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Fromage Frais

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Posts posted by Fromage Frais

  1. Posted

    6 hours ago, Indy said:

    I have I wouldn’t have invested in this scenario full stop without actually taking majority share ownership and moving the full legal control to me! This joint ownership is questionable as it technically doesn’t allow you to drive your new business. That’s my view and how it legally stands, regardless of comments in the AGM or what a few fans perceive.

    But I’m still unsure why if it’s so clear cut it’s taking so long to be formally pushed through! It’s strange to me that it’s taking so long.

    I hope it gets sorted before June, I hope we have a clear leader at the top who comes out and is going to work alongside Knapper and I really hope they sort out the manager too, if Wagner is staying that needs to be clear in May or change it before the end of the season to allow the new manager to review the squad before the summer.

    The crowd yesterday were flat, reacted negatively and from what I saw it wasn’t 20% either it’s more in the 50%. We need to sort this all out it’s been too long! Just my view.

    Maybe there is a performance element to it dragging on.

    Improbably getting promoted results in a world of difference in value. 

    I am like you no way would I invest in something without the ability to change things.  I am surprised they can do a deal with the current owners as doing well enough to stay/not doing bad enough to leave is not the recipe for a bargain per se.  Why would you spend ages on Norwich when other teams go kaput and you can have total control, a bargain and delighted fans having been saved.

     

  2. Posted

    On 28/12/2022 at 17:45, Virtual reality said:

    Stuart Webber may as well come out waving a white flag and admitting he is a one trick pony if Wagner is appointed. His Huddersfield championship side were superb but it appears to have gone hugely downhill ever since. Poor man’s Daniel Farke 

    Bit harsh

    Both got to the prem from the champs.

    Wagner managed to keep his team in there there which Farke never achieved as much as I love the guy.  

    https://www.fourfourtwo.com/news/taking-a-closer-look-at-previous-german-managers-in-the-premier-league-1662553829000

    Farke - 49 matches, won 6, drew 8, lost 35; win percentage 12.2

    Wagner - 60 matches, won 11, drew 15, lost 34; win percentage 18

    Both got sacked

    Wagner then got the Schalke job which is a massive one which did not work out.

    I would hazard a guess that non city fans would have the view they are very similar careers with quite similar career paths despite having a different style Wagner being more pressing (if I remember correctly and back in the day that HT team looked really good).  Farke would obviously be considered king of the Championship but then many clubs would have sacked their manager during the first prem campaign.

    Yes he got sacked by young boys as they demanded to be champions (they came second) he also won a game against Manchester United which was in the champions league group stage... a level which Farke has yet to manage in?
     


    So if the guy is motivated and sees us as the ideal place to prove to everyone he is the real deal I consider this a good appointment.

    https://terrierspirit.com/david-wagners-tactics/

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  3. Posted

    Heart = stay

    Head = if near 10 million he does not suit the new system as much and is off on a free soon.

    He is an experienced player and may well not want to be on the bench as Sargent surges in form.

    If I was reaching the end of my contract and had a chance to play in the premier league again with a new contract and a bump in salary of say over  20 percent + and bonuses etc….. would be tempting at his age.

     

     

     

    • Like 2

  4. Posted

    23 hours ago, Badger said:

    It seems that a local businessman has loaned Derby enough money to continue trading and start the season.

    He is rumoured to be one of the interested parties in taking over the club. I wonder what would happen if he fails to get it over the line and the new owner refuses to include this new loan as part of the deal to buy the club?

     

    Image

    https://www.clowesfund.org

    Looks like more American investors.

    As the £ plummets and the FED rises faster than the BOE its going to be supermarket sweep. 

  5. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais

    Interesting with the falling pound there is going to be a large number of US investors snapping up football teams/companies/anything.

    But seems like only two ways to make money.

    1)  Get in the prep and sell after picking up a bargain club in the champs.  Risky as need to be there for a few seasons in a row.

    2)  Get promoted and the owners can vote to remove relegation/reduce size.  A scenario so lucrative for the big six that getting mates to buy the smaller teams and vote against their own interests could be a possibility for up front cash/compo.

    So unless there is some form of sports business intra company tax deduction type thingy I don't see the allure outside of options 1 or 2.

    Anyhow fingers crossed it all works out and its for the best.
     

