Automatic most probable

[Jim Smith 2,314]

I think we have a good chance of the top 2 now if we can beat Derby and Forest at home. That said it must not be forgotten that our iffy spell in the middle of the season has basically given us very little margin for error over the remaining fixtures, especially if the others up the top keep winning as they have been.

March is a big, big month. I think all concerned have 7 or 8 games and several of our rivals play each other whilst after this Saturday we are through what looked like a very tricky run and (Derby aside) have some winnable looking fixtures with 4 of the next 6 at home. This is when we really need to make (or continue) our move because there are not many clashes between the top 6 in the last month or so of the season and the polarised nature of the league this season means that there are going to be quite a few teams with nothing to play for so its quite probably that the top 6 will all continue to win a high proportion of their games.

[Ray 111]

We have Ipswich, Derby and Middlesborough to play, all at home, assuiming we win all three and let''s assume they were our next 3 games and also assume they don''t play each other during the next 3 games and they win their other games then the league would look like this;

Derby 71

Middlesborough 69

Norwich 68

Bournemouth 68

Watford 68

Brentford 67

Ipswich 66

Thereafter Derby have 2 more games against the top 7, Middlesborough 4, B''mth 2, Ipswich 4, Watford 2 and Brentford 2.

Now let''s assume they draw all these top 7 games and they win their others and that they all take place immediately after the next three, so in effect all the games amogst the top 7 are played in the next 7 games.

Then the league would look like this;

NCFC 80

Derby 79

B''mth 76

Watford 76

Brentford 75

Middlesborough 73

Ipswich 70

A lot of assumptions I know but the point being automatic is well within our grasp and even if we lost to Derby, Ipswich or Middlesborough we could still be in the autos.

[TimDim 0]

There still seems to be a failure to grasp the implications of teams having to play each other. It is not about teams having to drop points. It is about the absolute certainty that they will drop pointsDerby v M''boroWolves v DerbyDerby vWatford Derby v BrentfordM''Boro v IpswichB''mouth v M''BoroWatford v M''BoroM''Boro v WolvesIpswich v BrentfordWatford v IpswichIpswich v  BournemouthWolves v IpswichWatford v WolvesWe only have the two games, against Derby and M''Boro. On how we are currently playing I cannot see us not being able to beat them. The focus now is not on other clubs having to drop points. They cannot stop that happening as the above fixtures show. It is about whether we have the drive and determination to consistently grind out results. It is in our hands now.Begin to believe.

[westcoastcanary 0]

[quote user="Jim Smith"]I think we have a good chance of the top 2 now if we can beat Derby and Forest at home. That said it must not be forgotten that our iffy spell in the middle of the season has basically given us very little margin for error over the remaining fixtures, especially if the others up the top keep winning as they have been.

March is a big, big month. I think all concerned have 7 or 8 games and several of our rivals play each other whilst after this Saturday we are through what looked like a very tricky run and (Derby aside) have some winnable looking fixtures with 4 of the next 6 at home. This is when we really need to make (or continue) our move because there are not many clashes between the top 6 in the last month or so of the season and the polarised nature of the league this season means that there are going to be quite a few teams with nothing to play for so its quite probably that the top 6 will all continue to win a high proportion of their games.[/quote]What''s "a good chance" Jim? We have a chance of a top two finish certainly, but a GOOD chance? Looking at OddsChecker, we are only fourth favourites for promotion as such, never mind automatic and we are still below evens money, though only just. On that basis we have a better chance than Ipswich, Watford, Brentford and Wolves, but a less good chance than Derby, Boro or Bournemouth. I''d say that was about right. I think those who say we are now odds on for a top two finish are over-egging it.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="TomMoore"]There still seems to be a failure to grasp the implications of teams having to play each other. It is not about teams having to drop points. It is about the absolute certainty that they will drop pointsDerby v M''boroWolves v DerbyDerby vWatford Derby v BrentfordM''Boro v IpswichB''mouth v M''BoroWatford v M''BoroM''Boro v WolvesIpswich v BrentfordWatford v IpswichIpswich v  BournemouthWolves v IpswichWatford v WolvesWe only have the two games, against Derby and M''Boro. On how we are currently playing I cannot see us not being able to beat them. The focus now is not on other clubs having to drop points. They cannot stop that happening as the above fixtures show. It is about whether we have the drive and determination to consistently grind out results. It is in our hands now.Begin to believe.[/quote]

