Transfer window Janauary 2016

[Van wink 2,994]

As I made clear earlier, reported figures.

[Ray 111]

93vintage wrote;

"You''re not comparing like with like if you''re comparing percentages of two different numbers, at least in this particular context. I think you''re after something like a geometric mean as a ''half way'' point, which is the square root of the product of 2 and 15 ~ £5.5m."

Happy to agree 93vintage, especailly as it reinforces my point, perhaps not quite as forcibly, but to return to %''s, and using your geometric mean to calculate the ''deal'' point, Hull managed to negotiate so well they got us to pay 27.27% more. Makes "tinpot" Hull the winners in my eyes, bottom line is we may, or we may not, have a reputation within the game that doesn''t help our cause.

[Buh 0]

It''s ALWAYS the same people to panic first when it comes to January

If I was doing a psychology degree,''I would write my thesis on this board in January

I find it fascinating!

[norfolkngood 1,086]

SWANSEA AGREE TO SELL SHELVEY

Sky sources understand Swansea have agreed to sell Jonjo Shelvey to Newcastle for a fee in the region of £12m.

Sources indicate Shelvey is expected in Newcastle for a medical today.

Newcastle are doing some nice business saivet yesterday also

[ZLF 274]

newcastle already had a decent squad of players, their prime issue is the inability for their manager to get them to perform like a team rather than a squad of good individuals.

[blahblahblah 2]

I''d like to think that we were a little bit of tinpot, and a little bit hardball. Hard-pot if you will. Or Tin-ball. Take your pick.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Here''s a left field suggestion... How about we go in for Adebayor, he is seemingly linked with every premiership club from Watford to Chelsea but if he fancied a different pl challenge, we could offer him a short deal with big bonus and an extra year if we stay up?

I know it''s not our usual style but it seems there is silly money going about for some very mediocre strikers and everyone is aware of what adebayor can do when motivated.

We have a strong African contingent to help him settle. For me, I''m undecided as there''s obvious pros and cons but perhaps he''d be a better buy than spunking £10m on the likes of Gayle? Perhaps we''re not quite that desperate to risk rocking the applecart that much but he could be a cracking signing.

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="Tetteys Jig"]Here''s a left field suggestion... How about we go in for Adebayor, he is seemingly linked with every premiership club from Watford to Chelsea but if he fancied a different pl challenge, we could offer him a short deal with big bonus and an extra year if we stay up?

I know it''s not our usual style but it seems there is silly money going about for some very mediocre strikers and everyone is aware of what adebayor can do when motivated.

We have a strong African contingent to help him settle. For me, I''m undecided as there''s obvious pros and cons but perhaps he''d be a better buy than spunking £10m on the likes of Gayle? Perhaps we''re not quite that desperate to risk rocking the applecart that much but he could be a cracking signing.[/quote]Is this another funny joke?

[Buh 0]

Adebayor!!

CLUELESS!

[TCCANARY 263]

[quote] user="Tettey''s Jig"]Here''s a left field suggestion... How about we go in for Adebayor, he is seemingly linked with every premiership club from Watford to Chelsea but if he fancied a different pl challenge, we could offer him a short deal with big bonus and an extra year if we stay up? I know it''s not our usual style but it seems there is silly money going about for some very mediocre strikers and everyone is aware of what adebayor can do when motivated. We have a strong African contingent to help him settle. For me, I''m undecided as there''s obvious pros and cons but perhaps he''d be a better buy than spunking £10m on the likes of Gayle? Perhaps we''re not quite that desperate to risk rocking the applecart that much but he could be a cracking signing.[/quote]

 

It''s a terrible suggestion, nearly as bad as your understanding of the diversity of nations in the continent of Africa.

 

 

[Mr Apples 1,318]

Tetty''s Jig, have you ever considered a career at the United Nations or Foreign Office with those international diplomacy skills? And it''s a no on Adebayor too.

 

Apples

 

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

The African contingent we have are all from french speaking nations not far from each other, perhaps I should have made that more clear. Yes I''m sure he is capable of blending in with everyone, I''m not daft but it clearly helps some to have colleagues who speak the same native language.

