Brum v Boro

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

[quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]two of those three would have to have a serious falling-off in form. [/quote]Depends what you call a serious falling off in form. It only takes them to lose twice while we win twice and we''ve caught them.I certainly wouldn''t call losing twice a serious falling off in form[/quote]Yes, we might pull up close, but then what?The overall picture is that we are gaining 1.70 points per game. If we improve to 2 ppg, which is better than any team in the division has done this season, we will finish on 83 points.To finish ahead of us on 84 points, Middlesbrough, currently on 1.93 ppg, need only get 1.6 ppg from now on; Bournemouth and Derby, on 1.9 ppg, need only rack up 1.66 ppg.To put it another way, those three teams need only win seven of their remaining 15 games, plus a few draws, to finish above 83 points. And it only needs two of them to do that. And that is assuming we get to 83 anyway, which effectively requires us to win 9, draw 3 and only lose 3. And it is also assuming Ipswich and Watford don''t gatecrash the top two.We are playing well, with a strengthened squad, and could finish with as high a total as 83, and make it very close, but the chances of two of those top three falling away like that are slim. One might, but it is hard to imagine two doing so.

[daz 70]

[quote user="RUDOLPH HUCKER"]Out of the Cup and held at Brum with a one game ban for their goalie.

Boro might be feeling it come their early kick off against local rivals Dirty Leeds who have a bit of form and might just give them a black eye!![/quote]

leeds & boro are ''local rivals'' ? really ?? :D

[havemyhowsonit 0]

[quote user="RUDOLPH HUCKER"]Out of the Cup and held at Brum with a one game ban for their goalie.

Boro might be feeling it come their early kick off against local rivals Dirty Leeds who have a bit of form and might just give them a black eye!![/quote]

Am I right in thinking a straight red card is 3 games out?

Then again. You think Leeds is local to Middlesbrough lol.

[morty 0]

I have a boro supporting mate, and there is massive rivalry between them and (dirty) Leeds.

[kirsty 0]

Boro to Leeds is the same distance as Norwich to Cambridge.

[lincoln canary (& Golden Coppel) 0]

[quote user="morty"]I have a boro supporting mate, and there is massive rivalry between them and (dirty) Leeds.[/quote]

Thanks for clearing that up, who would have known Leeds

And Boro are rivals.

Good job you''ve got freinds, eh?

[lincoln canary (& Golden Coppel) 0]

[quote user="kirsty"]Boro to Leeds is the same distance as Norwich to Cambridge.[/quote]

And?

[morty 0]

C0ck.

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]two of those three would have to have a serious falling-off in form. [/quote]Depends what you call a serious falling off in form. It only takes them to lose twice while we win twice and we''ve caught them.I certainly wouldn''t call losing twice a serious falling off in form[/quote]Yes, we might pull up close, but then what?The overall picture is that we are gaining 1.70 points per game. If we improve to 2 ppg, which is better than any team in the division has done this season, we will finish on 83 points.To finish ahead of us on 84 points, Middlesbrough, currently on 1.93 ppg, need only get 1.6 ppg from now on; Bournemouth and Derby, on 1.9 ppg, need only rack up 1.66 ppg.To put it another way, those three teams need only win seven of their remaining 15 games, plus a few draws, to finish above 83 points. And it only needs two of them to do that. And that is assuming we get to 83 anyway, which effectively requires us to win 9, draw 3 and only lose 3. And it is also assuming Ipswich and Watford don''t gatecrash the top two.We are playing well, with a strengthened squad, and could finish with as high a total as 83, and make it very close, but the chances of two of those top three falling away like that are slim. One might, but it is hard to imagine two doing so.[/quote]That''s all very true Purple. However, I''m not interested in PPG for the season. I''m only interested in PPG for the rest of the season from now. We just need to go on a run, and it''s not impossible. We even have a recent precedent. Take look at Reading in the 2011/12 season.After 30 games (one less than we''re currently at), Reading were sitting in 6th place on 48 points. They then proceesed to go on a run where they collected 38 points in the next 16 games. During this run, their PPG was 2.375. They were promoted 2 games before the end of the season, and ended up winning the league on 89 points.Our PPG since Alex Neiltook over is 2.285. Continue that, we''ll finish on 87. This would be enough for promotion regardless of what the other teams do.I''m not in any way saying that a Reading type run is probable, but it has happened before. I know we have a tough run coming, and the above run by Reading only had 2 losses in it (When you look back at it, it was amazing). But that''s sometimes what happens in this league. It just takes one team to get a run at this time of the year. If anyone in the top 7 makes that run, they will be promoted.It''d be awesome if it was Norwich City.

