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Hansterbubble

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Posts posted by Hansterbubble


  1. That’s really funny Drazen, can I join your support group!

    As this is a safe space can I admit to filling 2 of the recent NCFC albums this winter and then buying a third. I decided to keep that as a mint empty album as even I started to think it was getting a bit out of hand. The Norwich City FC Sticker group on Facebook are a great bunch and will help anyone who is collecting get the last few they need. I know you can get them from Archant but swapping your way to completion is sooo satisfying.


  2.  

    10 hours ago, Feedthewolf said:

    With the Euros fast approaching, I was wondering if anyone else on here (or their kids/grandkids/other relatives) are collecting the Panini Euro 2020 stickers?:

    I’ve bought the Euro 2020 Tournament album last week although haven’t yet put any stickers in it. I will definitely be collecting them and very happy to swap with anyone on here in the coming weeks.

     

    10 hours ago, AJ said:

    I assume the album was made last year and then just held back until the tournament date was rearranged, as a result Hanley wasn't in the Scotland squad at the time

    Panini put out the Euro 2020 Preview album last year, with the teams that had qualified in it. The playoffs hadn’t been played when it was released so there are a few pages in the back that set out the possible pathways, but no stickers for those teams. I think the Preview album was a bit of a money spinner for Panini or possibly a future rare collectible, who knows. I bought it as I have a bit of a sticker book addiction and needed a fix!

    Just be careful to buy the Tournament sticker packs, especially if you buy from eBay or online, as they look very similar to the Preview sticker packs at a glance. The Tournament packs are mainly orange with a bit of blue, the Preview packs are almost all blue but both say Euro 2020 on them.

    • Thanks 1

  3. 6 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

    Just put a fiver on Norwich/MK Dons win double.

    £23.37 to PUPs pot if it happens.

    Come on you Dons💪

    What a cracking idea Nutty. I’ve followed your lead, although Bet365 only giving me a measly £22.68 return for the PUPs pot.


  4. I’m more like to take an interest in something ITFC related as they are our local rivals, so there’s a connection and relevance there.
     

    I’m just watching Millwall v Swansea which is pretty unusual for me as I almost never watch games unless Norwich are involved. I don’t watch Champions League games or the Premier League as they seem largely irrelevant to me and haven’t watched a Cup Final in years. I still get a bit excited about England games, especially those in the big tournaments. I’d never really thought about it but suppose I am a NCFC fan rather than a fan of football per se. I really like this forum, especially the posts about possible players, as it provides a bit of wider knowledge and perspective that I don’t always have. Some of the level of knowledge on the PUPs posts is amazing, and if you read this I’ll be back next season Nutty.

     

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  5. 20 minutes ago, GMF said:

    The point I was trying to make previously related specifically to the context of your comment, “but little else in the way of return to the owners” is that D&M and MF between them own just over half the preference shares, but there's over 1,900 other preference share holders who own the remaining 48% of the preference shares.

    Yes, it’s small beer and, yes, I’m aware that preference shares have no voting rights either, together with the distinction between ownership and control.

    Ok, understood. I suppose my context was about investors wanting a return, and our investors not really taking a return, rather than specifically just about Delia and MJW but as I’ve said before I see how you get there.


  6. I’ve just read through the accounts again and GMF is right, as the accounts do state that no decision had been made as to whether the dividend would be paid due to Covid uncertainties.

    I hadn’t realised that Delia and MWJ held 53% of the ordinary shares (327,109 of 616,913 issued) and whilst that does give them control I had assumed their interest was much larger than this. The accounts show Michael Foulger holds 98,200 and the other directors around 404 ordinary shares between them. To save me going to Companies House does anyone know who owns the remaining 191,200 ordinary shares?


  7. 2 hours ago, GMF said:

    Making provision for it in the accounts doesn’t actually mean that they paid the preference share dividend (which, by the way, should go to all preference share holders, not just the owners). 😉

    Were they not paid then GMF? I couldn’t see anything in the accounts to say it was being deferred, and the cash flow statement shows previous years dividends were paid, so I assumed they either were paid or would be paid on the dividend date. I didn’t check further as either way it’s small beer, which essentially was my point.
     

