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It's Character Forming

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Everything posted by It's Character Forming

  1. That's a really useful post @Well b back (as usual). I had heard the original concerns about Ibuprofen, but not the update that it's ok although paracetomol is preferred.
  2. I hope this is just a joke, but it's pretty embarrassing for the guy who posted it IMO. It's absolutely clear that if you meet up with anyone socially (who you don't live with) that's got to be outside and you have to stay 2m apart. Also I think hairdressers aren't allowed to restart work yet, so why would "escorts" be any different ? I can't imagine many people will actually change what they do based on this sort of twitter post, but right now I really think it's not helpful, next time I need to instruct a QC, I know one name I'll be avoiding !
  3. I see in SKorea they’ve had a spike of new cases with 79 reported, linked to a distribution warehouse. I hope they can quickly get it under control but I think until a vaccine is in place it’s going to be a bumpy road with restrictions reimposed from time to time.
  4. Really interesting. Given the reduced case numbers in the uk the case for challenge trials seems compelling to me. I mean, these are all volunteers. Back in 1982 we sent about 9,000 soldiers and marines to the South Atlantic, many died on both sides, if people are willing to volunteer now to help save lives, why shouldn’t they be allowed to?
  5. Thanks @well be back. Keep up the good work!!
  6. This thread is comedy gold, think I’ll go on YouTube and watch the replay of the Leeds/Norwich game from last season, it was pretty fun when I was there for the real thing. my favourite comment is from a Leeds fan saying “ we don’t want you harping on about it for years”, I mean which club has a forum named after the fact that they still have a grudge from losing the European Cup final in like 1875?
  7. About "Herd Immunity" which people seem to mention in a derogatory way. OK so the preference obviously is for a vaccine which basically lets us get to herd immunity without the actual disease having to go through the population, but as we're told repeatedly, that's not a definite. It may never happen. Without a vaccine, long term it seems to me the only way things will ever get back to normal is via herd immunity. Unless we're willing to live with massive restrictions on movement & social contact indefinitely. Track & trace only works if you're then able to close down areas to prevent further spread, and with no restrictions on contact between people (i.e life back to normal) then Covid will rapidly spread again and overwhelm any T&T system (unless lockdown is brought back - but like I say, I'm talking about the long term). Or am I missing something? One big question is the % infected you need to achieve herd immunity ,where in Sweden they seem to think it's a lot lower than the 60% mentioned from the IC modelling.
  8. Thanks for the update. I'm guessing a lot of the preparation by AZ to be ready to manufacture this vaccine will be transferable if it ends up with another vaccine that is approved. Also there's that Tom Clancy quote about the US government "A billion here and a billion there and soon you're talking about real money....".
  9. Brilliant, yes very happy for you to keep updating anything vaccine related you find there!
  10. A couple of things about Covid, I'd be interested to know whether it's still spreading in areas like South America or Africa, is there any update on thinking that it might be primarily affecting the temperate zones of the world, in which case we could see it go away in the summer and return in the autumn ? Also what's happening in places like China, S Korea, Vietnam, Japan at the moment ? What restrictions do they have in place, how far have they got back to normal ? Latest update from Sweden on how things are going there, how's their non-lockdown approach going and have they been able to tackle the big problem in their care homes ? @Well b back has been great in updating us on the Oxford vaccine progress, & there have been some comments about a vaccine in the US, but it would be great to hear more about other vaccine testing progress and any developments on drugs to treat Covid ? Right... back to work !
  11. LOL it's fair enough and you're one of the posters who's opinion I respect, not saying I always agree, but life would be dull if we did. I do find this thread a useful source of info about Covid, there are sometimes nuggets of info here which aren't covered very well in the mainstream media. And I'd rather not wade through debates with massive posts about HS2 or Brexit to get to them, if I can avoid it I've had to block one or two posters to make this thread still readable (no prizes for guessing....) c'est la vie !
  12. I wish people would stick to debating Brexit, HS2 etc on other threads. There's more than enough to discuss about Coronavirus, it's a once-in-a century health crisis and plenty of Govt failings to berate, but I wish people would tackle all the normal political infighting elsewhere.
  13. Definitely not good news, but this is why vaccine development normally takes a long time - you test at each stage and take time to check the results before moving on to the next stage (each stage costs money). We're not in normal times, probably most of the vaccines in testing won't work. Also as @sonyc has pointed out, there's never been a vaccine developed for a coronavirus. But, I am guessing this is because no-one has really tried before ? E.g. with SARS, it was pretty easily contained in the Far East before too long, and I read somewhere that efforts to find a vaccine were shelved at that point. I'd guess with Covid that we end up with an annual vaccine similar to flu where they have to update it every year and it's not always fully effective but it does stop the disease being so bad.
  14. He could have been there a very long time and that would still be true
  15. Watch that goal he scored at Man City when we beat them on the last day of the season. Sheer class, takes it past some top players and a great finish. Frustrating thing about Howson is that he’s capable of that, but most of the time just disappears from games. Fortunately when we’ve played him at other teams (I think he was in the Boro team when we beat them 1-0 last season) it’s been exactly the same, the odd good touch but mostly anonymous.
