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nutty nigel

Rays Funds for the CSF with the Pink un Pickers Week 38

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[quote user="Feedthewolf"]After much deliberating and soul-searching, I have plumped for the following six matches:RED BULL SALZBURG home winVALENCIA home winREGGIANA home winBRISTOL ROVERS home winMET POLICE home winand, with heart in mouth...NORWICH CITY away win.I have sent Eddie £20 to triple the stake, so if everything comes good we should be in for a healthy windfall! Let''s hope that on Monday night we''re all attentively keeping an eye on Valencia''s fortunes...FTW :)[/quote]

 

Fantastic Matt! Thank you for these and for the £20 to treble the bet! What a terrific result we could have if the football Gods are on our side. These look such a good six to me! I''ve placed the bet with Bet365 and the potential return is a mouth watering £174.94. Here are the details : -

 

Met Police

4/11

3:00 Sat

Kathy

Norwich

8/13

3:00 Sat

CTID, FTW, NBS

Salzburg

2/11

3:00 Sat

Tilly, Josh

Bristol Rovers

1/5

5:15 Sat

Graham, AJ

Reggiana

2/5

2:00 Sun

Parma

Valencia

1/3

7:45 Mon

nutty

 

So we have four tomorrow, one on Sunday and one on Monday. (No pressure there then[:S] ) [;)]

 

I think it''s a good omen that we have Tilly''s pick and the Old Bill together in the final six....

 

Good luck and many thanks again Wolfie[Y]

 

  

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I''m late too, sorry!

I''m going for a home win for Sporting Praha v. Zbrojovka Brno.

Good Luck, Feedthewolf!

Good Luck to Lessingham Canary for the match bet, too!

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[quote user="Lessingham Canary"]Good evening all ! Here are my "Norwich Match Picks",

£1 Jonathan Howson to score 1st Goal @ 9/1

£2 Norwich to win 3-1 @ 12/1

£1 Cameron Jerome to score 2 or more @15/2

£1 Bassong to score at anytime @ 11/1

£1 scorecast; Howson to score 1st and Norwich win 3-1 @ 75/1

All odds taken from bet 365, the scorecast is a blast at glory !

Many thanks for all your suggestions and with over 23 suggestions cant use everyone''s but hopefully a reflection of the general consensus and keeps everyone''s interest alive tomorrow afternoon and we can realise the right result.

The Rotherham points deduction today made me think a bit harder, but still think if we are serious about promotion we need to go there and win, so expecting an open game with them requiring points more than ever now.

Good luck everyone, especially FTW lets make this weekend count and do the PUP''s proud. OTBC[/quote]

 

WOW! What a brilliant job Lessingham. Thank you so much for these. If we get the luck we always need we could add a lot of money to the kitty. I''ve placed the bets to our best advantage and we have : -

 

Howson to score first goal.

£1.00 Bet 365

9/1

£10.00

Jerome to score 2 or more

£1.00 Bet 365

15/2

£8.50

Bassong to score anytime

£1.00 Bet 365

11/1

£12.00

Norwich to win 3-1

£2.00 Bill Hill

14/1

£30.00 

Howson 1st Norwich win 3-1

£1.00 Bill Hill

85/1

£86.00

 

I hope you enjoyed picking and enjoy the match tomorrow and following these selections. There is no pressure because the PUPs are all 100% behind you. Please come back and help the PUPs next week. Whatever happens with these selections having you on board will be a win. Good luck and here''s hoping for a PUPs win and a City win[Y]

 

 

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[quote user="Parma Hams gone mouldy"]Think it might be pledge time of the season...so to get the ball rolling I''ll chip £20 if Norwich get promoted...

Parma[/quote]

Great stuff Parma. There''s already some pledges carried over from the beginning of the season on this thread. Add it to that buddy and we can keep bumping it and keep track. How many more goals do ya reckon Hooper may get?? [;)]

 

http://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/3137249/ShowPost.aspx

 

 

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Im going fo Shrewsbury to win at Cheltenham.

For the Norwich bet a 3-0 win and a bradley Johnson goal.

Good luck Feedthewolf , lessingham canary and all

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Thanks Nigel, enjoyed it, fingers crossed we get the outcome we all want, early start tomorrow to head to Rotherham, so JH to set us on the way to a 3-1 win !

Thanks for allowing me to pick, will definitely join in and support others next week.

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Just couldn''t quite do it. Fine margins Wolfie!

And with our game Lessingham. 10 men made it so hard.

I still think we can win again this season.

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]Just couldn''t quite do it. Fine margins Wolfie!

And with our game Lessingham. 10 men made it so hard.

I still think we can win again this season.[/quote]I really hope we do! I almost hope one of my other picks doesn''t come in, because it would be horrible to miss out on such a large charity windfall due to the unprofessionalism of one of our own players.

