Jump to content

Petriix

Members
  • Content Count

    1,460
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    5

Everything posted by Petriix

  1. They seem to have a new system for segregating the fans which takes up less seats than it used to. There were also not many empty seats that I could see anywhere.
  2. Wigan is the biggest game of the season. They have won their last two away games and won at Derby and Leeds earlier in the season; they also got a draw at Ipswich recently. We must put 100% into beating them and in no way become complacent.After Wigan, Millwall will be the biggest game of the season. While their home form has been poor they have caused one or two shocks this season and we will need to be absolutely on our game as we have lost away at Fulham and Reading (who are of a similar standard).After that, Derby will be the biggest game of the season. They are top of the league but we could pass them if we win this and the previous two. Their away form has been slipping recently with only two points from the last 3 but they have some serious quality in their team and could cause us real problems.Etc.
  3. I totally disagree. They seem to have turned their particular brand of anti-football into a dark art and, given their limited ability, they pull it off quite well. It''s such a simple plan that it''s hard to get the execution wrong. With the quality of the opposition they face in this league I can see exactly how it has worked for them. Most teams they play are not as good as us and, thankfully, football prevailed over hoofball; but it was a tough match.
  4. [quote user="Shyster"]Frank ~ "I really think that the top 3 will be close together." lol[/quote] As in only separated by a couple of points as opposed to the top team being 5 or 6 clear; muppet :-)
  5. That''s a very kind response to my analysis, thanks. I''m not suggesting that my stats can accurately pridict the final table, just that they offer a bit of interesting insight. It will be interesting to see how close the projection is. I really think that the top 3 will be close together. I am certain that Forest will finish outside the top 4 and almost certain they will not make the top 6 given the size of the gap at the moment. I also think you are underestimating Derby''s form.
  6. [quote]Really Frank ? So why not have city top ,,, the thread was started with the info that we have an advantage of home games against the top teams . [/quote]Like I said, I used an algorithm which takes data from all our games this season. It seems that our home form has been good against the top teams but worse against mid-table and lower teams. Our away form has been better than anyone else against top and mid-table teams but comparatively poor against bottom teams. So the stats seem to predict that we will potentially struggle against some of the lesser opposition we will face such as Fulham at home or Brighton away.
  7. This got me thinking because I was not sure if home games are necessarily better for us given that our home form (over the course of the season) has been comparatively poor. I did a little bit too much thinking about it and came up with an algorithm that takes into account our results against other teams home and away based upon their current position in the league and uses this to project how we will do in our remaining fixtures (adjusted to account for our current form). I got us finishing on 86 points. I did the same for the other teams above us and got a top four of:Derby 88Watford 87Norwich 86Boro 83Before today I thought it would be one or two points or even goal difference that would decide 2nd place, but I hadn''t expected Derby to slip up. Now it looks like things could be very tight between the top 3. Of course things can change dramatically with only one or two unexpected results and there is no way of guessing whether any team will maintain their current form but it''s fun to play with the numbers.
  8. If we win all our games then the worst we can finish is 2nd (behind either Derby or Watford on goal difference). We''re not relying on anyone to do us any more favours.It''s all getting really bunched up at the top of the table and it looks like Wolves could get themselves into the mix by the end of the season. Forest are also on a run but the gap might just be too much for them. Bournemouth are on a terrible run (no win in 5) Boro have lost two out of three and finally Derby have lost one after a great run.Even if we lose tomorrow we would not be out of the running and, with the top two losing today, the final tally required to go up might just be a bit lower now so we might get away with dropping a few more points here or there; no guarantees though!
  9. [quote user="ron obvious"]Surfer, don''t forget Middlesborough play Derby & we play both, so I think that knocks one of them out.[/quote]If Boro beat Derby then (assuming we all win all our other games) we would be level on points with Derby; a draw or Derby win and we would pass Boro. Of course, Bournemouth are also above us and we don''t play them. They do have to play Boro but, in the above scenario, them and Derby could finish above us even if we win all our games.So it is not quite in our own hands, but our current form is so much better than Bournemouth''s (lost their last two, no win in four) that I can''t see them keeping pace with us. I really think it is going to be a close race between us and Boro for 2nd, with Derby likely to be about 3pts ahead. However, any of us three could slip up and, if two of us do, one of Ipswich or Watford could nick it. I think it''s probably the playoffs at best for Bournemouth and Brentford with one of them likely to finish 7th.
  10. [quote user="westcoastcanary"]In other words, the current top two have quite a cushion. They can afford to drop points against others in this group, including ourselves, and still finish ahead of us. [/quote]This is simply not true when you account for the actual fixtures involved. If we beat Ipswich, Derby and Middlesbrough (all at home) and all other fixtures between top 6 clubs are won by the home team and we match the other teams for the remaining games then it would come down to goal difference between us and Bournemouth for 2nd place; if Derby lose just one game more than that then they would be level too. This is highly unlikely to happen, but it shows that the remaining fixtures provide us with the perfect opportunity to close the gap without relying on other teams to drop unexpected points.Our chances of making the top two depend heavily on us winning those three crucial home matches against the teams above us. If we do that then I think we will be very close and it might take two out of Derby, Middlesbrough and Bournemouth winning some tough away games against the top teams to prevent that. Catching Derby would require them to slip up, but we only need to aim for second place.Over the last 6 games we have gained 2, 3, 6 and 8 points on Derby, Middlesbrough, Ipswich and Bournemouth respectively. If we all maintain that then we would comfortably finish 2nd. Based on a combination of  our recent and season long form (not taking the actual fixtures into account) I project us to finish 3rd on about 86pts.It is obviously very hard to predict what will actually happen other than to say there will be some surprises along the way. However, I think it is wrong to say that it is the current top two''s to lose.
