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ricardo

Ricardo's relegation prediction update Xmas 2015

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My long held view that the league is virtually set in stone after a

dozen games appears to be holding up quite well again this season. If

you remember, I stated that any team averaging a point a game or less at

that stage would almost certainly feature in the relegation mix at the

end of the season. At the 12 game point this season the bottom of the

table looked like this.

Norwich               12 pointsChelsea                11 pointsNewcastle            10 pointsBournemouth         8 pointsSunderland             6 pointsVilla                       5 pointsHovering

very slightly above this group and with every chance of being drawn in

were WBA with 14 points and Swansea with 13 points.This is the

position now after the first half of fixtures have been completed. (19

games excluding Sunderland who have Liverpool H, yet to play))Norwich                20 pointsBournemouth       20 pointsSwansea               18 pointsNewcastle             17 pointsSunderland           12 points  * still to play 1 gameVilla                       8 pointsChelsea

20 points have escaped the bottom group on goal difference while

Swansea have swapped places with them. WBA, 3 points ahead remain 8 from

bottom. So in effect, while there has been some movement within the

group, the bottom 8 after a dozen games remain the bottom 8 at the

halfway stage and is thus in line with my prediction. Of last

seasons bottom 8 at the halfway stage, 7 were still there at the seasons

end, only Palace escaped. Leicester who were bottom with 13 points at

this stage  finished 7th from bottom largely due to a fantastic final

nine game run that saw them win 7, draw 1 and lose 1. This shows that

miracles sometimes happen but they are very much exceptions to the rule.There

is always a possibility of another team dropping down from higher up

but it would take a brave man to bet that the bottom three won''t come

from this bunch.In making a prediction at this stage and when

the points totals are so close, it is always wise to look at the goal

differences and especially at those teams that are conceding around 2

goals per game. It''s no good being able to score 2 yet concede 3, you

must be able to win games 1-0 to survive in this league. For that reason

alone I believe that both WBA and Swansea will survive. I also believe

that Chelsea have just too many good players to be anywhere near trouble

come May 2016.There are probably some deluded Villa fans who

still believe that it is possible to get out of trouble. IMO they would

need 30 points from the second half of the season. Will it happen? No,

more chance of being struck by lightening.Sunderland have clawed

their way clear of trouble with late revivals for several years now,

very much in the way that Wigan used to do a few seasons back. You can

go to the well just one too many times before the bucket comes up dry

and I think this will be Sunderland''s year.That just leaves

City, Newcastle and Bournemouth and this will be on a knife edge right

up to the final whistle so I''m going to chicken out on making that

decision at this stage.RelegatedVillaSunderland????????? (your guess is as good as mine)

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Bit of an anti climax there Ricardo, I deliberately stopped myself from looking at the bottom of the post first so as not to spoil the prediction. 😄

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[quote user="Mr Jenkins"]Bit of an anti climax there Ricardo, I deliberately stopped myself from looking at the bottom of the post first so as not to spoil the prediction. 😄[/quote]SorryYou could look at it in a positive light by concluding that we have a 66% chance of not being that 3rd team.[:D]

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Been looking forward to your insight Ricardo, and once again I agree with you on the most part - however, I do not think Swansea should consider themselves safe. They and West Brom can both be hauled back into troubled water yet. Swansea have look very poor up to the sacking of Monk and unless money is spent in January I think they''ll be part of our group too.

I agree that Villa are down - I think our game on Monday was massive for them and sadly the loss means they simply do not stand a chance of getting enough points to survive now. As for Sunderland, it''s hard to see them turn things around much either so I''d also conclude they will most likely be relegated.

Leaving that one fearful spot to be one of us, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Swansea. I agree that Chelsea will not be relegated and I suspect West Brom will pick up some form too. So that leaves us with a 1 in 4 chance of being relegated.

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Well I''m hopeful that Villa take points off Sunderland, Swansea and Newcastle in the second half. We need some clear blue water

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[quote user="AJ"]Been looking forward to your insight Ricardo, and once again I agree with you on the most part - however, I do not think Swansea should consider themselves safe. They and West Brom can both be hauled back into troubled water yet. Swansea have look very poor up to the sacking of Monk and unless money is spent in January I think they''ll be part of our group too.

I agree that Villa are down - I think our game on Monday was massive for them and sadly the loss means they simply do not stand a chance of getting enough points to survive now. As for Sunderland, it''s hard to see them turn things around much either so I''d also conclude they will most likely be relegated.