  6. Posted

    On 19/03/2022 at 16:41, Badger said:

    This evaluation, is the one that Middlesbrough's "independent" valuers put on it. Given that we are told it would cost us 30 million just a build a new stand at Carrow road it seems suspicious low to me.😀

    Interesting ... From this it looks like Middleborough not that far out

    Derby County: Frustrated buyers say £22M price tag for Pride Park forced cost of deal above £50M.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-10657199/Derby-County-Frustrated-buyers-say-22M-price-tag-Pride-Park-forced-cost-deal-50M.html

  7. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais

    17 minutes ago, Badger said:

    Whoever gets Derby will get it for nothing. It's all about how much of Derby's debts they are prepared to pay. 

    They owe much more than the 20 to 30 million you quote. £27 million to HMRC alone - at the moment, the administrators are trying to get HMRC to take a haircut.

    The main point, however, is that it is not a comparative purchase for valuation purposes. Whoever gets Derby, will get a bargain, because the administrators don't have any choice but to get rid of it.

     

     


    Every business that folds, every factory that shutters more often than not results in creditors loosing money or agreeing to pennies in the £.  They will take a haircut as DCFC dont have the liquidation value better something then nothing.

    Prices paid are made on the margin so in essence it is interesting to see how much Derby are worth in a fire sale.

    Norwich is not for sale so Delia can say 100 - 300 million + 

    I respect your points but i feel it is comparable as its one of the closest clubs to our size and will give an indication of the demand out there. 
     

    12 minutes ago, Badger said:

    This evaluation, is the one that Middlesbrough's "independent" valuers put on it. Given that we are told it would cost us 30 million just a build a new stand at Carrow road it seems suspicious low to me.😀

    I can spend 10 million on a bronze statue of Mr Blobby ..... does not mean anyone is going to pay 10 million for it.

    Carrow road value for Norwich = xx million

    Carrow Road value no Norwich City = demolition and development which is substantial but not same league.

     

  8. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais

    It is hard to build a team for promotion from the champs with a view to the premier league.

    Better to do as we have before build a team to win the champs and worry about the rest later.

    I certainly would not sell any player in our team who is a proven champs performer unless worth it/they demand to leave.

    GK= Champs proven

    The defence = Champs proven

    Midfield = Weaker than last champs season*

    Attack = Weaker than last champs season**

    * Skipp not replaced and a lack of creativity it maybe that with a Skipp replacement other players improve against the lower quality opposition.

    **  Rashica and Sargent not proven in the Champs logically both should do better against poorer slower opposition.  Pukki older and Emi was a fantastic player whom was too good for the champs last season.


    I do not see the consistency/durability of Kabak or Norman and the money should be used to get as decent a CDM as possible if they do not have long term faith in Sorensen.

    It will be very interesting to see who stays or not I think a few decent additions and the stark quality difference between the champs and Prem will be revealed.....ergo we should be competitive

     


     

  9. Posted

    33 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

    The Derby price doesn't include the stadium and includes taking on the debts so not comparable. Bear in mind that Ipswich went for £30m with no assets at all. 

    A fair point.

    "A back-and-forth followed between Boro and the EFL last summer, with the club’s solicitors asserting last July that the sale of Pride Park had not been at Fair Market Value.

    The club commissioned their own independent valuation which suggested a fee of £22.7m would have been “more realistic”."

    https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/58m-difference-middlesbrough-derby-valuations-18835544

    So realistically circa 30 million and another 20-30 million for the stadium. 50 - 60 million + certain debts as in administration .

    Still not getting to 100million

    I feel it is very comparable as a similar sized club in the championship.

    We also have a whole squad rebuild next year though I admit we probably have a few more saleable assets.

    That is probably why there is little interest we are not a bargain and there are no guarantees of promotion either so why bother.

    If Derby was not applicable or a bargain... why is Mike Ashley et all thinking hey Derby have debts and no stadium lets buy Norwich instead... which he could do easily.  

    Unless you are a premium top club football looks like the kind of market where unless you are cheap/motivated/distressed it is hard to get a deal done.


     

  10. Posted

    1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

    All quite correct but any new investment would take the Smith Jones shareholdings below 50% unless of course they were buying non voting shares. I think it's always been obvious that no one is going to hand over a significant chunk of money without having control of the club. So we are in a position where Smith and Jones have to sell for things to change and I don't see that happening in the near future. 

    As regards Jim's comment regarding the claims there has been no interest, I think we need to read those statements very carefully. I take them to mean that there has been no interest based on the terms laid out by Smith and Jones which is very different from 'there has been no interest'.

    With Smith and Jones standing on 51% they are effectively asking people to give them money to increase the value of their shares in exchange for absolutely nothing. 