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[quote user="Feedthewolf"][quote user="nutty nigel"]Just couldn''t quite do it. Fine margins Wolfie!

And with our game Lessingham. 10 men made it so hard.

I still think we can win again this season.[/quote]I really hope we do! I almost hope one of my other picks doesn''t come in, because it would be horrible to miss out on such a large charity windfall due to the unprofessionalism of one of our own players.[/quote]

 

And it was just as we feared. Valencia did the business tonight meaning a really unlucky 5/6. Just that Rovrum equaliser stopping that big win for the CSF. And just to rub salt in further the Italian game wasn''t listed with Bill Hill on Friday night so I placed the bet with Bet 365 only to find it listed by Hills on Saturday. So there''s no free bet insurance either! I probably should have waited so that''s down to me. Sorry PUPs.

 

So a really frustrating weekend all round. Here are the stats - 41 PUPs picked with 31 winning (76%). We ended with 26 options of which 17 won (65%). Wolfie''s 5/6 was a good effort considering those stats.

 

Tilly stays top after Salzburg''s win but Purple keeps the pressure on with just 2 weeks remaining. Pick of the week was certainly Wooster as he correctly picked another draw at 2.47. Here''s the latest table showing those with at least 50% correct from at least half the available weeks : -

 

PUP Wins Picks Win% Profitability
Til1010 35 38 92% 3.42
Purple Canary 34 38 89% 4.43
Chellecity 33 37 89% 4.51
Feedthewolf 32 36 89% 6.68
Yellowfuture 32 36 89% 5.85
CD Mullins 21 24 88% 2.64
Mr Angry 32 38 84% 4.64
Herman 31 37 84% 6.65
Mandie Moo 30 36 83% 6.06
Beauseant 20 24 83% -0.22
Kathy 27 33 82% 4.62
Twidio 18 22 82% 2.21
jb 31 38 82% 2.39
Hector Brockelbank 28 35 80% 0.93
Cosmic Twin 30 38 79% -1.47
Mandie Moo''s Mear Kat 26 33 79% 1.72
Parma ham''s gone mouldy 29 37 78% 3.29
Splutcho 25 32 78% 6.25
Vindo 27 35 77% -1.82
Bor Bor Bor 25 33 76% 3.80
Jellytot 20 27 74% 3.46
Hissing Sid 28 38 74% 1.11
Lappinitup 27 37 73% 8.97
Diesel Doris 27 37 73% 2.98
Inchy 27 37 73% 2.65
Statto28 27 37 73% -3.01
nutty nigel 27 38 71% 1.08
NWC 19 27 70% -1.71
Mr Apples 26 37 70% -0.79
Trent Canary 26 37 70% -4.00
Leedscanary 23 33 70% -4.45
Swindoncanary 25 36 69% -4.61
AJ 26 38 68% -0.24
Yankee 26 38 68% -4.17
Gregt 21 31 68% 2.62
Lake District Canary 21 31 68% 2.31
Graham Humphrey 25 37 68% -1.86
GMF 24 37 65% -2.22
Norfolkchance1 23 36 64% 2.56
Cityangel 21 33 64% -0.10
City-til-I-die 19 32 59% -4.86
Gingerpele 11 19 58% -1.72
DDD 14 26 54% -6.30
Pauls Ferry 11 21 52% -1.70

 

 

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Now we had some discussion about the profitability ratings that Parma helped me to compile earlier this season. I''m sure the idea has proved to be a success as. So while the league will be decided by the league table above for this season I think we should discuss ways of how we could incorporate profitability to a greater extent in the summer in time for next season.

 

Below is how the league looks sorting by profitability with the proviso that the picker has picked in half the available weeks. The thing that strikes me is that  27 PUPs have made a profit from the pound they started with. I

 