I expected the reaction tbh, he is a volatile character. like I said, its left field, but he turned around Tottenham''s season not long ago. Are we forever going to be scared of players with a big reputation? You have seen how well AN has managed to turn Bassong round, it was integral to our promotion. Perhaps he can work his magic again?

There''s clearly a reason why half the premiership seem to be linked with him, he''s a very good player.

[lharman7 39]

Adebayor would have to ''contact his spirit guide'' before signing for any football club!

[TCCANARY 263]

The reason he''s linked with half of the premiership is probably that his agent knows he''s got a tough job getting him a club.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

[quote user="lharman7"]Adebayor would have to ''contact his spirit guide'' before signing for any football club![/quote]

Tbf, thats probably the most sensible reply I''ve had but I get it, ask a stupid question... Some people seem scared to discuss any left field suggestions.

You can''t argue with his goalscoring record though, consistently 1 in 3 at the very highest level and still only 31. Watford boss has been very open about his interest but admitted he has his pick of several premiership sides.

Like I say. I am unsure he''s worth the risk but I can imagine him going to a rival like Newcastle or Sunderland and transforming their season. At least he has talent to go with his ego unlike Bendtner who Newcastle are supposedly close to signing!

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="Tetteys Jig"]Yes I''m sure he is capable of blending in with everyone.[/quote]You sure? Previous feedback has been that he divides dressing rooms. Regardless of language or ethnicity.[quote user="Tetteys Jig"]Are we forever going to be scared of players with a big reputation?[/quote]No. But we sure should be staying away from players with a reputation of only trying when they need a new contract, being lazy, and just being a d!ck.

[Guest]

Adebayor is reportedly still being paid £100k per week by Spurs.  Not exactly in our price bracket - but certainly an imaginative suggestion!

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Capable*

*he has been fine in the past at places and not so good at other places. This is why I mentioned having a few french speaking players may help him fit in.

As for the next bit, he admits himself he is a complete mercenary. Sometimes that''s what you need short term though. I''m unsure as to whether we fit that bracket now we have a few more points on the board. If we did get him for a short term deal, We can worry about next season''s premiership squad when we clinch our place in next season''s premiership. Until then, I wouldn''t even be thinking too much about it.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

[quote user="Pyro Pete"]Adebayor is reportedly still being paid £100k per week by Spurs.  Not exactly in our price bracket - but certainly an imaginative suggestion![/quote]

Doubt Wed have to pay all that. Spurs would mutually agree something or a compromise I would think.

[PurpleCanary 5,556]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

The current Norwich City squad is as follows:Ruddy, Rudd, Kean.Pinto, Bassong, Bennett R, Martin, Olsson, Wisdom, Whittaker, Klose.Howson, Brady, Jarvis, Dorrans, Mulumbu, Hoolahan, O''Neil, Odjidja-Ofoe, Tettey.Hooper, Lafferty, Mbokani, Jerome.

[/quote]Grabban''s departure takes the number down to 23. If the recall of Andreu from loan means he is earmarked for us for the second half of the season he would make a 24th. But as things stand I am only including those who were in the summer squad, and any winter arrivals.[/quote]Klose''s arrival brings the number back to 24, which is what it was at the start of the winter window. That raises two points in assessing how this window (with no fewer than 14 days left as of tomorrow) has been going. Firstly, the number of deals finalised. We have offloaded two players (Elliott Bennett and Grabban) deemed surplus to requirement, and brought in three (Klose, Pinto and the very young Godrey) plus making Jarvis''s move permanent. The aim of doing at least some of our key deals early has been achieved.Secondly as to net spending, since the relevance of this has been raised. There are reasons why it matters. Firstly, it is an admittedly imperfect guide to the quality of players coming and going. Secondly, a frequent complaint against the owners is that they lack ambition and won''t spend money. Transfer spending serves as an indication of whether that is true.You would need to be a director to know precisely what fees we pay and receive (particularly with the prevalence of add-ons complicating the picture), but it is possible to come up with reasonable guesstimates, bearing in mind that if the transfer fees we are paying are exaggerated then probably also are those we receive. The inaccuracies will cancel themselves out. On that basis:In the summer we sold Johnson for £6m and bought Brady for £7m and Dorrans for £3.5m. We also - I assume - paid a loan fee for Mbokani. Since St-Etienne supposedly shelled out £1.25m for a season of van Wolfswinkel I would put our Mbokani fee at £1.5m. So a net spend of £6m.*The figures for this winter are in a state of flux, but the likelihood is that we shall again see a net spend - and one measured in several millions of pounds.---*I know, the accounts put it at £3m. There is an explanation for this disparity but - trust me - life is too short.