Leaving that one fearful spot to be one of us, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Swansea. I agree that Chelsea will not be relegated and I suspect West Brom will pick up some form too. So that leaves us with a 1 in 4 chance of being relegated.[/quote]Yes, it''s just an opinion and by no means impossible that Swansea could go down. However, I feel that they have a better defence than the rest of the strugglers and that might just be the difference.

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[quote user="sonyc"]We need some clear blue water[/quote]It would be nice but I''m not expecting it.

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Newcastle look shorn of team spirit and don''t have the will to spend the money to strengthen the side.  I think they''ll drop in 18th place.  We''ll be 2 or 3 points better off.

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[quote user="Bor"]Newcastle look shorn of team spirit and don''t have the will to spend the money to strengthen the side.  I think they''ll drop in 18th place.  We''ll be 2 or 3 points better off.
[/quote]They are a team in decline and only picked up 4 points in their last 11 games last season so hopefully they could be the one that goes. I was going to name them but didn''t want to tempt fate.[:D]

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I agree with a lot of what you say I don''t agree that goals conceded are more of a factor than goal difference. Whilst both WBA and Swansea have conceded relatively few (24 each) they have also scored relatively few (18 & 16) compared to other relegation contenders. Their respective goal differences are only 4 & 2 better than ours.Whilst I also agree with what you say about Chelsea the new manager has not exactly set the World on fire. Of course they do have plenty of money and are an attractive Club to sign for so the January window will be important for them and they are likely to make a couple of big signings.In addition to WBA & Swansea being in the mix, I wouldn''t rule out Southampton or Everton from being caught up in things as both are having trouble winning games at the moment.If you look at current form we are 11th based on the last 6 matches and 15th based on the last 10 matches so our results are improving.Overall I think our 2nd half fixtures are marginally more favourable than the 1st half fixtures and I think we''ll accumulate more than 20 points from the remaining 19 games.I think Villa are gone & if Sunderland lose their game in hand they''ll really struggle to escape as they''ll have 7 points to gain on Swansea and 8 on those teams currently on 20 points.As I posted in another thread I beleive that we will survive and for me it''s Villa, Sunderland plus one from Bournemouth/Newcastle/Swansea for the drop. 

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[quote user="Making Plans"]I agree with a lot of what you say I don''t agree that goals conceded are more of a factor than goal difference. Whilst both WBA and Swansea have conceded relatively few (24 each) they have also scored relatively few (18 & 16) compared to other relegation contenders. Their respective goal differences are only 4 & 2 better than ours.Whilst I also agree with what you say about Chelsea the new manager has not exactly set the World on fire. Of course they do have plenty of money and are an attractive Club to sign for so the January window will be important for them and they are likely to make a couple of big signings.In addition to WBA & Swansea being in the mix, I wouldn''t rule out Southampton or Everton from being caught up in things as both are having trouble winning games at the moment.If you look at current form we are 11th based on the last 6 matches and 15th based on the last 10 matches so our results are improving.Overall I think our 2nd half fixtures are marginally more favourable than the 1st half fixtures and I think we''ll accumulate more than 20 points from the remaining 19 games.I think Villa are gone & if Sunderland lose their game in hand they''ll really struggle to escape as they''ll have 7 points to gain on Swansea and 8 on those teams currently on 20 points.As I posted in another thread I beleive that we will survive and for me it''s Villa, Sunderland plus one from Bournemouth/Newcastle/Swansea for the drop.  [/quote]
Good Lord! Has he even unpacked his luggage yet?

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[quote user="YankeeCanary"]Good Lord! Has he even unpacked his luggage yet?[/quote]2 games & 2 draws including at home to Watford and away at a completely out of form Man U. And only an average of 1 goal per game.Bags unpacked or not I suspect he would have been expecting better.

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My less than scientific approach is we have 20 points at th half way stage we will get 40 based on this and job is a good in

Teams can tinker with their squads etc and a fair few down the bottom have changed manger so the dye is cast

