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That isn't what Burnley did. They went with the two steps forwards, one step back approach we are trying. They hadn't been in the top flight since the mid-70s. Got to the PL in 2008-09 and got relegated straight away. Got promoted again after four seasons, didn't overspend to try to stay up and got relegated straight away, aiming to build slowly without being tied down with high-wage players. And the next time they stayed up and have styed up, and probably will this season.

I think in part the issue with the 'top 26' idea is that it provides a ready-made excuse for the lack of investment we saw this summer. If we go up, don't spend any money and then come straight back down it is still in the plan.

I'm with King Canary here, but I also understand why lake distric canary would feel like he does about the statistics. They can be frustrating. They suffer from inflation; They're widely used, but rarely understood. Signal vs. noise. You'll not get any help from them unless you also understand the context. The thumb rules, nuts and bolts, the recent happenstances and philosophy of the team. The fact is that they are nothing but facts. How useful they are depend on what you're trying to use them for and in what context. Are you looking for objectivity or validation? I'm not an expert, but I've realised in these past few months I've tried to reconcile the seeming disparity between Norwich City's performance and the "expected" side of stats; the xGs, the xGAs etc, that it is exercise in futility to predict the outcome of any particular match with these numbers. It is almost as difficult to point to any single factor that you have to change in order to achieve better result. Take Teemu Pukki and Emi Buendia for example. What would we make of the fact that Emi has assisted 4 of Teemu's 9 open play goals? Is it because he creates a lot for Teemu, or does Teemu move in such a way that he allows Emi to find him? Are they two great players playing together, or are they great, because they play together? Certainly the one time Teemu was out (against ManU), the game was an exercise in futility and frustration for Emi. And when Emi was cooling off, Teemu was feeding off scraps. The problem with looking at only the game and relying on your judgment is that you get the narrative front and center: You lose -> wasted chances, costly mistakes. You won -> you took your chances, inconsequential mistakes. The reality is that it may very well have been toss of a dice that did or didn't go your way. The implication being there isn't necessarily anything fundamentally *wrong* with the team. The data would help you balance your narrative. You grab a torch and pitchfork and go after the miserly manager? Or you shrug it off with your mates at the pub with the help of a couple beers? The problem with stats on the other hand is that you get "objectivity" without context. For example, how is it possible a team that lags its opposition's xGs, generally out-scores them throughout the season? The context might explain that they have an elite striker who consistently outperforms his expected goals. And how does a team that underperform its xGs severely, nonetheless is solid mid-table points-wise? Perhaps they have a cracking defence that outperforms its xGAs. Or perhaps they have an elite GK who that season can't seem to get out of the ball's way even if he tried to. You go bet large sum of money expecting a convergence to the long term data average? Or do you bet on the team continuing its seemingly freakish streak?

It’s funny that you edited that post but left in all the mouse brain grammar and spelling mistakes 🤣

.......and I get accused of a lack of patriotism

WBA, Stoke were, and now some Burnley supporters are, assuming they are top flight. So then it became a we don't like the style of football served up. Now look at the first two names. Having to restart all over again. WBA making a decent fist after initially sacking a manger when they were 4th. Stoke have a lot further to go. Now two Burnley fans I know have both said I don't like watching their style of play. What next? Play as open as us? I don't think Dyche would go for that. So I would suggest that even the top 26 will have several comings and goings in the next few years. And if we manage to stay in that elite, playing as we are, I for one will not complain.

Coaching staff with their initials on their track suits. For who's benefit is that?

Personally not interested in us doing a Burnley , they're style of football is bad too watch at least we're entertaining.😄

Twelve days of Christine completely overwhelmed me. I lay in bed for hours afterwards in a state of what I can only describe as shock. I didn't cry. I felt beyond tears. The most affecting work of fiction I've ever seen .

Does play-acting, diving, acting like having a broken leg or a torn muscle and then jumping around on the sideline to be let on the field again, count as a little thing? One of the things that has made football less of a "man's game" is this prima donna stuff and falling over like you've just been stabbed , while the adversory has only brushed you aside...

