Parma's Tactics Masterclass 8

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

Breaking with tradition let''s have a look at the denouement of Alex Neil''s Transfer Window and try to analyse what our objectives, obstacles and transfer tactics might be.

The Grabban situation has presented some obstacles, but also some opportunities.

Grabban is far more sinning than sinned against, but let us look at a bit of summer history and context from his perspective. Grabban was widely used by Neil in the Championship, he might even have considered himself the favourite striker until Rotherham. His lack of discipline at a crucial juncture, both in the eyes of teammates and management, was forgiven but not forgotten.

Nevertheless from his perspective the open search for new firepower, and the elevation of Jerome to teacher''s pet, left him staring down the barrel of third choice at Norwich, in a system with one space. He was understandably not thrilled at this possibility and the club perhaps showed their cards on this too early. Telling the fans what they want to hear is one thing, but players do read newspapers and social media (actually plenty, much like the rest of us), and agents - if not players themselves - understand the subtext and the consequences for their clients.

Fomenting perceived slights may indeed encourage moves, which may indeed generate handsome fees for agents, though note most do what is in the best interests of their clients, which is ultimately their meal ticket. The player may feel the slight before the agent foments it...

That Bournemouth want Grabban may well have positive transfer consequences for Norwich. Our "druthers" may not have been possible this summer - tidily moving on high earning, unsuitable* players such as RvW, signing a successful striker who can play within the defined system, moving on players with skills but whom are tactically unsuited such as Hooper, retaining Grabban as a theirs choice option.

Some parameters now exist whether we like them or not. Lafferty is not in huge demand and will not recuperate any sizeable fee, RvW''s wages are too high for any club that might theoretically pay a fee for him, Hooper may not be happy or may not stay fit and effective playing an occasional cameo, Jerome may get injured.

Grabban''s actions may yet nudge our tactical approach.

Give that we are openly in the market for a striker, the transfer fee and wages of that striker were calculated without the sale of Grabban. The sums involved will take account of RvW and Lafferty not making our short term financial fortunes. Hooper may have been loaned out and wages saved, though no major fee was expected save for a possible amortised cost as a makeweight in a transaction.

This means that say £6m for Grabban @ £25k p/w = £4m over a (nominal) 4 year contract = £10m of positive contribution back into the pot.

Now let us posit that we have a few genuine striker targets. we planned for these without the departure of Grabban tactically and financially. His unexpected sale may well enable us and inspire us drive fragile deals across the line, that we might otherwise have been unable or unwilling to complete.

Grabban is a good player, suited to the system we play. He is however entirely unproven at the top level. Pressure typically reveals character and technical flaws in footballers. Under scrutiny you are as good as you are at your worst. If you are German, you train and drill and focus and repeat to raise your lowest level. R you are English you tend to put on show what you can do, whilst camouflaging your weaknesses. This comes back to haunt you at the highest level.

It would be highly unfair to judge Grabban on one Premiership game or incident, but every coach will have noticed him go for the Palace chance with the wrong foot. It was a simple chance that should have been scored, but worse than that his technique was flawed. It is not the missing, it is how you miss. In the context of the game it also really mattered.

Bournemouth are not getting the player that will keep the up. They are getting far better cover than they have. Grab an will fit well there and they want him. I doubt anybody else would pay that kind of money.

Managers also like "set pieces" from which to establish their modus operandi, their code for players, their managerial self-image. Occasions to establish authority and control, to reinforce existing key messages, should not be missed.

Let us add a caveat here however. Grabban will be let go because he is dispensable and he was right about becoming third choice. Not because disciplinary ideals have become overriding drivers in football. Basso the www brought back into the fold because he was a better defender than others and Alex Neil knew his odds of success were improved by having him in the side.

The tactics of transfers are all pragmatic.

Parma

[Katie Borkins 1]

Everything here makes sense and is logically stated (barring the typos, I guess you are on your phone) and I agree Grabban will not be here after 1st September.

I''m interested in why you asterisked this bit

high earning, unsuitable* players such as RvW

I presume you were going to say RvW doesn''t suit the club but this doesn''t make him a bad player per se, and I would agree with that.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Very well written, it''s been clear that while wanted, he is our most saleable non-vital player so faced with the conundrum of not being able to move RvW and Hooper on, moving Grabban on isn''t a bad shout.

I am surprised we haven''t accepted the £5.2m from Bournmenouth but i guess the rivals thing comes into it as does the fact we''d need a decent other striker as well as Jerome. I wouldn''t fancy putting too much faith in Hooper or RvW until they have shown a bit more in their chances they will get if Jerome got injured.