  16. Yep. Just rewatched on YouTube in full a week or so back. This is exactly how I saw it. i guess if you support a team that is now at the worst position it’s been in LIVING MEMORY and has failed to win a derby game for an ENTIRE DECADE then you’ll clutch at straws, & the fact that you were still in the game until one of your players stupidly got himself sent off (by handling the ball on the line which is somehow not relevant (it’s a fairly important part of football not to do stupid things that get yourself sent off)) lets you delude yourself you were winning at 0-0. what I love most about beating them in the semi final is that for us it’s just a sideshow on the way to the main event, which was winning at Wembley. Whereas for them it was their biggest match of the decade
  17. So reading the detail, the main vaccine production centre will open in summer 2021, but they’re also putting in £38m to have a rapid production facility ready to go this summer if a vaccine is ready by then. This is all much quicker than usual, but given these unprecedented times I would hope it’s possible to ramp things up much more quickly. It’s a gamble to be getting these facilities ready before we even have the vaccine but a very sensible step.
  18. I agree, but I think there is a middle ground between assuming the recent 150k level has been flat from March and the other extreme where people start hoping 40% of the population have been infected, I think both those extremes are unrealistic. Also I suspect Whitty has been erring on the side of caution on this. What he said was he thought the likely numbers were around 10% in London and 4% for the rest of the country, last time I saw him (Sunday or Monday I think). I'm guessing those are cautious numbers. If we look at the numbers that are reasonably solid and should be consistent, they would be hospital admissions and deaths in hospital (looking at date of death, not date it is reported) - to me, I think those are likely to have tracked the total number of infections fairly consistently over this period (albeit with a lag). And both those show a clear increase, peak, and then a reduction. So if we're looking at 150k active infections recently, the peak was clearly a lot higher and that means total people who've been infected at some point will be considerably higher than you get if you just assume 150k as a flat number over the whole period. Some people seem to want to get to a number that is very high, which is understandable because it means the worst is probably over. Others seem to want to find a very low number, (for reasons I don't understand). I just want the best estimate that we can sensibly derive from the information we have currently. I'm sure we'll have better information in future and I wish they could do an antibody test now, but we can only work with the information that's out there.
  19. The trouble with the known infections number is that it's just the tip of the iceberg. If you test more, you should be seeing more of the iceberg, so a plateau of known infections during April when testing was being ramped up clearly points to the total number of cases dropping, which is consistent with other measures such as hospital admissions and (after a lag) deaths. "Known infections" simply isn't comparable from a time when we were doing under 20,000 tests per day to doing around 100,000 per day. I think your projection would be useful if you'd allowed for a substantial peak around the start of April My 2.1m number came from this website : https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time It's a projection of infection numbers across the UK based on people self-reporting their symptoms via the app. It shows a national peak for the UK at the start of April at approx. 2.1m. A very rough number but it's probably about as meaningful as anything out there.
  20. Also I think it's logical that New York and London are the two cities that have been hit hardest by this once it spread globally. They are the two true international hubs with diverse populations and people coming and going from all corners of the globe, and both are densely populated - obv there are plenty of huge cities around the world but I think NY and London remain unique in this respect.
  21. Also has anyone seen any update on how Covid is affected by the weather ? I've found some discussion on the accuweather site about it being mainly found in temperate bands, which would imply it will drop away over the summer but could return in the autumn. But the stuff I found was from March so now very dated, it would be really interesting to find something more recent. I think the "second spike" risk for Covid is different from historical pandemics because in the past (eg 1918-20) no real steps were taken to contain the outbreak AFAIK so it was just the natural course of the virus spreading through the population. Given the widespread lockdowns have artificially reduced that spread, there must be a risk that loosening them will allow it to spread again. Fortunately, there doesn't seem much sign of that yet but clearly there have been some flare ups in places like Singapore so it will be important not to be complacent. RIght, back to work I'm afraid....
  22. Interesting discussion of epidemic waves here : https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/
  23. As you say it's all guesstimates until the antibody tests are used but I think the peak was much higher than it is now - you've only got to look at hospital admissions now being much lower than they were a month back which implies total infection numbers are now much lower. According to the covid symptom tracker app, the peak was at the start of April when it is showing approx. 2.1m active infections, down to 248k now. That would push up the numbers significantly. Also, anyone seen any update on the debate about when herd immunity would be achieved & the comments from Sweden that they think they're already close to herd immunity in Stockholm ?
  24. Update about the Oxford vaccine , but the headline comment about “all we need is approval to manufacture” seems much too optimistic given it also says it will be mid June earliest before they have evidence as to how effective it is. Basically there are 1,000+ people in the study, half being the control group, so we now wait for some of them to get infected and if the vaccine group are not infected , there you go... it’s just a case of waiting long enough for the results to be statistically significant enough. I assume no vaccine is 100% effective though but thinking about it, even if the vaccine is say 90% effective that would probably be enough to push the R number right down and achieve herd immunity? https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-breakthrough-could-made-22025785
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