  11. I remember going there when we were in the prem under Worthington while I was at university in Preston. Robert Green had a bad day but the first half he had the sun in his eyes and in the second he had torrential rain driving into his face. It just seemed like we were fated to lose. They had a bunch of t0ssers in their team at the time including Robbie Savage and Paul Dickov. We could never seem to score a goal away from home in those days.Things are very different now. I like the things Alex Neil has been saying about focusing on this game and avoiding complacency. We are on good form and I don''t remember a season where our away form has been so good. However, we cannot assume that we will win (or even draw) games like this one. What we do need to do is make sure that we win the big games and match the teams above us over the course of the remaining fixtures. They will all lose the odd game too. Things could be very close at the end of the season.
  12. I totally concur about the sentiment. The trouble is that it''s about supply and demand. Like any business, the club will charge the maximum price they can while still making enough sales (i.e.filling the ground). There are likely to be a few other considerations about sustainability in the medium to long term insofar as they do not want attendances to decline or people to be put off. However, they are trying to achieve the impossible balance of at least breaking even while paying the spiralling player wages and transfer fees required to compete in the league.If I could change things, I would heavily tax clubs for paying any player''s wages over a certain amount but offer them an equivalent tax break for reducing ticket prices; effectively fining them for having prices too high. Better still, make the premier league clubs subsidise the rest of the football pyramid so that even the poorest clubs can keep afloat. But we live in a capitalist world where us common folk are expected to (and do) pay to keep the rich people rich. If we start capping wages and other top leagues don''t then the best players will go abroad. Would you prefer to watch a lower standard of football for a lower price?
  13. I love the songs Bor. How about this for Sunday: SCUMMER TIME Scummer time... And the winning is easy Scummer time... It''s a walk in the park Your owner''s rich... But he''s no good at cooking Hush little scummer don''t you cry.
  14. [quote user="chicken"]I don''t think Hughtough changed too much - I think he had to. People wanted him to take the team on to the next level, and that means a team that is far more tactically flexible. What he failed to do, was to bring in capable strikers and to get the team playing together as a whole. In the first season he tightened us up defensively but he really failed to develop the forward play - in my opinion. And that was our undoing.[/quote]I think that the change needed to be more gradual. We were over-performing if you take the players as individuals but it was a massive gamble to try to replace so many in such a short time. It was madness to let Holt leave and letting Chris Martin go on a free looks very silly now. Three months into the season with none of our forwards firing one or other could have come back into the team and potentially made all the difference.I want to see the squad improve, but I want to keep the cohesion and passion in the team. There can be a fine line between good players and journeymen, just here to pick up their wages and it is vital to get the right personalities for the team. Players will inevitably leave - Cuellar  certainly and maybe Garrido (if we don''t take the extra year option) but maybe one or two out of Whitaker, Turner, Hoolahan and maybe Elliott Bennett- so we will have some holes to fill and we are a striker light (unless one of Lafferty or RVW come back in). I would want to bring in better players in each of those positions to improve the first team. However, I would be very alarmed if too many other players were shipped out. We need to keep the core of our team intact.
  15. I think the key is strengthening by bringing in quality and competition rather than making wholesale changes (which I think was Hughton''s biggest mistake). When we last went up we had and kept a strong team - by strong I mean cohesive and effective as a unit. They had an established style and were familiar with their own and each other''s roles in the team and had a strong team spirit. Under Hughton, sure, we changed tactics, but we also completely lost the cohesion and team spirit; by both bringing in too many new players (for big fees and on high wages) and letting too many key team players (go or fall out of favour).By the start of last season we had lost all five of the strikers who were on our books when Hughton took charge the year before. Of their replacements, only Hooper is still here. The midfield also lost most of its creativity by losing players like Surman and Fox with the injuries to Bennett and Pilkington (he was always injured!). The replacements were arguably good: Redmond, Howson, Tettey and Johnson are working well together now. I was a fan of Fer but I don''t think he was particularly committed and Snodgrass, while he did score most of our goals, always slowed our counter-attacks down and had a bad attitude (sulking, complaining etc.). I don''t think they worked as a team and I don''t think much though was put in to bringing in players who worked hard and worked together.What I would want , no matter which league we are playing in next season, is to move on the worst players in our squad in each area and replace them with someone as good as or better than the current best player in that area and then let them compete. I think we are a striker