Ideally for me by the end of the window, we have:

Mbokani

Jerome

Gayle

RvW

This assuming Austin is a no go. If RvW can be moved on then add Murray to that list.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

*RvW has skills that I like and I would like to work with him. He needs some technical re-assistance to re-know what he already can do and some gentle, warming psychology. His flaws look more like paralysis through analysis and, if maximised, it is not impossible that he could play within the current system, with a little tweaking from him and others around him.

It was also an aide memoire to a general point about transfers and something of an answer to the legendary riddle "..but where''s all the money gone Neil..?.."

(apologies to those who''ve seen it elsewhere)

"A £15m player is actually a £25m player.

Too many posts here refer to purchase price as the cost to the club.

It is not.

£15m player = (say) £50k per week = £10m contract over 4 years.

Let us leave our signing on fees, bonus clauses, staged payments et al, the club must account for the £25m.

This £25m player might look cheap in the Premier League, though he must also be paid in the Championship where he looks like an expensive white elephant.

As we have seen withe perfectly pleasant RvW, high purchase fee and high wages are no guarantee of resale value or resale at all.

A business simply cannot do what simplistic fans do and nominate every player they can think of as a roaring success. The alternative must be prepared for. Mitigated against via research, scouting, analysis and due diligence, but the reality of the cost is far, far beyond the initial outlay. "

Parma

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Of course RvW is expensive but that''s done now. All we can do is judge the present situation. As it stands, there''s nobody that will take him for a suitable amount and the alternative is keeping him and using him.

That is for AN to judge. If he is good enough to be 3rd choice, his past fee matters not. While we have him, we might as well try get the best out of him. Hopefully he gets a chance at the weekend from the bench as I doubt Mbokani will be elligible anyway if he signs. A wolfy goal at the weekend and Mbokani joining, we suddenly look dangerous up top.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

Certainly TJ.

To paraphrase:

"RvW as third or fourth choice in the Premier League. Where did it all go wrong Neil...?.."

Parma

[wooster 134]

Parma,

I''m grateful, as ever, for your thoughts and explanations.

I have a profound wish that we can resurrect RVW''s career both for his and the club''s benefit. Excuse my naivety but I think it helps that we now have an attack-minded manager and, with the signing of Brady and the retention of Redmond (hopefully) we have two wingers (not inverted) who can get the ball behind the defence for strikers to run on to. This seems to play to RVW''s strengths.

So, whilst I accept that may be not how we set things up from the outset, it does seem to offer an alternative that would make RVW a successful sub when we''re chasing a game.

Or is this tosh?

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

Hmm RvW Woost, a conundrum.....

Time is a precious commodity in football and as TJ has stated the clock cannot be turned back. As a coach I would love a one month commission to work with RvW.

The solution lies within him more than it does with others at this stage, though there are tactical approaches that would favour his specific skills and they are not so far removed from the way we play to make him "unsuitable" for the role in the way that Hooper is.

His movement is of good quality, he peels away from defenders into good areas and is capable of stretching defences - a key function of Neil''s line striker role - though he does require a higher quality of ball to succeed, asking more of teammates. Passes to him must be made from midfield and need to be slid into three quarter channels. These are nice, effective and desirable passes, but they are not easy to play without quality vision and technique from others and not many can typically be achieved over 90 minutes. His confidence does not currently see him running dynamically with the ball or dribbling positively into space or at players. I would like to work closely with him to see if this can be discovered/recovered.

Brady and Redmond are not wingers in the 442 chalk-on-the-boots sense however. I doubt we will see Redmond as that kind of winger any more and heaven be praised for that. Invertion should also not be a stick to beat a manager with, there are perfectly good tactical and technical reasons why this can be a thoroughly good idea.

Neil is also not an attacking manager per se. He is a positive manager, who likes to provide clear instruction, defined roles and responsibilities and a number of core principles in the pattern of play, that he might not like me to spell out on here.

9 will touch on an innovation for the modern game as promised, though it will also emphasise that Neil''s attacking derives - as it should - from defensive movement and positional awareness. The smooth interlinking between the phases is dynamic and positive and leads to good attacks. This is far more 3D than "attacking" in conventional understanding.

Neil has coached Redmond hard and he is vastly improved for not being a winger. His fluidity, defensive positioning, awareness of the positioning of others and indeed his tactical starting positions have all changed notably and significantly. I have been critical of Redmond for a long time, but I also questioned what instructions and coaching he received. The fluidity injected into his game, his work between the the lines, the positions he takes up without the ball are radically improved. In business terms we are finally sweating one of our key assets. He needed to be taught, there is no shame in that.