Think we will be fine as I think 38 will be what is needed to stay up

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[quote user="Making Plans"]I agree with a lot of what you say I don''t agree that goals conceded are more of a factor than goal difference. Whilst both WBA and Swansea have conceded relatively few (24 each) they have also scored relatively few (18 & 16) compared to other relegation contenders. Their respective goal differences are only 4 & 2 better than ours.Whilst I also agree with what you say about Chelsea the new manager has not exactly set the World on fire. Of course they do have plenty of money and are an attractive Club to sign for so the January window will be important for them and they are likely to make a couple of big signings.In addition to WBA & Swansea being in the mix, I wouldn''t rule out Southampton or Everton from being caught up in things as both are having trouble winning games at the moment.If you look at current form we are 11th based on the last 6 matches and 15th based on the last 10 matches so our results are improving.Overall I think our 2nd half fixtures are marginally more favourable than the 1st half fixtures and I think we''ll accumulate more than 20 points from the remaining 19 games.I think Villa are gone & if Sunderland lose their game in hand they''ll really struggle to escape as they''ll have 7 points to gain on Swansea and 8 on those teams currently on 20 points.As I posted in another thread I beleive that we will survive and for me it''s Villa, Sunderland plus one from Bournemouth/Newcastle/Swansea for the drop.  [/quote]I would take issue with several of those points.While goal difference is the ultimate arbiter and in most seasons it is the worst three that go down it is quite noticeable from the stats that being a low scorer is not necessarily terminal if you have a stronger defence. Stoke and WBA have often been low scorers in recent years but are often able to take 3 points from 1-0 wins. Conceding an average of 2 goals per game invariably kills you.Our current form of 11th is irrelevant, there are always ups and downs and no season runs smoothly. Things revert to the mean and looking at small sections of results is often meaningless. We were 15th after 12 matches and we are still 15th.I will state quite categorically here and now that there is absolutely no possibility of Everton or Southampton being drawn into a relegation scrap.The only way that our second half fixtures are likely to prove marginally more favourable is because we have 10 home games left and only 9 away.

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All comes down to the January window. Strengthen in key places and we''ll survive relatively comfortably in 14th-15th place. Fail to strengthen and that 3rd team could well be us.

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[quote user="Canary Wundaboy"]All comes down to the January window. Strengthen in key places and we''ll survive relatively comfortably in 14th-15th place. Fail to strengthen and that 3rd team could well be us.[/quote]Its not just about us though. I still think that Sunderland and Newcastle potentially have the quality to get out of this.And probably the money to strengthen too.

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Newcastle have a semi decent squad. They just need to keep McClaren for our sake. Big Sam has the know how to keep the Mackems up. Luckily for us their squad isn''t brilliant but we have to hope they have a poor January window.

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Two years ago, with us under Hughton in the second year, I wrote something about how we needed to convert more of out draws into wins, especially at home, or it might just send us down.

The only response I got was some abuse from City 1st, but ultimately it was probably true.

This season felt the same early on - probably should have got a point against Palace and three against Stoke and West ham, but now it does feel different and we are pinching points - home against Arsenal and Everton, and winning important games such as yesterday.

I feel we will survive, but more stress lies ahead first.

What we need to remember is that we are where we are with a squad not created by our current manager, which suggests to me that AN is a manager we should try and keep for next season, whichever division we are in.

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I agree largely with what Ricardo has said.

In terms of strengthening in January, it is always about what other teams do as well.

Villa would need 10 wins from 19 to stay up. That is above a 50% win ratio, considering that sort of form is what would normally see you higher up in terms of the table come the end of the season I just don''t see it.

Big Sam has a reputation but how many teams has he taken over of half-way through a season and in their predicament? They are also only four points better off than villa so you would have to say that they are going to need 9 wins from their remaining 20 games. And if we go on the sage advice of Ricardo they have also conceded the most amount of goals in the Premier League with 37.

As if that alone is not enough of a task for Sam, they have only scored 19 goals. Whilst that''s not the lowest it''s also not particularly great. It means they have to be tighter at the back and yet score more goals.

I think if we can put a further three points between us and Sunderland over the next couple of fixtures, they are also another team that is incredibly unlikely to overhaul us. As Ricardo says, although you can never truly write anyone off, I think they are gone too.

The last spot is just too close to call. And that is one fear in the league this year, in that bar a couple of teams, no one is really playing all that consistently.

As if to highlight that, Man Utd in 6th have 30 points having scored the same number of goals as us but having conceded just 16. Swansea in 17th have 19 points. 11 points between those two places, for me, just goes to show that a little run of form this season could pay dividends for any team that finds it.

And this is the only place where I will disagree with Ricardo. Southampton and Everton are not safe from the relegation fight yet. Although it may only be that last spot that threatens them, it would only take a victory from one of the four teams below those two on 20-23 points that could drag them back in.

Southampton especially, who seem to be really struggling for form and only a point better off than WBA too, sit a mere 7 points off 18th. Everton are 9 points and I would say they have a far stronger squad and of recent weeks have been unlucky not to get more points/wins. Not many teams ever can expect to score 3 and still lose.

