Architects of our own downfall!

[morty 0]

[quote user="Wes Hooly Fan"]Neil Adams didn''t do quite as bad as some naysayers will have you believe.

Still, they can always claim they were ''right'' from the beginning and revel in Adams'' departure to prove they were right.[/quote][Y]

[Woodman 92]

The playoffs are a bit of a lottery, particularly the final.  As was said, we should prove over 2 legs that we are good enough to beat anyone in this league - Reading and Boro are the only teams to beat us twice and I don''t think Reading would do it again with Alex Neil in charge. His away record is phenomenal - unbeaten in fact.  The final is a one off, anything could happen, but I''m hoping we''ve had our bad luck from poor refereeing and sendings off.  I think we have enough about us to deal with Derby, Wolves, Ipswich or Brentford, and I''m hoping the recent bitter experience with Boro wouldn''t happen again. 

Everyone''s talking about playing Ipswich, but looking at the fixtures, I don''t think they''re going to finish in the top 6.  Brentford have Wigan and Wolves have Millwall, both will win at home, and an away game at Blackburn is no formality.  I think we''ll be playing Derby in the semis.  Equally, Boro are not certainties to make the final, if they finish 3rd, they''ll be playing one of the in form teams.

[can u sit down please 0]

The objective was to go up this season.

If we fail, who is accountable?

[Jim Smith 2,317]

[quote user="morty"][quote user="Wes Hooly Fan"]Neil Adams didn''t do quite as bad as some naysayers will have you believe.

Still, they can always claim they were ''right'' from the beginning and revel in Adams'' departure to prove they were right.[/quote][Y][/quote]

Neil Adams - 37 points from 24 games = 1.54 points per game = 71 (rounded up) points over a 46 game season. That would have us 9th in the table.

Alex Neil - 46 points from 21 games = 2.19 points per game = 101 (rounded up) points over a 46 game season. That would have us winning the league by at least 10 points.

So with essentially the same squad of players Alex Neil has achieved approximately 0.7 points per game more and over a whole season that would equate to a difference of 30 points.

Adams may not have been THAT bad in the sense he was just poor rather than a complete and utter disaster but his performance was quite poor when you look at what we have subsequently shown ourselves to be capable of and the decision to appoint him was also a poor one because people are/were not questioning it with the benefit of hindsight - we all knew at the time it was a huge, huge risk.

I don''t want to get into another "who else would you have appointed" debate here but I really don;t see how it can be argued that the decision to appoint him was right or that the decision to get rid of him was not right. I actually think Alex Neil has made a few mistakes during his tenure as well but they are he exception rather than the rule and he has generally shown himself to be highly competent.

[morty 0]

Jim, you have absolutely no way of knowing if Alex Neil would have achieved more points that Adams in those early season games, and no way of knowing what Adams would have achieved had he remained in charge.

Yes, you can make a best guess based on stats, but it is no more than that.

[morty 0]

CUSDP - (Can''t quote, am on Internet explorer, urgh)

No individual should be made accountable, if anyone feels the need to somehow apportion blame, it should be shouldered by the club as a whole, the management, the players and the board, maybe even the fans.

Is there someone you have in mind who should shoulder the majority of the blame?

[Jim Smith 2,317]

[quote user="morty"]Jim, you have absolutely no way of knowing if Alex Neil would have achieved more points that Adams in those early season games, and no way of knowing what Adams would have achieved had he remained in charge.

Yes, you can make a best guess based on stats, but it is no more than that.[/quote]

Fair enough but I would submit that the evidence is pretty persuasive given they have both managed for a similar number of games, with the same squad of players (save for Dorrans and Andreu) and against the same opponants. Its not like I am comparing different seasons or even different playing squads.

