kirku

Agree. Cold War 2.0 is probably the best outcome - the others are much much worse

They've already lost 4-5 SU-34s, I think, and that's their top line strike fighter - for exactly this reason. One of the pilots (who looks about 20 stone..) ejected and was captured. The reason it was notable is that he was part of a promo photoshoot for the Russian bombardment of Syrian cities alongside both Putin and Assad. I hope Ukraine send him straight to The Hague. There's also a huge disparity in the training that Russian pilots get in comparison to NATO. Low flying hours, training in pairs instead of large formation, lack of advanced simulator training. Some analysts have started to question whether the VKS is capable of complex air operations. Then you add in their inability to impose SEAD...

"Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." Perhaps the Z stands for "zero", the value of their currency?

Very good and well laid out thread above. He has done others and they're always worth 5 minutes of your time

They're vehemently opposed to NATO given the intervention over Bosnia. So now they're backing the Russians while they bomb Ukrainian cities. Yeah, me neither.. It does show the power of Putin's anti NATO rhetoric (alongside the obvious historical links)

Sadly the ceasefire in Mariupol wasn't adhered to, according to the Ukranians.

Below is my latest understanding of some topics (hat tip to Farke) - caveat, I am far from an expert and am clearly extremely biased. ------ There are unconfirmed reports that Russia is trying to mobilise its internal police to be sent to Ukraine and is also sending more hardware from eastern military units. One reading of the police mobilisation is to help with occupation and another is that they're getting desperate for man power. It all seems very odd for a country with a claimed 900k troops, but it is also extremely strange that we've seen conscripts used already - given domestic political considerations and, well, they're next to useless and it's illegal (more of a PR issue than a moral consideration). This is somewhat linked to the armour that's been seen shipping out of the east which has largely been described as "relics that should be in a museum" with some of the models having entered service in the 60s. We've seen what Javelins, NLAWS and Bayraktars have done to the modern equipment - this stuff hasn't got a hope. There have been well over 500 pieces of Russian armour that have been visually confirmed as losses already, and that's just the stuff that's been posted/provided to social media - the real total will be much higher. For perspective, the UK currently has 227 tanks (Russian losses aren't just tanks, though). As we saw in the early days of the war, awful logistics and tactical blunders have been commonplace. A staggering amount of hardware has been abandoned and seized, with the Ukrainian military claiming that their seizures over the last week are higher than their yearly procurement - effectively making Russia their biggest military supplier. It is unclear if all this armour has been abandoned due to poor morale or a lack of supply. There have been at least two incidents of new Pantsir AA systems being abandoned due to poor maintenance and cheap tyres (!). With $900 tyres Chinese tyres fitted to $20m vehicles. The convoy that has been headed to Kyiv for days now is still there because they're getting attacked and have run out of fuel. The road they chose only has two lanes and so it's now likely more Moscow traffic jam than military convoy. The Russian military still hasn't got air superiority over Ukraine and it's strike capability has been so poor (especially in regards to precision strikes) that some commentators are questioning whether they can conduct complex strike packages. Their low level of training in comparison to NATO and very limited supply of precision munitions is a contributing factor. It is very likely that the military in general is running low on cruise missiles and they will not be able to resupply as their supply chain relied on multiple foreign companies which are now sanctioned Bellingcat, who helped piece together Russian culpability for the downing of flight MH17 during the 2014 invasion, have said that their sources indicate the Russians are much closer to running out of logistics than we may think. Their intelligence also indicated that Russian generals are unlikely to deploy strategic nuclear weapons unless there's a ground war in Russia itself. However, they also stated that Putin (rather than the military) has talked about the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Economically, things are going to be worse than many experts predicted before the sanctions were unveiled. The Russian economy produces little besides energy which it has clearly sought to weaponise. The commentary that the Russian economy will be easily able to pivot to China is less likely than it may appear - and China is much more likely to use any deals to its advantage. Russian alleged acquiescence to China's request for the invasion after the Olympics is a sign of weakness as they had planned on invading earlier - which would've resulted in better troop morale and less equipment being literally stuck in the mud. That China would show such utter disregard for Russian interests shows the strategic level of their rivalry. China will leverage this position hard, during Deng Xiaoping notably blamed imperialist powers for suppressing China while it was weak, and it was Russia and the USSR who took the most advantage of this situation. The Chinese have long memories and who is economically vulnerable at the moment? This might just be me huffing hopium, but there are some positive signs in there, amongst all the horrifying indiscriminate attacks on civilians - which sadly may increase as they get more and more desperate for a breakthrough or for good news to tell Little Vlad.

Better sanctions than our government have managed

Professor Maxim Mironov (I nicked the English translation)

Wow, and here's me thinking RTB couldn't look any more pathetic.

Gets the big calls right, according to himself

Preferably not!

Surely "defensive" is the very definition of "holding ground"?

Indeed - but I also agree with the rebuttal: "you can't hold ground with missiles". And we're saying this during (I'm guestimating here) the largest armoured assault in Europe since WW2

He and his staff have left

Here's a bit of tax-based levity: https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/804441.html "Ukraine's National Agency for the Protection against Corruption (NAPC) has declared that captured Russian tanks and other equipment are not subject to (tax) declaration."

We used to.. Fairly sure the army have complained they don't have enough tanks, the air force don't have enough planes and the navy don't have enough anti-ship missiles... Isn't Johnson on record saying the days of "tank battles in Europe" are long gone, from about 3-4 months ago?

Details of American units and seems to indicate their intentions on Moldova/Transnistria

Land border, one would imagine. Hungary yesterday refused to allow weapons to transit through the country so I assume this means land transport rather than closing of airspace

This. Sadly.

Reports that Belarus have also joined the invasion

Good thread here from a commentator with a strong background and track record. Worth a read.