There is one essential truth that still applies. And that is that to finish in the automatics we have to overtake two of the top three, or possibly one of the top two. I doubt it will matter that one or both of, say, Ipswich and Brentford, will drop points when they play each other. Ditto Watford versus Wolves. And games such as Derby versus Brentford will only help us if Derby don''t win. Ditto Middlesbrough versus Wolves.The question is not whether Ipswich, just above us or those teams below us, drop points. But whether Derby, Middlesbrough and - possibly to a lesser extent - Bournemouth - do. Of that list of 13 games only two are bound to be relevant to our chances - Middlesbrough''s encounters with Derby and Bournemouth.

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="TomMoore"]There still seems to be a failure to grasp the implications of teams having to play each other. It is not about teams having to drop points. It is about the absolute certainty that they will drop pointsDerby v M''boroWolves v DerbyDerby vWatford Derby v BrentfordM''Boro v IpswichB''mouth v M''BoroWatford v M''BoroM''Boro v WolvesIpswich v BrentfordWatford v IpswichIpswich v  BournemouthWolves v IpswichWatford v WolvesWe only have the two games, against Derby and M''Boro. On how we are currently playing I cannot see us not being able to beat them. The focus now is not on other clubs having to drop points. They cannot stop that happening as the above fixtures show. It is about whether we have the drive and determination to consistently grind out results. It is in our hands now.Begin to believe.[/quote]

I don''t think that there is anyone that doesn''t believe we can do it and that the other teams will drop points - because they have to. As last night proved, every win is going to have to be battled for and three points against anyone is going to be hard won.   That applies to everyone of course, but the truth is that the teams that put the best runs together against whatever competition are going to get the top two positions.    We are right in there.  The battle is there to be won - but that has been the case all season.  Win your matches and the rest takes care of itself.  The belief is there. We just have to go out and do it.

[Petriix 2,834]

[quote user="westcoastcanary"]In other words, the current top two have quite a cushion. They can afford to drop points against others in this group, including ourselves, and still finish ahead of us. [/quote]This is simply not true when you account for the actual fixtures involved. If we beat Ipswich, Derby and Middlesbrough (all at home) and all other fixtures between top 6 clubs are won by the home team and we match the other teams for the remaining games then it would come down to goal difference between us and Bournemouth for 2nd place; if Derby lose just one game more than that then they would be level too. This is highly unlikely to happen, but it shows that the remaining fixtures provide us with the perfect opportunity to close the gap without relying on other teams to drop unexpected points.Our chances of making the top two depend heavily on us winning those three crucial home matches against the teams above us. If we do that then I think we will be very close and it might take two out of Derby, Middlesbrough and Bournemouth winning some tough away games against the top teams to prevent that. Catching Derby would require them to slip up, but we only need to aim for second place.Over the last 6 games we have gained 2, 3, 6 and 8 points on Derby, Middlesbrough, Ipswich and Bournemouth respectively. If we all maintain that then we would comfortably finish 2nd. Based on a combination of  our recent and season long form (not taking the actual fixtures into account) I project us to finish 3rd on about 86pts.It is obviously very hard to predict what will actually happen other than to say there will be some surprises along the way. However, I think it is wrong to say that it is the current top two''s to lose.

[Maccys Back 0]

WERE GOING TO GET 2ND BEHIND DERBY imho

[westcoastcanary 0]

[quote user="TomMoore"]There still seems to be a failure to grasp the implications of teams having to play each other. It is not about teams having to drop points. It is about the absolute certainty that they will drop pointsDerby v M''boroWolves v DerbyDerby vWatford Derby v BrentfordM''Boro v IpswichB''mouth v M''BoroWatford v M''BoroM''Boro v WolvesIpswich v BrentfordWatford v IpswichIpswich v  BournemouthWolves v IpswichWatford v WolvesWe only have the two games, against Derby and M''Boro. On how we are currently playing I cannot see us not being able to beat them. The focus now is not on other clubs having to drop points. They cannot stop that happening as the above fixtures show. It is about whether we have the drive and determination to consistently grind out results. It is in our hands now.Begin to believe.[/quote]OK, let''s say Derby and Boro LOSE all five of those crunch games (including against us). They still have 24 points available to them which would take them to 89 and 87 respectively. To match that we have to garner at least 28 points from our remaining matches, averaging over 2 points per game. That''s 9 wins and a draw out of 13 games. Yes, we are capable of that, but if Derby and Boro DON''T lose ALL those crunch games, we have to garner correspondingly more points. Rather than us failing to grasp the implications of teams having to play each other, I''d say you are over-estimating them.

