Automatic most probable

[TimDim 0]

We have to rely upon no one else to slip. On current form against the other clubs season form, we would win the title. On the same current form against the two highest (Derby and M''boro) we would still finish half a point ahead of them to win the title.They both have to visit Carrow Road, and also play each other. That latter is not a slip, it is a certainty that one or both will drop points in that game.Dare to believe.

[ricardo 7,328]

85/86 points will be enough.

Becoming more likely with every victory.

Still need to win 9 of 14

[lake district canary 4,530]

[quote user="TomMoore"]We have to rely upon no one else to slip. On current form against the other clubs season form, we would win the title. On the same current form against the two highest (Derby and M''boro) we would still finish half a point ahead of them to win the title.They both have to visit Carrow Road, and also play each other. That latter is not a slip, it is a certainty that one or both will drop points in that game.Dare to believe.[/quote]

Agree with what you say, but even at my most positive I can''t get to thinking its anything other than "possible" we can get to the automatics. We are playing catch up and anything can happen.  Its seven teams in a race to get top two - any of them can do it. But we are well placed to make a challenge as you say and I believe it is within our capabilities to get to top two, even champions - but the focus can only ever be on the next game.  Its a cliche, but its true.  Things are in our favour, but nothing is probable - and six other teams will have a strong say in what happens by the end of the season.  Dare to believe we will probably be in the top two if you like, but until it happens, if it happens, best not to think too much about it imo!

[Daz Sparks 1,140]

[quote user="Bor Bor Bor"]There is a new and dangerous complacency rearing it''s head.

The idea that "automatic promotion is within our gift."

It is not. The teams in those spots have it within their gift. Us, we have to fight every single game to win and then hope other results go our way.

Let us not set the bar absurdly high because we really want to slate the team, management and owners when we fail to achieve an artificial goal.

If we achieve automatic promotion, it will be an achievement up there with anything Lambert managed.

It will be hard, very hard, to break into the top two. Let nobody be under the impression it is ours for the taking, as this complacent thread threatens to do. And yet if we do it, let''s celebrate it as one hell of an achievement rather than say it merely met our expectations. AN is doing a great job so far, let us not take it for granted.[/quote]

I endorse the above wholeheartedly. AN has done a very good job of steering us back on course, and yesterday results, as well our own went with us. There will be days they don''t, that is what is probable in my mind. However, the possibility of a top 2 place very much exists.

[TimDim 0]

Can you see 5 teams (and more) capable of beating us ?The difference this season is that there is no run away leader, so leaving both the top two places up for grabs. If we haven''t been so decisive in the past few games, and didn''t have such a very strong squad then maybe I wouldn''t be so certain and would dismiss past behaviour (us in ''82) or current form as a bit like looking at the tea leaves. The last two games have been against play off contenders. Free scoring Watford, who did not have a sniff of a goal against us, on their ground. (I believe our goal average will continue to grow as well).There is also the other factor that is overlooked. We are developing, whereas the teams around us have gone as far as they can. Noticable with B''mouth and Ipswich. Which suggests that we will improve even further, more so with Dorrans and Andreu coming in and VOO and O''Neil, both set to be back soon.I would suggest fans on here cast their minds back to the previous two promotion runs under Lambert. We went into games believing that we were going to win. That became like a steam roller. Something that looks to be the case now. Whilst the fixtures past and present, and the table suggest we will make the top two, look at what is happening on the pitch. That is not a suggestion, that is a certaintyDare to believe

[morty 0]

[quote user="TomMoore"]Can you see 5 teams (and more) capable of beating us ?The difference this season is that there is no run away leader, so leaving both the top two places up for grabs. If we haven''t been so decisive in the past few games, and didn''t have such a very strong squad then maybe I wouldn''t be so certain and would dismiss past behaviour (us in ''82) or current form as a bit like looking at the tea leaves. The last two games have been against play off contenders. Free scoring Watford, who did not have a sniff of a goal against us, on their ground. (I believe our goal average will continue to grow as well).There is also the other factor that is overlooked. We are developing, whereas the teams around us have gone as far as they can. Noticable with B''mouth and Ipswich. Which suggests that we will improve even further, more so with Dorrans and Andreu coming in and VOO and O''Neil, both set to be back soon.I would suggest fans on here cast their minds back to the previous two promotion runs under Lambert. We went into games believing that we were going to win. That became like a steam roller. Something that looks to be the case now. Whilst the fixtures past and present, and the table suggest we will make the top two, look at what is happening on the pitch. That is not a suggestion, that is a certaintyDare to believe

[/quote]Whilst I admire your optimism, there are no certainties.For instance I can''t see Derby or Middlesboro dropping too many points either.

