spots but if you look at Villa and Newcastle, they spent roughly a combined 100m this summer and are below us in the table.

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