PUP Wins Picks Win% Profitability
Lappinitup 27 37 73% 8.97
Feedthewolf 32 36 89% 6.68
Herman 31 37 84% 6.65
Splutcho 25 32 78% 6.25
Mandie Moo 30 36 83% 6.06
Yellowfuture 32 36 89% 5.85
Mr Angry 32 38 84% 4.64
Kathy 27 33 82% 4.62
Chellecity 33 37 89% 4.51
Purple Canary 34 38 89% 4.43
Woostercanary 11 33 33% 4.33
Bor Bor Bor 25 33 76% 3.80
Jellytot 20 27 74% 3.46
Til1010 35 38 92% 3.42
Parma ham''s gone mouldy 29 37 78% 3.29
Diesel Doris 27 37 73% 2.98
Inchy 27 37 73% 2.65
CD Mullins 21 24 88% 2.64
Gregt 21 31 68% 2.62
Norfolkchance1 23 36 64% 2.56
jb 31 38 82% 2.39
Lake District Canary 21 31 68% 2.31
Twidio 18 22 82% 2.21
Mandie Moo''s Mear Kat 26 33 79% 1.72
Hissing Sid 28 38 74% 1.11
nutty nigel 27 38 71% 1.08
Hector Brockelbank 28 35 80% 0.93
Cityangel 21 33 64% -0.10
Beauseant 20 24 83% -0.22
AJ 26 38 68% -0.24
Mr Apples 26 37 70% -0.79
Cosmic Twin 30 38 79% -1.47
Pauls Ferry 11 21 52% -1.70
NWC 19 27 70% -1.71
Gingerpele 11 19 58% -1.72
Vindo 27 35 77% -1.82
The Great Drinkell 16 37 43% -1.86
Graham Humphrey 25 37 68% -1.86
GMF 24 37 65% -2.22
Statto28 27 37 73% -3.01
Trent Canary 26 37 70% -4.00
Yankee 26 38 68% -4.17
Leedscanary 23 33 70% -4.45
Swindoncanary 25 36 69% -4.61
City-til-I-die 19 32 59% -4.86
DDD 14 26 54% -6.30

 

 

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Nigel,

My idea of multiplying the win rate by the profitability level then combines reliability with "value", for want of a better word. This assumes equal weighting to each measure though I''m sure there''s argument for placing greater weight on reliability, given that we have to get 6 out of 6 to actually add to the PUPs pot.

I like Parma''s idea of a parallel competition.

PUP Wins Picks Win% Profitability Win x Prof

1 Lappinitup 27 37 73% 8.97 6.55

2 Feedthewolf 32 36 89% 6.68 5.95

3 Herman 31 37 84% 6.65 5.59

4 Yellowfuture 32 36 89% 5.85 5.21

5 Mandie Moo 30 36 83% 6.06 5.03

6 Splutcho 25 32 78% 6.25 4.88

7 Chellecity 33 37 89% 4.51 4.01

8 Purple Canary 34 38 89% 4.43 3.94

9 Mr Angry 32 38 84% 4.64 3.90

10 Kathy 27 33 82% 4.62 3.79

11 Til1010 35 38 92% 3.42 3.15

12 Bor Bor Bor 25 33 76% 3.80 2.89

13 Parma ham''s gone mouldy 29 37 78% 3.29 2.57

14 Jellytot 20 27 74% 3.46 2.56

15 CD Mullins 21 24 88% 2.64 2.32

16 Diesel Doris 27 37 73% 2.98 2.18

17 jb 31 38 82% 2.39 1.96

18 Inchy 27 37 73% 2.65 1.93

19 Twidio 18 22 82% 2.21 1.81

20 Gregt 21 31 68% 2.62 1.78

21 Norfolkchance1 23 36 64% 2.56 1.64

22 Lake District Canary 21 31 68% 2.31 1.57

23 Woostercanary 11 33 33% 4.33 1.43

24 Mandie Moo''s Mear Kat 26 33 79% 1.72 1.36

25 Hissing Sid 28 38 74% 1.11 0.82

26 nutty nigel 27 38 71% 1.08 0.77

27 Hector Brockelbank 28 35 80% 0.93 0.74

28 Cityangel 21 33 64% -0.10 -0.06

29 AJ 26 38 68% -0.24 -0.16

30 Beauseant 20 24 83% -0.22 -0.18

31 Mr Apples 26 37 70% -0.79 -0.55

32 The Great Drinkell 16 37 43% -1.86 -0.80

33 Pauls Ferry 11 21 52% -1.70 -0.88

34 Gingerpele 11 19 58% -1.72 -1.00

35 Cosmic Twin 30 38 79% -1.47 -1.16

36 NWC 19 27 70% -1.71 -1.20

37 Graham Humphrey 25 37 68% -1.86 -1.26

38 Vindo 27 35 77% -1.82 -1.40

39 GMF 24 37 65% -2.22 -1.44

40 Statto28 27 37 73% -3.01 -2.20

41 Trent Canary 26 37 70% -4.00 -2.80

42 Yankee 26 38 68% -4.17 -2.84

43 City-til-I-die 19 32 59% -4.86 -2.87

44 Leedscanary 23 33 70% -4.45 -3.12

45 Swindoncanary 25 36 69% -4.61 -3.18

46 DDD 14 26 54% -6.30 -3.40

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Its interesting Wooster and well worthy of consideration in the summer. For the rest of the season I will put up both the tables with profitability treated like an extra competition. Then we can look at it in the summer.

Poor old Tilly will be getting a complex.....

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Looks to me as though a few around here have fallen victim of the green eyed monster this season. As they say....jealousy is an ugly emotion. [:P]

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