[TimDim 0]

The flaw in your reasoning is the presumption that the ''24 points

available to them'' are not as you state available to them, but are

actually automatically their''s. They are not.If you are only

going to focus on Derby and M''Boro then the reality is that they have to

play each other. Work out the affect each result will have upon them

and us, then factor in us beating them. Either way, both can''t

mathematically remain above us if all other things are equal.Time to believe.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

[quote user="TomMoore"]The flaw in your reasoning is the presumption that the ''24 points

available to them'' are not as you state available to them, but are

actually automatically their''s. They are not.If you are only

going to focus on Derby and M''Boro then the reality is that they have to

play each other. Work out the affect each result will have upon them

and us, then factor in us beating them. Either way, both can''t

mathematically remain above us if all other things are equal.Time to believe.[/quote]The flaw in your argument is that you are assuming we will beat Derby and Middlesbrough. The fact is that the Derby vs Middlesbrough game will end with either Derby on 66 points and Middlesbrough on 64, or Derby on 68 and Middlesbrough on 63, or Derby on 65 and Middlesbrough on 66.If you regard our next game as the one we then have in hand, and we win that, we go on to 62 points. So in every scenario from that Derby/Middlesbrough clash we will still be below both those teams, having played the same number of games. And that is without factoring in Bournemouth.

[Budapest Canary 152]

I made my ,maths. If we win all our remaining fixtures, we cannot finish below 4th, but mathematically Darby, Boro and B''mouth all can still finish above us - at least on GD. (It''s a promotion mini league thing), The good news is that even in that hypothetical case when every team above us wins everything but the games each other, we''d be very near to even-steven, and Forest vs. B''mouth''s tonight can improve our odds.

[TimDim 0]

Purplecanary there is not a flaw. I have said all along that I believe

we will beat both Derby and M''Boro, for the reasons I have given. I have not

said that we will beat them as a certainty, then base my case on that being a certainty. There is no assuming on my part, merely your wish again to spin my words.I cannot see the relevance of your point about how things will be after the Derby/Middlesbrough clash, as that selectively omits that we have to play them both. The season is about all the games played.  You have also yet again selectively ignored the point about how well we are now playing and, I suggest,will continue to play better. That change in our playing has been the key point in my argument. What is said about the fixtures is to highlight the flaws in the claims that we cannot catch the others no matter how well we play. Time to believe.

[BigFish 1,986]

If we win all our games that gives us 104 points and we are champions by a mile.

Worry about our results, nothing we can do about the others.

A neutral would say play offs are the most probable outcome.

[ricardo 7,348]

All you need to focus on is that 85/86 points will more than likely be enough.

[Mr Jenkins 0]

Top of the current form table, last 7 games.

[Ray 111]

BigFish,

13 games to go, win them all and we achieve 39 points, which when added to our current total of 59 makes 98, or it did when I went to school, mind you that was a while ago, so maybe 2 plus 2 no longer equals 4??

[Katie Borkins 1]

Possible, yes.

Probable? possibly.

"Most probable"? No.

[city4eva 207]

[quote user="Bor Bor Bor"]Possible, yes.

Probable? possibly.

"Most probable"? No.[/quote]

Booooodont tell Tom

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

Still possible rather than probable but much more possible than 2 weeks ago

[Tumbleweed 106]

Possible yes, and getting more so, but our slump means we will probably be playing catch up right to the death. I''d like to think we will win all those home games against Derby, Boro and Ipswich, but I think its just too close to call on the Boro and Derby games. Boro are a tough unit to crack, have a powerful defence and midfield and a couple of sparky forwards. They are more than capable of soaking up pressure and nicking the game.

My optimism is based on the fact that we have come into form at the right time and have some strength in depth to cover. But if BJ and Tettey both pick up yellows, I''d really worry while they were out.

So I''m still optimistic but I think this one could go right to the wire for 4 or 5 teams.

[NCFCgardener 0]

Its the games between the top 7/8 clubs between now and the end of the season that are going to make or break us.

Its so tight at the top at the moment, one defeat and results go against us elsewhere and we drop out of the top 6 again.

