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Parma Ham's gone mouldy

Parma Ham's Tactics Masterclass 7

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It seems to be taken as given that our chief defensive weakness is on the right side, and the Martin/Whittaker combination is chiefly responsible. What objective evidence is there backing up this claim? It is not enough to cite this or that example (you can easily cite examples of failures on the left side of our defence as well). Can we have some objective evidence please.

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[quote user="mrs miggins"]Don''t take this the wrong way, but have you been to see the games this season?[/quote]

Since I live in California I can only "see" the games when streamed. But that is irrelevant to my question. What I know is that we had the third best defensive record in the division last season, conceding (from memory) 48 goals. My question is about what proportion of those goals conceded were really attributable to the (perceived) weakness of the right side of our defence. Perception and reality are two different things. I''m asking for objective confirmation that what you and others "perceive" actually represents the reality of our defensive performances.

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Remember though, we''re not talking about the championship, we''re in the Prem. By saying we had the best defensive record in the championship doesn''t mean that Whittaker will be that good in the PL, the same as Martin, or any other player for that matter. By giving stats from this season (though will briefly below) I''m not sure how much of a baring it will have on the next considering the vastly different nature of both leagues.

I want us to replace both Martin at CB (move to RB possibly) because if you take a player like Olsson for example, he''s had a pretty poor season this year in the championship, yet in the PL he''s awesome because it suits his game more (probably why a few clubs wanted him on the last day of january). I also feel the same way about Martin; he''s had a fairly good season this year in terms of performance (scoring a rating of 7.10 on whoscored) next to Bassong (7.29) but think his game is not best suited to the Championship due to the physical nature of it. However, although he may get better at CB in the Prem, his defensive attributes are not up to the standards of Bassong and is why I say Van Dijk would be the perfect signing (rumoured yesterday that we were leading the chase for) as he represents this ball playing CB, but simply has better defensive attributes. And I think thats my argument; what attributes we need in the system that we play:

We need an offensive LB - Check

A strong CB(L) - Check

A ball playing CB(R) -Check

Either a solid RB (Martin) if Redmond is to be used as a right winger. Or a right wing back (Whittaker) if Redmond is to be used in a free-er role like he has been doing. - Check

I can''t see us getting any better than Olsson (was great in the PL last time) or Bassong (POTS in the first year) yet I can see there being room to improve on the attributes of the RB area. AN will either go with a pacey right wing back which does the same role as Whitts atm (play as almost a right winger and put lots of crosses in), or he''ll get a more steady head in this position and use him as a traditional RB, and use Redmond as more of a winger than he has been doing recently. Like I say, I hope we can also improve our ball playing CB, however I also realise that you are looking for stats for me to prove why I think we can get better than Martin and Whitts at CB and RB. I can''t help but feel if you could see the games you''d think the same as the majority of ncfc fans as you''d realise stats don''t always reflect what you see. If Bassong makes more tackles than Martin, or vice versa, does that make him a better tackler than him? If Bassong headers more than Martin, does that make him a better header of the ball?

You''re right in saying that I am perceiving what is happening, but lets not forget, this is simply called having an opinion, the same as all other posters on here. To figure out the ''reality of our defensive performances'' is an extremely complicated and complex issue and I''m not going to claim to know this ''reality'' and nor are/do other posters....I just think its probably just easier to get better players than the ones you''ve got from simply saying what you see on the pitch.

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"]It seems to be taken as given that our chief defensive weakness is on the right side, and the Martin/Whittaker combination is chiefly responsible. What objective evidence is there backing up this claim? It is not enough to cite this or that example (you can easily cite examples of failures on the left side of our defence as well). Can we have some objective evidence please.[/quote]

Having been to several games this season and then seeing all the goals on TV, I would say that many of the goals have been down to midfield mistakes, lack of covering from midfield or for some you just have to hold your hands up and say the opposition goals were "too good".  How many mistakes have Martin and Whittaker made that have directly led to goals?  Very few is the answer.    Whittaker improved through the season and ended up one of our strongest performers - and imo deserves to be allowed to carry on in that position, albeit with someone as competition to keep him up to scratch (not Martin, who is now a CB first).   Martin too, as club captain and leader of a side promoted to the top division deserves the same - with the same proviso of someone behind him as competition.

