Salopian

Sorry, but unless the defence can show more improvement the best I can see is 1-1.

My feeling is that he should be captain - I''m not sure if he barks instructions, but if does the team have needed it, but he certainly leads by example. There is no more committed player in the side, and with his pace, passing and shooting ability he is a good model for others to follow.

I was impressed by the fact that on a number of occasions he beat our defence and had scoring opportunities. His failure to score from at least three of them, however, was important in the final result. If he had taken one or two of them, I think it possible that our growing confidence could have been swept away, and the result very different. Doubtless the Brentford defence will come in for criticism, but Hogan''s failure must also. Would he be a good signing? On yesterday''s showing I am doubtful. However much work he does away from goal, his failure to convert chances was glaring. We have one or two strikers like this already!

We have now seen that there is little hope for promotion unless and until our defenders learn to defend. It is increasingly clear that they are our major problem. This means that they must maintain concentration until the final whistle, and not switch off as they have been doing. We are conceding too many late goals, when we used to be a team which was a threat until the whistle blew. It also means that they must be in position, tight on their man, and not wandering about, and firm in tackles. Finally it means that they must learn to head balls in competition with attackers. At the moment they are losing too high a proportion of heading duels. Question? Do we have a defender coach, and if so what is he doing? Are our players fully fit? Tired players are more likely to fail. Are our players committed and motivated? Or is it that our defenders are not just not good enough?

Last Saturday may prove to be a nadir, - we must hope so. Has there really been any real change during the season? We enjoyed a a series of wins which were achieved against clubs at the foot of the table and we had the delusion that we were at last showing our real ability. We were, but only occasionally. Now we have played one or two against teams in the upper reaches, and we don''t look so outstanding! Worse, managers seem to have now sussed us and know how to beat us. We scored a lot of goals admittedly, but always conceded plenty, and in some of the wins we were hardly outstanding and owed much to luck. You would hope that after so many games we would be showing consistency and quality, but it is difficult to see any real improvement in ability, commitment and concentration. If AN is to remain manager for much longer, he and his colleagues have a massive task - to pick our best team which knows what is wanted and where individuals will not switch off or give in. I like the man, but things are not working ou at the moment!

The problem as I see it is twofold: 1) of the back four, only Klose is a very good defender. The others are very good going forward, but have limitations in defending. AN seems to be of the same position in using Tettey to protect them, and in expecting his wingers to perform defensive duties in addition to racing forward. 2) There seems at times a lack of concentration, with players not staying in position. The late goals we concede seems to suggest this. The art of defending is difficult, and may explain why top defenders fetch high transfer fees. Many teams now have pace down their wings, which leaves slower defenders - Martin and Whittaker, for example, struggling. The effectiveness of the Murphy lads this season has demonstrated how difficult it is to defend against pace. If Pinto can develop his heading and his defensive abilities we could have a solution on the right.

There could, of course, be even more surplus, when Maddison returns and if we sign a player or players.

We can score, but unless AN can sort out the defence we also fail in defence. I''ll go for 2-2, but a defeat is a possibility.

I think that Woodman is about right - no Naismith, despite the Scottish connection, in the starting team. The only question is whether Ruddy did enough to threaten McGovern. I think a low scoring game, 1-0 to us or 2-1.

If we play at our best for the whole game, then a win is in prospect, but I expect a narrow defeat, say 1-2.

There seem to be three main problems:P 1) Failing to convert chances, and put us out of sight of opponents. Clearly Jerome is the main offender but most blazed high and not handsome on Tuesday and before. I think that there may be a little improvement here, but not much. I would have to exempt the Murphy lads. Some very good approach work is spoiled by hasty shooting and missed headers. We have to be ruthless and efficient. 2) Defenders seem to lose concentration and get out of position, or are too slow in anticipation. Nobody closed down the Wigan scorer. 3) Mental resolution seems to break down too easily and be replaced by panic. There seems to be an on-field leadership deficiency. It may be that the tiredness problem and lack of game fitness is an element in one or more of these. Currently we are scoring almost enough, but defensive frailty makes us concede goals which we shouldn''t. AN seems to admit this game after game.

I suspect that while many recognise his contribution, they are disappointed by his regular missing of opportunities, especially headed ones. Whatever his contribution in te other parts of his game, he is there mainlyto score goals. If he did convert some of the glaring misses, I suspect that there would be other clubs sniffing around. While goals continue to come from other members of the team, we can laud him for 20 goals a season, but...

Tettey is one of the team who will struggle to play two games in a week. Not sure, but I seem to remember that there was talk of his knees being a problem.

Given our recent vulnerability to crosses, I would give Bennett a slight edge, and I like his no-nonsense style. It is to be hoped that he will learn from Klose.