    As things stand an interested party would probably have to fork out around £100m to buy the Smith Jones shares along with a further amount to buy out other shareholders who decided to take the offer. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I think the same offer has to be made to all shareholders. 

    We really need another £50m to bring the ground up to Premier League standard and God knows how much to create a team capable of surviving in the Premier League. I'd guess around £200m initially. 

    So we're looking for someone with around £400m to improve the current situation. Oh well, never mind. 

    I think the price for derby is in the 20-30 million £ zone

    I dont see anyone paying near 100m

    Inflation, and recession on the way anyhow so maybe more folk will be as "poor" as we are once the interest rates filter through on all those debts

  11. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais

    On 17/03/2022 at 10:33, hogesar said:

    I don't really think so, no. These potential buyers have appeared because the media is publicising it, as are Chelsea. And it's a firesale, so there's always going to be interested parties at this point.

    Abramovic has apparently received countless offers during the time he owned the club, because it's Chelsea. The locality, the global powerhouse, Champions League etc, it's only 1 of 4 clubs in the UK you can buy with that amount of credential. It's in the top 10 in the world.

    Again, if there was any serious interest in our club we'd have heard about it. If a billionaire wants something, they don't meekly hide away and move on just because Delia Smith said "No, sorry". 

    It's been done to death on different threads but we aren't an investment opportunity so we either need a billionaire Norwich fan (who i'd welcome with open arms) or we need someone who wants the club as more of a brand enhancement tool. Unfortunately, we're quite unfashionable in that respect and there'd be plenty of better options, likely at better prices due to mis-managed finances at other clubs.

    This.

    Chelsea may play the same sport but they are in a different planet.

    Norwich is a lovely club with a great fan base and outperforms its size.

    It has low prestige outside the UK and limited upside potential.

    The money to be made is buy cheap > get promoted > sell

    Ironically the most likely Prem buyer may well be a USA based mate of another clubs owner as that premier league vote could one day be used to form a breakaway premier league or join a super league.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2011/oct/17/foreign-owners-premier-league-relegation

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/premier-league-big-six-rebel-against-owners-charter-3s07763p3



    Imagine one vote needed so the glaziers get their mate to buy Norwich (if in prem again) and then condemn Norwich to never being in the premier league again.

    In effect buying Norwich/el al for 100 million to add a billion $ each to the value of the top 5




     

  12. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais


    Therein lies the business case on how to make money in football MA is a billionaire he has already sold one premier league club and he feels like Derby at around that level of investment can be bought > promoted and then sold for say 100/200 million or roundabouts.

    You can argue MA is annoying when you are a Newcastle and you think you should be signing megastars and loosing 400,000k a day like Chelsea (nuts).

    But for Derby I do not see the bad side, they are in Admin and some debts wont get paid and others might MA comes in, club at a low ebb does he want to be a meh loss making champs side... of course not he has the money so I expect them to be strong contenders in due course on a budget yes but they will have plans.

    Once up the moaning will start but he will be able to cash out and then repeat.


     

  13. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais

    Rashica has looked ok ish for a few games.

    https://www.whoscored.com/Players/289014/Show/Milot-Rashica

    I would not say he has stamped himself as a premier league player as yet and still living off a bit of new signing hype.

    https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/milot-rashica/profil/spieler/291739

    I think they have it bang on we signed for around 9m and he is currently down a bit on that around 7m.

    Champs is slower so i would expect him to tear it up there to be worth 7-10 million

    One in the sorry you want to leave Rashica but you did not really do much last year and we are not taking a loss.   Hammer them in in the champs and you can leave in January for a profit or leave once we are promoted.

    Saying that if he comes back and gets some goals/ assists and the whole team makes more of a fist of it maybe he can go if a profit can be had leaving money for a couple of players who want to be here.

    Sadly atm though we are so crap everyones stock is falling and I dont see who would want to pay more so a bit in the champs (which still gets you sold out over 10 million if any good) may be not the purgatory it once was.

  14. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais

    35 minutes ago, 1902 said:

    Quality DMs are like gold dust, as are 13/14 goal a season strikers for small premier league sides. I cannot for the life of me see us having the money for those kinds of players unless Max and Cantwell go for good money.

    If I'm honest, the only way I can see us staying up is if Webber pulls a couple of rabbits from hats and I'm no longer convinced he can do that at this level.

    Finding disproportionately valuable players for the championship is possible, I just don't think the number of players available globally, who qualify for a work permit and aren't already known enough to be out of our price range is there for this kind of strategy.

    Agreed.

    We are not going to get anyone whom is obvious from the prem.  We are so bad atm no point spoiling next seasons promotion possibilities by blowing the budget.