People that moan about players wearing gloves when wearing a short sleeve jersey... I go running, I wear gloves without a long sleeve shirt when doing so. I also get extremely painful cold fingers but also find I get really hot if I wear a long sleeve shirt (or base-layer) with gloves and it makes the run uncomfortable. Hence gloves and short sleeve shirt and voila! Perfect. All this 'back in my day' BS. Yes, cos playing in pain or being uncomfortable makes you more of a manly player. 🙄

It sounds to me like a swipe at the inconsistency. Man City ran away with it and those comments were made. Liverpool are doing the same, yet its nothing but plaudits

Defenders (or any player) basically wrestling an attacking player away from the ball to let it roll out of play for a goal kick. More often than not would be given as a free kick anywhere else on the pitch, why are the rules different when attempting to shepherd the ball out of play?

Inside No. 9 is currently (and has been for many years) the best thing the BBC puts out. Seriously underrated show!

What little things in football grind your gears even though they are pretty meaningless overall? This topic popped into my head when I was watching the highly enjoyable highlights of Ipswich getting spanked by Peterboro. When they scored their first goal the scorer held his team mates who were running over to celebrate just so he could pull out some contrived dance move that he'd obviously spent ages planning. I don't know why but this sort of **** just sucks the spontaneity and enjoyment out of goal celebrations while also making the striker look like a bit of a douche who'd rather do this than celebrate with his team mates. Is this just me?

once upon a thursday 🙂 EDIT - was a Maundy Thursday, therefore Easter, though usually games were played Good Friday

Problem is someone like big Iwan wouldn't sign to play a bit part from the bench. We're unfortunate to have lost Tim Klose because he was our best centre back used like that towards the end of games.

I don’t think he gets the irony 😀

Did you have any luck finding the HARDtalk episode?

1-1!

Exactly.

Youd be closer if you were a footy player on 40 k+ a week. As mrs Merton asked debbie McGee " just what was it you found so attractive about the multi millionaire Paul Daniels. " Plenty of pretty average looking players have rather striking wags. Maybe the young rich men also have great sense of humour, sparkling personality , love long walks and cuddles by a log fire.....you know that's what they really want.

Yeah. I think it was actually said that although they both worked at Dortmund they were no t there at the same time and had, up until the meeting this season, never met each other. Maybe they are close Facebook friends...

So much good stuff here from Character Forming. I highlighted major points I wanted to comment on in aggregate, not necessarily specifically. Being a good striker isn't mainly about being better at taking advantage of any given situation. Being a good striker is about creating those situations that can be taken advantage of. A great striker should not only outperform his xGs, but he should create the kind of xGs for himself that pretty much anybody could score from. XGs are "flawed" in that they don't hold any more information than what is put in, and it always is up to discussion what is relevant to put in. The quality of the chance.. Yes, 1000 players may have scored 30% from that position, but what if there were 3 defenders and a goalkeeper in between...You probably should count that as relevant! But what if two defenders were flat on their **** and GK blood pouring from a cut above his eye? Maybe relevant...if you can put those to numbers? Well, what if the striker was left by his girlfriend the day before and couldn't sleep whole night? We know that's relevant, but let's see anyone put a number on it... If you keep putting information in the stat, you're going to get a whole lot of noise in addition to the signal. I heard Messi pukes before games. So it's normal for him. If Van Dijk puked before game, you'd worry he has food poisoning. Out of 1000 games, Van Dijk has food poisoning maybe once or twice. Messi pukes 100 times. You need 1000 years to get a sample size big enough. But anyone with brain will realize Liverpool is going to struggle a bit with a puking Van Dijk and if Messi pukes, he'll probably do a hattrick. Over time all things equal, random fluctuations balance. But long term might mean - like you said - longer than a single football season. And by that time you'd have a new coach and the abnormal stats persist and now you're thinking whether those stats were real all along, or whether the new guy has improved the team to match the abnormal stats, or whether the new guy is also just "lucky." It comforts me to know that what an absolute fertile mess they're trying to put the figures on. There is space for the magic. The speculation. The frustrations and joy, that all make football the beautiful game. There is no "solving" it. You will only find more interesting mysteries.

