ron obvious 1,502 Posted December 30, 2015 Thinking about it, I reckon the 3rd relegation spot is between us, Swansea, Bournemouth & Newcastle/Sunderland.I''m confident we''re better equipped all round than any of those. I feel more optimistic now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ca 1 Posted December 30, 2015 [quote user="ron obvious"]Thinking about it, I reckon the 3rd relegation spot is between us, Swansea, Bournemouth & Newcastle/Sunderland.I''m confident we''re better equipped all round than any of those. I feel more optimistic now.[/quote]Who do you have going down with Villa ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ron obvious 1,502 Posted December 30, 2015 CA, I reckon either Newcastle/Sunderland will be 2nd bottom. More a hunch than anything else - could be Bournemouth I suppose, but I think their weary perennial relegation fight will get to one of those two. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,385 Posted December 30, 2015 [quote user="grefstad"]Very good writeup from a quality poster.Agree with all of this.Swansea got 3 clean sheets in a row now, so the certainly got the ability to scrap for points.Personally I think the points needed for survival this season will be quite high, as I expect, as Ricardo, 2 teams to be cut off from the rest, and it will be a mighty scrap to avoid the last relegation spot.I fear teams can even go down on 40 points this year. A tally normally seen as safe, but in a season where surprises seem to be the norm, it could all be different from the usual this season. Hope I am wrong.[/quote]I have seen and heard this mentioned on several occasions but is there any evidence to support it? Several of the lower teams have indeed had spectacular results against some of the big boys and this should show up in the stats as a more compressed league and higher points totals for the bottom half dozen strugglers at this halfway stage of the season. I decided to look at the last 15 seasons to see if there is any evidence for this.Average cumulative points after 19 games:- bottom three bottom six 43.4 98.7This seasons cumulative points after 19 games (Sunderland 1 game to play) bottom three bottom six 37 96So absolutely nothing there to suggest that this season will need an above average final points total.There have been very few seasons when 40 points or move have been needed so I decided to look at those two seasons to see if they throw any further light on the subject. 2002/03 West Ham relegated on 42 points and 2010/11 Wolves safe on 40 points. bottom three bottom six 2002/03 48 109 2010/11 53 112So yes, there is some evidence to show that a high points total for the strugglers at the halfway stage of a season means a higher target for safety but absolutely nothing to show that this season is one of those.There is a lot of time for things to change but nothing so far to show that this season isn''t bang average and in that case there will be four or five teams with fewer than 40 points and 38 points is still very likely to be quite safe. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219 Posted December 30, 2015 Bravo Ricardo, good analysis.Existing 20 points + Jarvis + Naismith + one or two others +''renewed sense of optimism therefore needs to equal = 18 points from 19 games.Tight, but achievable. Good manager at the helm, new chairman, good time for positive playing investment and support from all.Parma Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
whoareyou? 0 Posted December 30, 2015 One thing in our favour is we have now played away games at Spurs, Chelsea, Man City, Man Ure, Liverpool and West Ham already. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Budapest Canary 152 Posted December 30, 2015 Statistics suggests that we will be fine. Last season we collected 0 points under Alex Neil before 10 January, while after that period our tally was 46 points. This season, even before 10 Jan we already have 20 points, add 46 until the end of the season and we''ll be fine with around 66 points. Simple As. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Katie Borkins 1 Posted December 30, 2015 Good work Ricardo.Sunderland have had too many get out of jail cards and this is their time, along with Villa who couldn''t beat an egg. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
grefstad 0 Posted December 30, 2015 Thanks, Ricardo, great analysis regarding the stats.Points tital is one thing, but for the bottom 6-8 teams , it is vastly important where points are won and lost. Wining against teams around you have "added value" compared to winning against a team nearer the top (or cut adrift at the bottom), due to the "double whammy" effect. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
norfolkbroadslim 223 Posted December 30, 2015 Just had a look at the half way point over the last few PL seasons and usually at least 1 team (sometimes 2) who were in the bottom 3 at the halfway point, get out of it and 1 (or 2) teams who weren''t in the bottom 3 at halfway get relegated. [:S] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
93vintage 16 Posted December 31, 2015 With things tight around 15-18th, signings could be a significant factor. At least Newcastle and Bournemouth could be expected to push the boat out somewhat in this regard.Bournemouth of course had several long term injuries to key players, plus have the monetary backing. We didn''t get a huge amount done in the last window and I think the same was true of Swansea. So there could be a lot riding on the amount/quality of business to be done. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AJ 1,218 Posted December 31, 2015 Only one team has survived with the number of points both Sunderland and Aston Villa have accumulated so far - last nights defeat to Liverpool has pretty much confirmed (pretty much, not mathematically of course) that Sunderland are heading down as well. It leaves us with a realistic 1 in 4 chance of survival. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Making Plans 936 Posted January 2, 2016 [quote user="ricardo"]I will state quite categorically here and now that there is absolutely no possibility of Everton or Southampton being drawn into a relegation scrap.[/quote]Well, if we''re in a relegation scrap then so are Southampton 13Southampton2022414Norwich20-923What''s more, our current form is good & theirs is poor - our last 8 games 14 points, Southampton last 8 games, 7 points Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