[PurpleCanary 5,556]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

The current Norwich City squad is as follows:Ruddy, Rudd, Kean.Pinto, Bassong, Bennett R, Martin, Olsson, Wisdom, Whittaker, Klose.Howson, Brady, Jarvis, Dorrans, Mulumbu, Hoolahan, O''Neil, Odjidja-Ofoe, Tettey.Hooper, Lafferty, Mbokani, Jerome.

[/quote]Grabban''s departure takes the number down to 23. If the recall of Andreu from loan means he is earmarked for us for the second half of the season he would make a 24th. But as things stand I am only including those who were in the summer squad, and any winter arrivals.[/quote]Klose''s arrival brings the number back to 24, which is what it was at the start of the winter window. That raises two points in assessing how this window (with no fewer than 14 days left as of tomorrow) has been going. Firstly, the number of deals finalised. We have offloaded two players (Elliott Bennett and Grabban) deemed surplus to requirement, and brought in three (Klose, Pinto and the very young Godrey) plus making Jarvis''s move permanent. The aim of doing at least some of our key deals early has been achieved.Secondly as to net spending, since the relevance of this has been raised. There are reasons why it matters. Firstly, it is an admittedly imperfect guide to the quality of players coming and going. Secondly, a frequent complaint against the owners is that they lack ambition and won''t spend money. Transfer spending serves as an indication of whether that is true.You would need to be a director to know precisely what fees we pay and receive (particularly with the prevalence of add-ons complicating the picture), but it is possible to come up with reasonable guesstimates, bearing in mind that if the transfer fees we are paying are exaggerated then probably also are those we receive. The inaccuracies will cancel themselves out. On that basis:In the summer we sold Johnson for £6m and bought Brady for £7m and Dorrans for £3.5m. We also - I assume - paid a loan fee for Mbokani. Since St-Etienne supposedly shelled out £1.25m for a season of van Wolfswinkel I would put our Mbokani fee at £1.5m. So a net spend of £6m.*The figures for this winter are in a state of flux, but the likelihood is that we shall again see a net spend - and one measured in several millions of pounds.---*I know, the accounts put it at £3m. There is an explanation for this disparity but - trust me - life is too short.[/quote]With four players in we are equal top with Liverpool in the acquisitions table. Six Premier League clubs have yet to sign anyone.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

In terms of his ambitious the board are, whether windows are a success or not, or where the finances go, it is a good idea for fans to think in terms of the entire package instead of the headline fee.

Thus as an example from this window we might have:

Out: Bennett (cost £3m amortised over 4 years, wages £20k@£0.5m pa = annual cost to club c£1.25m pa

In: Naismith (cost £8m amortised over 4 years, wages £50k@£2.5m pa = annual cost to club £4.5m

Where''s all the money gorn Neil?

Parma

[93vintage 16]

