Curious Canary

So it’s just the defence then, all the defence or just some of it? Or maybe the strikers. Howson and Dorrans wanted to go, but the midfield is ok anyway. Because we can rely on Reed, Maddison, Vrancic and Hoolhan?

So we haven’t missed Howson or Dorrans. And you would be happy to see Tettey go to. Suppose you think Ruddy and Bennett weren’t worth keeping either (or Brady and Olsson for that matter). And with the likes of Martin and Hoolahan past their peak that’s 9 experience championship players to be replaced with the likes of: Husband - slow Middlesboro reserve Franke – weak, can’t head a ball Read – promising but a sprog Vrancic and Maddison – physically weak And other unknown Germans. “Our failings have been down to woeful defending” … that’s only half the problem. A weak defence, sure, but with no midfield protection and no experience, no leadership. You seem to be saying that we are a better side than last season. As for Howson’s best role, centre midfield, license to go forward, and work rate to provide defensive cover when we don’t have the ball and with Tettey holding. Who does that role in the team now? We didn’t have much choice with Howson and Dorrans they wanted to go. Letting Tettey go would just make a bad situation worse. Why is Tettey out of favour? Maybe the manager doesn’t rate him and prefers the inexperienced Reed. Maybe he thinks Tettey can’t play in the same side as Reed. Maybe he’s not training well. Maybe he’s a high earner and they just want to get him off the books. It would be worrying if Farke didn’t appreciate what a good player Tettey is. But then it’s worrying that we play a whole bunch of lightweights in midfield (Read, Vrancic, Maddison and Hoolahan), in front of a defence that cant head a ball, away to Millwall. Tettey should be club captain, who else can you rely on to provide a decent shift?

Good call TJ. Interesting pre-match comment by Farke: “I don’t like to rotate and to change after a setback, especially at the beginning of the season. The guys need to be trusted and to find rhythm. But we have four games in nine days and three in six days, so for that I think it’s necessary to bring some fresh legs on the pitch. Wes will be fresher, as will Josh Murphy and Mario Vrancic.” So with five changes surely this wasn’t just about rotation it was about the defensive formation and creating more positive attacking options. Was Wildschut injured or rotated, or are Naismith, Jerome, Watkins, Stiepermann? regarded as better options for the bench. Maybe all of the above. Expect more rotation.

Interesting to compare a couple of recent signings based on the analysis of some data. Owls sign Jordan Rhodes (age 27). On 31 Aug 2012 Rhodes moved from Huddersfield to Blackburn, considered Market Value (MV) £2.98m, with a reported transfer fee of £8.59m. On 1 Feb 2016 Rhodes, MV now revised to £8.5m, moved to Boro for £10.12m. One year later with the MV still at £8.5m, Sheff W sign him for £9.95m (initially on loan). Current MV stands at £8.5m Rhodes record is: Championship 195 games, 94 goals, 17 assists League One 122 games 70 goals, 12 assists Available for 7 games for Sheff W: 7 starts, 600 total mins, 3 goals, 1 assist. Canaries sign Yanic Wildschut (age 25). On 1 Sept 2014 Wildschut moved from Heerenveen to Boro, considered MV £680k, with a reported transfer fee of £680k. On 9 Jan 2016 Wildschut, MV dropped to £425k, moved to Wigan for £680k. One year later the MV was revised to £638k and Norwich sign him for £6.97m. Current MV stands at £3.40m Wildschuts record is: Championship 42 games, 6 goals, 2 assists League One 34 games 7 goals, 14 assists Available for 7 games for Norwich: 4 starts, 1 sub, 294 total mins, no goals, no assists.

LDC says: “Sorry to be pessimistic for once, but it does show how one game can ruin a season.” One!? One!!? Short attention span? Best not mention: Birmingham 3 Norwich City 0 Brighton 5 Norwich City 0 Norwich City 2 Leeds United 3 QPR 2 Norwich City 1 Norwich City 1 Huddersfield Town 2 Reading 3 Norwich City 1 Rotherham 2 Norwich City 1 Wigan 2 Norwich City 2 Number of teams in the top 10 that we have beaten: NONE. Played 10 won: NONE. If only we had beaten the mighty Burton Albion.

Quite remarkable! After 21 games Norwich are in the top of half of the table together with (obviously) 11 others. And of those 11 Norwich have beaten … none of them. So far Norwich have played 9 with results D L L D L L L L L Probably never in our history has this happened before. And the next two games are against the other two teams in top 12 that we haven’t played yet. First the resurgent Huddersfield … surely our best chance to break the sequence. Fascinating.

