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Jim Smith

Too much focus on new strikers and not enough on centre backs

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I obviously hope we are after both before the window shuts but all i keep hearing about is how we are linked with strikers or hope to get another striker in.

The fact is that we play with one striker most of the time. Grabban is too wasteful for this level but Jerome is probably good enough to lead the line and Grabban and Hooper are ok as back up. Yes maybe one more would be nice but it does not appear to me to be our most pressing issue which is a decent central defender. Why, therefore, do we not appear to be linked with or is there no mention at all of new defenders? I really hope this is due to us pursuing something under the radar rather than Neil having decided that he thinks our current defence is good enough. Saturday was a perfect example of what we all know our defence is like, looked decent for the most part but still gives the opposition 3 or 4 chances every game through sloppiness.

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I can''t remember any reference made by anyone at the club at any time this summer regarding signing a new first-choice CB. AN will have learned something from Saturday, but I don''t think for a moment that it will be that there is pressing need for a CB. It will be about the importance of getting the balance right in midfield and of getting Olsson and Mulumbu back as soon as possible.

However, those of you who think a new first-choice CB is the absolute priority can take heart. I am usually wrong so keep the faith!

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Too much focus from who? The media? This messageboard?The only reason the focus is on strikers is because that''s where the media talk has been. What the club is focusing on is a whole other matter.The only thing we know is what AN tells us - which is not much other than that they''re trying to bring ''a few in''. The only time specifics on players/positions has been discussed is when AN has been asked direct questions - again fueled by media talk.I''d be very surprised if we don''t bring in at least one another defender by the time the window closes.

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I think we have, potentially, a very good CB already at the club in the form of R Bennett. Hopefully he might get a chance to prove himself soon.

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Can''t say I can recall Alex Neil talking about bringing in a new CB, only a striker? - it''s only really on here that there''s been talk of a new defender? That''s not to say he''s not after one though.

Whatever happens, either striker or CB, I don''t think it''ll happen till we can ship a couple out - I really think that''s what it hinges on before we can do anymore incoming business.

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If we''re not a serious threat up front our defence will get hammered no matter who we play at CB, that''s why the primary focus has got to be there, without an outlet we will descend into the mindset we had under Hughton. i.e. everythings ok until we go behind.

We would need a seriously good CB to come in to make a radical difference, and even if that were to happen and were played alongside Bassong, then Bassong is due several lapses in concentration throughout a season, if not per game - so, it''s a given that we need goals and we need to accept that the way we play (i.e. fullbacks pushing on equals more risk of being caught short out wide) the opposition is always going to get chances.

As has been posted on here already, i also have hopes for Ryan Bennett to come good.

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]More spot on analysis from Jim.[/quote]

I think you mean you agree with him Highland. But is Jim"s analysis really "spot on"? I know people don''t like stats, but a even just a quick look at the record regarding our goals for and against in our three recent seasons in the EPL suggests AN is absolutely right to prioritise a striker.

GF= goals for; GA= goals against, CS=clean sheets, FTS= failed to score, FP= final position

2011-12: GF 52, GA 66, CS 8%, FTS 23%, FP=12th

2012-13: GF 41, GA 58, CS 26%, FTS 34%, FP=11th

2013-14: GF 28, GA 62, CS 32%, FTS 45%, FP=18th

In terms of GA the three seasons were very similar, but as our CS total improved our FTS total soared and GF almost halved. Doesn''t that just confirm what we all really know perfectly well -- that the main reason we were relegated was failure to score enough goals?

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When focusing on getting a striker It''s not JUST about our failure to score that we''ll be addressing, it''s all about keeping the opponent busy across the park and not allowing them to over-rule us in defence.

Take a boxing analogy, if you can walk through your opponent''s punches you''re going to be able to unload/attack much easier and creatively. In football having that true attacking threat is the equivalent to having a sharp jab that gives your opponent more to think about.

A new CB just gives us a stronger guard, it doesn''t have the same overall improvement a quality forward would bring.

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Jim great post

The problem is, as the end of the window draws closer, prices go up and it is very doubtful we will be prepared to spend high to bring in the quality we need - but lets see

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Let me try again. Look at GD in those three Lambert/Hughton seasons. Despite GA staying reasonably constant (the increase in 2013-14 resulted from one or two real hammerings, offsetting the genuine improvement in CS), our GD deteriorated from -14 to -17 to -24. That deterioration mirrors the GF totals which slid from 52 to 41 to 28.

Stats show that you will generally survive in the EPL if your GD is no worse than -12. If people feel that our current strike-force and midfield are good enough to score a minimum of 40 goals this season, the conclusion should be that we are basically fine as we are. If people think we will struggle to score that many, then we need a goal scorer. There is no pressing need to commit a large sum of money to strengthen our defence.

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