I go along the shelf's and get the best deal

Obviously having made your one truthful post for this year, you've resorted to just making stuff up again. @BigFish did not insist that exports to the EU are about to come to a sudden halt, or anything remotely like it - what he actually said were that they were 'at risk' which is quite obviously true if the UK ends up with WTO rules. They won't come to a sudden halt but their price will increase which means there is a risk (a very high risk in fact) that the volumes will decrease and/or the profit margin on them will be significantly reduced to remain competitive or both. And for the fresh fish products there is an additional risk in the customs delays. So as usual @BigFish is spot on whilst you are talking total cobblers. TBF you are right that PDOs, like pretty much everything else, work both ways but you are typically delusional if you think people are going to be queueing up to buy British Champagne & Parma Ham, especially as we will only have the right to sell them within the UK and to other countries outside the EU and who don't have trade deals with the EU which recognise PDOs - I'm guessing that isn't a particularly large or profitable market to get into even we had the expertise and experience to make the products in the first place.......

Its the Yorkshire tea leaf pickers I feel sorry for.

What's stupidly comical is your insistence that exports to the EU are about to come to a sudden halt - much in the same way that you told us planes would stop flying to Europe if we voted for Brexit. The Protected Designated of Origin is an EU scheme to protect large parts of European food production. Are you really so stupid as to believe the EU will not want to include PDO status in a trade deal with us? Because if they did, it would give the UK the right to sell products as Parma Ham and Champagne. This is obviously an example where their being bigger than us is a disadvantage. We actually would be better off without following PDO but back here in the real world it is obvious to serious commentators that PDO statutes will continue to be respected between the UK and the EU. Neither is Swindon anything of the sort of scare tactics that you just can't let go of, even though it's nearly four years since Project Fear began. The EU will continue to buy our beef and salmon. Despite our leaving the EU, our salmon sales to the EU increased by 25% in value last year. They will continue to buy them in the future because they are quality products, and better for us, we will be signing free trade agreements across the globe to open up new markets for our highly demanded goods.

Any sensible model should definitely factor this in, otherwise it's incompetence potentially leading to the poorhouse.

Now @SwindonCanary posted a tweet without evidence and failed to add any context, which is about par for the course. It has already been pointed out that double zero (zero quotas, zero tariffs) would decimate our farmers and fisherman's livelihoods if adopted. But there is more to consider, food pricing is not an issue in the UK because we have developed an efficient system which has driven down prices in real terms over decades. This allows the UK food industry to add value through higher standards & quality. What @SwindonCanary is unwittingly suggesting is closing the UK's farming and fishing industries, lowering standards/controls/quality and presenting the UK a food security problem. Once the UK is totally dependent on food imports what is to stop other countries taking advantage of this? This brings me to your own comically stupid post @Rock The Boat. Firstly, Stilton. As you are no doubt aware Stilton cheese is Protected designation of origin (PDO). This is an EU regulation, without a deal that will fall away and any country will be able to make Stilton cheese. Scottish Salmon exports are only around £500million, half of which go to the EU. That half will be at risk if there is no deal. When it comes to Beef 86% of exports go to the EU, again all at risk in the case of a no deal. Perhaps you (or someone like @paul moy) could explain to why there is such an obsession amongst the WTO rules/hard Brexit advocates for the UK's primary industries? As a developed country these are of neglible importance and will play little part in the countries future success. This rests with the secondary and services industries.

