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Ray

What the hell do stats tell you?

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Taking a look at the first 7 league games of the season (9 points at an average of 1.29, a season total of 49) and comparing these performances with our last 3 games (still 9 points at an average of 0.9, a season total of 34), the stats are very thought provoking if looking at possession %, shots and shots on target.

First 7 Games

NCFC (Ave. Per Game)

Possession = 49.57%

Shots = 13.7

On Target = 4.71

On Target % = 34.38%

Oppo (Ave. Per Game)

Possession = 50.43%

Shots = 13.57

On Target = 4.86

On Target % = 35.81%

So from this we can summarise by saying; “Not much to chose between them.”

Last 3 Games

NCFC (Ave. Per Game)

Possession = 61.0%

Shots = 17

On Target = 3.67

On Target % = 21.59%

Oppo (Ave. Per Game)

Possession = 39.0%

Shots = 11.33

On Target = 5

On Target % = 44.13%

To summarise (and without showing all the mathematical workings here), a massive increase in our possession, a corresponding increase in our shots taken and a ‘catastrophic’ drop in our shots on target. As far as the oppo is concerned, obviously a massive drop in possession, a corresponding drop in shots taken but an appreciable increase in shots on target.

So, what can we take from all the above? In terms of possession we have made a giant leap forward, in terms of shots per minute of possession, we have improved slightly and in terms of our shots on target %, we have dropped off the cliff.

In the first 7 games of the season we were converting 22.49% of shots on target to goals, In the last 3 games the figure is, 27.27%, so this has improved, thus highlighting the fact that our shots on target % is the culprit. Had we continued with our shots on target % from the first 7 games in the last 3 games, we would have probably scored another 1.8 goals in those 3 games. These goals could all have been against Newcastle, so nothing changes bar goal difference, but the point is;

We are retaining more possession and doing less with it, so may be we should look at our creativity and ability to at least work their keeper.

Yes, we can look at the defence and our defensive displays, but no matter how well they play, if we suddenly appear unable to get a shot on target, then we could keep a clean sheet every week and we’d still go down.

In the last 3 games the oppositions shots on target % of shots taken, is over double ours, no surprise we’ve picked up zero points then!

All the above proves s*d all of course, but………….

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"All the above proves s*d all of course, but………….

"That''s stats for you.  The simple stats are that the opposition score more goals than us..........and all that means is that the team as a whole needs to do better.

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Four points...

1 the sample size is way too small to make a comparison...

2 you haven''t taken into account opposition quality and style of play and formation...

3 you haven''t taken into account home vs away form...

4. the location of the possession is also relevent...

One thing that seems to have changed this season (across the league) is that striking "on the break" (especially away from home) is particularly effective.

So it could be that recently we have possession - ending up attempting to "force the play" and end up with attempts off target.. Whereas in earlier games we conceded some middle third possession and hit on the break.

Unfortunately football is far too random and with such small sample sizes - we''re stuck with qualitative rather than truly quantitative analysis.. i.e. its a funny old game

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IWOKH,

Yep, I agree with all you have said, just thought it was an interesting stat but the fact remains our on target % has dropped and the oppo''s has risen, to twice ours and we lost all three games.

As we both agree, this proves nothing, but yesterday we had a few chances in the first 20 mins, when we were dominating the game, and had we had our shooting boots on and at least got our shots on target, we may well have taken the lead, different game then and potentially 3 points instead of none.

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One undeniable stat yesterday was how truly awful Russell Martin was he barely completed a pass all day. Got caught out of position regularly never one a second ball.

If he stays in the team any longer then Neil had lost the plot

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Completed 3 out 4 passes, the lowest in the back 4 admittedly, but over the season 4 out of 5, plus made a total of 4 interceptions and tackles, whereas the other 3 in the back four made 6 (average of 2 each) between them and perhaps what is more notable is that our midfield five made a total of only 5 tackles and interceptions between them (average of 1 each). He also made more passes than any other NCFC player.

Made 9 crosses less than Brady (2 - 11) but had a 50% success rate to Brady''s 0%.

As many shots as the rest of the back four put together and as many key passes as the rest of the back four put together.

So, "barely completed a pass" is somewhat of an exageration and whilst I agree not the best game I''ve seen him play, still did as much, if not more than the other defenders.

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