We might be paying a lot in fees and wages this window, but that doesn''t necessarily represent good business when you take into account some of the ''hidden'' costs of buying older players. This window we''re needing to spend big on Klose, but it''s arguably more a measure of failure than a sign of success.An ageing Turner will most likely leave for nothing, while one or both of Martin and Bassong probably won''t be here in two years time and leave for hardly anything. Klose, who''ll be 28 in May, could be viewed as an essential buy due to there being nobody else in reserve.As with any asset purchase, there''s resale value and duration of ''usefulness'' to consider and account for. Duration of usefulness obviously correlates with how frequently you need to replace the asset.In general, the more older players bought, the bigger the future liability. You''ll pay more, get less back and they''ll be ''useful'' for less time than a younger counterpart.There are several older members of the squad in a similar position to Turner who will need replacing in the near future. Not counting loans like Mbokani or goalkeepers (ie Ruddy), there will be 18 players aged 28 or over in our squad come the end of the season, and 9 of these were bought post-Hughton (knock 1 off those two numbers if the Naismith deal collapses).By contrast young player purchases only number a handful, certainly nowhere near sufficient to cover the number of older players who''ll leave in the near future. The other side of the spectrum would be where we''re buying a lot more younger players, getting more coming back and making a profit more often when we sell them, and potentially getting a longer playing time out of them.It might be that we don''t always see much of a decrease in how often we replace a younger purchase, but that should be balanced by a higher chance of receiving income/profit on their sale. Over time this ought to lead to us having more to spend on transfers and wages.We might have made a reasonable profit here and there on certain players in the last couple of years, but my general impression is that this would be negated by players leaving for little or nothing, plus the more obvious mistakes (ironically the biggest was on a young player). But the future liabilities created from accumulating a glut of older players is more of a concern.The bottom line is that we need to invest in more younger players to shift the age balance down and possibly sell some of the older ones while they''re still worth anything. A smaller PL team like us needs to do this to be able to compete with richer clubs. At the moment we''re in a vicious circle of always having to pay more for experience because we haven''t bought anyone younger who''s capable of stepping up.Obviously there''s a benefit to buying experience, but there''s also an opportunity cost that is seldom recognised or accounted for. As such, paying a lot for experienced players shouldn''t always be viewed as a success. We''ll probably always need to buy experience, but it''s a question of where the right balance is. At the moment it''s too ''top heavy''.This season and last, we ought to have had an eye on the future and been buying younger players. Instead we''ve tried to buy our way out of trouble and potentially stored up more problems further down the line.

[PurpleCanary 5,556]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

The current Norwich City squad is as follows:Ruddy, Rudd, Kean.Pinto, Bassong, Bennett R, Martin, Olsson, Wisdom, Whittaker, Klose.Howson, Brady, Jarvis, Dorrans, Mulumbu, Hoolahan, O''Neil, Odjidja-Ofoe, Tettey.Hooper, Lafferty, Mbokani, Jerome, Naismith.

[/quote]Grabban''s departure takes the number down to 23. If the recall of Andreu from loan means he is earmarked for us for the second half of the season he would make a 24th. But as things stand I am only including those who were in the summer squad, and any winter arrivals.[/quote]Klose''s arrival brings the number back to 24, which is what it was at the start of the winter window. That raises two points in assessing how this window (with no fewer than 14 days left as of tomorrow) has been going. Firstly, the number of deals finalised. We have offloaded two players (Elliott Bennett and Grabban) deemed surplus to requirement, and brought in three (Klose, Pinto and the very young Godrey) plus making Jarvis''s move permanent. The aim of doing at least some of our key deals early has been achieved.Secondly as to net spending, since the relevance of this has been raised. There are reasons why it matters. Firstly, it is an admittedly imperfect guide to the quality of players coming and going. Secondly, a frequent complaint against the owners is that they lack ambition and won''t spend money. Transfer spending serves as an indication of whether that is true.You would need to be a director to know precisely what fees we pay and receive (particularly with the prevalence of add-ons complicating the picture), but it is possible to come up with reasonable guesstimates, bearing in mind that if the transfer fees we are paying are exaggerated then probably also are those we receive. The inaccuracies will cancel themselves out. On that basis:In the summer we sold Johnson for £6m and bought Brady for £7m and Dorrans for £3.5m. We also - I assume - paid a loan fee for Mbokani. Since St-Etienne supposedly shelled out £1.25m for a season of van Wolfswinkel I would put our Mbokani fee at £1.5m. So a net spend of £6m.*The figures for this winter are in a state of flux, but the likelihood is that we shall again see a net spend - and one measured in several millions of pounds.---*I know, the accounts put it at £3m. There is an explanation for this disparity but - trust me - life is too short.[/quote]With four players in we are equal top with Liverpool in the acquisitions table. Six Premier League clubs have yet to sign anyone.[/quote]The arrival of Naismith takes us to the magic number of 25 players. As to our winter transfer spending, with the caveats from above (and acknowledging the wisdom of Parma''s point) so far we have sold Grabban and Elliott Bennett. I haven''t seen a fee mentioned for the latter, but assume it would certainly be no more than £1m, and quite possibly more like £0.5m. As for Grabban, Sky (who I think tend not to under-estmate) said £7m and others £8m. Split the difference at £7.5m and be generous and assume we got £1m for Bennett, so £8.5m.Incoming, we have Pinto at £2m, Jarvis at £2.5m, Naismith at £8m, plus a few hundred thousand for Godfrey. As for Klose, the amount seems to depend on whether we paid €10m, which would work out at a bit under £8m, or €12m, which comes to just over £9m. As with Grabban, splitting the difference, at £8.5m, looks sensible.With a generous few hundred thousand for Godfrey that takes us to or close to a spend of £21.5m, and a net spend of £13m, and a net spend for summer and winter of around £19m.

