Automatic most probable

[TimDim 0]

it''s the title that we now have to focus on.Let me explain. After 0-0 v Brum we were 10 points off automatic spot, with another 7 teams ahead of us. Our goal difference was far lower than 5 of those teams.We are now 4 points below an automatic place, with a vastly better goal difference. The last four games have shown what we can do, without really using the new players either. There is now a determination and almost clinical approach that is getting the job done, and not sitting back and trying to hold on to a lead either. Just remorseless pugging away. Something I suspect many will remember from the promotion winning teams of a few seasons back.Teams that are promoted tend to do just that, and steam roll their way to their target. Can anyone see the other 7 out of the top eight doing that at the moment ? Usually there is one team at least obvious certs for promotion at this stage. There isn''t one at the moment. To me it looks like an open door waiting to be kicked in. I don''t think we will see it this easy and have such a strong squad as this again,. I should imagine the board knows this and are chucking everything possible at promotion. Which might explain why the some of the youths have been put aside again. Let''s look at them again in June when we know where we are then is most likely the thought.As well as Dorrans and Andreu, we have a returning Bassong who looks to be back to his true form, Whittaker who has likewise been a recent revelation, as with Grabban and even Hoolahan. All  being as good as new signings, and we''ve yet to see the best of Odjidja-Ofoe. Topping it is a manager who looks not only capable of firing them up, but as today proved, knowing which way to point them.This is a bit long winded but I have beeen a bit cheesed off with reading so much pessimistic stuff on here that I thought we should hear the other side.Anyone else dare to believe ?

[Buh 0]

Shhhh

Nothing wrong with the sentiment, love it, but one game at a time is working well

But what we can achieve is limitless

[Katie Borkins 1]

There is a new and dangerous complacency rearing it''s head.

The idea that "automatic promotion is within our gift."

It is not. The teams in those spots have it within their gift. Us, we have to fight every single game to win and then hope other results go our way.

Let us not set the bar absurdly high because we really want to slate the team, management and owners when we fail to achieve an artificial goal.

If we achieve automatic promotion, it will be an achievement up there with anything Lambert managed.

It will be hard, very hard, to break into the top two. Let nobody be under the impression it is ours for the taking, as this complacent thread threatens to do. And yet if we do it, let''s celebrate it as one hell of an achievement rather than say it merely met our expectations. AN is doing a great job so far, let us not take it for granted.

[Move Klose 303]

Still need something spectacular to go up automatically. Starting with winning the next two. I dont think we can afford to lose many more and we will have to beat the teams that are above us that we have left to play, Boro, Derby & them from up the road.

Certainly not impossible but will be hard.

1 thing we have in our favour is the fact we have a strong squad. Who else in this division could bring on subs with the quality that we did today Redmond, Dorrans and Hooper.

[TimDim 0]

Thank you for trying to twist my words. There is nothing complacent about recognising what we have achieved recently, and more importantly why. So why not use words that are relevant. Nor have I used the word expectation. The word was dream, far different.Those who want to slate the club will do so irrespective of what we achieve, that is partly why I posted above. I doubt your expectations match those of the club, who I suspect are bursting a gut for automatic if not the title. And given that we still have three of the top six at home I do not think it is beyond us to catch those above us. If we can make up 60% of the points in four games is it so hard to imagine making up the next 40% in 14 games ?Dare to believe, even if it hurts.

[Katie Borkins 1]

"Automatic most probablle.

it''s the title that we now have to focus on."

Did I twist those words, junior?

[Maccys Back 0]

Here''s the form table, if we carry on as we are then WE WILL get the automatic spot, the second one to be precise. If the worst does happen and we finish say third but are playing as we are at the moment then I''d still fancy us.

Buh''s just worried he won''t get as many games for the same amount of cash if we get promoted, or heaven forbid his ticket price may go up

[Maccys Back 0]

Form table http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2014-2015/form-table/full

[morty 0]

Nothings won yet. We''re one loss away from doom and gloom!We got very lucky with other results today, and we are playing very, very well.But theres still a lot of football to be played.

[Katie Borkins 1]

"If the worst happens and we finish third" = outright complacency.

If the worst happens we wil finish about fifteenth,

[ron obvious 1,711]

I''m not sure it isn''t within our gift. We''ve got to play Derby, ''boro & Ipswich. f we win the first two, we''re within 3 points of Derby, one of ''boro.