[westcoastcanary 0]

I blame the board for appointing Alex Neil. When Adams resigned we were

in 7th place, only 3 points below the team in 6th and just 11 points off

1st place and 10 off 2nd. We had a perfectly good platform for

finishing the season in

the top two (especially given we have the best squad in the league). That we haven''t got automatic is entirely down to our performances since

Alex Neil took over. What a clueless appointment; very inexperienced and such experience as he had only in the wasteland that is Scottish football. Get rid and let''s appoint ....... somebody.

[morty 0]

I agree with what you are saying in principal Jim, but it isn''t anything conclusive that would stand up in a court of law. We have had the debate too many times now, I would venture that Adams had the much harder task of picking the players up after relegation, and really they were only getting into their stride when Alex took over.

[morty 0]

I would also add (oh for an edit button) that both Neil Adams and Alex Neil have contributed to what has been a great season, and could turn out to be a fantastic one. I see no need to finger point at anyone.

[westcoastcanary 0]

[B]  My sentiments exactly Morty. Great season in a super-competitive league, filled with drama, a lot of good football and plenty to feel good about.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

[quote user="morty"]I would also add (oh for an edit button) that both Neil Adams and Alex Neil have contributed to what has been a great season, and could turn out to be a fantastic one. I see no need to finger point at anyone.[/quote]

I''ve already said in another post Morty that I don;t see that it really achieves anything to play the blame game if we don''t go up or at least to dwell on who is to blame. We have a good manager now, should retain the bulk of our squad and be able to have a good crack at the league again next season so its best not to dwell on it.

However, I was asked in this thread who i would blame so i answered. Partly the players but mainly the board for appointing Adams. There was also a post above which appeared to be having a dig at fans who opposed Adams appointment or who thought it was right for him to go when he did and it was really in response to that I posted those stats. Not conclusive proof as you say but in my view as close as you will get (other than if (or hopefully when) we go up) to proving that both Adams leaving bringing Neil in were good decisions.

i don;t think it does any harm for us to have the discussion amongst ourselves. Does not mean i will be unfurling "you''ve let us down again" banners at Carrow Road should we lose in the playoff semis.

[Woodman 92]

Take a look at how Fulham and Cardiff have done this season and put yourselves in one of their fans shoes.  Up until 2 weeks ago, Fulham were staring at League One.  Next season will be a lot harder with 5 of the current top 8 plus the 3 that come down.  Equally Forest, Leeds, Fulham, Cardiff, Blackburn and probably Bristol City will be strong sides.

[lappinitup 629]

[quote user="Hector Prune "]The tide is turning against McNally he has been dreadfully exposed for the fool that he is this season.

The sooner he and the Stowmarket 2 go and we can get a professional set up at the club the better.[/quote]Waveney, your posts are getting more and more like a whiff of bin.Next time you change your name, how about calling yourself Marcus Evans or something similar?

[nutty nigel 7,527]

There is absolutely no way anyone can claim that Neil would have picked up more points before January. Its a total unknown. He may have done worse.

As for that playoff banner Jim, this negativity and blame fest before a balls been kicked in the playoff is much more harmful than unfurling a banner if we have been knocked out.

[morty 0]

Nothing wrong with the debate at all Jim, but I have to say the tone of your post sounds like you are preparing yourself for playoff failure already.

[nutty nigel 7,527]

Oh and Jim, how does it feel to be a fiver up on the deal? Good job you weren''t setting the prices! And just remember having one less thing to moan about doesn''t mean you have to find something else. Try spreading a little McNally love.......

;)

[Jim Smith 2,317]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]There is absolutely no way anyone can claim that Neil would have picked up more points before January. Its a total unknown. He may have done worse.

As for that playoff banner Jim, this negativity and blame fest before a balls been kicked in the playoff is much more harmful than unfurling a banner if we have been knocked out.[/quote]

How am I being negative Nutty? I''m saying we have a good manager and the best team in the division. I feel we have a great chance of winning the playoffs albeit they are more of a lottery than a 46 game season. I will be at the playoff games backing the team 100%.