    However.... i think this years Prem X1 may well loose against last years Champs X1.

    So for me we need a DM and a fast striker for next year anyhow so may as well buy them now with an eye on next season in the champs if at all possible.

    If thats possible who knows its going downhill so fast I would be considering a signing just to prevent the season becoming a toxic nightmare.

  15. Posted

    I quite liked the look of most of the signings tbf.

    However they did not and still do not address the issues
     

    1. We lost Skipp and needed to replace him with a tough physically able DM before skipp we had tetty we now have worse.  The thrashings come from the midfield getting over run.
    2. We still do not have an overly strong, great in the air or mega fast striker.  There is no plan B we dont steal goals or set pieces I dont even ask for a wonderful player just someone with a facet that causes havoc.  
    3. We need a number 10 I assumed this was to be BG but since we seem to like playing him deeper then we should have signed a number 10 at least someone who can get into the box

     

  16. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais

    1 hour ago, chrisr1606 said:

    Who in all likelihood is going to stump up the cash to a) buy a controlling stake in the club and b) then put in around £200mill (finger in the air estimate of additional 150mill for transfer/agent fees and 50mill for the extra wages) from their own pocket for us to then finish, what...15th? Where is the attraction for a business person. Without Saudi-type money I don't think our ceiling is realistically too far above where we are unfortunately.

    There is none

    I have posted it before most fans have no clue as the sums of money are mind boggling yet are thrown around like confetti in football.

    Outside football who is going to bring 300+ Million and want to loose most of it.   Folk are asking for new owners without a clue who those new owners will be, are we so dumb we think that like in FM once Delia gets ousted the Emir of some gulf state is going to step in why?  

    For perspective if you have over 500m you would be in the top 20/30 richest people in East Anglia and often they are not from the area and have wisely no interest in football.

    There is only one business case for new owners at NCFC and thats they go down Delia looses millions and then the club is for sale in the xx million bracket probably league one

    The new owners will then think hey we can get this team up and cash out or take some money out once in the premier league.
     
    Just look at us Delia hero once promoted and villain within a year.... after spending 60 million its nuts.

    If you want new owners go out make 500+ million and buy it off her I am sure she would rip your hand off.

    Until then the real blame is the signing of players who looked like they where never going to make it.
     

    • Like 1

  17. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais

    11 hours ago, RobJames said:

    That's something I raised previously. Players like Drmic, Trybull and Leitner. Then Cantwell. What happened with Sorensen?  Maybe things got pushed a little too far.

    From another perspective.

    Imagine your Webber or one of the owners.

    Cantwell is/was worth 20m +£ and then suddenly frozen out.

    That approach to man management could get costly pretty quickly especially when loosing games.

  18. Posted

    2 hours ago, Badger said:

    I am absolutely sure that they have made a very big profit on their investment. The issue is whether someone buying their shares at market value would be able to do likewise. You are perfectly at liberty to outline to me a scenario whereby City could be worth £500 million+ in the future.

    This

    City are well run not in much debt and make money from selling players at the moment.

    If they stay in the premier league they are going to make some money from being there + selling players.

    If they get relegated (likely) not so much.

    I can only see a few scenarios where Norwich City become attractive.

    1)  We stay in the premier league with a comfortably mid table side for another couple of seasons more prestigious and lower risk of relegation.  You might be able to sell at value but i dont see someone paying a premium esp once rates start to rise.

    2)  The current owners become motivated or distressed and sell for cheap due to relegation etc

    If City go down and the club goes into a bit of a tailspin the most profitable punt for a 25-100 million to spend investor is buying the club and getting promoted then potentially selling for 100m

    There are a lot of folk like that and few maybe even in the area I think reports put Delia and husband putting say 10-20 million in back in the day.

    However at the moment with the club in the premier league and not doing great who is going to pay the 100-200m and then roll the dice on staying up.

    Your then talking about billionaires rolling the dice for what is a very low return where you are more likely to lose your money and get abused than making money.

    The big reason big clubs are going for such cash is a bet on a super league and cutting teams like City loose.  We saw what the giants of Europe want to do.

    At some stage they are going to try and do a premier league netflix and take control and try and get more money and at every stage the new investors and large clubs are going to try and cut out and do down the also rans like us.








     

  19. Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ken Hairy said:

    Since TVBs poll have you changed your opinion? 

    I was in the undecided camp, but sadly I'm now 100% in the Farke should go camp. I'll never chant against him after what he's done at a lower level, but he's not cut out for this level, and just like with players you remove any who won't make the step up. 

