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pete

Wednesday record at City

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Won last 4. Won 4 of last 5 away. Time to reverse the trend but I do have tickets which is bad news for us.

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[quote user="Mr Jenkins"]Two games in three days, it''s quite an ask for them.😄[/quote]Indeed, our extra days rest could be vital. Especially to Tettey.

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Yeah, I''m starting to get the feeling that AN is the kind of guy that bucks trends and ignores irrelevant stats .. He"s probably working out how to beat Chelsea at Stamford bridge next season.

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Their record this season does suggest they are not the easiest to break down defensively. They have won 32 points away (only 22 at home) and in the whole division, only Middlesborough have conceded fewer goals.

Let''s hope for an early goal to open them up a bit and for others to consolidate.

OTCB.

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On paper this is our easist game left.

An upper mid table team (We usually beat those) with nothing to play for at home, while we''re on a high and had an extra days rest on them. Leeds and Bolton away and Fulham at home really worry me but I don''t even see this as a potential banana skin. We''ll score around the 30 minute mark and go onto win 3/4-1.

We struggle against packed defences and quick, fast, clever attacking movement but Wednesday are a pretty standard balanced team. They''ll sit back, but not like a really poor side scrapping for their lives would and when they attack they''ll hit the wings and look for crosses instead of trying to play through our middle which we can deal with all day long.

This and Rotherham are what I see as our banker games, if we somehow fail to win this I''ll be pretty down about our chances to be honest!

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Why on earth should our record against Wednesday (or anybody) in the last five games count for anything? Was this XI playing their current XI? Nope. Therefore pretty irrelevant. We should beat them but if we don''t play as well as we can and they have a blinder then we won''t. Simple.

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[quote user="foxruels"]Why on earth should our record against Wednesday (or anybody) in the last five games count for anything? Was this XI playing their current XI? Nope. Therefore pretty irrelevant. We should beat them but if we don''t play as well as we can and they have a blinder then we won''t. Simple.[/quote]So we don''t need to worry about Fulham either? Wow, that''s a relief. Trouble is, the stats show that these "irrelevancies" are actually not so irrelevant after all. It''s all concealed in your "if we don''t play as well as we can". This kind of record, "we never get what we want against Fulham", "Wednesday are a bogey team for us" can be a factor in how well the team play.

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......... and a factor in how the other team plays. Do you think the Fulham players don''t rub their hands when playing us? They come out full of confidence and play above themselves. The chances of us playing below our best and the opponents having a blinder are actually increased by these "records".

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westcoastcanary wrote the following post at 06/04/2015 8:02 AM:

".The chances of us playing below our best and the opponents having a blinder are actually increased by these records"

Sorry but there is no way I can buy that statement, the only thing most of our guys will know about Wednesday is that they have a very good keeper who played a blinder in the last fixture. Even more motivation to put a few past him surely.

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What may prove to be the decisive historic result for today''s games is the 8 nill trouncing that Bournmouth gave Birmingham earlier in the season, can''t see those Blue nose boys needing any more motivation than the odd press cutting on the changing room wall!!

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Records like this mean nothing unless there is some kind of logic behind them, like one side is much bigger than the other and rightly wins every time.Sheff Wed are hardly a Man Utd or Man City.

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[quote user="morty"]Records like this mean nothing unless there is some kind of logic behind them, like one side is much bigger than the other and rightly wins every time.Sheff Wed are hardly a Man Utd or Man City.[/quote]Exactly Morty, these "records" are not random, there are real factors underlying them. So they can''t be dismissed as irrelevant without analysing those factors and seeing whether they can reasonably be discounted in this next instance. Furthermore, the mere existence of the "record" can become a factor in itself. Jenks doesn''t buy this, but if he talked to Fulham players I think he woulod take a different view.