I think xG stats are an advance on the traditional stats we have - which are virtually a complete waste of time, e.g. possession % tells you which side had the ball for more of the game (duh) but nothing about how well the two sides were playing, and has no link to the outcome of a game at all. Football is unusual because teams don't score very often. If you compare with other team sports which revolve around producing a score, such as rugby or American football, in the other games it's normal to see the sides scoring 5+ times in a game between them (sometimes many more) and 0-0 is unheard of. Whereas football , even between a stronger and weaker team, often comes down to a handful of chances which realistically could go either way. IMO the reality is for many, if not most, football games in the top divisions, the result could easily have gone the other way down to how a tiny number of chances were taken (or not). It's pretty common that the losing team has a clear chance to score before going behind, which if taken could have changed the course of the game (we've only got to remember the passage of play in the Playoff final when we hit the bar, followed just after by Boro hitting the bar - if their shot had been a few cm lower, they'd have scored first and it would have been a totally different game from then on). Hence the attraction of xG stats, because they try to be an objective measure of how often, on average, you'd expect the striker to score a given chance. For a manager, it's tremendously important to know how often your team is creating those chances because (if the measure is accurate) in the long run you'd expect a higher xG level to translate into more actual goals and you have to accept that players will have mixed success in actually taking chances on any given day, whereas as long as your team are creating sufficient good chances, the goals will come - and as a manager you can influence that, you can't affect whether or not a striker takes a particular chance. I've always had 3 concerns about them though : 1. How much real life data do the stats really encompass to assess the chances of scoring in any given situation ? I'm not convinced they're that good at modelling the full picture as yet (although I expect that to improve). 2. Better strikers should surely do better than xG suggests, i.e. xG should measure the quality of the chance so a better striker should convert more often than the average. When this has been discussed, it seems like the difference is pretty marginal which makes me doubt how well xG is defined as yet. 3. "In the long run" is a crucial caveat, because I think the long run is probably longer than a football season !! Compare a baseball season which is something like 160 games - there's one point in "Moneyball" when the team aren't doing well and Billy Bean says they "haven't had enough games to be statistically significant" - this is something like 40 games into the season. And of course the team did come good there over the course of the season. In the Prem, they'd have already been relegated !! Last season there was a poster who used to come on here regularly and report (up until around Christmas when he disappeared which was a shame) that we were out-performing our xG stats for scoring but also conceding more than our xG against (whereas Leeds at that point were top and were much closer to their xG stats for/against). His conclusion was always that "sooner or later" he thought Pukki would stop overperforming (whereas he never expected our goals conceded to improve because that was down to "bad defending" which I always found a bit ironic). He disappeared from the forum so I'm not sure how our xG stats panned out for the rest of last season.

And if clubs insist on playing celebratory music when we score a goal, shouldn't they play something really sombre - like a funeral march - when the opposition score?

I reckon those who are unhappy with being Norwich now will also then be unhappy with our becoming a Burnley- if that could somehow happen - ie temporary mid-table PL residence , modest stadium, low profile, uninspiring play, big backers. if we somehow became a Newcastle - big profile , huge stadium, big support, (relatively) huge backing, unsuccessful football - then they would be unhappy we’re not Liverpool etc etc

You are a sick man

Steady. You’ll devalue the competition lol, but I completely agree with you.

I think it is clear that we task Buendia to create chances, his total shots have an xG of less than half a goal all season, indicating he is not missing good chances and that most of his shots are from distance or difficult in nature. Yes he wants and we need a goal, but using selective stats and stating he has not delivered is just another selective us of stats

xG & xGa is one indicator as to the effectiveness of a team to create chances and defend well - those with the right ratio will over time get the right results their performances deserve. It is not designed to provide any justification on a game by game basis nor will it will not guarantee a result and that is, of course, what ultimately matters. As with all stats it can not stand alone. The correlation with good xG numbers and final league table position is consistently strong because it is fact based rather than mumbo jumbo. One common shortfall is that a team taking an early lead sit back and the losing team pushes forward, surpressing the win sides xG and increasing the losing ones. The mumbo jumbo comes from the usual issues of stats being used in an inappropriately selective manner by the author - shoot the messenger not the news.