[quote user="Thirsty Lizard"]Seeing as Chris Hughton''s Brighton are top of the League Curious Canary I think it would be a good thing at the moment for our team to look like their''s. Don''t you?[/quote] The problem Hughton had when he was at Norwich was that he started to lose more matches than he won and tried to stem the tide by becoming unadventurous and harder to beat. He lost confidence that we could get results by setting up to attack teams so he played a cautious game hoping to nick a result. His situation at Brighton is quite different. Brighton are better than most other teams in the division. You have to admit that he certainly has got their defence organised. Also they are getting a bit of luck at the moment, playing against 10 men can help. So why are Brighton doing better than Norwich? Who has the best squad? Who has the better manager? Is it just the rub of the green? Now that everyone thinks that AN has at last got it right it seems that it is onwards and upwards with a midfield of Mulumbu, Dorrans, Howson and Brady.

Just for a moment let’s make an objective assessment which is not mostly based on the results of the games. The differences between the set up for Barnsley and Villa were: Left back: Olsson preferred to Brady Defensive midfield: Mulumbu instead of Howson Attacking midfield: Howson and Brady moved forward to replace Murphy and Pritchard So obviously the set up against Villa was much more defensive. I cannot fully understand the logic here against two mid-table teams. AN in my view made the wrong team selection in both matches. Should have been more solid at Barnsley and more adventurous at home to Villa. The first half against Villa was dull, defensive and uninspiring. Yes the players did their jobs, didn’t make mistakes and Villa were poor. It got better in the second half. I thought that the support from the Barclay before we scored was magnificent. But it could so easily have finished 0-0 or 1-1. No doubt the set up for Huddersfield will be equally defensive. Might be the odd change (Mulumbu or Tettey?) (can Murphy play two in a week?). Does anyone think that Alex Neil is looking more and more like Chris Hughton as the season progresses?

Parma: “Why can we win handsomely on Saturday, lose 5 games on the spin previously and yet win 7 out of the previous 8?....what specific factors link these seemingly contradictory statistics?... Firstly we are trying to be too good.” Or maybe the teams we beat just weren’t very good. And we didn’t win 7 out of 8. The previous 8: Fulham (a) now 10th 2-2 Rotherham (h) now 24th won 3-1 Wolves (a) now 20th won 2-1 Newcastle (a) top lost 4-3 Burton (h) now 19th won 3-1 Nottm F (a) now 13th won 2-1 Wigan (h) now 23rd won 2-1 Cardiff City (h) now 22nd won 3-2 That’s 5 wins against teams now in the bottom 6. No wonder we beat Brentford the current 7th from bottom. We didn’t have to try to be too good against any of them, we just were (although sometimes not by much). It’s hardly contradictory that we lost to: Preston 14th (good manager who did suss us out) Brighton 2nd Leeds 4th QPR 17th (new manager, player sent off), Derby 9th. We should have tried harder to be too good against them. In the 5 games it was goals for 3, against 11 and only in the Preston game did we have more shots on target than the opposition. Not many contradictory stats there.

Eagles Founded: 1905, promoted to PL in 2013, now in 4th season in the PL Ground Capacity: 25,456 Chairman/Owner: Steve Parish, businessman age 51, net worth £45m, saved the club in 2010 with investment syndicate, hands- on involvement with the running of the club Finance: Debt free, part owned by Americans; 50 year old billionaire Joshua Harris and 46 year old sports investor David Blitzer Manager: Alan Pardew since Jan 2015, 18 years experience, win % with Palace 41% Recent Record: Lost 6 league games in a row Current Situation: Alan Pardew in talks with Steve Parish as concerned Crystal Palace chiefs seek signs he can turn the season around Odds to be relegated: 9/2 Canaries Founded: 1902, promoted to PL in 2011 and 2015, relegated after 3 seasons and 1 season Ground Capacity: 27,244 Chairman: Ed Ball, ex-politician, academic, tv personality, age 49, net worth? Owner: Delia Smith, cook, author, tv personality, age 75, net worth £23m, saved the club in 1996 along with writer, editor, publisher Michael Wynn-Jones, hands-off involvement with the running of the club Finance: Debt free, no new investment Manager: Alex Neil since Jan 2015, 3 years experience, win % with City 43% Recent Record: Lost 6 games in a row, 5 league and 1 cup Current Situation: Delia says “If I had my way now I’d give Alex all the time he needs. I would. But you see in football, now …” Odds to be promoted: 100/30 Interesting (well at least I think so).

Hello again. Good news …the chance of bouncing back to the PL has improved since the start of the season. It’s a decent start to what could turn out to be an unpredictable season. Clearly a number of teams are under preforming such as Aston Villa, Derby and Sheffield W. We haven’t played Villa or Derby but we couldn’t beat Wednesday (something that Burton, Leeds and Birmingham have done). Here we are in second place after 8 games, yet we have only managed to beat one team in the top half of the table, and they are in 12th. And although we won against Bristol C, Cardiff and Wigan personally I don’t think that we played that well. The Forest win was a good one. The big question is can we play better if the opposition is better, we often do and we need to. Some say that playing well doesn’t matter, it’s the result that counts. I say that it’s impossible to keep winning if you don’t play well. Would you believe that the bookmakers have us a best price 8/11 to go up. That’s a 58% probability. Next up a simple task of thrashing Burton (the third worst team in the league). Looks like a cake walk then.