There are better players out there - of course there are, otherwise we would be a top six premier league side - but players in possession of the shirt should have the respect they deserve for achieving what they have achieved and Whittaker and Martin for me have been part of an improving back four under AN - and they will imo continue to improve.  Get others in, by all means, as support and competition -we need that - but a solid, improving and established back four is what we have - and we should appreciate that and I for one would prefer to see the present incumbents in the back four next season - unless we can spend out £10m +  and get hugely better - and that imo, is not going to happen.

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I appreciate your bothering to reply so fully Mrs M, and you have again made your assessment of where we most need strengthening abundantly clear. However I don''t understand what evidence there is for saying a player is defensively weak other than the frequency with which goals are conceded due to defensive lapses on that player''s part. It doesn''t matter how much onlookers break out into a cold sweat when the opposition mount an attack against what is perceived to be our weak flank if the reality is that such attacks seldom lead to goals. Again, what does it mean to say that Bassong is a better defender than Martin, or Olsson than Whittaker, if the reality is that more goals are conceded due to lapses by the former as opposed to the latter?

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Again, what does it mean to say that Bassong is a better defender than Martin, or Olsson than Whittaker, if the reality is that more goals are conceded due to lapses by the former as opposed to the latter?

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And this may be the case, but does this mean that Bassong is therefore a worse defender? No. Does it mean that he is a better defender? Again, No.

When deciding whether a player is better than another, it is often more beneficial to see what attributes they have and also how seamlessly they can slot into the team; therefore stats really have little relevance when talking about defenders especially, this is also why we''ve seen the Brentford manager Warburton walk away from his job, because he realises this.

The first half of the season I would say Whittaker and Olsson were by far the worst performers in our team. Why do I say this? Well I have this opinion from what I saw, I don''t have any evidence or stats for this as there''s little around due to it being only half a season, though if there were I wouldn''t be surprised if the stats backed this up (yet as I say I''m not using stats for this as there really isn''t much about). A few months into AN''s time here, Whittakers performances improved drastically because the team was shaped to help accommodate his attributes -lack of defensive positioning and offensive positioning with Redmond on the wing with him (- which is described in a previous post of mine on this thread). Although Whitts'' performances improved Olsson''s didn''t which is why I think he had the worst season out of all the Norwich players. I''ll repeat this - I think Olsson had the worst season out of all the other regular first team players.The stats show that he did indeed have the worst season out of the first team (outfield position) -link below- but even with this, does it mean that he''s the ''weak link'' in our squad for the upcoming season? No. Does this mean I think he should be dropped to the bench/replaced/sold? No, I think Olsson is a fantastic player and one that will do really well next season in a division that suits him. Where''s the evidence for this? Well there isn''t any, I''m afraid you''re going to have to deal with this statement as an opinion. I don''t have any evidence (in terms of stats) that indicates that he''ll benefit the team next season. The reason why I think he''ll do so well is from the knowledge of his attributes; he''s can put in a good cross, he does like to get forward, he has got a bit of pace in him and he will be playing in a league that I think he''s more suited to and a league that in my opinion he played well in. I realise this isn''t the answer that you''re looking for but I''m not sure of the sort of ''evidence'' you''re looking for. I think my example of Warburton makes this clear; stats (if thats what you mean by evidence) often don''t equate to a great deal when talking about defenders who are pretty evenly matched (unlike striker where you can simply look at their goal tally and you have a pretty clear understanding of whether they can find the net or not).

http://www.whoscored.com/Teams/168/

Yet who am I to say that Whittaker and Martin are definitely the weak links in our team?; I don''t, I say and indicate on a forum that my opinion is that they are the weak links in the team from what I''ve seen; the only evidence for this is by watching them, from seeing some stats e.g. who scored.com and also from a people of whom I talk about football with. The reality is not in the stats, the reality comes much more from seeing what''s on the pitch, from the minds of tactical geniuses such as Mourinho, Fergie,Clough etc, not from the likes of me and Parma and certainly not from the likes of LDC. No-one, no matter how great can claim to know the exact reality of their team, only the theory that they have arrived at. What separators the greatest managers from the failed ones is that their theories are better. How can we know this? well, the only way we can know this - through trial and error.