Parma

[Carrow89 0]

Probably because no such bid has been tabled. I doubt any enquiry from Bournemouth has come anywhere near that figure. That is why he has not been moved and the board has said that their bid was no where near what they valued Grabban at either . I suspect that it was a cheeky bid to take Grabban back for what is still probably owed on the staged payments. Remember the figure quoted comes from the media not either club.

[ron obvious 1,501]

I''m probably (alright, certainly) being over-optimistic here, but it occurs to me that RvW''s best moments (all 3 of them) have come when he hasn''t got time to think& reacts purely instinctively (his header against Everton being the prime example). We all know what happens when he''s got a bit of time & space ....

So, given the generally excellent level of PL defending, he''s unlikely to get much room for manoeuvre, but if he can use his clever runs to just slip in ahead of defenders, his instinct might take over, & - bingo! Thing is, we''ve now got players capable of spotting said clever runs. Thus he might actually perform better this time round.

How about that for a Cunning Plan? It''s a bit of a long shot, but it might just work ...

Sorry, but I just love being optimistic!

P.S. He is pants though.

[Leedscanary 337]

It''s good Parma, but you''re no James Kent 😉

[i,coopius 0]

Oh most definitely /\ /\ /\ this /\ /\ /\

[Yellow Shirt 17]

Lovely insights throughout the thread Parma, thank you.

However, does your OP not overlook the possibility that AN will take the line that you cannot force a move and so will not sell?

If his message to players has been that either you get on board or you get to train with the youth squad in the past then the what happened this past week will be the one thing that ensures Grabban will not be sold.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

You are right Camicia Giallo, but I exclude it because it is not the most likely option. This does not mean that it cannot indeed come to pass and be presented post-hoc in the way you describe.

Transfer negotiations are more subtle that many would realise and there are rules and roles that each party must adhere to. As it stands Norwich have isolated Grabban, but have also thrown the responsibility for his happiness onto Bournemouth to prevent an underbid. Behind the scenes it will all be about ensuring the bid is raised and face is saved all round. The danger is Bournemouth now bid somewhat less.

At this point Norwich will get in Grabban''s head and say how Bournemouth don''t really value him, it was all a destabilising game and they don''t rate him after all.

At this point Grabban will be all over his agent, staring to worry and end up looking a foolish outcast. They will be pushing Bournemouth to make good on their promise after "he''s gone to all this trouble".

I would thoroughly expect a deal to be completed at likely not much more than the current too offer (perhaps even a slight restructuring). Neil can still play the "my way or the highway"''card to the troops and media, Bournemouth get the much better back up they need and Norwich get good money for an expendable asset, plus an unexpected positive contribution to the last-minute pot.

Should this not occur as stated, then an entirely different reality will be presented. One that nevetheless confirms to the set-piece message-sending scenario, namely that "Norwich won''t be pushed around...someone has to take a stand against player power...the manager and club have the control....anybody stepping out of line will deal with the consequences.....and finally rehabilitation for those who are needed (nb: see Parma''s law of football rehabilitation: the length of time required for rehabilitation is inversely proportional to the importance of the player to the team at any given point).

Parma

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

Judging from many of the threads discussing transfers, fees, ambition and our place in the food chain, it might be helpful to highlight how opposing positions are presented to the media, distorting fans understanding.

Let us take the example of Robbie Brady. Many a post lamented our "low bids", "lack of ambition" and how we got "forced to pay what Hull wanted". Some seemed to take these thoughts and characterise our negotiating as flawed.

These views are media-coloured and the difference between the "insulting £3m bid" and the final agreed happy-place "£7m fee" may in actual fact be very little.

All statements will be true, but selective camera-pointing from each side is designed to give a particular media impression. Journalists often collaborate in this process as headlines with the water taken out of the whisky make better copy. The reality is more prosaic.

The belief that clubs make a £3m cash bid and then get driven up to £7m cash in a Dutch auction is simplistic and inaccurate.

The original "insulting £3m bid"''that Steve Bruce talked about may count the immediate payment cash element of the bid, but deliberately discount any performance-related, success-related deferred payments (staying up, 100 league games played, cup or Europe qualification, staged payments in later seasons).

Conversely the final, agreed "£7m fee" may well not in practice be very different to the original offer, with perhaps £0.5m more in immediate cash, payment at 50 league games, no European element, a buyback clause upon relegation/promotion.

