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YankeeCanary

The Coming Season, Statistically Speaking

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I was curious as to the fate of teams that were relegated from the top level over the past twenty seasons, having conceded 70 goals or more in their relegation year. The total number of clubs with this distinction, coincidentally, was twenty, including the effort from Norwich last season.

Looking at the performance of these twenty teams during the following season in the second level only one team, Bolton in 1995-96, finished first. A mere three other teams finished in the top six. The remaining sixteen teams generally followed with mediocre seasons. Indeed, some were promptly relegated to the third level. The average position achieved for the twenty teams in the subsequent year was twelfth.

Statistically speaking, this does not bode particularly well for Norwich. Particularly when considering we had some of the defensive problems present in our prior promotion season and failed to deal with them at the higher level. Further, we currently appear to be taking some of those problems forward yet again to another season. I have seen many comments on this board to the effect that Fleming can do well back in the Championship. Really? I also see far too many posters putting exaggerated accolades besides Shackell''s name. There is much good to come from this young man, no doubt, but I suspect the reason for the excessive praise was in comparison to the deficiencies we had elsewhere. We may well yet make one or two good signings that will shore us up to the required level. However, we have not strengthened to the required level. Couple this with the fact that we continue to need better coaching and organisation, and it does not take too much imagination to realise we have our work cut out for us. With respect to the statistics, I already hear some of you saying "poppycock" in less polite language. Don''t dismiss statistics too quickly is what I say.   

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Interesting post Yankee. However, statistics are not a set-in-stone guide to what will happen. Looking at our last few games of last season, going into them, the statistics over the course of the season said we would only pick up a few points. This wasn''t the case.

I share your concerns, but feel with a few more signings, we''ll have the quality and desire to get back up. What you have to remember is that a lot of those teams who came down had the better players leave. Bar one or 2 departures possibly still to come, we still have the core of a superb Championship team.

I''m confident that we''ll be challenging from the off for an automatic promotion slot. I don''t think we''ll win the league, but i do think we''ll come second. Let''s just wait and see who Worthy brings in over the next few weeks before making snap judgements based on previous stats.

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I believe it was Churchill that said "There are lies, damn lies and statistics..."

Winston Churchill, that is, not the insurance dog...

Anyway, whilst I''m certain you''ve researched the above in immense detail, I must question whether you''ve taken into account the effects of relegation on the teams in question, ie players leaving, financial difficulties, etc? 

Norwich have suffered no such problems so far - the only players who have left, Helveg and Svensson aside, are the ones no one will really miss too much (though both my exceptions are also up for debate), we have a very good team to be going out with come August, a very good manager, and sound finances.

To suggest that City will struggle this year based on the fates of other teams from the past is, as you said we would say, poppycock.

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Over the course of the season, you''re right; our defence was abysmal. However (not including the debacle at Fulham) for the last 6 or 7 games of last season we were one of the strongest teams in the Premiership and only let in a handful of goals. Had our injury crisis been resolved a little sooner I''m pretty sure we''d now be looking at another season in the Premiership and if we can remain injury free next season, statistics will mean diddly-squat

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A complete load of ''balls'' from Yankee, and believe me, I know balls when I see it!.

Statistics can be manipulated into anything to support an arguement.

Me?, I''ll just trust in Nigel, and keep the powder dry, if it''s all the same to you YC?.

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Interesting stats YC.  However, IMO they are flawed.  We stand ourselves in much better stead than other relegated teams in the past for two reasons;

1)  We know the division

IMO too many teams and fans take the first division for granted.  We did over a decade ago.  We thought it was our "rightful place" to be in the elite and it backfired spectacularly. Many other teams have felt this too.  West Ham being a classic example.  Southampton will also show this next season.  Of that I''m sure.  We DO know the division.  We know exactly how hard it is to go away to Burnley and Crewe and battle for 90 minutes.  We won''t take the first division for granted

2)  Finances

Before the transfer bubble burst just a couple of seasons ago, relegation meant a club could be crippled.  Huge transfer fees were paid and massive wages.  Before the wage deferral scheme we now have in place, clubs got relegated with players on 25K/week or more.  The list is massive; Wimbledon, Leicester, West Ham, Leeds, Ipswich etc etc.  This has meant that these clubs have needed to sell before they can buy.  Some have never recovered.  We aren''t in this situation.  We have been sensible yet ambitious.  We haven''t had to sell our key players and highest earners.  The only players who have left have done so because we didn''t want them, or they didn''t want to play for us in the first division.  I don''t care about them.

 

Keep the faith

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Interesting thoughts guys.  The trouble with statistics, or more specifically, this kind of statistical forecasting analysis, is that it is not, as pointed out, an exact science (due to the impossibility of factoring in the “absolute” unknown).  The other aspect that is important is pointed out by Wiz, it can be easy to get statistics to show just what you want to show...but then just think how boring it would be if all statistics were based upon the same robust methodology that was beyond criticism and reproach...there would be NO stats and forecasts to argue about!!

 

They can however, and frequently do, provide a good “general” guide to how we might expect something to progress…on that basis, who is to say that YC’s projection will be that far out come the end of next season.  The things that will make a difference are those of which we know nothing of yet because they have not yet happened i.e. injuries, our players and our competitors form, potential transfers/transferees…etc etc the list goes on.

 

 

Btw EM, I think the first person to say “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” was another famous Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli, I think, back in the 1860’s (ish??)

 

Mind you, he also said “It is knowledge that influences and equalises the social condition of man; that gives to all, however different their political position, passions which are in common, and enjoyments which are universal”...so what exactly he was on I’m not sure…

 

I truly believe we will be ok this coming season, though it might be harder than some predict.

 

City will be fine.

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Yankee is right - a straight reading of those stats does look bad for us.  However like most sensational headlines that stats only provide a fraction of the understanding of what those clubs went through the following season.

Were they like leeds and forced to sell key players to keep the club afloat, were they like west hamd who had aging past it defenders and had to bringon the youth, did players leave because of a desire to stay inthe prem, were managers changed etc etc etc.

In the current situation we know that it will be tough to get promoted butit is how the aproaches the season that will matter, not the fact we conceeded so many goals last year. 

 

OTBC

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Interesting stats YC,

However I think you will find that City, unfortunately, defied statistical probability last year when as Division One Champions they were immediately relegated the following season. It had happened only once before I think.

So perhaps they will succeed in getting promoted this year and defy history in successive seasons.

By the way, glad to see you have discovered paragraphs.

 

 

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