[ricardo 7,385]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]two of those three would have to have a serious falling-off in form. [/quote]Depends what you call a serious falling off in form. It only takes them to lose twice while we win twice and we''ve caught them.I certainly wouldn''t call losing twice a serious falling off in form[/quote]Yes, we might pull up close, but then what?The overall picture is that we are gaining 1.70 points per game. If we improve to 2 ppg, which is better than any team in the division has done this season, we will finish on 83 points.To finish ahead of us on 84 points, Middlesbrough, currently on 1.93 ppg, need only get 1.6 ppg from now on; Bournemouth and Derby, on 1.9 ppg, need only rack up 1.66 ppg.To put it another way, those three teams need only win seven of their remaining 15 games, plus a few draws, to finish above 83 points. And it only needs two of them to do that. And that is assuming we get to 83 anyway, which effectively requires us to win 9, draw 3 and only lose 3. And it is also assuming Ipswich and Watford don''t gatecrash the top two.We are playing well, with a strengthened squad, and could finish with as high a total as 83, and make it very close, but the chances of two of those top three falling away like that are slim. One might, but it is hard to imagine two doing so.[/quote]I don''t think 83 points will be enough Purple. When we did this exercise earlier in the season I recall saying that 85/86 points would be enough for promotion and that still looks to be the likely ballpark figure. No single team is running away with it so we are probably looking at the champions not getting to 90 points.For City to feature in the top two it is going to take 10 wins from the last 15 games. I think something like 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats is a minimum target. It is also essential that when we play the other contenders we beat them and not draw.It''s not going to be easy but it is by no means impossible.

[Making Plans 936]

No matter how you look at it, with 15 games to go, and 45 points to play for, a gap of 6 or 7 points at this moment in time is virtually nothing. Handy but not conclusive.In fact, a 6 or 7 point advantage can, and often does, dissapear in the space of 2 or 3 games.In fact on this weeks games alone we''ve seen a swing in our favour of 2 points versus each of the top 3 and that came from games that the form book indicated that Derby, Boro & Bournemouth should have won.Look at it the other way round - if we were top would you be confident that (a) you were going to maintain your form and (b) somebody else was not going to do better than you.

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="Making Plans"]No matter how you look at it, with 15 games to go, and 45 points to play for, a gap of 6 or 7 points at this moment in time is virtually nothing. Handy but not conclusive.In fact, a 6 or 7 point advantage can, and often does, dissapear in the space of 2 or 3 games.In fact on this weeks games alone we''ve seen a swing in our favour of 2 points versus each of the top 3 and that came from games that the form book indicated that Derby, Boro & Bournemouth should have won.Look at it the other way round - if we were top would you be confident that (a) you were going to maintain your form and (b) somebody else was not going to do better than you.[/quote]

In our position we are there poised to make a challenge in the last few weeks of the season and as you infer, we may be better at this stage where we are, than in the first or second slot.   The only way being top is an advantage at this stage is if you can create a gap between you and the rest and no team has done that.  It is simply a case for the last fifteen games of who in the top seven puts the best run together.  We are looking as good as any of the others to put that run together.

[mrs miggins 0]

Bournemouth have got some hard games coming up so i expect them to drop some points. However, we''ve got the hardest games coming up in the next few weeks. We'''' all be very depressed if we lose and the teams above us win.

[Mr Jenkins 0]

Agree with Lakey. Purple has undertaken a fair analysis which I have to agree with, however, we could certainly go on a golden run and end up in the high eighties points wise which could well be enough.

Exciting isnt it. It could all look very different in three or four games time.

[Mr Jenkins 0]

mrs miggins wrote the following post at 19/02/2015 11:03 AM:

Bournemouth have got some hard games coming up so i expect them to drop some points. However, we''ve got the hardest games coming up in the next few weeks. We'''' all be very depressed if we lose and the teams above us win.

Boro have a tough March. Derby, Scum and Bournmouth. Good innit

[mrs miggins 0]

oh that is good. Things are spicing up. Just need to concentrate on ourselves then I guess as the teams above us will be dropping points. If we beat Watford it will be a hell of a big step.

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]two of those three would have to have a serious falling-off in form. [/quote]Depends what you call a serious falling off in form. It only takes them to lose twice while we win twice and we''ve caught them.I certainly wouldn''t call losing twice a serious falling off in form[/quote]Yes, we might pull up close, but then what?The overall picture is that we are gaining 1.70 points per game. If we improve to 2 ppg, which is better than any team in the division has done this season, we will finish on 83 points.To finish ahead of us on 84 points, Middlesbrough, currently on 1.93 ppg, need only get 1.6 ppg from now on; Bournemouth and Derby, on 1.9 ppg, need only rack up 1.66 ppg.To put it another way, those three teams need only win seven of their remaining 15 games, plus a few draws, to finish above 83 points. And it only needs two of them to do that. And that is assuming we get to 83 anyway, which effectively requires us to win 9, draw 3 and only lose 3. And it is also assuming Ipswich and Watford don''t gatecrash the top two.We are playing well, with a strengthened squad, and could finish with as high a total as 83, and make it very close, but the chances of two of those top three falling away like that are slim. One might, but it is hard to imagine two doing so.[/quote]I don''t think 83 points will be enough Purple. When we did this exercise earlier in the season I recall saying that 85/86 points would be enough for promotion and that still looks to be the likely ballpark figure. No single team is running away with it so we are probably looking at the champions not getting to 90 points.For City to feature in the top two it is going to take 10 wins from the last 15 games. I think something like 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats is a minimum target. It is also essential that when we play the other contenders we beat them and not draw.It''s not going to be easy but it is by no means impossible. [/quote]Quite, ricardo. I would be very surprised if 83 was enough. I just do not see two of those top three falling away in that fashion. There was a sense from one or two posters that all that was needed was for us to be do well, in isolation. That is not the case. We have to do very well but also rely on others starting to do badly.If we were to reach your figure of 85/86, or the 87 posited by The Ghost, then the argument changes. But that would require 10 ir even 11 wins from 15. Funnily enough, there is sort of a precedent. In that season when we went up by losing at Sheffield Wednesday (which was ther first with three points for a win) we won 11 of our last 15 games, and that included losing the first, at home to QPR, and that last one. We got one draw, and one other defeat.But that was in the days of three up automatically, and all that did was see us squeak up in third. We finished 9 points behind Watford in second.

