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ricardo

Ricardo's early relegation predictions 2015/16

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Here we go again, most will be familiar by now that my proposition is that the league is virtually set in stone after a dozen games. Those teams with a point per game or less after twelve games are almost invariably the relegation contenders at the end of the season.

This is what my research tells me:-

In 23 seasons of the Premier League 70 teams have been relegated (4 in 94/95 due to reduction in number of

clubs). Of those 70 subsequently relegated clubs 59, ( 84%) had averaged

a point a game or less after 12 matches played.In 12 of those

23 seasons all 3 subsequently relegated clubs had averaged a

point a game or less after 12 matches and in the other 11 seasons, 2 out of 3

were relegatedAll three of last seasons relegated clubs fell within this category and after 12 games were 17th, 19th, 20th..Hull        11 pointsBurnley  10 pointsQPR        8 points.The teams a point a game or less this season are:-Norwich               12 pointsChelsea                11 pointsNewcastle            10 pointsBournemouth         8 pointsSunderland             6 pointsVilla                       5 pointsSo

unless this season differs from every other Premiership season there is

a 100% chance of 2 of these 5 being relegated and a better than 50%

chance that all 3 will come from this group.

The only teams with more than a point a game average after 12 games but were subsequently relegated were:-92/93  Middsboro  16 points94/95  Norwich      19 points96/97  Middsboro  13 points97/98  Palace         15 points98/99  Charlton      15 points00/01  Man City     14 points07/08  Reading       13 points08/09  Middsboro  17 points09/10  Hull City      16 points10/11  Blackpool    14 points13/14  Cardiff         13 pointsTeams can escape after a bad start and as there are usually about 5 or 6 teams in this position after a dozen games it is quite obvious that 2 or 3 always do. However the 23 year history of the Premier League gives us a good pointer as to who will be in trouble. In our relegation year 13/14 Palace and Sunderland both escaped although both had only 7 points and were joint bottom at the 12 game stage.Make of it what you will, once again we are in the mix but we knew it wasn''t going to be easy. Still two thirds of the season left and all to play for.[:D][Y]

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Ricardo, I also seem to recall some of your previous predictions mentioning the effect of goal difference.  Also and more specifically the relation between goal difference and chances of relegation?

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[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]Ricardo, I also seem to recall some of your previous predictions mentioning the effect of goal difference.  Also and more specifically the relation between goal difference and chances of relegation?[/quote]Indeedscoring 1 for every 2 you concede gets you relegated. The current bottom three are already in this position.Conceding 2 per game usually puts you in trouble, regardless of how many you score.By Xmas time it is nearly always possible to pick the relegated teams by looking at the three worst goal differences.

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[quote user="morty"]So Ricky, we staying up or not?[;)][/quote]maybe.............maybe not[;)]On present trends you''d have to say Villa are certainties. No team has ever stayed up with only 5 points after 12 games.Chelsea, despite their bad run look to have too much so that leaves two from four, barring of course someone like Stoke, Swansea or WBA falling into the reckoning. That seems fairly unlikely.Bournemouth''s luck seems to have deserted them so I make them second favourites, so that leaves one from three.We just have to beat Sunderland and Newcastle when they come to CR and all will be well.[Y]

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="morty"]So Ricky, we staying up or not?[;)][/quote]maybe.............maybe not[;)]On present trends you''d have to say Villa are certainties. No team has ever stayed up with only 5 points after 12 games.Chelsea, despite their bad run look to have too much so that leaves two from four, barring of course someone like Stoke, Swansea or WBA falling into the reckoning. That seems fairly unlikely.Bournemouth''s luck seems to have deserted them so I make them second favourites, so that leaves one from three.We just have to beat Sunderland and Newcastle when they come to CR and all will be well.[Y]

[/quote]Yeah, completely agree with Villa and Bournemouth. Even the pundits can see Bournemouth coming, as they have stopped licking round Eddie Howe.Slightly worrying for me is that both Newcastle and Sunderland have the quality to turn it around.

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Interesting post and stats Ricardo, don''t see Chelsea going down so your history is proved right we have 5/1 shot of staying up.

Do you know what the points total is that we need to aim for to stay up, is it 40 ish?

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[quote user="cityangel"]Interesting post and stats Ricardo, don''t see Chelsea going down so your history is proved right we have 5/1 shot of staying up.

Do you know what the points total is that we need to aim for to stay up, is it 40 ish?[/quote]40 points is often given as the target total but you rarely need that many to be sure of staying up. 34 points has been enough on a few occasions but I would say you would be fairly unlucky to go down on 37/38 points. A point a game average is what we need to aim for.Once you start looking at a point and a half per game to get to 38points  you can forget it.

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[quote user="Bor"]That current bottom 3 are looking good to go the distance. I still think 15th for us.[/quote]

I very much hope so.[Y]AN showed that he is capable of adjusting his tactics, yesterdays win wasn''t pretty but but at the end of the season there are no points on offer for style.

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I think the last point you made is really key. I was slightly worried that having not spent a great deal in the summer AN would stubbornly stick to the 4-1-4-1 formation which he always used at Hamilton and would stick with Russell Martin in the middle for the season. I''m not trying to make this a debate of who should or shouldn''t be in the team, but it is good that AN is willing to change things if they aren''t going right instead of just doing the same thing unlike a hell of a lot of managers in this league.