[quote user="hogesar"]WHY CAN FOREST SIGN PLAYERS BUT NOT US THEY AINT EVEN FAMOUS ANYMOREZ AND PLUS WHO WANTS TO SIGN FOR A TEAM WITH A TREE ON THEIR F*CKING CREST, WHO DO THEY THINK THEY ARE F*CKING OXFAM?!etc etc.[/quote] Tree? Clue in the name … Nottingham FOREST Nottingham Forest will always be famous: League Division One winners FA Cup winners twice League Cup winners four times European Cup winners twice UEFA Super Cup winners Only a biased short sighted idiot would seriously say that Norwich City are more famous than Nottingham Forest. Club founded in 1865. Ground capacity potentially 30,445 (although recently reduced to zero on safety grounds) now at 24,357. Since 2012 owned by Fawaz Mubarak Al-Hasawi, a Kuwaiti businessman (who takes an active role as chairman) who has an estimated net worth £1.4 billion. Nottingham estimated population 320,000 and 750,000 in the wider area with an excellent transport system. First class cricket county and Test Match ground. Instead of directing ire at Nottingham Forest perhaps you should focus on the reasons why Norwich find it difficult to attract good players. In any case not sure that Bendtner is such a great signing anyway.

TCCANARY “You mentioned it on page one.” OK so I did. Should have said “those who are confident we will get back up this season…” But it’s just playing with words. It must have been obvious that the point of the posting was to look at the statistical evidence and to consider the CHANCES of bouncing straight back in terms of PROBABILITY. But of course a lot of people don’t think like that. They only think in black and white! Unless you put a number on “confident” or “easy” it’s fairly meaningless. That’s the point. Talk is cheap. You might think that we will get promotion this season but anyone saying that it is certain must be stupid. And then it seems that anyone who doesn’t express certainty and faith seems to be regarded by some as negative. Last season from fairly early on there were only 6 or 7 teams with a realistic chance of going down. Early season it was 50-50, in January it was odds on we would go down. This season based on what we know now there are around 14 teams that have realistic chances of going up (some more than others). We have got off to a good start. We are in a better position with three points on the board. But there’s 98% of the season to go and it’s unlikely that we end up with 138 points. As of now the probability is that we won’t go up, that doesn’t mean you stop trying. On the contrary it means making even effort to maximise the chances.

TCCANARY it was you that made the comment “Has anyone seen a post where someone says it will be easy to get promoted?” I didn’t mention the word “easy”, no idea why you are obsessing about it. There are only two options either we go up or we don’t. Iwan Roberts, hogesar, and probably about a third of city fans, presumably including you, think we will go up. Whether it’s “easy” or not is irrelevant. Are you “so confident” of promotion. If your confidence level its better than 27% best you get to the bookies and lump on.

[quote user="Hoola Han Solo"]What are the chances of you writing anything positive?[/quote] It is neither positive nor negative, it is factual. Don’t blame the messenger.

[quote user="hogesar"]Ignoring the rest of your miserable, boring post that''s wrong in so many places, it''s also wrong in that a quick look has us typically 9/4 to get promoted, second favourites behind Newcastle.[/quote] Put your money where your mouth is. How much would you like on at 9 to 4? If there are mistakes in the stats and there may be, I would be grateful if you could point them out.

[quote user="TCCANARY"]Has anyone seen a post where someone says it will be easy to get promoted?[/quote] Suggest you read today’s Pink Un missive. Norwich City will bounce straight back to the Premier League “I think they are more than capable of winning one of the two automatic promotion places. And that’s not my heart ruling my head. Why am I so confident of promotion? Even though, until yesterday, it had been a quiet transfer window for Alex Neil, he has, along with Newcastle, the strongest squad in the Championship, one that is packed with invaluable experience.” Iwan Roberts is confident of promotion and Norwich City will bounce straight back to the Premier League.