Yes it's clearly disrespectful. It is meant to be the flagship cup in the Country, and the Premier League leaders manager couldn't be arsed to show up because he was making a point about how his thoroughbred players are far too overworked. Player fitness is one thing, and I don't think too many people would have an issue with him playing a weakened side. However, to not even attend was a calculated decision by Klopp to show two fingers to the FA and the tradition of the FA Cup. Whether you agree with, empathise with, or even give a damn about the winter break is a moot point; it is fairly unarguable that consciously not turning up to what was a huge match for Shrewsbury, when there is clearly no illness or misfortune involved, is the very definition of disrespectful.

Man City have won it plenty of times in the last decade, Liverpool haven’t. There isn’t a VAR conspiracy, Liverpool have just been superior.

James Milner was there. Max respect to him for bothering.

This prison is a holiday camp myth needs to stop for starters. Suicides are through the roof. People are coming OUT with drug problems. Violence has surged. 23 hour lock up. Please have a conversation about this but don't rely on rubbish you have read in the press.

errrrr, English!! They don’t ALL come into the country as terrorists!!!

I would look forward to the comments on here that Farke was making the substitution too early if that happened. 😉

A chap called James Bartram commenting over at the Facts4EU.org site has the right idea/s regarding fishing: - We need 30% minimum of our seas to be strict 'no catch' zones. This needs to be done immediately. In these, and surrounding areas, fish stocks are likely to increase fourfold in 2-5 years. This increases catch numbers; and, as fish are easier to catch, reduces costs. - EU boats will have to pay a licence fee to fish in our waters (UK income). Too, all fish caught by EU boats must be landed in the UK (thus we get the valuable processing costs - further UK income). Priority to fish, quantities and species, will be given to the UK fleet - Only the crumbs will be left for EU boats (thus the UK fleet will expand over time, eventually eliminating EU boats from our waters). - Thus the catch of EU boats will be smaller, and their costs higher. This will make UK product much more competitive in the EU market, despite tariffs (Note: these tariffs will make fish even more expensive for European consumers!). Too, the supply of certain species the EU likes, will be controlled by the UK fishermen, effectively a monopoly supply situation. - We can expand our exports to other nations - I hear Japan likes eating fish. - Fish will also be a lot cheaper in the UK, and I would expect fish consumption (and variety, and consumer taste) in the UK diet to perhaps double in the UK within 10 years - (and from the healthier diet, [and too, more organic food], to greatly reduce the burden on the NHS). - The government can now also provide tax incentives to fishermen (and processors/exporters) to grow their business, free of EU competition rules - this has to be better than paying benefits to depressed coastal communities. - A 'Buy British', and other consumer education campaigns (even putting domestic science back on the school curriculum) will help. All common sense, really.

So you think Lee Rigbys killers, Steve Wright, Levi Bellfield, Pete Sutcliffe deserve a second chance. With today’s DNA mistakes are impossible plus why should us tax payers have to pay around £1000 a week to keep them in luxury with 24 hour round the clock health care

The Carrow Road scoreboard clock stopping on 90 minutes . Why can’t it carry on ? People watching on tv get the benefit of one . Forever looking at my stupid watch which never seems to change if we’re winning but whizzes round uncontrollably if we’re losing . Oh yeah , and Glenn Hoddle saying a pass is “ a cute little ball “ .

Absolute tosh. Some people definitely deserve it. Capitol punishment needs to be reintroduced, martyr or no martyr. I wonder if you share the same views towards paedophiles and child murderers? There should be zero tolerance with no second chances.

Well I'm glad this thread keeps you occupied during the winter months, Surfer. And I'm glad you recognise that Trump will never be convicted but it does beg the question why do you think that? I know why. Because the whole pony show is an attempt to divert America's attention away from the fact that the Democrats have no personalities and no policies that could possibly lead the US into the 21st century. So in order to cover up for their deficiencies and unelectability, the Democrats resort to playing political games instead of proving themselves fit for office. The parallels with Corbyn's Labour party are real. Either Biden or Sanders could be parachuted into the leader of the Labour party's role, and vice versa. The people have shown they deplore the virtue-signalling wokeism and identity politics of the Left. They want leaders who will make their country great again. We got ours and in November the US will re-elect theirs. People are fed-up with the game-playing.