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Cannot see that either Villa or Newcastle going to be in the bottom 3 come end of season, form seems to have gone out of the window this season with so called top 6 to 8 being beaten by lower teams. Carrow Road needs to become a fortress again as I cannot see us picking up much away from home.

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Thank you for the nail biting stats! I''m also grateful that AN is willing to mix it up tactically. It really will keep other managers guessing. We''re potent enough to spring a few surprises in the next few games if an opposing manager is caught unprepared for our tactics on the day. Refreshing stuff!!

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As normal I''m pretty sure it will all be down to the last two games of the season........pretty much agree with points to be safe this season being lower than the 40 target.

It''s going to be a tough couple months now, anything more than 5 points from the next 7 games would be a welcome bonus.

I love the stats but no one has yet really picked the three go down!

Bournemouth, Villa and unfortunately us, as I think others have the budget to get out of trouble, but it''ll be tight all the way?

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[quote user="daly"]Carrow Road needs to become a fortress again as I cannot see us picking up much away from home.[/quote]Lol! You obviously haven''t seen Alex Neil''s record since he''s been here..........

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Thanks for this Ricardo.

What do you think about Watford? I still think that they could go on a bad run and get sucked back into the relegation mix.

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[Lappintop

Surely it was obvious even to you that I was talking about THIS SEASON which was the topic being discussed

7 points at home from 18

3 losses against teams we were expected to beat and 1 draw plus 2 home wins against 2 poor sides

Try not to always put others down you will find life a lot easier and more rewarding

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Ps thanks for the predictions Ricardo. Will be interesting to see how it pans out. What''s different now is that Villa or Sunderland for example can be expected to change their manager again if still in the drop zone so their is a greater risk of big turnarounds by bottom teams

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Aston Villa look gone, unless they manage something incredible as do Sunderland.

I''d like to think Swansea West Brom and Watford could all be clawed back in as well though.

As for us, how vital is that 3 points on Saturday looking now?! Still a long way to go but we''re above at least 3 other teams and that''s what matters

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[quote user="Mutley"]Thanks for this Ricardo.

What do you think about Watford? I still think that they could go on a bad run and get sucked back into the relegation mix.[/quote]Its possible, but indications so far are that they have a mean defence. Scored 11 conceded 12 after a dozen games isn''t the goal average of a team that is likely to be bottom three.

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[quote user="daly"][Lappintop

Surely it was obvious even to you that I was talking about THIS SEASON which was the topic being discussed

7 points at home from 18

3 losses against teams we were expected to beat and 1 draw plus 2 home wins against 2 poor sides

Try not to always put others down you will find life a lot easier and more rewarding[/quote]I was not putting you down Daly, I was simply replying to your comment when you said "I cannot see us picking up much away from home". I disagreed because Neil''s record away from home since he''s been here has been exceptional, and THIS SEASON in the Prem we have scored more goals away from home than any other team outside the top six.I clearly have more faith in our manager than you appear to have.

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I''d be interested also in whether of the 11 of the 70 who stayed up, how many of them changed their manager and whether there is any correlation. I feel more worried about S''land with Big Sam in charge than had they stuck with Advocaat. With Newcastle I would be very happy for McLaren to stay as I think what happened with Derby imploding last year and them still being unconvincing will work in our favour. B''mouth and Swansea very likely to be competing with us- all have younger managers who will find the going tough and there will not be much between us.

But I agree with those who do fear the clubs with money- spending big in January could make all the difference (as hopefully it will with us!)

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[quote user="Tumbleweed"]I''d be interested also in whether of the 11 of the 70 who stayed up, how many of them changed their manager and whether there is any correlation. I feel more worried about S''land with Big Sam in charge than had they stuck with Advocaat. With Newcastle I would be very happy for McLaren to stay as I think what happened with Derby imploding last year and them still being unconvincing will work in our favour. B''mouth and Swansea very likely to be competing with us- all have younger managers who will find the going tough and there will not be much between us.

But I agree with those who do fear the clubs with money- spending big in January could make all the difference (as hopefully it will with us!)[/quote]You only have to look at our relegation year when the bottom six after 12 games was, Cardiff, Norwich, West Ham, Fulham, Palace and Sunderland.All of them changed their manager except West Ham (who stayed up). Cardiff and Fulham changed more than once if I recall correctly but were both relegated. Those that changed and stayed up probably think it made the difference, those that still went down, probably not so much.All that can be said about changing a manager is that sometimes it gives a temporary boost but history shows that is by no means a panacea.

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Lapps

Appreciate your comments and I do have faith in AN but just feel too many points dropped at home

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Ricardo

Ever thought of going on Mastermind with NCFC your specialist subject

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I think it will be this with quite a high tally needed for 17th, probably 39 or 40 points with how open the league is this year

15.Newcastle

16.Norwich

17.Swansea

18.Villa

19.Sunderland

20.Bournemouth

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Your talents have become legendary Ricardo so much so that i think you should copyright this thread so that it is only used on here under your name.

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[quote user="TIL 1010"]Your talents have become legendary Ricardo so much so that i think you should copyright this thread so that it is only used on here under your name.[/quote][:D]

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