In 22 seasons of the Premier League there have been 69 relegations, involving 36 clubs (not including Wimbledon). Of those 69 there have been: - 20 instances of promotion back at the first attempt - 7 have required 2 seasons - 2 have required 3 seasons - 2 have required 4 seasons - 13 have required between 5 and 9 seasons - 1 required 15 seasons - 24 clubs which were once in the PL are still trying to get back (such as Ipswich 14 years, Derby 8 years, Leeds 12 years, Nottingham Forest 17 years, Bradford & Coventry 15 years, Sheffield Wednesday 16 years). Norwich has been relegated 3 times before. It only took only one season to get back via the play-offs in 2015 but the other two promotions took 6 years and 9 years. Aston Villa has not been relegated from the PL before. They were relegated from the old First Division in 1986/87. They got promotion back at the first attempt. Newcastle was relegated from the PL in 2008/09. They got promotion back at the first attempt. Whichever way you look at it Newcastle and Aston Villa are much bigger clubs than Norwich. Yes but what about the parachute payments, I hear you ask? Newcastle and Villa get them too (so will next seasons relegated clubs). And there must have been some in previous seasons but it doesn’t seem to have done much good to the likes of QPR, Fulham, Cardiff, Reading, Wigan etc. Those that think that it’s going to be easy to get back up to the PL are confusing “hope” with “think”. Probably the same people who thought that we would not get relegated. The odds for Norwich promotion are about 11 to 4 according to the bookies, that’s a probability of 27%. There is every chance that promotion could take 4 or 5 years.

The off-on, illegal(?) approach issues are covered in another thread but what about the football issues. A few thoughts: Another small midfielder (5ft 7 1/2ins) to add to our collection. Looks to have had two serious ankle injuries last season. So only 3 matches in the 2015/16 Premier League all as sub; 5 mins, 45 mins and 17 mins. Quite right footed, seems to do best playing attacking midfield, central or on the right. Doesn’t look a natural replacement for Brady, looks more like a Hoolahan clone (except with a better shot and scoring record), or a swap for Redmond (if he’s got the pace). Note that Dele Ali, only a 20 year old, but 6ft 2ins, big and strong for only £5 million (player exchange Pritchard + £3m for Ali, great business Spurs). Bids for Brady around £12m and Olsson £4m rate Pritchard at about £2-3m. For £8m he needs to play week in week out. Other must pick players are Tettey, Howson and Brady (if he stays). So maybe 4-1-4-1 Jerome Brady Naismith/Hoolahan Howson Pritchard Tettey Or 4-2-3-1 with Howson deeper. No regular place for Maddison, Canos, Thompson or the Murphys (all too inexperienced anyway). And we still need a striker or two. And we need left-sided players if it’s necessary to replace Brady and/or Olsson.

Alex Neil quote: "No one has come in and offered any money for Timm."   Wonder if that changes as a result of Archant’s “attention all clubs” advert.   Offers invited for Swiss international centre back. Fully recovered from knee injury, good runner, fit and ready to go. Experienced 28-year-old. Premiership quality, loyal and hard working.    

Sounds familiar. 1.       Rumour has it than Norwich are interested in xxxxxx 2.       Pinkun posters mostly agree that xxxxxx is a class act / exciting prospect (delete as appropriate) 3.       Promotion rivals are also linked with a bid for xxxxxx 4.       Xxxxxxxx signs for promotion rival 5.       Pinkun posters mostly agree xxxxxx was rubbish anyway / slow as a boat / injury prone etc etc so we didn’t really want him anyway   

[quote user="Nuff Said"]Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary? Country''s in crisis.[/quote]   Never mind we have the multi -talented Emily Thornberry to hold Boris to account. So at least Labour’s not in crisis.  

And in appreciation Clive Lewis invited to join the NCFC board to sort out our defence issues (now that Glastonbury has finished).   

Well done Wales, deservedly the best of the best of the home nations.   Two thoughts on the state of home nation’s football: 1) The Wales team celebrating England’s defeat by Iceland highlighted a big issue with their ambitions.  The rivalry seems more important than the chance of winning anything.  So it basically shows up our joint limitations.   2) I didn’t think I would say this but now it really makes sense to have a single Great Britain team.    A few Welsh players would improve our overall chances and we could complete on a level playing field with the likes of Germany and France.  Swansea and Cardiff play in our leagues so what is the problem? We could also put a team in the Olympics.

[quote user="Yellowfuture"]I doubt many shared the misery of English fans after such an inept performance from a team managed by the highest payed manager in the tournament. I support Wales but would always get behind the England team, unless they are playing Wales. It was very hard to support them when they played with such lack of passion for their shirt however. Unfortunate footage, but I suspect you would find every nation in the world celebrating a win for David over Goliath! Come on Wales !!!![/quote]   Yeah right! So when England plays Germany all the Scots, Welsh and Irish are rooting for the underdog. Just ask yourself why the Welsh team celebrated Iceland’s win. Was it just support for the underdog or support for anyone who plays England? They were delighted to see us go out because it meant that they were then top of the UK+NI pile (by the way the Republic of Ireland is not in the UK). If it was simply a case of supporting our Welsh brothers and the soft core fans then fine. But that means supporting the Welsh hard core and the Welsh team and clearly they just don’t like us. Those supporting Wales, ask your self would I support that team in blue down the road against say Man U in the FA cup?