There may be good reason for some of the gloom: 1) We failed to sign a prolific striker, and although we can expect goals to come from elsewhere in the side it is not clear that we have consistency at "number 9". Jerome has scored 3 in 6, but has also missed chances about as regularly. His contribution to the team is immense, in work rate and willingness, but we need to demolish teams with goals. Oliveira seems much of the same. 2) We failed to strengthen the defence, with the result that despite our high position our goal difference is merely +2. We are found out too often by pace and vulnerable to high balls and crosses in particular. Cardiff had enough chances to have beaten us, but fortunately missed many. 3) At our best we are capable of beating almost anyone, but there are times when we do not turn up, Birmingham for instance, and much of the time our forward progress is in fits and starts, and sometimes far too slow. If you are a fan you have to hope that somehow things will pick up, but they didn''t last season.

If AN picks a "young" team able to move the ball quickly and also to shoot from distance, (Maddison has gone of course), then I''ll go for 3-0. Otherwise if its the slow, slow cross-field passing set then I''ll go for 1-0 or 2-1.

We are playing well below our best - everyone agrees on this, and many feel that we have an imbalance on the field. We are playing Tettey as a defensive cover in front of the back four, but yesterday we could have lost from high crosses from wide - other teams will have noted this other vulnerability. I have to say that while McGovern is probably more agile than Ruddy, the latter does seem to deal with crosses rather better. The other vulnerability is to pace, with Martin and Whittaker too slow. Many will feel that our best back four currently would be Pinto, Bennett, Klose, Olsson - perhaps we do not have to wait long before this combination is selected. If these play, we have an other dilemma. We have several good midfielders, but which ones do we pick? a) If the defence is more secure, can we afford to drop Tettey, or play him further forward? b) There is some overlap between Wes, Pritchard, Howson and Dorrans. (There are also Mulumbu, Godfrey and Thompson, etc.) Perhaps Wes and Pritchard are alternatives for the same forward position, and we can''t afford to play both together. c) If we are to play 4.4.2, who are to comprise the midfield four? Presumably AN will want to play at least one winger, probably one of the Murphy twins. Are the remainder to be some combination of Brady, Howson, Dorrans orTettey? We are wasting the talents of Howson if we play him on the wing, where he he less effective. He has fine control, picks a good pass and has several good shots in his locker, but from on on the wing? d) AN seems inclined to use a Murphy on the left wing, although with Olsson and Brady both available they would perform on the left presumably. There is no comparable person for the right wing except Canos, but then we would have to choose between Dorrans and Howson and Tettey! The two big issues would seem to be: 1) How can we improve our defensive capacity? Possibly Ruddy returning could leave us less vulnerable to crosses, especially if Klose is partnered with Bennett. If we can, could we pick two creative/attacking midfielders and use two wingers. 2) Are we settled with one striker and a number 10, whether Wes or Pritchard? Will the striker be the rather inconsistent Jerome (although he has scored 3 in 6)? If we do pick two creative midfielders, (as in point 1.), would there be as much need for a number 10, given that we would also have two wingers. There could be a case for having two strikers. (This does not seem the way of AN!) It has to be admitted that this is all speculation, and injuries, suspensions or loss of form could remove some of the dilemma, but we now have approaching a full staff and we have the leaking goals possibility. I''m sure that AN is thinking about this, even if it doesn''t keep him awake at night!

I find this a hard one. Will he persevere with Whittaker, Martin and Naismith- if so I see defeat, will Pinto be back, Olsson, even Pritchard, in which case a draw with the possibility possibility of a narrow win. I really do not understand his perseverance with players not up to it or else not caring enough. The result could be anything between 0-2 and 2-1

8th or 9th.

Part of me is disturbed by the thought that we could sell out to foreign billionaires who would impose their wills on everybody, even if they did supply enough cash to buy some good players. The alternative, the "family firm" with insufficient funds and perpetually "penny pinching" is so disappointing. It leaves me with the thought that even if we did gain promotion we would not be long among the big spenders. I will commend them for one thing - investing in youngsters. We could be challenging for promotion in three or four years, although I am not counting on this.

Surely Morris will understand that he is still learning his craft, even if he did play a few games at Hamilton. If he is the fourth striker, after Jerome, a.n.other and Oliveira, and Lafferty gone, injury or suspension will offer a prospect.

I''ll wait and see what happens - he''s used to Champ football, so should fit in quickly, but I hope that AN is justified in expecting another striker. If it''s Rhodes and Oliveira on loan, I would be happy with that.

I think that opposing managers have sussed our game plan. Certainly Ipswich stopped our progress down the wings and forced us into the crowded central band. We should have been able to deal with this, but our passing and movement was not quick enough. I am still waiting to see if Wes and Naismith can ever operate together and with Howson surging forward.

10 or 1-1

For the first game at Blackburn I had a preliminary message with the team selection, and then an alert for each of the five goals. On Saturday against Sheff Wed nothing came, and my earlier pleasure has diminished a little.