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king canary

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Everything posted by king canary

  1. king canary

    Audrick Kramer - Steven Naismith's agent?

    The Pink'Un would be mad to let THIS 30 year old poster move to WOTB.
  2. king canary

    Audrick Kramer - Steven Naismith's agent?

    Pretty laughable article and a super weird website that seems obsessed with putting peoples ages in their headlines.
  3. king canary

    Song for Marco

    There has got to be something to the Spiderman tune surely? Stieperman Stieperman Does whatever a Stieper can (I don't know, I'm not a songwriter)
  4. king canary

    Whoscored.com team of the week...

    What I would say is that I'll take a team of the week like this with some methodology behind it rather than the usual guff you get from some random ex player who has usually just picked 10 players who scored a goal and a keeper who kept a clean sheet.
  5. king canary

    Whoscored.com team of the week...

    There was an excellent Guardian Football Weekly awhile ago with Ted 'Mixed Knuts' Knutson, the former head of analytics with Brentford. He said that the two positions it is extremely hard to analyse statistically is central defense and goal keeper.
  6. king canary

    Whoscored.com team of the week...

    Yeah, I stopped taking these seriously when they put Seb Bassong in the team of the week the week we lost 5-4 to Liverpool.
  7. We're really bloody good, if you ignore penalty taking.
  8. king canary

    Bolton v Norwich

    I honestly think Farke likes to play up knocks on press conferences to keep other teams on their toes.
  9. #ncfc DF: 'first 20 mins killed us. This is a difficult place to come. I thought their pen was a complete joke from the ref.' #ncfc DF: 'We get a pen and it could a red card for their player.' Not sure I agree about a red for Pearson though.
  10. Exactly that. That is his cumulative total throughout the game- so it could mean he had 3 chances that were each worth 0.1 or one chance worth 0.3 etc etc. The fact he's Ipswich's highest XG rating suggests they never created any notable chances.
  11. This graph gives an idea... Pukki's first (where the second yellow dot is) looks like it is given an XG of about 0.2 or 0.3. You can see from how our XG rating leaps after the first goal that was clearly considered a much higher % chance.
  12. It depends if you define time wasting as cheating- Rudd was certainly time wasting (if it was just frustration he's not punching it away from all the Norwich players) with what he did but it is hardly the awful act some of those clutching their pearls on here are making out.
  13. king canary

    T&T - our L&G?

    The L&G problem was much more about having to leave out one of your two best midfielders- I'd say the question of whether we can play Leitner and Vrancic is more of a Lampard/Gerrard equivalent. For what it is worth I think they can play together, just the style of play has to change- maybe move Buendia more central, go a bit more direct at times etc etc.
  14. I don't know, I haven't seen the stats- not many places post Championship XG so it is difficult to say. Apparently it was 0.8 v Ipswich though. It certainly isn't perfect and to be honest it took ages to get my head around it but once I had it properly explained to me it made much more sense.
  15. Get a grip- we had Stiepermann doing similar on Sunday and we wasted all the time possible v Sheffield United not long ago.
  16. As Bethnal says- it isn't about 'you should expect a goal from this chance.' It is about how high the likelihood is of each chance being scored and a cumulative total. So against Ipswich one site has our XG at 1.6 which suggested from the chances we had we should have expected between one and two goals. The fact we scored three suggests that our finishing was good and we made the most of the chances we had.
  17. This is why XG exists though- to actually try and put some form of qualifier on what is actually a 'good chance.' For me I completely disagree about the first goal v Ipswich- he has to take it first time from the edge of the area, under some pressure with basically one corner of the goal to aim at.
  18. So basically if he'd hit it entirely differently
  19. When people talk about expected goals or 'XG' it is a stat based on the % of a chance becoming a goal. Generally this number will have been settled on by looking at a large number of similar chances in terms of position, distance, covering defenders etc etc (all quite complex). So the goal first Pukki scored against Ipswich would have a pretty low XG rating as most of the time you'd expect it wouldn't go in- he hit it perfectly into the one part of the goal the keeper couldn't reach with pressure from a covering defender. Alternatively the chance he scored v Leeds would have a very high XG- basically an open goal from 6 yards, you'd expect him to bury that most times.
  20. I think you're misunderstanding my point. I'm not saying I expect him to score every chance or even that he should have scored more yesterday. What I'm saying is that Pukki has been exceptional at taking low % chances and turning them into goals (his first v Ipswich is a great example), last night those similar low % chances didn't go in, which is entirely to be expected.
  21. I'd argue last nights game kind of showed @westcoastcanary's point about XG. Last night Pukki had a couple of those decent but not great chances (when Buendia played him through and when the Preston defender underplayed the backpass for example) which we've been so reliant on him taking. This time he didn't and we struggled.
  22. king canary


    Do you think Buendia can play in the middle of the 4-1-4-1 formation? If so I'd be tempted to bring Cantwell in for Trybull and shift Emi into the middle. I suspect though that we might see Rhodes from the start v Bolton- if we're not able to pass out from the back without Vrancic or Leitner then having his presence up top allows us to go a bit more direct and bring Marco and Pukki into play that way,
  23. Notts County v MANSFIELD- away win In our game I'll say over 2.5 goals.
  24. king canary

    Promotion - the Fulham way....

    I think in the Prem you need to name a certain amount of them in your 25 man squad but no restrictions in the 18- hence why teams like Chelsea and United have random English keepers as 3rd choice to make up the numbers. My point about home-grown though is more about preparing for dropping back down if we did go up. English players are expensive and it might be wise to grab a few when we have the budget. I mentioned players like Bradley Dack and Ezri Konsa in another thread, two 'home-grown' players who have Premier League potential that we couldn't afford currently but could if we went up.