"Our transfer policy is in disarray" or "''our negotiating is a joke" is based on the necessary media presentation of diametrically opposed interests, whose best interests are served in emphasising, exaggerating and feeding the media mis-representing of the distance between the parties.

It should be noted that upon completion of the deal, the buying party do not want to look unambiguous and know that the fans love to see big numbers against players.

This leads to the tendency of final few presentation to be inflated to its highest possible outcome, with all potential add-ons included. This comes to suit both parties, or at least the buyer minds far less than the seller, who absolutely must justify the sale to their fans.

Parma

[lake district canary 4,531]

  [:)] Well explained, although the implication is what most of us realise - that most of  those that start shouting down the club are doing so because they would rather bash the club than think it is doing the right thing. 

On the Grabban front, he has, as you imply, blotted his copybook twie, once with that punch and now this.   I did not understand that punch at the time - it seemed out of character - but now it is fairly plain to see that his ego gets the better of him too easily.   He now seems to me to be a player who needs to be seen as the main man - when he was dropped last season because Jerome did better than him, whenever he came on after that, he never looked at the races.  Then after that punch, he didn''t get much of a look in towards the end of the season - and then Jerome selected ahead of him this season.  So he does actually appear to not be the kind of player  we want/need. 

I hope that whatever happens - whether its a move away or an attempt to bring him back into the fold - that he learns from the situation and grows up a bit - accepts that he is not always going to be the main man and buckles down to his football.   The attempt by Bournemouth to get him back is just pandering to his ego - for him it is like running back to Mum where he feels wanted - to Bn''mth though he would be - as you say - in the same position as he is here - second or third choice - but at least he would be with Mum........

[Yelloow Since 72 54]

This is the sort of thread that restores my faith in Messageboards. Parma''s contributions are always a good read and the insights here are excellent. I can''t believe how easily some posters were sucked into believing the deliberate misleading actions of Bruce and the press during the ''Brady saga''. The analysis of the ''Grabban saga'' is also thorough and well argued, avoiding any emotional knee jerk reactions.

[Platonic 1]

This is great, Parma, thanks.

Does anyone have a handy link to Parma''s other masterclasses? It beats having to wade through ''hunt the Waveney'' myself..

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="Platonic"]This is great, Parma, thanks.

Does anyone have a handy link to Parma''s other masterclasses? It beats having to wade through ''hunt the Waveney'' myself..[/quote]

Just punch in "masterclass" into the "search forum" box.  They are all there.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

Post script:

The sale of Bradley Johnson brings into sharp focus the realities of buying and selling footballers.

As a club you can only buy what people will sell and only sell what people will buy. The second part of this equation has long been the bane of clubs of lesser means, as your "old friends" or left over stock that hold you back financially and tactically, are not the ones that people knock on your door to buy.

Bradley Johnson''s transfer may represent both the good, decent things about Norwich and the realities of imperfect choices.

Derby made a significant bid (with a positive cash structure) that met the valuation of the club. They presented the offer to Johnson.

Johnson will have spoken to his agent (who is likely to have said the offer is a good one) and also to Alex Neil directly, asking him about his immediate first team prospects.

Never forget that good players, with good attitudes want to play football. They also want to feel that they are currently a name on the first XI team sheet. Alex Neil is unlikely to have guaranteed this. He is also likely to have said that it was a good price, a good club, but that he would prefer that he stayed to fight for his place.

Johnson is likely to have stated at this point that he wanted to be in the heart of the action and that if he wasn''t central, he''d prefer to go somewhere he was. It is likely that very much because he was POTS, respected and had "earned his move", that Norwich treated him fairly and "let him go".

Other clubs simply do not want your outcast number 20-24, they sniff around your number 12-15 and offer them the promise of pretence of a first team, central role. This is very much the danger of the jump from Champs to Prem. there is a gulf, you parachute in players who might be good enough, you lose good, wholehearted better-than-champs players and - when you get relegated - the parachute ins parachute out and you haven''t been able to hold on to your worthy, decent characters, who are not quite up to the skill level required, but who you''d love to keep.

Sir Alex Ferguson''s skills (and perhaps Lambert''s too) were keeping 14-18 happy, valued and involved. They were also on plenty of money, with plenty of titles in their cabinet in United''s case (and not really that desirable to anyone else in Lambert''s).

Johnson''s transfer is the product of the imperfect nature of rapid ascent into a money-distorted higher echelon. You cannot always grow and keep. You cannot always improve from the top and detach from the bottom.

You cannot choose from perfection. It isn''t on offer.

Parma

[ricardo 7,347]

As usual Parma hits the nail on the head.