[Petriix 2,835]

Talking about points per game is a bit misleading because we still have games against the teams above us and they will play each other as well. If we win those four games and the others have a fairly even distribution of results (i.e. two of those teams don''t win against all the others) then all we would have to do is match the top two for the remainder of our games to be fairly close to the top two.As an example, I put all of the current top 6 through the calculator at http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=2&submitform=Next. I simply put everyone to win all their games except where they play each other where I said the home team would win; and I put us to win all our games. This would see us finish level on points with 2nd place. Obviously this is not going to happen but it is an indication of what is possible given the actual fixtures. In reality, if we win those 4 games against the teams above us then we will have effectively made up the current gap to 2nd place, perhaps losing out on goal difference.The top teams are only up there because they have done better than anyone else so far and they are in no way guaranteed to continue their form. However, at the top of the table, there are always teams moving up to replace the ones that drop away - funny that - so we just need to be ready to fill that gap. The top teams this season have not really run away with it, all have had poor form at one point or other and it is likely that one or two of them will fall away. It is a big ask, but if we can continue our recent league form (8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in our last 12) for the rest of the season and make sure we win the crucial games then we will be very close to the top 2.We are on good form, playing good football and seem to have sorted out a few of the problems we were having earlier in the season. I am not predicting that we will finish 2nd, just that it wouldn''t surprise me if we did, or at least push them all the way. I think we''ll probably finish 3rd or 4th on about 82 points, but it would only take a couple of results going for us to turn that into 88 points which could well be enough.

[Norfolkn Good 0]

I think we''ll go above Watford when we beat them

I think we''ll go above Ipswich when we beat them

I think we''ll go above Derby when we beat them

I think we''ll go above Boro when we beat them

I think we''ll draw with Fulham last day of the season and finish second on 87 points

[Making Plans 936]

[quote user="Making Plans"]No matter how you look at it, with 15 games to go, and 45 points to play for, a gap of 6 or 7 points at this moment in time is virtually nothing. Handy but not conclusive.In fact, a 6 or 7 point advantage can, and often does, dissapear in the space of 2 or 3 games.[/quote]And now were only 4 points off second, Boro lose, Bournemouth lose & the Scum lose.Not looking so difficult to make up the Points Per Game now, is it?

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

And, in contrast to the rest MP we are producing solid professional performances as opposed to open games.

Today like last Saturday was simply a competent job done. Neil has got his balance of defence and attack.

As NA discovered, you can''t consistently win gung-ho. We look like a proper unit and we''ve got the best squad.

Finally, the teams who hit the front too soon are feeling the pressure, we are nicely placed.

[ricardo 7,385]

[quote user="ricardo"]It''s not going to be easy but it is by no means impossible. [/quote]

It just got a fraction easier.[Y]14 games to go so plenty of time yet.

[Norfolkn Good 0]

I think we''ll go above Watford when we beat them

I think we''ll go above Ipswich when we beat them

I think we''ll go above Derby when we beat them

I think we''ll go above Boro when we beat them

I think we''ll draw with Fulham last day of the season and finish second on 87 points

One down....

[Making Plans 936]

[quote user="kirsty"]None of the top 3 have seriously faltered so far[/quote]Last 6 matches (overall)

		GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Leeds Utd	6	5	0	1	7	2	+5	15
2	Derby County	6	4	2	0	16	8	+8	14
3	Norwich City	6	4	1	1	13	4	+9	13
4	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	9	5	+4	13
5	Watford	6	4	0	2	14	11	+3	12
6	Nottm Forest	6	3	1	2	16	11	+5	10
7	Reading	6	3	1	2	5	4	+1	10
8	Brentford	6	3	0	3	7	8	-1	9
9	Wolverhampton	6	2	2	2	12	7	+5	8
10	Charlton	6	2	2	2	10	7	+3	8
11	Bournemouth	6	2	2	2	9	8	+1	8
12	Brighton & Hove	6	2	2	2	9	9	0	8
13	Huddersfield	6	2	2	2	7	8	-1	8
14	Blackburn	6	2	2	2	6	7	-1	8
15	Millwall	6	2	2	2	3	4	-1	8
16	Rotherham	6	2	2	2	11	13	-2	8
17	Ipswich Town	6	2	1	3	6	8	-2	7