    I think you are confusing ownership and control, or at least thinking only of Delia and MWJs as the owners as they have the controlling interest. I see how you get to that, but it’s not quite right. The shareholders are the owners of the company, the different share classes mean holders have different rights, in terms of return, repayment in a winding up and voting at general meetings. It looks as if the “A” and “B” preference shares contain no voting right so holders can exert no direct control over the club. The ordinary shares will have voting rights providing the holders with control over the company. 


  8. Badger makes a good point, investors want a return. I rather like our self sustaining model and a quick look at last years accounts showed a small £63k dividend being paid but little else in the way of return to the owners. Hopefully, that means ant profit gets spent on players, coaches, infrastructure etc that make the club stronger rather than on making someone richer.

    My pal supports Brighton and has developed a huge sense of paranoia about being relegated. He spends ages worrying about it and looking over his shoulder. Our last few years have been up and down but we seem to be making steady progress and it’s been a lot of fun along the way. It doesn’t seem to me to be broken so why worry about trying to fix it?

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  9. 7 minutes ago, kirku said:

    Burnley were recently valued at about £250m. How much and how long would it take for Ipswich to get to that level? 

    I scribbled £150m on a fag packet, and that's assuming everything goes well

    Thanks Kirku, you’re right that’s not much is it. Mind you they do have that incredibly valuable intangible asset, their “history” to add in the mix. 🥴😬

     

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  10. Thanks Purple, that analysis made me wince a bit and I did note that the return made by the pension scheme last year was only 0.8% well under the 3% roughly that they state they need to make. It does suggest that the ‘deep pockets’ quote might be a bit over stated!

    Ive no idea of where the money will come from and like you I’m not sure I want to dig any further. It’s always hard to follow the chain through to the real owners, but at least on first blush it does look like the pension scheme will be stumping up the money.

    I don’t think it is anything nefarious. I’m pretty sure the pension scheme would be allowed a (very) few risky bets like this. It’s a bit like me putting £10 on the lottery. It won’t affect my day to day spending or my long term savings, but there is a small chance I could win a life changing amount. 


  11. 5 minutes ago, kirku said:

    Are you not concerned with the simple fact that pension funds are required to provide a return on investment?

    How do you conceive of a situation where all this investment you outline results in the return? It simply doesn't make sense

    It does if you think of the asset mix. They’ve got most of their money in very safe, liquid assets such as AAA rated equities and Govt securities and these provide the ‘normal’ return that they need to pay benefits. I guess this is a high risk asset which they will hold to make a super profit. If they can get to the premier league in 5 years with only small investment and then sell they may make 3x or even 5x asset value. I’ve no idea what that might look like in reality, but to illustrate my point what they want is to make £200-£500m return on the sale, not get steady 5% return each year, which over 5 years might give a £20-£50m return. 

    It would be the small investment bit that would worry me as a fan? How much will they spend and will it be on players, which is risky, or on infrastructure which is less risky and hopefully will increase the asset value long term? How long will they wait for their return? If they do find a gem will they reinvest the funds into the club or take it out as a dividend? 

    Thanks Chris, $41bn is a lot of noughts and it’s easy to misread! 

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  12. 3 hours ago, chrismakin said:

    Town fan here, I come in peace.

     

    Just to help with some 'thoughts'

    The Arizona Pension 'pot' comes in at around £440 Billion,   this obviously won't the the figure available,  but what ever the investment -  it's a small part of the pension funds.  I think apart from Prem being the overall target, it will be academy -  potentially cat 1 and rumours of moving it closer to London,   Then the opportunity to purchase land around Portman Road, Cardinal Park etc as Brett Johnson has a lot of experience in building sports complexes.   It'll be a long term plan  but for the fans, it will just be nice to see -  hopefully a more structured club and not 1 man trying to be everything and maybe some point again we can have a Derby game, regardless of  result. 

    Regarding out debt,  all but £400,000 has effectively been written off. 


    It’s hard to pin down exactly who the ultimate investor is, but it is thought to be the Arizona State Pension Scheme. I had a quick look at it yesterday evening and it’s facts and figures page shows it has total fund value of $41.8bn. Not sure where the figure referred to above of $440bn comes from. Apparently the fund pays out around $1bn in benefits each year so you can get a rough idea of what return they need. 