Now I see those two have got to play each other. I think either a draw or one of them winning (in other words, any result) means automatic would be in our gift.

Is that correct, or am I wrong?

[......and Smith must score. 1,599]

I used to be young and full of optimism once OP but after 50 years of watching City realism set in long ago.

Automatic place = unlikely

Play-Off place = distinctly possible

Let''s get a few more points chalked up this season before we start setting the sat-nav for the Premier League grounds.

[ron obvious 1,711]

... we''re *potentially* within ....

[Ray 111]

I''m optimistic, we have momentum.

In fact I was so optomistic yesterday I looked up the odds of us winning the league, which were 16/1 with a thrid of the odds ew to finish in the top 3.

I lumped on biggish and glad I did, tonight the price has dropped to 6/1.

Happy days to come I''m sure!

[Tetteys Jig 851]

5-4 for promotion now, not far off Bournemouth''s odds. Let''s not get carried away though ;-)

[ron obvious 1,711]

Ah, forgot about Bournemouth.

But they''ve got play ''boro .........

My brain hurts.

[lake district canary 4,830]

14 games to go. Each one a cup final.  One game at a time.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

There''s just under a third of the season to go.

I highlighted today and the next two games as season defining, we will know whether we have a tilt at automatic or are playing for a play-off. I am delighted at the result and performance today and surprised at the other results.

I think Bournemouth are falling back and may well lose at Forest on Wednesday too.

Ipswich have 10 points from the last 8 games.

Watford and Brentford should continue to dabble in and around the top six.

Of the top two, Derby look good as they score goals. Boro score fewer than the other top sides and may pay for that.

Norwich have finally put together some wins and in doing so are in the mix....just! We are still at the stage where we have to win as any other result could see us drop.

Basically, due to a very poor middle third of the season Norwich has to win every game. I believe Alex Neil is using this as his main motivator.

But win on Tuesday and Sunday and we will be one of the top three going for automatic. I think we''d be in third place but may still be the same number of points off second.

[Tetteys Jig 851]

We have boro, derby and pisswitch to come to CR still... Those will be the big games. I think our squad depth will keep us strongly in the mix.

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

Automatic promotion is possible but not probable. As i said some weeks ago we can afford to drop about 14 points and get second spot. We could afford to drop 14 from 18 games now it is only 14 let the run continue. the home games against Ipswich , Derby and Borough will be critical in this especially the latter 2 who look a far better prospect for the top 2 than Ipswich who i still fancy to slip out of the top 6. Our away form will also be critical and in theory at any rate it is fantastic that we do not have to travel to any of the current top 8. All of the top 4 look vulnerable at the moment and we do have class and momentum. I fancy we may sneak an automatic still but despite our good run we are probably still 4th favorites to do so

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,791]

It would still take a continuation of one hell of a run, and lots of slipping up for us to go up automatically. Put it this way, looking back over 6 years, no team that was 6th after on the 30/31 game mark (ie. last week when we were 6th)  has gone up automatically . I''m sure it has happened prior to this, but not often , so it would be ground breaking. Anyone wants to play the game too go to http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship Equally over that 6 year period all of the top four teams on 30/31 game mark  always get in the playoffs. It does take a spectacular fall for them to fall outside the playoffs. My money is still on a play off game between us and the Binners.

[Mello Yello 2,572]

I would as a ''no-brainer'' much prefer automatic promotion......It was a very long and very despondent trek back from the Millennium after the play-off final....Auto also allows you those extra couple of weeks to prepare for the forthcoming season.....

 

 

[Mr Jenkins 0]

It is going to be really tough, after yesterday when most of the results went our way it is easy to get carried away, but this is the first week in some time that there have been such a bad string of results above us.

In recent weeks we have been needing to win just to hang on in there.

[kingsway 101]

If we keep playing how we have in the last few weeks then we''ll be close to automatic I think, but it won''t be a given we''ll be going up automatically!

