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Jim Smith

Why we cannot rely on others

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It was only when noticing that Reading played last night that the penny dropped about Watford''s comfortable home win against them on Saturday.

Sure enough, a quick glance at the details showed Clarke made 9 changes to his team, gave 4 players their debuts and Reading did not pick up a single card in that game.

Guess who Reading now play 4 days before the FA Cup semi final - Bournemouth at home.

Not only have we thrown away 6 points against them but it now seems likely they will capitulate against at least 2 of our direct rivals during the run in. All of which just re-enforces the fact that we cannot/must not rely on others dropping points during this run in. We must do this ourselves and i think that pretty much means going unbeaten from hereon with 7 wins from 9. Its a tough ask but I think we can do it, particularly if we can get 2 wins this week. We have no margin for error now and draws are not really any good to us except maybe against Boro if we''ve got our noses in front of them by then.

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So you are convinced we need 23 points in 9 games for an auto promotion? Wouldn''t that set a record for finishing 3rd if we got only 22 more points and ended up in the playoffs?

If anything, as it stands so far, it seems the division is on track to have a lower than normal points total for second place. That''s not based on actual numbers, just how it seems with no runawsy leader(s) this late in the season and only 3 points separating the top 5.

We could lose one and get 24 points.

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Yes I do think that might be what it takes. Would give us 89 points.

Watford, Boro and Bournemouth are all currently on 69, Derby on 68. I think at least a couple of them are capable of taking 19/20 points from their last 9 games when you look at the fixtures they have. Boro possibly have the hardest job to do so but looking at Bournemouth and Derby''s last 6 they could both easily do so if they can pick up a win or two in the next 3 or 4 games.

Whilst there may be no runaway leaders, I think the difference in the championship this season is that the top 7 or 8 teams have been far more efficient at beating the lower half of the table teams and the bottom 3 or 4 have been much weaker so the division as a whole is not as tight as it usually is. often you have up to 12 or 13 teams still capable of getting to the playoffs at this stage but this season its probably 8 and may well soon be less than that. The relegation slots are going to be settled early and probably with 5 or 6 games to go everyone bar the top 7 or so teams will have nothing to play for so i expect the top 7 to keep winning games consistently right to the death this season.

I accept we could lose one and win 8 as well but I stand by the view that I think we will need 88/89 points for automatic this season.

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Even if Reading don''t turn up, (there''s a case some players may be playing for their place in the 11 vs Arsenal) that is only one game.

It''s the classic, we have to look after ourselves and see what happens.

I am 100% confident that if we win every game of the 9 left, we are promoted so in that sense we aren''t reliant on others. In that sense, i''d say promotion is in our hands.

It''s a bit of a fallacy to say we aren''t relying on them though. If the teams above us somehow contrived to lose and draw as much as they could in the remaining 9 games, it makes it a damn sight easier for us to get top 2.

The problem with that is that experience tells us that at least two of the 5 teams will crack on and it''s likely all 5 of us will keep some semblance of form up for the rest of the season as we''re up there for a reason.

Every goal that goes in against our rivals for promotion i''ll be cheering on like it was us scoring, you can be assured of that.

One thing is certain though, if we don''t do our job and win enough of our games that remain then we won''t be promoted. Until we are mathematically promoted, we can''t down tools.

I do feel now though that at worst, we''ll be in the playoffs barring some complete disaster.

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It looks as though the footballing gods are smiling on Bournemouth and the fixture list........

Bournemouth are away at Cardiff tonight.

Which team had two players sent off on Saturday and I assume will be unavailable for selection?

Cardiff.

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Im thinking that 86 might be enough with some of the top clubs dropping points and having to play each other. So that''s another 20 points from 9 games 6 wins and 2 draws which is achievable?

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[quote user="unique"]It looks as though the footballing gods are smiling on Bournemouth and the fixture list........

Bournemouth are away at Cardiff tonight.

Which team had two players sent off on Saturday and I assume will be unavailable for selection?

Cardiff.[/quote]

Huddersfield are without kep players as well, no less than Jack Robinson and Nakhi Wells. Are we lucky?

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[quote user="Jimmy Smith"]

I am 100% confident that if we win every game of the 9 left, we are promoted...One thing is certain though, if we don''t do our job and win enough of our games that remain then we won''t be promoted...[/quote]Have you ever considered going on Mastermind Jimmy?

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[quote user="lappinitup"][quote user="Jimmy Smith"] I am 100% confident that if we win every game of the 9 left, we are promoted...

One thing is certain though, if we don''t do our job and win enough of our games that remain then we won''t be promoted...[/quote]

Have you ever considered going on Mastermind Jimmy?
[/quote]

 

Mrs Fawlty has already used his specialised subject.

Basil: Can''t we get you on Mastermind, Sybil? Next contestant Sybil Fawlty from Torquay, special subject the bleeding obvious.

 

 

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 ''

Huddersfield are without key players as well, no less than Jack Robinson and Nakhi Wells. Are we lucky?''
Injuries are part and parcel of the game, as with the absence of Grabban.For a team to have two players sent off in the same game is nothing short of exceptional.....and Bournemouth are benefiting big time, and no doubt Brentford supporters will feel the most hard done by, amongst the promotion chasing pack.

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I''m not worried about Bournemouth, I think they are home and hosed and I have to say they deserve it. Their run in convinced me of that and now Jim''s comments about Reading convinced me even more.

Our biggest threat to automatic promotion is ourselves, especially ourselves at home. We have spunked away the chance to be top and clear in recent games; this makes me worried about how we would perform in the play-offs which we should walk but which too many of the current group of players will just bottle.

Our next biggest threat is Watford and as I said before the game they effectively got handed three points last Saturday.

When we earned the chance to strike a blow for ourselves we spurned it not once but twice.

Against Wigan a lack of professionalism meant we didn''t turn up and against Derby John Ruddy contrived to throw the ball into his own net. (He doesn''t like balls at that height, I remember he almost scored a similar own goal at home to Reading.)

But tonight is another BIG opportunity and other results could go for us which will be meaningless if we can''t do it for ourselves.

Things can change but it looks like the play offs to me, probably vs Derby.

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9 wins a distinct possibility provided fatigue doesn''t occur which can be overcome with altering the squad seems Wes is the most affected. And two caveats Jerome must remain injury free and Johnson avoids yellows. Play offs a certainty and would only fear Warford as we''ve beaten the twice.

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