[mrs miggins 0]

Therefore the games against them could define how our season will end perhaps?

[morty 0]

[quote user="mrs miggins"]Therefore the games against them could define how our season will end perhaps?[/quote]Indeed.You can talk all you like about our form, but they are two teams in form too, and they hold the auto positions right now.One, or both are very capable of beating us.

[TimDim 0]

It is not optimism It is a belief that we will not only continue to play as well as we did against Wolves, but improve. Maybe you were at Watford (I was not) if so did either team really trouble us ?There are certainties. ''M''Boro have between 14/3 -14/4 Derby, Ipswich, Bournemouth, Wigan, Watford, Rotherham, Wolves. 7 in a month''.One thing certain there is that either they or the other top 8 clubs they play have to drop points. M''boro and Derby play each other which again is a certainty points will be lost.Could you see M''Boro losing at home to Leeds or being held at B''ham. Derby struggling against Sheff Weds and Rotherham conceding 6 goals ? They can fail, but we cannot succeed ?Dare to believe.

[morty 0]

[quote user="TomMoore"]It is not optimism It is a belief that we will not only continue to play as well as we did against Wolves, but improve. Maybe you were at Watford (I was not) if so did either team really trouble us ?There are certainties. ''M''Boro have between 14/3 -14/4 Derby, Ipswich, Bournemouth, Wigan, Watford, Rotherham, Wolves. 7 in a month''.One thing certain there is that either they or the other top 8 clubs they play have to drop points. M''boro and Derby play each other which again is a certainty points will be lost.Could you see M''Boro losing at home to Leeds or being held at B''ham. Derby struggling against Sheff Weds and Rotherham conceding 6 goals ? They can fail, but we cannot succeed ?Dare to believe.[/quote]Yes I was at Watford and Wolves. We played very well.Yes the signs are good, very good in fact. You are talking about other teams stumbling or faltering, but totally dismissing that we could do the same ourselves.I''m optimistic and positive, but is it a nailed on certainty that we will make the top two? Nah.

[nutty nigel 7,506]

[quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]It would still take a continuation of one hell of a run, and lots of slipping up for us to go up automatically. Put it this way, looking back over 6 years, no team that was 6th after on the 30/31 game mark (ie. last week when we were 6th)  has gone up automatically . I''m sure it has happened prior to this, but not often , so it would be ground breaking. Anyone wants to play the game too go to http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship Equally over that 6 year period all of the top four teams on 30/31 game mark  always get in the playoffs. It does take a spectacular fall for them to fall outside the playoffs. My money is still on a play off game between us and the Binners. [/quote]

 

I would have thought a more accurate way to view the stats would be to measure the amount of points between the clubs and the auto spots rather than league position which is totally flawed. Last season after 32 games 5th place was 8 points behind 2nd and 16 points behind top. This season we are 4 points behind 2nd and 6 points behind top. That is a totally different and more achievable task.

 

 

[lappinitup 629]

Let''s compare now with the last time we went up.After 32 games 2010/11.......32 15 10 7 51 41 9 3 4 29 22 6 7 3 22 19 +10...55After 32 games now........32 16 8 8 62 36 8 5 3 38 18 8 3 5 24 18 +26...56So, we have one more point than we did back thenFinal total.......46 23 15 8 83 58 13 6 4 47 30 10 9 4 36 28 +25...84 2010/11 table after 32 games hereFinal 2010/11 table hereWe were six points behind the leaders and one behind Forest who had a game in hand.Although it was tighter then, we still finished four points better than third place.Just look at how Forest fell away and how Reading put a run together to make the play-offs.We have a much stronger squad this time round and we have a very good record against the top teams so I see no reason why we can''t do it.COYY

[Katie Borkins 1]

Automatic is possible, not "most probable". That is all I am trying to say. By portraying it as more likely than it is, we risk underestimating the sie of the achievement if we were to do it.

I would hate this season to be looked back on complacently as "well of course we had the best squad in the division" etc. We sacked a manager, two assistant managers left and the players have had several coaches and "philosophies" to adjust to. It has been a ropey old ride so far.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,219]

Good maths as usual Ricardo, puts it in nice perspective

Parma

[TimDim 0]

Perhaps, after tonight''s result there may be a few more who dare to believe.

[AJ 1,218]

The whole top 8 all won I believe, so everything remains the same. We have to beat those above us to get ahead of them staying with Ipswich at the weekend!

[Herman 9,692]

Not until we are sitting in the top two.