As to the other debate lets just leave it but I think its perfectly plausible to claim that a manager who has averaged 2.2 points a game over 21 games would have averaged better than 1.5 points a game over the previous 24 games against the same teams and with the same players. Can''t be proven obviously but I think its the view of most fans that Alex Neil is a better manager than Neil Adams and we probably would have got automatic promotion had he been in charge for even a few more games than he''s had.

I appreciate that you cannot bring yourself to criticise the board ever but I think you are very much in the minority if you still think that appointing Adams was a good decision.

[chicken 0]

[quote user="Derby Canary"]If we do not go up via the playoffs you have to say by:Giving Martin to Derby to score goals[/quote]Two seasons ago now - when we were in the premier league, and when he needed more game time to forfill his potential. Whilst I agree to an extent, I don''t think it''s a direct influence on this season, especially considering [quote user="Derby Canary"]Loaning Bassong to Watford[/quote]As I have posted elsewhere, Bassongs 11 appearances at Watford represent a period where they gained on average, less points than they did for the rest of the season. Well bellow the much idealised 2pts per game which they surpassed without him. I''m not saying this is down to his presence, but it does suggest that he didn''t give them anything extra.[quote user="Derby Canary"] + selling Ayala to Middlesbrough to prevent goals[/quote]I liked Ayala whilst he was here, but was he enough for us at that time? A mistake to get rid of him? Only in hindsight after relegation.[quote user="Derby Canary"] Giving Surman to Bournemouth to create goals[/quote]It was much publicised at the time that Adam''s and the club wanted to keep him, hence offering him a new contract. However, he had a year left and by all accounts wanted a move to Bournemouth so we didn''t ''give'' him, we sold him. And as I have said before, players hold the power in those situations.[quote user="Derby Canary"] Signing Grabban from Bournemouth instead of his replacement Wilson[/quote]I believe we tried to sign both. Wilson chose Bournemouth over us. What if he had done that AND we didn''t sign Grabban?So largely, as stated a great many times on other threads - as a club, as a team, as players, managers, board members, share holders and fans, we have not finished in the top two because over the course of this season we haven''t been good enough to do so. You could blame it on October, or you could blame it on Wigan and Rotherham. Or if you are like me, you could look at the games against Middlesborough and realise that you have to win games like that if you want to take the league and we haven''t.

[......and Smith must score. 1,341]

[quote user="morty"]I agree with what you are saying in principal Jim, but it isn''t anything conclusive that would stand up in a court of law. We have had the debate too many times now, I would venture that Adams had the much harder task of picking the players up after relegation, and really they were only getting into their stride when Alex took over.[/quote]Tend to agree with the first point Morty but Adams had lost the plot after a very good start to the season and the players knew it too. Why else would he have thrown the towel in ?It''s all '' ifs '', '' buts '', and '' maybes '' as to the question as to whether we''d have done better under AN from day one but I can''t believe he would have been anywhere near our radar as we looked for a post-Hughton appointment.

[morty 0]

Hmm, I think perhaps "lost the plot" is maybe a bit strong, and whether he threw the towel in or not is a whole other debate.

Like you say though, all ifs and buts.

[nutty nigel 7,527]

Well now Jim, if I felt the board deserved criticism I''d do so. But I''m not so arrogant as to continually believe I know better than they do. If you believe Alex Neil could have done better than Adams then you''re right on two counts I.e. it can''t be proved but the results suggest he may have done. But that doesn''t mean anybody may have done. If you consider the two fans favourites at the time, Mackay and Lennon, what they''ve done since doesn''t fill me with confidence that they''d have bettered Adams or Neil. So unless you can show me where you suggested Alex Neil in the summer I suggest the board knew better than you all season long. Just as McNally was a lot fairer with his £25 ticket compared to your £30 suggestion. So there''s two reasons for you to be grateful to the board and accept that in both instances they knew better than you.