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The argument about the importance of statistical analysis has been settled long since (as a look at the ever expanding budgets assigned to it by clubs testifies). I''m interested though in your saying:

"When deciding whether a player is better than another, it is often more beneficial to see what attributes they have and also how seamlessly they can slot into the team"

This I agree with, but then I am even more puzzled by your assessment of Martin at RCB because, as Parma has so clearly pointed out, our captain has a set of attributes that do indeed allow him to slot seamlessly into our team, and which are such as to enable him to slot even more seamlessly into a side set up for the Premier League.

I agree we need a CB, but as a replacement for Turner, not Martin. And we certainly need another RB just as, IMO, having let Garrido go we need cover for Olsson.

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As you say, we need cover at LB as Garrido went. But Why do you say we need a replacement for Turner and not Martin? Do you simply mean that we need someone with his sort of attributes e.g. Tall, good in the air (like Ryan Bennet)?

We only have one proper ball playing CB at the club in Martin, unfortunately his defensive work lets him down, yet luckily he has also played RB his whole career. My point about Martin isn''t that he doesn''t fit into the team, it''s just that we can quite easily get someone who has his attributes (ball playing defender) yet can also defend better than he can.

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All I meant was that, with Turner gone, we are short of cover at CB. In particular I think we need cover for Bassong. And on that point, if we want another ball playing CB, there is no reason why he shouldn''t be left sided is there?

As to Martin''s defensive weakness, we''ll just have to differ (tho'' I''d still like to know what actual basis there is for this view of him as defensively unsound).

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[quote user="mrs miggins"] My point about Martin isn''t that he doesn''t fit into the team, it''s just that we can quite easily get someone who has his attributes (ball playing defender) yet can also defend better than he can.[/quote]

Among all your posts about Martin, it is clear you don''t rate him highly enough at CB but would tolerate him at RB. Evidence would suggest that at right back he is even more susceptible to pace than he is at CB and it is surely one of the reasons he saw himself as a CB -  to enable him to progress in his career.   I still like him at CB  and want to see how the present defensive incumbents play next season under AN - because they sure as heck worked a lot better as the season wore on - and an established and improving back four is exactly what we need next season.   With Mulumbu, Tettey, Dorrans etc etc, we are likely to have a good set up, with good covering back from midfield and allowing Olsson and Whittaker to get forward as much as possible, as they have done this season. 

I do hope we get one or two defenders in as competition for places and regardless of whether you rate my opinion or not, I know I have seen enough from Martin - this season and in previous seasons -  to know that I would definitely not want him at right back again in the premiership and that he has shown more than enough to carry on being captain at CB next season - where he will continue to improve - and that is my point - the back four are established and improving.  You mess with that only if you have to - and imo we don''t have to, just get some competition/cover in and if in due course they break in to the team so be it, but changing the back four it is not an immediate necessity - imo. 

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"As to Martin''s defensive weakness, we''ll just have to differ (tho'' I''d still like to know what actual basis there is for this view of him as defensively unsound)."

Personally think he''s a good solid RB. I think he''s defensively unsound at CB, mainly from aerial threats. He gets out-muscled in the air far too much (mainly due to his height perhaps), also his decision making defensively is not all that good which partly ties into his defensive positional play along with all the rest previously mentioned in other posts.

Again, in the championship there aren''t many streams around so can understand if you have your own vision of how he plays, perhaps this is from some of the games that you did see this season e.g. the Final perhaps or the Semi-Finals v the scum perhaps? I''ve tried to answer your question on what basis I view him defensively unsound, which the main answer is; I''ve seen him play a lot this season at CB so have formed an opinion of his defensive work. On the flip-side I would ask you the same question; on what actual basis do you think Martin is defensively sound at CB? As I''ve said previously, in the role of a CB, stats mean little, as well as the fact that you''ve said that you haven''t seen them/him play all that many times this season, so therefore was wondering what you do base your opinion of him on.