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One of Purple''s favourite tomes "The Numbers Game" provides significant and clearly corroborated statistics that demonstrate that goals not conceded are more valuable to a side than goals scored in football''s top tier, the ratio shows about a 25% uplift benefit.

This entirely reinforces what Ricardo suggests about teams with superior defences being more likely to survive.

Parma

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Yes, neatly summed up by the authors as "0 > 1"!
I''ll offer another EPL rule of thumb here: keep your GD below -12 and you will almost certainly survive. Has anyone done the stats on that?

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[quote user="Parma Hams gone mouldy"]One of Purple''s favourite tomes "The Numbers Game" provides significant and clearly corroborated statistics that demonstrate that goals not conceded are more valuable to a side than goals scored in football''s top tier, the ratio shows about a 25% uplift benefit.

This entirely reinforces what Ricardo suggests about teams with superior defences being more likely to survive.

Parma[/quote]Parma, don''t get me started on The Numbers Game. It is a mixture of the sensible and the very stupid! But in this case I think its research is valuable. That said, while I agree with ricardo that a Pulis-managed WBA should certainly stay up, I wonder about Swansea. The Guardian recently suggested there was a dressing-room split bektween the old-stager loyalists on £Xm a week and the flash newcomers on £Xm x2 a week. And they still have a get in a new manager, as the transfer window looms. Even if they make the right choice, that must be hampering their plans.

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Very good writeup from a quality poster.

Agree with all of this.

Swansea got 3 clean sheets in a row now, so the certainly got the ability to scrap for points.

Personally I think the points needed for survival this season will be quite high, as I expect, as Ricardo, 2 teams to be cut off from the rest, and it will be a mighty scrap to avoid the last relegation spot.

I fear teams can even go down on 40 points this year. A tally normally seen as safe, but in a season where surprises seem to be the norm, it could all be different from the usual this season. Hope I am wrong.

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As a wise owl business partner once told me "....Parma, you never make the FD the MD...."

The maths does indeed tell you 95% of what you need*, though the 5% that''s missing will break you.

As Ricardo will know it is the interpretation of stats, the methodology behind their production and the way the camera lens chooses to point that makes them valuable or otherwise.

Football with its imponderables, what we might call the ''Grant Holt effect''...:(or perhaps the Gary O''Neil effect?)...has x-factor frequencies that touch team-mates, management and stands and that do not always appear on spreadsheets. It is the correlation between the seen and the unseen -particularly in a game as fluid and dynamic as football - that means stats cannot and will not tell the whole story of player value, tactical values or overall technical worth (vid The Numbers Game).

Bournemouth are the team to overhaul on our way to 17th.

Parma

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[quote user="Herman "]Newcastle have a semi decent squad. They just need to keep McClaren for our sake. Big Sam has the know how to keep the Mackems up. Luckily for us their squad isn''t brilliant but we have to hope they have a poor January window.[/quote]Surely you mean get rid of McClaren? Newcastle is a poisoned chalice given the way it''s run by its owner so I wouldn''t judge any manager on half a season with them, especially one who has a more than decent prior record.On a previous thread several weeks ago I said that the current bottom three were as good as any to go down, based on the fact that their football had become stale over a number of previous seasons. All three have had good managers, but despite this are struggling to turn things around in the time available.

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Another quality post from Ricardo, the only thing I would disagree with IMHO is that Southampton have no chance of being relegated. Yes, great win against Arsenal, but on the whole are slowly nearing the relegation zone and I feel if we beat them on Saturday (which I expect us to do) then things could get very interesting indeed. I think Villa, Newcastle, and Sunderland will be making Championship appearances next season.

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[quote user="grefstad"]Very good writeup from a quality poster.

Agree with all of this.

Swansea got 3 clean sheets in a row now, so the certainly got the ability to scrap for points.

Personally I think the points needed for survival this season will be quite high, as I expect, as Ricardo, 2 teams to be cut off from the rest, and it will be a mighty scrap to avoid the last relegation spot.

I fear teams can even go down on 40 points this year. A tally normally seen as safe, but in a season where surprises seem to be the norm, it could all be different from the usual this season. Hope I am wrong.[/quote]While the season has been unusual, if you take the current (i.e. exactly halfway through the season) points as the average, double them, then currently 35 points would be enough see you safe.While I know that''s not an exact science, I don''t see anyone needing 40 points to be safe.

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