[Mr Jenkins 0]

I hope to see a lot more of this thread Tom Moore

[......and Smith must score. 1,331]

[quote user="TomMoore"]Perhaps, after tonight''s result there may be a few more who dare to believe.

[/quote]

Fair play for your optimism Tom but with everyone at the top winning today proves it''s going to be a lot tougher than some think.

Just be realistic.

[TimDim 0]

It is not optimism but a very realistic look at how we are playing. It will be the others who will have to keep winning to keep up with us, as they did tonight, but cannot do when they are playing each other. Other than us tonight, all the others were playing lower half teams. That will not always be so. Off our remaining 13 games we have to play 6 or the curent bottom 7. ''M''Boro have between 14/3 -14/4 Derby, Ipswich, Bournemouth, Wigan, Watford, Rotherham, Wolves all in 30 days, And guess what ? Three days after they the last one they have to travel to Carrow Road. And a few posts before, someone was telling me he couldn''t see Middlesboro dropping points ! If he is right then 5 of our rivals have to drop points. I have never claimed that it would not be tough. Tonight proved that. Nor have I stated that were we to go up automatically or even take the title that achievement would be somehow dimished, as some silly claim has been made above. I am stating that if you look at how we are now playing. Look at the singular drive that is pushing the squad on then you will see where that is most likely to end.Time to start believing.

[The Ghost of Percy Varco 0]

I''m with you Tom and think we will win the league. This is when our squad will shine through and the nerves kick into the teams who are currently above us.Alex Neil says he expects us to win every game we go into. So do I. Thankfully he doesn''t tell the players just to go out and give their all and hope for the best as after all that''s all us Norwich fans can ever hope for. [:''(]

[nutty nigel 7,506]

Tom and Percy, I don''t think you''re talking about expectations or probabilities, you''re talking about belief. Not all supporters have belief. Those that do don''t leave when we''re losing with 10 mins to go. The ones with belief are the ones who stay and, well, believe! I believe will win the title until we either do or its mathematically impossible to do so. Then I will believe we will get 2nd. If that''s taken away I believe we will win the playoffs and so on....

If we can''t believe how can we expect the players to?

[JF 694]

A few weeks ago I really believed automatic promotion was out of our reach and we would have to do it the hard way via the play offs. Now I believe we will take one of the top 2 places. The impact that Neil has had is astounding really.

[TimDim 0]

I think the reaction from the players at the end of the game tonight tells us much about the spirit of the squad. There has been a far greater sense of belief coming from the players, and even the manager in the past few days. They will know how well they played, and how well they can play. This was a game when we should have faltered, and for much of the game we looked like we were going to. But, as with the previous promotion seasons under Lambert ,we were able to take the three points. The 9 games under AN have given us 22 points which over a season would amount to 112 points ! Four of those games against top 8 teams.Time to start believing.

[Robert Barnes 19]

But we all also have to realize that the teams above us must continue to win.a couple of more wins for us and a combination of loses from them and again it becomes a different story. so very close and exciting a slip from any or all off the teams above could be disaster for them

[Gainer the Gopher 0]

Tom, I''ve seen your argument that was presented in the most clear and coherent way on this thread. The doom and gloomers keep ignoring your points about teams above us playing each other and about having faith in our great recovery not meaning it''s a guarantee.

At least on this thread, a few more people are beginning to get your salient point.

[Gordon Bennett 780]

The other six teams all won at home against teams they should be beating on paper, we had the toughest game and it was away from home so it was an enormous three points.

I''m not one for getting carried away but a small part of me is starting to believe.

[Herman 9,692]

Stop being disingenuous Houston. No posters are being doom and gloom just advising to keep feet firmly planted on the ground.

[kirsty 0]

The longer we remain unbeaten the better. Obviously we don''t want too many draws, but we can only afford maybe 2 or 3 losses.

[westcoastcanary 0]

Here is an illustration of the current situation (with 13 games or 39 points to go)Two assumptions:1. 85 points minimum will be needed this season to secure automatic promotion (see Ian Clarke''s recent Pink Un blog)2. Bournemouth will beat Forest tonight (if they draw they will be level with Ipswich, if they lose level with us and Watford) Teams     Points needed   Can afford to drop       IE. to lose AND drawDerby           20                           19                                6               1Midd''bro      22                            17                               5               2Bournem       23                           16                                5               1Ipswich         25                           14                                4               2                             Norwich       26                            13                               4               1Watford        26                           13                               4                1Brentford      27                            12                              4                0In other words, the current top two have quite a cushion. They can afford to drop points against others in this group, including ourselves, and still finish ahead of us.