Just look at Bournemouth, they were looking unstoppable not long ago and a couple of defeats and they are sitting on the same pts as city.

So, while Im feeling positive, there is still a long way to go. 1 game as a time.

Slap the Scum.

[BigFish 1,986]

[quote user="Ray"]BigFish,

13 games to go, win them all and we achieve 39 points, which when added to our current total of 59 makes 98, or it did when I went to school, mind you that was a while ago, so maybe 2 plus 2 no longer equals 4??[/quote]

Not for the first time I have shown myself to be an idiot on this board Ray but I am not alone in that......

[The Phantom 0]

Ricardo has spoken that is good enough for me. I am now looking at how we can get the 9 wins we need to get to that figure

[westcoastcanary 0]

[quote user="NCFCgardener"]Its the games between the top 7/8 clubs between now and the end of the season that are going to make or break us.

Its so tight at the top at the moment, one defeat and results go against us elsewhere and we drop out of the top 6 again.

Just look at Bournemouth, they were looking unstoppable not long ago and a couple of defeats and they are sitting on the same pts as city.

So, while Im feeling positive, there is still a long way to go. 1 game as a time.

Slap the Scum.[/quote]Outside the top 7/8, the New Forest, are unbeaten so far under Dougie F; only Derby and B''mouth among the promotion contenders don''t still have to play them. Then there are traditional banana skins lying in each club''s path, such as, for us, Fulham.

[Ray 111]

Cheers BigFish,

You definitely got that one right, you are most definitely not alone in that!!

[Tetteys Jig 830]

[quote user="westcoastcanary"][quote user="NCFCgardener"]Its the games between the top 7/8 clubs between now and the end of the season that are going to make or break us.

Its so tight at the top at the moment, one defeat and results go against us elsewhere and we drop out of the top 6 again.

Just look at Bournemouth, they were looking unstoppable not long ago and a couple of defeats and they are sitting on the same pts as city.

So, while Im feeling positive, there is still a long way to go. 1 game as a time.

Slap the Scum.[/quote]Outside the top 7/8, the New Forest, are unbeaten so far under Dougie F; only Derby and B''mouth among the promotion contenders don''t still have to play them. Then there are traditional banana skins lying in each club''s path, such as, for us, Fulham. [/quote]

Hopefully it''s all done and dusted by then. We are genuinely cursed against them!

[TimDim 0]

Both posted on the 22nd Feb

"[quote user="morty"]For instance I can''t see Derby or Middlesboro dropping too many points either.[/quote]

[quote user="TomMoore"]Perhaps, after tonight''s result there may be a few more who dare to believe. [/quote]That is not intended as a dig. Merely a post to highlight most fan''s thoughts a week ago. My belief was based on our own purposefulness, and other team''s frailities. The latter has now been seen in two successive Saturdays. It is down to us to continue our drive to the top.We will do it.

[Maccys Back 0]

Agree thoroughly Tom, somehow after the first half of the season we are there or there abouts. 6-7weeks ago it looked gone, yet when we win 3-0 tomorrow we''re in the mix and the "form" team that matters. If we had of had sir Alex from the start then we''d probably be a good 10 points clear at the top at least. Otbc can''t wait to treat the scummers to a thrashing tomorrow and set the rot into them. Be nice to see them 7th and forrest (the other form team) sneaking into the play offs at their expense. Eieieio UP A fu*king. League we go......... back to the promised lands where we should have been for the last few years. hopefully the board learnt this time. also the £ involved from sky and BT could turn us into a well stabilised premiership team for decades to come!!!!!?

[Daz Sparks 1,151]

[quote user="TomMoore"]Both posted on the 22nd Feb

"[quote user="morty"]For instance I can''t see Derby or Middlesboro dropping too many points either.[/quote]

[quote user="TomMoore"]Perhaps, after tonight''s result there may be a few more who dare to believe. [/quote]

That is not intended as a dig. Merely a post to highlight most fan''s thoughts a week ago. My belief was based on our own purposefulness, and other team''s frailities. The latter has now been seen in two successive Saturdays. It is down to us to continue our drive to the top.We will do it.

[/quote]

Still cannot accept that it "most probable". Now, don''t take this as negative, merely my own reasoning, I see it as "more probable" now. We win tomorrow, and it gets even more probable, etc, etc, BUT until we get substantially closer to the finishing line, your reasoning, to me is over optimistic, if fact it seems somewhat expectational, which I find presumptuous.