    I expect this is a high risk investment for them, as most of their money is tied up in equities, gilts and property to generate returns, and provide liquidity. So they do have deep pockets, but also strict governance around how they deploy their funds. Unlike some wealthy investors this isn’t a vanity project and I’d be surprised to see them throw money at it. The feeling I get from the press is that they think they have experience within their ranks that will enable the club to develop, but I couldn’t immediately see anything that suggested how they would approach that. As I said before the danger with these sorts of investments is that the investor is there solely for profit, generated from a rise in asset value. If they can’t generate that they lose interest and if they do they sell it.

    Link to the pension scheme is here  https://www.azasrs.gov/content/facts-figures.


  13. If your were an investment manager for the pension scheme, how would you pitch this to the investment strategy board? Kirku and Tom make some good points, as it looks as if the first couple of years it will make big losses as you clear out old staff, buy in new players, appoint new managers and coaches. So definitely more investment needed in the short term, but what’s expected in return in terms of the on the pitch results and in what time frame? What if that doesn’t happen, how do you keep the investment going?

    Putting money into our academy, facilities and coaching gives us an ability to make money from something other than just promotion and has given us a solid financial base and contributed to our football success. It’s been a good model for us and as first movers we’ve had a real advantage with it. Be interesting to see if Ipswich follow suit or go down more traditional pathways.


  14. I think Purple is right and that the pension scheme can hold a number of riskier assets without running into Regulatory issues. I was just eating lunch and wondering what their investment strategy will be?

    They will want a return on their investment but as others have said, the asset base is thin, so no players or lucrative land to sell, so it feels unlikely to be short term gains. The ownership stake means it’s more than just about making some interest on loans, and profits are too erratic to make a good dividend stream, so it must be about inflating the asset value by reaching the premier league. So far so obvious I’d say, but what’s the magic recipe for doing that? How long does it take, how much more do you risk (financially) to get there and how do you get the right structure and personnel to do that? It will be interesting to see how these questions resolve in the next few months and how well that aligns with what the fans want.

    You can see how it might work if things go well and some momentum builds, but that’s not easy to do. I remember watching the Sunderland Netflix show, where Ellis Short, the US owner at the time, had lost interest in the club as an investment and didn’t seem to want to sell or to support it. On the surface it seems Marcus Evans was doing the same. I guess it’s good to get new money in, but does that break the cycle or will this investor find the job to big and fall back into being disinterested in the club in the longer term? 



     

     

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  15. I’ve said for a while that I’ve been impressed by the focus and professionalism the team has shown, game after game after game. It that consistency that has given us such a commanding position.
     

    Tonight’s game was superb to watch and a fantastic way to celebrate our progress and success. I’m really enjoying the moment. I’m not sure I understand your perspective.

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  16. I think Sellotape is the brand name (I’m not sure if this is true, but the story is that they changed the C in Cellotape to an S so the name could be registered as a trademark). Cello strings have been around for a long, long time, so Deborah definitely won’t be in. 😊🙂

    I bought some double sided sticky tape the other day and that is pretty impressive stuff!

    Back to football. I’ve been impressed by the approach to the last 5 or so games. It’s been focussed and highly professional and in the Forest game we controlled the game excellently. I see no reason for the approach and philosophy to change, and we’ve got a terrific points cushion so every reason to be positive about the final outcome.

     

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  17. 48 minutes ago, essex canary said:

    Putting health first needs to include wider issues like cancer, mental health, domestic abuse etc. Fine if they do that.

    I suspect that a ground half or one third full could be a factor for a chunk of next season. Allowing better outcomes for smaller clubs ought to be the priority.

     

    I agree especially with the last part.
     

    Of course we all want to get back to games, and as an Norfolk exile that will mean me visiting my local non league club where average attendances are typically around 50% of capacity.

    So getting fans back is important, but if you want better outcomes for small clubs then isn’t the answer for football to address the structural issue with the way the game is organised so more money trickles down to the lower leagues? I say this with no expectation of that actually happening of course!

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