"And on that point, if we want another ball playing CB, there is no reason why he shouldn''t be left sided is there?"

If this is to go in the first team, it would then also be essential that this defender can also do the proper dirty work as much as Bassong does if he was to play alongside Martin. In the partnership Martin naturally covers Bassong as Seb is obviously better in the air and stronger. If we were essentially going to have 2 Martin''s though in which they are quite good on the ball, but can''t attack the ball well enough when defending, it would be suicidal. Of course though, if we were to buy a player like Martin (with his attributes), we could always play him with Ryan Bennet who plays at right centre back who''s much more like Turner.

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So LDC you think we shouldn''t ''mess'' with the back 4. This is a back 4 of Olsson Bassong Martin Whittaker. You think this is the best we can do next season?

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I haven''t at any point claimed that Martin is defensively sound. I''ve simply asked what the basis is of the view that he is defensively unsound (a view which, on the evidence of this and other threads, is clearly not shared by everyone who has the good fortune to attend matches).

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indeed, what I should''ve/shall ask you is why you disagree with the view that Martin has the defensive weakness which I have stated? Note this is not me saying that you don''t think he has weaknesses in his game, simply not the ones I point out e.g. not good enough in the air & holds back in the tackle.

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"]I haven''t at any point claimed that Martin is defensively sound. I''ve simply asked what the basis is of the view that he is defensively unsound (a view which, on the evidence of this and other threads, is clearly not shared by everyone who has the good fortune to attend matches).[/quote]

Our defence did ok at championship level but you have to bear in mind that this was in the context of games where we were nearly always the stronger side and often had 60% possession. We didn''t concede that many goals but I think its true to say did concede from quite a high percentage of the shots that we actually allowed the opposition (which perhaps reflects the fact Ruddy didn''t have a brilliant season by his standards either).

I don;t have any stats to prove that Martin or Whitaker were the main weakness in the defence and its certainly true to say that Whits finished the season much better and Martin was excellent at Wembley. However, I do know what I see with my own eyes and in my opinion the right back/right sided CB channel was one of our main defensive frailties last season,. Thats not to say that we conceded lots of goals directly through that channel but when teams caused us problems and the team got caught out of shape it was often from moves starting down that side.

My issue with Martin at centre back is again not that he''s terrible and in fact i think his game there may be more suited to the premier league because he was face less aerial stuff most weeks than he did last season but he has two "issues" that would cause me concern there. the first is his tendancy to wave his leg at long balls and make "half clearances" which can put us under pressure. We saw this very clearly at Portman Road in the playoff semi where Ruddy''s double save got us off the hook the first time but they scored the second (Martin''s clearance admittedly not being the only error there).

The other thing I think he struggles a bit with at CB is getting caught underneath the ball or the wrong side of his man and thus outjumped by (often smaller) players. If you look at a number of the headed goals we conceded last season then you will see it was Martin being outjumped. Now obviously to a degree that goes with the job of being a CB (I am sure no CB wins every header) but my personal opinion is that this is a weakness in his game and one that has cost us a few goals.

Don''t get me wrong i''m happy to have a player such as Martin in the squad. he''s generally dependable and versatile and seems a good character. he will have an important role to play for us next season but i genuinely feel that if he starts regularly at centre back for us then then he (and his partnership with Bassong which has never been brilliant in terms of them holding a line) will be targetted by the opposition.

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Great post.

I would like to pick up on the point regarding that most fans look at creativity and i am 100% in agreement and find it a little annoying at times and hard to argue against as they disregard there other duties as a player.

Which brings me to Wes. Although he can be a great threat going forward his lack of defensive ability and physical strength at the top level is asking for trouble.

