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ricardo

Rickys Further Relegation Research

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Whilst going through the stats to produce my 12 game relegation review I was struck by the number of teams in recent years that have failed to reach the much quoted 40 point mark. I think in the early years of the Premier League the 40 point mark became a truism because in most years only three teams or fewer achieved this total. Last season six teams failed to reach 40 points and the season before that there were seven teams in this predicament. This suggested to me that there was some kind of polarisation taking place if this trend was more than a mere co-incidence.In the last 10 seasons, that''s 2005/06 to 2014/15, a total of 53 teams failed to reach the 40 point mark, an average of 5.3 per seasonIn the previous 10 seasons 1995/96 to 2004/05, a total of 35 teams failed to reach the 40 point mark, an average of 3.5 per season.It looks like more teams are in the relegation mix, so where are all those lost points going and why????????I decided therefore to have a look at the other end of the table to see if the top teams were getting more points and sure enough there does seem to be a trend of the bigger boys getting a larger share of the spoils. In the early years of the Premier League it was normal for only 2 or 3 teams to garner 70 points or more. This seems to have markedly changed. Here are the figures:-In the first 10 seasons of the Premier League,  (1995/96-2004/05) a total of 25 teams got 70 points or more, an average of 2.5 per season.In the last 10 seasons of the Premier League,  (2005/06-2014/15) a

total of 37 teams got 70 points or more, an average of 3.7 per season.The trend if indeed it is a trend seems to be accelerating as in two of the last three seasons, five teams have accumulated 70 points or more  while at the opposite end it''s six or seven struggling to get beyond 39 points.While this is probably good news for us in that there are more teams in the expected relegation mix it also seems to show that the league is slowly fragmenting into two if not three separate strata''s. The top half dozen or so are winning more points and gradually moving further away from the bottom half dozen or so while the middle bunch are treading water.I think anecdotally it''s something we all realised was going on but these figures seem to give it a factual base. What do you think?

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[quote user="ricardo"]While this is probably good news for us in that there are more teams in the expected relegation mix it also seems to show that the league is slowly fragmenting into two if not three separate strata''s. >[/quote]

Will this revive the talk of a European Super League?

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Great analysis.

It looks linked to the attraction of champions league places rewards. As the rewards have grown so have the investments aimed at reaching them, driving a greater division between the haves and have nots

There are three clear levels, little changes in the top 6, with more break in drop outs between bands 2 and 3.

Staying up for 4 seasons and making that transition is battle, maintaining it another war altogether.

It doesn''t change much at the bottom, other than 40 pts will be mid table, 38 usually safe and more teams in the mix meaning survival hope until the last games

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Dedicated work Ricardo! As you say, it does seem to back up what gut instinct tells us. However, i have a funny feeling it may not remain the status quo for very long (I certainly hope so, anyway).

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[quote user="ron obvious"]Dedicated work Ricardo! As you say, it does seem to back up what gut instinct tells us. However, i have a funny feeling it may not remain the status quo for very long (I certainly hope so, anyway).[/quote]I think Zipper has got it right. The major movements are between bands 2 and 3 with ourselves as a 3 with aspirations of being a 2. I think the top band is largely set in stone at the moment. The 2 Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool. Everton and Southampton just below trying to break in. Looking at the finishing positions over the last half dozen seasons, the top seven can probably name themselves.Leicester, Palace and West Ham and possibly WBA and Stoke seem to be in the solid middle band at the moment but the rest of the league is quite fluid.

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