Back by popular request - the 2015-16 RELEGATION MINI LEAGUE

[Katie Borkins 1]

Back by popular demand*...... The 2015-16 RELEGATION MINI-LEAGUE
"We said this at the start. Realistically there are going to be six teams that fight it out and it’s almost can you win that mini-league, because if you do then you’ll be alright.  I’d take this position we are in now come the end of the season.” Russell Martin (some poetic licence taken)
“We certainly won’t lose sight of what the realities are.  We are still in a group of teams where it is still all about staying in this division."Chris Hughton endorses the value of the mini-league, December 2013.

[img]http://s27.postimg.org/48hu4ub83/rml.jpg[/img]

[Katie Borkins 1]

At this stage, the key point of interest is that Bournemouth have had four cracks at home games and only taken 4 points - if they can''t beat the other Relegation Mini-League™ teams then they have Buckley''s of beating the bigger boys. I THEREFORE DECLARE THAT BOURNEMOUTH ARE DOWN.

[nutty nigel 7,902]

Strange we haven''t played more considering our ''easy start'' to the season.

[Mr Angry 2,014]

Good work Bor.

Yes Nutty, my thoughts too, and also interesting to see that Villa, who a lot of people already think are down, have only played twice against their relegation rivals.

[Mr Angry 2,014]

And have got 4 of their 5 points in the 2 games!

[lake district canary 4,823]

This really gets my goat.  Why are not Swansea included in this scenario?   If it comes to that, if Stoke or West Brom go on a bad run, they ought to be included.   Chelsea may be punching below their weight, but they are right deep in the poo at the moment too and not a forgone conclusion to rise that much higher, either.  So selecting just six clubs as a mini-league is just too limiting.  If past seasons are anything to go by, the bottom ten or even eleven clubs have all been in danger of being sucked down to the bottom of the table,  so why limit it to six?  Why not ten?  Or heaven preserve us, why not twenty?  Leicester will fall from their precipice sooner or later..............

[Mr Angry 2,014]

Do you have access to Excel spreadsheets LDC?

[lake district canary 4,823]

Yes, thanks.

[Katie Borkins 1]

[quote user="lake district canary"]This really gets my goat.[/quote]

An unintended bonus.

[quote user="lake district canary"]Why are not Swansea included in this scenario?   If it comes to that, if Stoke or West Brom go on a bad run, they ought to be included.   Chelsea may be punching below their weight, but they are right deep in the poo at the moment too and not a forgone conclusion to rise that much higher, either.  So selecting just six clubs as a mini-league is just too limiting.  If past seasons are anything to go by, the bottom ten or even eleven clubs have all been in danger of being sucked down to the bottom of the table,  so why limit it to six?  Why not ten?  Or heaven preserve us, why not twenty?  Leicester will fall from their precipice sooner or later.............. [/quote]

This might stick in your throat a bit, but you have to trust my judgement on the six teams selected.

(And if I chose twenty teams then it wouldn''t be a mini-league; it would be a league.  We already have one of those.  It''s called the Premier League.)

The value of the mini league cannot be denied as a predictor of the teams who will be relegated.  If you want to trawl back through the forum, you will find that as early as February, it has been unerringly correct:

2011-12 Mini league predicted: Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves

2012-13 Mini league predicted: QPR, Wigan, Reading

2013-14 Mini league predicted: Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff

[ca 1]

Good work Mr Chops lol

I also think that Swansea will be bottom 6 very soon, their next 3 games are Liverpool and Man City away and then Leic at home, maybe 1 point from that lot at the most??

[BroadstairsR 2,273]

Nothing to be gained by being in denial, but yes Swansea should be included.

Not one other team though, IMO. It''s not just the current points tally that excludes the likes of WBA and Stoke but more the quality they consistently show and the fact that they are capable of picking up three points regualrly and against any team.

The acquisition of Ron Vlaar will be worth a few points in this company, whatever the cost.

Now that''s a positive thought.

[Van wink 2,994]

Chopsy''s mini league returns, City first will now surely reveal his latest identity.

[nutty nigel 7,902]

In my usual style of finding positives I think it''s also worth pointing out that 2 of our 3 games have been away from home.

[lake district canary 4,823]

[quote user="Bor"]

The value of the mini league cannot be denied as a predictor of the teams who will be relegated.  If you want to trawl back through the forum, you will find that as early as February, it has been unerringly correct:

2011-12 Mini league predicted: Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves

2012-13 Mini league predicted: QPR, Wigan, Reading

2013-14 Mini league predicted: Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff

[/quote]

Funny, as I remember it, the mini-league in past seasons had to keep changing to cope with teams coming into it and going out of it, so therefore it isn''t a league at all, just a collection of teams who hppen to be nearer the bottom  at any one time.  Surprise, surprise it predicted the bottom three teams as the season wore on - it was because they were at the bottom!!!!

 

[BroadstairsR 2,273]

Don''t get your nappies in a twist LDC. Of course it''s not final and it''s certainly not doom-mongering or self-prophesising.

More a realistic appraisal of our Club''s chances for the remainder of the season, as not being the wealthiest and new again to the league that''s our lot at the moment.

Are you telling us that you don''t view the results of the aforementioned teams with special interest nowadays? Are you telling us you won''t be particularly rooting for a Sunderland defeat on Monday night?

[Katie Borkins 1]

I don''t recall changing any teams from the previous mini-leagues, but if you would like to find the threads and show me, I will gladly apologise.