short so we should keep the current three and bring in someone to compete - ideal would be someone like Chris Martin. In midfield Wes can''t go on forever and is arguably only suited to one role but we do not need to ship anyone out. VOO might be good for us when fully recovered and be like a new signing, otherwise we could do with a quality left winger/CAM although Johnson has been fantastic on the left recently. I really think we are missing Surman. In defence Cuellar has been a flop, Turner inconsistent and Martin sometimes being exposed at CB. With the Bassong issues seemingly sorted and Ryan Bennett coming back from injury and the young lad from Arsenal to potentially come in we should probably sign one good centre back. Fullback is a potentially contentious area: Olsson is good but has made quite a few mistakes, Garrido should be adequate cover; at RB, Whittaker is ok but some people would have Martin as first choice. I would be buying a quality RB in the summer.tl;dr: Buy a Striker, CAM/LW, CB, RFB but done make wholesale changes.
  16. Talking about points per game is a bit misleading because we still have games against the teams above us and they will play each other as well. If we win those four games and the others have a fairly even distribution of results (i.e. two of those teams don''t win against all the others) then all we would have to do is match the top two for the remainder of our games to be fairly close to the top two.As an example, I put all of the current top 6 through the calculator at http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=2&submitform=Next. I simply put everyone to win all their games except where they play each other where I said the home team would win; and I put us to win all our games. This would see us finish level on points with 2nd place. Obviously this is not going to happen but it is an indication of what is possible given the actual fixtures. In reality, if we win those 4 games against the teams above us then we will have effectively made up the current gap to 2nd place, perhaps losing out on goal difference.The top teams are only up there because they have done better than anyone else so far and they are in no way guaranteed to continue their form. However, at the top of the table, there are always teams moving up to replace the ones that drop away - funny that - so we just need to be ready to fill that gap. The top teams this season have not really run away with it, all have had poor form at one point or other and it is likely that one or two of them will fall away. It is a big ask, but if we can continue our recent league form (8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in our last 12) for the rest of the season and make sure we win the crucial games then we will be very close to the top 2.We are on good form, playing good football and seem to have sorted out a few of the problems we were having earlier in the season. I am not predicting that we will finish 2nd, just that it wouldn''t surprise me if we did, or at least push them all the way. I think we''ll probably finish 3rd or 4th on about 82 points, but it would only take a couple of results going for us to turn that into 88 points which could well be enough.
  17. If anyone is going to be Frank, it should be me! Hopefully we''ll see a bit more of the manager''s philosophy pervade through the team. Having his assistant and best player from Hamilton in the mix can only help things.
  18. I have a spare under 12s ticket if anyone wants it for face value of £12. I am not sure if you can exchange it for an adult one. I also have an adult ticket next to it so could swap for a single adult seat if someone wants to bring a child and sit next to them. Pm me if you''re interested.
  19. We''re not really doing that at the moment. Hard to win games without.
  20. Yeah, this makes no sense at all. He is not for sale so there is no asking price. Our valuation would be the point at which we would want to sell because the money was enough. That might be £15m or £20m but there would come a point where we would say "Ok, we didn''t want to sell but we can''t refuse that much". If they didn''t offer enough to actually make us agree to sell him then they did not meet our asking price. What a stupid thing to come out with.
  21. I''ve been one of his harsher critics in the past, largely for his previously poor pass completion rate. I have never doubted his work rate but he actually made relatively few successful tackles or interceptions in the Premier League and he committed quite a lot of fouls; although I seem to remember him having made the most fouls without receiving a booking at one point. Another frustrating thing is that he would sometimes completely fail to track a run from midfield into the box leaving their man unmarked to head or tap in. Not exactly what you want from a defensive midfielder.While you could argue that Johnson and Tettey between them should have been there to stop the opening goal last night, his performances in the last two games have been fantastic; particularly the passing and shooting. You could say that it is easier at this level, you get a bit more time on the ball and the opposition leave a few more gaps and make more positional errors which make passing a bit easier. Another factor is that the new system we are playing and the overall attacking intent from the team is allowing him to play a bit further up the pitch and is providing him with some team mates who are running into space, wanting the ball; these all help.However, I genuinely believe he has made some significant improvements to his game: he is taking the simple option when appropriate in order to retain possession but he is also growing in terms of vision and creativity. He has always had an amount of creativity - I''ll always remember that 28 pass move that led to Pilkington scoring against Sunderland with Johnson playing him in - it''s just often been that he has seemed to lack the accuracy or ability to pull things off; on the evidence of the last two games he is very much improved in both. Finally, his shooting seems to have been transformed. In the past it was more a case of smash it as hard as possible whereas the two goals he''s scored this year have been exquisite, curling, controlled finishes. It''s almost as if he''s been practising.
  22. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/legacy/thefootballtacticsblog/2012/05/you_will_probably_know_that.html
  23. Was the best crosser of the ball in all of Europe''s top divisions in our first season back in the prem.
×
×
  • Create New...