[Grant Holts Moustache 105]

Thanks for the figures Purple. What do you think is now left in the pot for another player or two? I''m sure we have increased the wage bill with the current ins and outs so may be a bit short on that side of things. I would assume maybe another 5/6m plus what ever we can bring in from selling other players for wages and additional money towards fees based on our spend the last time in the premier.

[canary_1902 0]

One or two more signings according to SAN on SSN just now [H]

[PurpleCanary 5,556]

[quote user="Dead Canary"]Thanks for the figures Purple. What do you think is now left in the pot for another player or two? I''m sure we have increased the wage bill with the current ins and outs so may be a bit short on that side of things. I would assume maybe another 5/6m plus what ever we can bring in from selling other players for wages and additional money towards fees based on our spend the last time in the premier.[/quote]I must stress again these are headline figures, but if they are inaccurate then the inaccuracies on both sides of the balance sheet probably roughly even out. What I am reasonably confident about is that the repeated claim made here that the board had decided we could only spend this winter what we received this winter will be proved to be false, and that the three counter-predictions I made before the window opened will be validated:1) We will spend a record amount for a winter window [the previous record probably being the £5m-£6m we spent on Howson and Ryan Bennett in January 2012].2) There may well be players sold but only to part-finance transfers in, and those departing will be players who (and there are some obvious candidates) Neil has decided are not wanted on voyage. Apart from anything, some squad members will almost certainly have to be culled (sold or loaned out) to make room for the incomers.3) We will spend more than we get back in transfer fees. We will certainly not balance the books either in terms of our winter spending or our overall summer and winter spending.As to what money we have left, if anything, I have no idea, although it would surprise me if we made another big-money purchase. It may be any transfers now are either partly or entirely funded by, say, the sale of a surplus striker. And/or that we are thinking about a late loan deal. But since we have now 25 players in the squad we have to get rid of (or simply omit) as many as we get in.

[ZLF 274]

Better quality players than we already had signed early in the window, and finally strengthened the defence. The hint that we may yet get another one or possibly two.

Just about the perfect transfer window whatever happens from here.

Bring on the last 16 games of the season.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

You included Jake Kean in that squad though didn''t you?

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

Point b)

Out: Grabban (cost £3m amortised over 4 years, wages £20k@£0.5m= annual cost to club c£1.25m

In: Klose (cost £8m amortised over 4 years, wages £50k@£2.5m pa = annual cost to club £4.5m

Add to original point a)

Out: Bennett (cost £3m amortised over 4 years, wages £20k@£0.5m pa = annual cost to club c£1.25m pa

In: Naismith (cost £8m amortised over 4 years, wages £50k@£2.5m pa = annual cost to club £4.5m

Total club spend:

a) Bennett plus Grabban = £2.5m pa, total club outlay to be budgeted for: £10m

b) Naismith plus Klose = £9m pa, total club outlay to be budgeted for: £36m

Improve squad from bottom, replace with players at the top = additional £26m for 2 players

Parma