[lake district canary 4,823]

[quote user="Bor"]I don''t recall changing any teams from the previous mini-leagues, but if you would like to find the threads and show me, I will gladly apologise.

[/quote]

Maybe you didn''t actually change them, but there were certainly teams that crept into the scenario - but if you didn''t include them, doesn''t it show that the situation is more fluid than having a rigid six team league.  And what about Swansea?  I''ll not reply on this thread any more, I''ll leave you to it, but suffice to say, I will look forward to getting the points off Arsenal, as much, if not more, than getting points off Villa, because if we beat Arsenal, it proves we can beat any team and get way up the table before any mini-league comes into effect.  I''m looking for the season to grow into an improving one and for me, all the mini-league does is  perpetuate a mentality of  "down among the also rans".   Enjoy your grovelling around at the bottom of the table........in the mean time, I''ll be looking for three points against each of Arsenal, Everton, Man Utd and Tottenham, as well as Villa and Watford. We might not get them, but if we were to win four out of those six games, 12 points, I think that it wouldn''t matter a jot against which team they were against, in the scheme of things. It would put us on 24 points in the new year - and it wouldn''t matter what Villa and Watford do then. All we need is  good run of results against whoever is put in front of us. I accept the logic of a relegation mini-league, but I don''t accept the mentality behind it, because fortunately, football is not logical and no amount of mental gymnastics trying to make it so, can change that. Imo.  

[BroadstairsR 2,273]

"I think therefore I am."

The power of thought is indeed great, but can any degree our positivity amongst us produce a three pointer?

[lowlyfendweller 0]

I like the mini league, and find it a useful indicator of how other clubs in the fight to stay up are doing. If was uber positive and not at all concerned with negativity, I wouldn''t even comment on it, I would just be living my positive life and not criticising others for taking an interest. Also I imagine it wouldn''t be difficult for a team to join or leave the mini league, it would just require a re type!!

[Katie Borkins 1]

I love the relegation mini league and in many ways it is the only league that matters, which makes me more important than the FA and certainly more prescient than Paul Merson.

[lowlyfendweller 0]

Haha , Perhaps give you the Merson bit

[Katie Borkins 1]

"I''ll be looking for three points against each of Arsenal, Everton, Man Utd and Tottenham, as well as Villa and Watford. We might not get them, but if we were to win four out of those six games, 12 points, I think that it wouldn''t matter a jot against which team they were against"

Not quite true.

Beating Villa and Watford, and losing to Arsenal and Man Utd, is better for us than beating Arsenal and Man Utd but losing to Villa and Watford.

I would love us to win all those games but I have never visited Cloud Cuckooland, much less lived there. I hear it is nice this time of year.

[ricardo 8,033]

Goals differences tell you all you need to know.The three droppers are already in the bottom five.

[Hairy Canary 753]

I like these mini-league stats too. They tell us quite a lot about the relative merits of the teams involved. Much like comparing goal difference. Both happen to show us as just slightly the right side of the line which is always a good thing to see!

Also it''s just a bit of fun LDC. You should try it sometime. Go on, you know you want to...

[AJ 1,358]

Anyone averaging less than a point per game no matter who they''ve played against is in big trouble and sadly that includes us.

As the table stands at the moment; Swansea and Watford are in trouble too having recorded just above 1 point per game. I''m going to disregard Chelsea as let''s face it they are having an epic blip but a blip is all it will ever be.

Watford 13 -2 16

Swansea 13 -4 14

Norwich 13 -8 12

Newcastle 13 -12 10

Bournemouth 13 -13 9

Sunderland 12 -13 6

Aston Villa 13 -14 5

As Ricardo has plainly pointed out, points matter yes but goal difference is a huge and telling factor a third into the season.

Villa look like the ones in the biggest trouble, with Sunderland and B''mouth not far behind. If you can''t stop teams scoring and can''t score yourself you are in a big, big trouble.

We, however, are Okay, but must continue to dig in. We don''t concede a lot of goals but at the same time we haven''t scored a huge amount. Newcastle away aside we have been fairly solid. We have shown enough to suggest we will stay up as things stand but don''t get me wrong, it''s a still a long ol'' season from here.

[CANARYKING 707]

Rumour mill has Monk getting the boot, not sure if that''s good or bad ?

[Fuzzar 1,855]

It''s definitely not very good for him.

[smooth 114]

It is those results against our rivals that are vital.

I agree that any game we can get three points and we start on 1 point at 0-0. But they key games against our rivals is key. The relegation league is key, it is right to look at the fortunes of other clubs, injuries at Bournemouth, new managers not turning clubs round etc.

We have to pick up a few more points and when we get our games against those around us picki up 3 is critical, when we have a larger gap on them a draw is fine.

Roll on Sunday but I will add roll n these critical games too.

[sonyc 6,144]

I''ve been quiet on this forum for a long while ( well these last 2 to 3 weeks) .....maybe. Even over 11 years given my post count. But the mini relegation league when we are in the premier is what it''s all about. Thank you Bor.

[Katie Borkins 1]

[quote user="sonyc"]I''ve been quiet on this forum for a long while ( well these last 2 to 3 weeks) .....maybe. Even over 11 years given my post count. But the mini relegation league when we are in the premier is what it''s all about. Thank you Bor.[/quote]

You are more than welcome, and I look forward to leading us all into the light.