[TimDim 0]

It is not about getting carried away, but merely reflecting the reality of the situation. We are four points behind, not the ten were were a month ago. We are playing like a winning team, and a very organised and determined one at that.Automatic or even the title require a combination of two things. The others continue to drop points, and we continue to pick up points at the rate we are doing. The first one, for the reasons I''ve previously stated look most likely. It wasn''t simly that we have been winning, but the manner in which we have done so. Which suggests we can beat any one, and that this is not a blip. Look at the strength sitting on the bench. That allows for variation, as of yesterday, and cover with possible injuries and suspensions.As to the others. Well it does look as if they are not as invincible as previously thought. There is also the not small matter of them having to play the others. M''Boro have between 14/3 -14/4 Derby, Ipswich, Bournemouth, Wigan, Watford, Rotherham, Wolves. 7 in a month, and playing all the other top 5. Then us 3 days after ! Is anyone suggesting they wont drop points there, and what points they do pick up will be points taken off the top groupWhat is not being ackowledged is that all clubs have this gruelling month coming up. A  month that will stretch their squads to the maximum. We have a big squad that can cope. Most others do not. When Ipswich travelled to Millwall they had to pick up a 17 year old youth on the way to make up the squad, as they were so short of players.  For our part our super seven games are against the likes of Wigan, Millwall, Bolton, Huddersfield and Brighton.Dare to believe,

[morty 0]

[quote user="TomMoore"]It is not about getting carried away, but merely reflecting the reality of the situation. We are four points behind, not the ten were were a month ago. We are playing like a winning team, and a very organised and determined one at that.Automatic or even the title require a combination of two things. The others continue to drop points, and we continue to pick up points at the rate we are doing. The first one, for the reasons I''ve previously stated look most likely. It wasn''t simly that we have been winning, but the manner in which we have done so. Which suggests we can beat any one, and that this is not a blip. Look at the strength sitting on the bench. That allows for variation, as of yesterday, and cover with possible injuries and suspensions.As to the others. Well it does look as if they are not as invincible as previously thought. There is also the not small matter of them having to play the others. M''Boro have between 14/3 -14/4 Derby, Ipswich, Bournemouth, Wigan, Watford, Rotherham, Wolves. 7 in a month, and playing all the other top 5. Then us 3 days after ! Is anyone suggesting they wont drop points there, and what points they do pick up will be points taken off the top groupWhat is not being ackowledged is that all clubs have this gruelling month coming up. A  month that will stretch their squads to the maximum. We have a big squad that can cope. Most others do not. When Ipswich travelled to Millwall they had to pick up a 17 year old youth on the way to make up the squad, as they were so short of players.  For our part our super seven games are against the likes of Wigan, Millwall, Bolton, Huddersfield and Brighton.Dare to believe,

[/quote]The thing is, form really is only a guide, you can say all day that "X team should beat Y team" or "Team A won''t drop points against B" but the reality is that anything can happen, sides have freak results, including us.Lose away at an in form Blackburn and Ipswich take a point away from Carrow Road next week, and the whole thing has dramatically changed.So I think "possible" is more appropriate than "probable" really.

[Newton 0]

Great post Tom, cant wait for Tuesday

Yes it is possible

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,791]

OK. here is the precedent . 2006-2007 was the last time a team in 6th after 31 games (us last week ) went up automitically. And guess what...It was Sunderland (under you know who) who were actually 7th, and went up as Champions!!! Shoe in.

[Herman 11,136]

"So I think "possible" is more appropriate than "probable" really." morty.Completely agree with this. Our form is very good, but we are having to rely on too many other teams to slip.So play-offs is highly probable. Automatics still possible.

[TimDim 0]

Form is only a guide you say, then project the possibility of losing to

"an in form Blackburn". It is not form on it''s own, as that has many

variables. Playing Millwall andHhuddersfield at home in back to back

fixtures is not any useful guide. But it is what I have stated.

It is how we have played in the last 8 games. Ones in which the in form

Blackburn have only picked up 9 points (relegation form). Whereas we

have picked up 19, more than double that total. And at a rate that were

it to be over the season would give us 109 points. Bit more than

automatic.Also with half being against the top eight clubs. Of course

there are plenty of ifs and buts. But those affect other teams as well.Beat

Blackburn and the binners and on current points averages we could be a

point or so off the top place going into that run of seven games. The

first of which will see Derby at Carrow Road to try and peg us back. And

if the don''t they then have as the next three games M''Boro Wolves and

Watford, with Brentford a week later. Would you bet on them winning all

thos games ?Dare to believe.