    I get the argument for keeping him to get us back up, but I wouldn't be able to stomach a 3rd attempt at this. 

    This is a very different situation sadly imho.

    Last time we went up and that team played during the season and went down plucky but not good enough.

    This time we went up and a load of the team have gone (maybe worse) a lot of them are on loan and again imho we are worse than the last time we where here so far as a team.

    Less committed players, no Emi, Pukki older..... no guarantees.

    Its Delia's money but from my ignorant seat I would consider it less of a risk rolling the dice now than assuming we will go up again.

    Farke stays we are definitely down (unless some form of miracle) as it stands .

    • Like 1

  20. Posted

    Just now, RugbyCanary said:

    I asked the question to mate of mine just before this season kicked off.......is Gilmore that good or is the hype train running? Leave him on, but, change formation to help him/them just getting over run in midfield. Getting over powered. 4-2-3-1........please just to shore it up a bit?? Surly

    So far looks a classic case of tidy, talented but to small, weak and slow.

    Maybe further up the pitch or around some athletic players that would not be an issue but in the role we are using him its looked painful sometimes.

    Its so obviously bad that I assume he will be pushed further up positionally once another option joins.

    • Like 1

  21. Posted

    On a side note it’s going to be interesting how they actually get enough staff to put the games on at higher capacities.

    Chefs up a lot I have been told, bar staff difficult to get let alone hundreds a time….. and security guards apparently even more difficult.

    The off pitch costs for the club are going to be way more than inflation not just players.

  22. Posted

    On 21/05/2021 at 18:05, Thirsty Lizard said:

    Best player I've seen for us was Chris Sutton. He scored 25 goals in a Premier League season. Was transferred for £5 million which was a record for a British player at the time. To give you an idea of what that means in today's money the modern equivalent fee would be £90 million. 

    This is my line of thinking also.

    Skill/Gifted vs Effectiveness.

    EB is a wonderful player but in terms of effectiveness at the top level the jury is out his stock is higher no than after the relegation but if a team had wanted to pay 30+ million for him he would have been out the door.

    Playing devils advocate they saw a very industrious player with top draw technique, pace not so much and not scoring enough goals which meant that whilst they would consider a good price for him he would be much more valuable to us.  

    From back in the day the legends from 87 - 05 dined at the top table and Europe and it unlikely that we will see their like again for some time (if ever).
     

     

  23. Posted · Edited by Fromage Frais

    4 minutes ago, Michael Wynless Jones said:

    We won't sign anyone else regardless of how many more leave, this was always the plan, make the club self funding so Delia doesn't have to sell, the league we're actually in is irrelevant. Expect a rinse and repeat with the likes of Idah, Martin etc in a couple of seasons. Nothing will change under her stewardship. 

    Well if they think they are going to get 20 million for those then we will have to either be in the premier league or at the top of the champs.

    It cuts both ways if they sell all the best current players and bag the cash then pull it off on a shoestring = genius.  If not and they pocket the cash and we drift to mid table mediocrity then the success of the past will be a deemed a fluke/good fortune.

  24. Posted

    3 minutes ago, Alex Moss said:

    Just to recap, Webber never said we wouldn’t sell any of the 5. He said we were in a position where we didn’t have to, so any outgoings would be on Norwich City’s terms. He did also say we wouldn’t sell all 5 of them. At the moment Emi is looking the most likely to stay. I’d take that. 

    Stuart Webber has not broken his word or any promises before anyone gets their knickers in a twist. 

    Statements like that are meaningless in this day and age.

    The fact is we do not have to sell them on the cheap, which we have not.  As long as any premier league team pays the going rate for any of our players they are off.

    The model is sell for profit so I understand so the proof of the pudding will be the new signings made once the sales have been concluded.

    Now that will be a massive achievement promotion on a shoestring > best players sold > rebuild and then promotion challenge would be most impressive.

  25. Posted

    6 minutes ago, Samwam27 said:

    This will show if Norwich are serious about getting promoted. If you lose quality of Godfrey, you have to replace that, else you can't in any seriousness say, we've got quality and strength in depth to go a whole season and challenge.

    And you can't in all seriousness say its ok weve got Klose & Hanley as their injury records have been atrocious last two seasons

    We have money in the bank. Let's hope Webber's got something lined up ready  

    If you are one of the other sellable players you must be thinking hey maybe I should make sure I jump ship also asap.

    A few months of not performing as expected in the champs in a depleted side will bring that value down for us and for them also.

    Who is going to be next off?

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