Also with the fact that Redmond assisted and scored more goals than Wes I feel we have a replacement if Redmond can indeed play in that "number 10" role. I do feel that wes is now past his best (I release the wes fans will be laughing but again this regards my first 2 points)

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@Jim Smith

Thanks for that Jim. Your mentioning Ruddy raises an interesting point. IMO he is still a long way off the level he was at when he was picked in the England squad and before his thigh injury. Yet I don’t think I’ve seen anyone suggesting he is a weak link in our defence. Given his size and (presumably) strength, you’d expect him to dominate his area far more than he does; to me he appears lacking in confidence and judgement. Like all half-decent keepers he makes some good saves, but I’d say he is far from being the best keeper we could attract and afford. All of which makes the fixation on Martin’s perceived weaknesses even odder as far as I’m concerned.

Re. your point about our susceptibility to attacks down our right flank, it isn''t fair to focus just on the RB/CB pairing. Defending and maintaining shape are a team responsibility and the problems, as others have said, have often had their origins higher up the field.

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mrs miggins wrote the following post at 25/06/2015 9:55 AM:

indeed, what I should''ve/shall ask you is why you disagree with the view that Martin has the defensive weakness which I have stated? Note this is not me saying that you don''t think he has weaknesses in his game, simply not the ones I point out e.g. not good enough in the air & holds back in the tackle.

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Would just like to bump this up in order for it to hopefully be answered

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[quote user="mrs miggins"]mrs miggins wrote the following post at 25/06/2015 9:55 AM:

indeed, what I should''ve/shall ask you is why you disagree with the view that Martin has the defensive weakness which I have stated? Note this is not me saying that you don''t think he has weaknesses in his game, simply not the ones I point out e.g. not good enough in the air & holds back in the tackle.

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Would just like to bump this up in order for it to hopefully be answered[/quote]

I always try to answer! (This isn''t my answer, I''ve currently got my hands full :-))

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Mrs M,

"Not good enough in the air" I suppose this is subjective as we probably all have an opinion on what good enough is, which will probably also change depending on the level the team is playing at. However, from what I''ve observed, he does OK, given that you would expect your CF to win approaching 50% of his aerial battles, so therefore if your CB is winning above say 60% then this could be considered ''good enough'' and I think he wins at least that percentage (no stats just my observations)

Coupled with this he is by no means a tall CB, which is something he can do nothing about, therefore given his height I think he is good enough; although I would always want a 6 foot plus CB to play alongside him,

When he does win headers he is very frequently good with his distribution too.

Turning to tackling, we''ve seen what devastation can occur if players jump too quickly in to tackles, from memory 3 penalties at least last season. RM tends to block moves by positioning and staying on his feet, a player going into a tackle unneccessarily and losing it means the attacker is now unmarked and in space and our defence is a man short.

So in summary, I don;t see his performnce in these two areas as weaknesses, is he the best in the league, probably not, but without spending quite a few quid I think we would be very unlikely to find a player with a better all round game, and if we could would they come and could we afford the salary.

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@Mrs Miggins

Quote: “Indeed, what I should''ve/shall ask you is why you disagree with the view that Martin has the defensive weakness which I have stated? Note this is not me saying that you don''t think he has weaknesses in his game, simply not the ones I point out e.g. not good enough in the air & holds back in the tackle.”

What I am trying to get to the bottom of is why you and others focus so specifically on Martin (and Whittaker) when similar criticisms could be made about everyone in the side. All our players have their strengths and weaknesses, are good at this. less good at that. John Ruddy is a pertinent example (see my reply to Jim above).

Indeed I can illustrate my puzzlement by comparing Ruddy and Martin. For the last couple of years or so Martin has been first choice RCB for Scotland. Let’s imagine that Ruddy was qualified and willing to play for Scotland. Would he have been first choice goalkeeper ahead of the actual Scotland keepers? I don’t think so. So we have the, to me, curious situation that someone who is good enough to be first choice for his country is not good enough to be first choice for us, while someone who would not be first choice internationally apparently is.

I am quite happy to accept that Russ Martin is not the best header of a football. But as Ray has already said, that doesn’t mean he is “not good enough in the air” to be our first choice RCB in the PL. Likewise, I am happy to acknowledge that Martin tends “to hold back in the tackle” but, like Ray, I don’t see that as necessarily a weakness.

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As a postscript to my para about puzzlement, one of the two players compared featured in the PFA Team of the Year 2015, and it wasn''t John Ruddy.

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