[westcoastcanary 0]

Has Alex Neil said somewhere that he would have taken the job last summer? I''ve never heard or read anything of the sort. Jim and others seem to assume that he would have come if he had been approached. As far as I can see it''s an assumption based solely on the fact that he accepted the job in January. But how AN would have viewed it in the summer and how he viewed it in January are different questions and there would have been different factors at play in the summer compared to January. Speculating about how many points better off we would have been with AN in charge is fruitless enough without basing the whole bit if guesswork on an equally speculative premise.

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

[quote user="westcoastcanary"]Has Alex Neil said somewhere that he would have taken the job last summer? I''ve never heard or read anything of the sort. Jim and others seem to assume that he would have come if he had been approached. As far as I can see it''s an assumption based solely on the fact that he accepted the job in January. But how AN would have viewed it in the summer and how he viewed it in January are different questions and there would have been different factors at play in the summer compared to January. Speculating about how many points better off we would have been with AN in charge is fruitless enough without basing the whole bit if guesswork on an equally speculative premise.[/quote]Me neither, westcoast. And the fact that we had a scout at every Hamilton game this season suggests very strongly that although Neil was on our radar in the summer we needed to wait to see how he would get on in the Scottish top flight before making a move. Speculating on how Neil might have done is a red herring. It seems clear we decided he was then too untried to be risked.The question posters who say appointing Adams was a mistake have to answer is who exactly they would have chosen in the summer, from a list of believable candidates. Apart from Highland, with his championing of Lennon, no-one ever comes up with a couple of names. And this thread is no different. I have a lot of respect for Jim Smith, who almost certainly knows more about football than I do, but I did smile at the:"I don''t want to get into another "who else would you have appointed" debate here."Why not, if there were such obvious choices out there? Because, I suggest, a look at the managers chosen by other Championship clubs in the summer and early autumn is a pretty sobering experience. Russell Slade, anyone? Stuart Pearce? Malky Mackay, Billy McKinlay? Watford got lucky just the fourth time around...

[Making Plans 936]

[quote user="chicken"]You could blame it on October, or you could blame it on Wigan and Rotherham. Or if you are like me, you could look at the games against Middlesborough and realise that you have to win games like that if you want to take the league and we haven''t.[/quote]You could point the finger at McNally and Adams but that would be harsh without including the players. And as for the month that has got us to where we are, for me it would have to be November, a month of complete madness.Coming off the back of a 4-0 drubbing at Boro, we needed a result against Forest who, at the time, were on a bad run.We were playing well and 1-0 up with only 5 muntes to go.But because of a gung-ho attitude by both the Manager & the players, we managed to lose the game 2-1.That set the tone for Brighton at home, 1-0 up but only  managed to scrape a draw 3-3 against a team with the 4th worst goals for total in the league.Then a week later we end up losing 1-2 to Reading after being 1-0 up.A total of 8 points litterally chucked away from winning positions in 3 consecutive games, two of which were at home. So in November we played 4 games, conceeded 11 goals, scored 5 and got 1 lousy point out of 12.Still, in January most of us would have settled for a play off place and in all honesty, we shouldn''t be scared of any of the potential opponents.We have shown that we are more than capable or winning 3 games on the trot & I for one expect us to do it whoever we end up playing.If ever there was a time to "keep the faith", that time is now.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

Purple. I have said many times my choice would have been Lennon. I also believe he would have done considerably better than Adams.

[hogesar 9,657]

I don''t think Lennon''s done anything at Bolton to suggest he''d have done any better than Adams.

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

[quote user="Jim Smith"]Purple. I have said many times my choice would have been Lennon. I also believe he would have done considerably better than Adams.[/quote]Jim, apologies. Looking back to a thread on this subject in January you certainly said there your choice would have been Lennon.

[93vintage 16]

After the disaster of relegation we should have tried to get the Cook to leave instead of sticking with Adams.

[westcoastcanary 0]

[quote user="93vintage"]After the disaster of relegation we should have tried to get the Cook to leave instead of sticking with Adams.[/quote]Disaster? What disaster? The club is in the best health ever and you talk about disaster! On this tasting 93vintage is a pretty raw wine.