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"][quote user="morty"]Records like this mean nothing unless there is some kind of logic behind them, like one side is much bigger than the other and rightly wins every time.Sheff Wed are hardly a Man Utd or Man City.[/quote]Exactly Morty, these "records" are not random, there are real factors underlying them. So they can''t be dismissed as irrelevant without analysing those factors and seeing whether they can reasonably be discounted in this next instance. Furthermore, the mere existence of the "record" can become a factor in itself. Jenks doesn''t buy this, but if he talked to Fulham players I think he woulod take a different view.[/quote]A lot of the record is likely from when we last had an extended spell in the Championship, when Sheff Wed probably were a bigger club than we were at the time.

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Westy

"Furthermore, the mere existence of the "record" can become a factor in itself. Jenks doesn''t buy this, but if he talked to Fulham players I think he woulod take a different view."

If you play roulette Westy everytime the wheel is spun there is a fifty fifty chance of a red or a black coming up( apart from the zero of course). Of course it doesn''t play out that we see alternate blacks and whites all the time or everybody would win, on a roulette wheel you can see a run of reds or blacks maybe 12 or 14 in succession but the odds before each spin are fifty fifty.

In any event like this that is repeated you will from time to time see a string of results that repeat themselves, it has nothing to do with bogey teams or mystical powers, it''s just the way things work.

Now in footy the odds can be weighted by the respective quality of the teams and that is what can change the likely outcome, as Morty said over a long string of games a big well resourced team is going to swing the odds in their favour, but that''s hardly the case with the likes of Norwich and Wednesday, or Fulham for that matter.

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[quote user="Mr Jenkins"]Westy

"Furthermore, the mere existence of the "record" can become a factor in itself. Jenks doesn''t buy this, but if he talked to Fulham players I think he woulod take a different view."

If you play roulette Westy everytime the wheel is spun there is a fifty fifty chance of a red or a black coming up( apart from the zero of course). Of course it doesn''t play out that we see alternate blacks and whites all the time or everybody would win, on a roulette wheel you can see a run of reds or blacks maybe 12 or 14 in succession but the odds before each spin are fifty fifty.

In any event like this that is repeated you will from time to time see a string of results that repeat themselves, it has nothing to do with bogey teams or mystical powers, it''s just the way things work.

Now in footy the odds can be weighted by the respective quality of the teams and that is what can change the likely outcome, as Morty said over a long string of games a big well resourced team is going to swing the odds in their favour, but that''s hardly the case with the likes of Norwich and Wednesday, or Fulham for that matter.[/quote]I think in the case of Fulham, for me, a lot has to do with the fixture list, it seems it has worked out in recent seasons that we play them when there is something big riding on it, which dramatically changes the odds.Because, if you look at it logically, Fulham aren''t so big a side that they have a right to beat us every time.

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We''re not talking about random sequences Jenks. As Morty says, there are underlying reasons. And nobody''s talking about mystical powers. The term "bogey team" is simply a way of  referring to the statistical record. What you and I are disagreeing about is my saying that the existence of the record can itself become a factor. My opinion is that it can, just as a player being ex-Ipswich can be a factor when he comes to play against us, or just as having a good scoring record against us can be a factor next time we meet (don''t tell me Luis Suarez didn''t lick his lips when the fixture came up).

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Alex Neil does not do "bogey teams".  He has shown even in the short time he''s been at CR that he has a sort of no ninsense approach that cuts through sentiment and just focuses on what is needed to be done.   Sheff Wed or Fulham........it matters not a jot what the record is.

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westcoastcanary wrote the following post at 06/04/2015 11:01 AM:

"What you and I are disagreeing about is my saying that the existence of the record can itself become a factor. My opinion is that it can, just as a player being ex-Ipswich can be a factor when he comes to play against us, or just as having a good scoring record against us can be a factor next time we meet"

It''s all a question of degrees Westy, there are many many things which may be "factors" in determining the result of a game, and I don''t deny that past history may be a factor. However surely the point is to what extent these factors actually have an influence on the outcome, in my opinion the historic record between us and Wednesday will have such a small influence on the outcome of this game as to be disregarded.

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[quote user="Mr Jenkins"]westcoastcanary wrote the following post at 06/04/2015 11:01 AM:

"What you and I are disagreeing about is my saying that the existence of the record can itself become a factor. My opinion is that it can, just as a player being ex-Ipswich can be a factor when he comes to play against us, or just as having a good scoring record against us can be a factor next time we meet"

It''s all a question of degrees Westy, there are many many things which may be "factors" in determining the result of a game, and I don''t deny that past history may be a factor. However surely the point is to what extent these factors actually have an influence on the outcome, in my opinion the historic record between us and Wednesday will have such a small influence on the outcome of this game as to be disregarded.[/quote]I think that there can be psychological factors if the fixture is a derby, or means something special to the players.I am sure it was in the back of a Newcastle minds yesterday how often Sunderland seem to turn them over, despite the fact a neutral would probably see toon as the bigger side.

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[quote user="lake district canary"]Alex Neil does not do "bogey teams".  He has shown even in the short time he''s been at CR that he has a sort of no ninsense approach that cuts through sentiment and just focuses on what is needed to be done.   Sheff Wed or Fulham........it matters not a jot what the record is.[/quote]A textbook non sequitur there LDC. No doubt you are right that AN has little truck with these sorts of  "records". Probably every City manager has similarly rubbished our "record" against Fulham when the fixture arrives. Has that made any difference? Before the Wigan game I posted on here raising the question of whether AN had eliminated our mental frailty when playing lowly teams who we are expected to easily beat. Well, he hadn''t and we didn''t.

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The history between two Clubs is just for the media and the fans to talk about prior to the game. Each two teams previous meetings and the factors determining those results, are different to any two other Clubs.

Taking the talking point of history influencing future meetings, can be sorted by removing players/managers/coaches who have featured in the time span you are talking about. So, that only counts Wes as having played in a losing team against them, as the factor, so Redders to start please AN!

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[quote user="westcoastcanary"][quote user="lake district canary"]Alex Neil does not do "bogey teams".  He has shown even in the short time he''s been at CR that he has a sort of no ninsense approach that cuts through sentiment and just focuses on what is needed to be done.   Sheff Wed or Fulham........it matters not a jot what the record is.[/quote]A textbook non sequitur there LDC. No doubt you are right that AN has little truck with these sorts of  "records". Probably every City manager has similarly rubbished our "record" against Fulham when the fixture arrives. Has that made any difference? Before the Wigan game I posted on here raising the question of whether AN had eliminated our mental frailty when playing lowly teams who we are expected to easily beat. Well, he hadn''t and we didn''t.[/quote]

Fair enough, but if any manager can do it, AN can and I believe will.  Also, I was at the game Nutty mentioned in 1972 and at the Sheff Wed away game where we drew 3-3, so history has its precedent too.  A team we can do well against, no problem.

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Agree it''s only one of many factors Jenks, and a question of degree. But as I just pointed out to LDC, the mentality involved is that of the players (and the crowd incidentally), not the manager. AN is reported to have told the team they need to win every game now. Do the players have the mental strength to make that happen, or are there heads there harbouring thoughts like "Wednesday have a good record against us" and "When did we last beat Fulham?" As far as I''m concerned that''s one of the fascinating unknowns to be revealed over the next few weeks. But one thing''s for sure, it''s the players who have to do the business, not the manager.

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I doubt the players have any knowledge of our record against Wednesday Westy, other than a memory of the last game they played where their keeper had a blinder,our guys will surely want to get a few past him today to make up for it.😄

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Wednesday have a terrific defensive record this year, very hard to break down. We are going to have to be patient .....unless we score early....say the first 15 minutes. If we do then SW might have to open up and it could be our day. I don''t believe in the kinds of stats about bogey teams and wouldn''t class Wednesday as one of them. We have done ok at their place I think over the years.

I am hoping for and expecting a win today. We look great in the last month. I don''t fear anybody anymore. We just need to do the stuff. Looking forward to 2nd or top at 5pm today.

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